2022 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 25, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium

Buffalo Bills

Miami DolphinsWinner

BUF -4 upsetU 54 ✓Bills closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Miami Dolphins 21–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:49, BUF +37% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:49BUF 17 — MIA 21BUF ball · 4th & 2BUF 58%

(1:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 6-I.McKenzie.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:49BUF +37% win prob(1:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 6-I.McKenzie.
Q4 · 0:18BUF +22% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 6-I.McKenzie to MIA 41 for 12 yards (6-M.Ingram) [91-E.Ogbah].
Q4 · 11:37MIA +22% win prob(11:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 17-J.Waddle to BUF 7 for 45 yards (3-D.Hamlin).
Q4 · 0:22BUF +19% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 13-G.Davis [91-E.Ogbah]. PENALTY on BUF-77-D.Quessenberry, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 43 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:06BUF Touchdown
(9:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-D.Singletary for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — MIA 0
Q1 · 3:39MIA Touchdown
(3:39) 2-C.Edmonds up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — MIA 7
Q2 · 12:03BUF Touchdown
(12:03) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 6-I.McKenzie for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 14 — MIA 7
Q2 · 6:51MIA Touchdown
(6:51) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 85-R.Cracraft for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 14 — MIA 14
Q3 · 3:43BUF Field goal
(3:43) 2-T.Bass 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 17 — MIA 14
Q4 · 10:08MIA Touchdown
(10:08) (Shotgun) 2-C.Edmonds up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 17 — MIA 21
Q4 · 1:37BUF Safety
(1:37) 4-T.Morstead punt is BLOCKED, Center-44-B.Ferguson, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. The punt was not blocked, it deflected off an offensive player.
Score after this play: BUF 19 — MIA 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Dolphins
Offensive plays	89	39
Total yards	497 (edge)	212
Yards per play	5.6 (edge)	5.4
Expected points added / play	0.11	0.13 (edge)
Success rate	52% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	79%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18	0.31 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15	-0.09 (edge)
Third downs	11/18 (edge)	3/8
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	30 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Bills outgained Dolphins 497–212 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

42/63, 400 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.2 expected points added · +4.3% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

13/18, 186 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.7 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

8 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

4.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Chase EdmondsRB

6 att, 21 yds, 2 TD

2.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

4/6 for 102 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

9/11 for 78 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 25	12	71	5:57	Touchdown +7
2	MIA	MIA 22	7	13	2:26	Punt
3	BUF	BUF 12	3	-5	1:24	Fumble
4	MIA	BUF 6	4	6	1:36	Touchdown +7
5	BUF	BUF 25	16	75	6:38	Touchdown +7
6	MIA	MIA 17	11	83	5:14	Touchdown +7
7	BUF	BUF 25	9	30	2:58	Punt
8	MIA	MIA 14	7	7	2:09	Punt
9	BUF	BUF 30	8	45	1:38	End of half
10	MIA	MIA 25	6	21	1:58	Punt
11	BUF	BUF 2	20	92	9:22	Field goal +3
12	MIA	MIA 24	5	8	1:40	Punt
13	BUF	BUF 20	6	60	2:51	Missed field goal
14	MIA	MIA 28	7	75	4:04	Touchdown +7
15	BUF	BUF 25	18	83	8:19	Turnover on downs
16	MIA	MIA 2	4	-1	0:13	Punt
17	BUF	BUF 23	8	46	1:33	End of game

6 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 92 scrimmage yards over 20 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	42/63	400	2	0	4	6.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Josh Allen	8	47	5.9	4.7
Zack Moss	4	46	11.5	0.9
Devin Singletary	9	13	1.4	-2.9
Isaiah McKenzie	1	6	6.0	0.6
James Cook	1	3	3.0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Devin Singletary	9	11	78	1	19%	6.3
Isaiah McKenzie	7	9	76	1	16%	4.5
Stefon Diggs	7	11	74	0	19%	-0.7
James Cook	4	5	37	0	9%	2.9
Gabe Davis	3	6	37	0	11%	0.4
Dawson Knox	4	4	25	0	7%	0.2
Reggie Gilliam	2	3	22	0	5%	1.7
Quintin Morris	2	2	22	0	4%	2.5
Jake Kumerow	2	2	14	0	4%	0.9
Jamison Crowder	1	3	9	0	5%	-0.7
Zack Moss	1	1	6	0	2%	1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Taron Johnson	3	3	0.0	0
Jaquan Johnson	3	2	0.0	0
Tremaine Edmunds	3	2	0.0	0
Kaiir Elam	2	2	0.0	0
Damar Hamlin	2	1	0.5	0
Gregory Rousseau	2	1	1.5	0
Matt Milano	3	0	0.0	1
Ja'Marcus Ingram	1	1	0.0	0
Dawson Knox	1	0	0.0	0
Cameron Lewis	1	0	0.0	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	13/18	186	1	0	1	8.7
Teddy Bridgewater	0/2	0	0	0	1	-1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chase Edmonds	6	21	3.5	2	2.1
Raheem Mostert	8	11	1.4	0	-3.7
Jaylen Waddle	1	9	9.0	0	0.7
Tua Tagovailoa	1	0	0.0	0	-0.3
Alec Ingold	1	0	0.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jaylen Waddle	4	6	102	0	30%	7.3
Tyreek Hill	2	4	33	0	20%	0.4
Durham Smythe	3	3	23	0	15%	-0.4
River Cracraft	1	1	11	1	5%	2.2
Chase Edmonds	1	1	6	0	5%	0.5
Mike Gesicki	1	1	6	0	5%	0.1
Trent Sherfield	1	1	5	0	5%	0.5
Raheem Mostert	0	2	0	0	10%	-1.3
Alec Ingold	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jerome Baker	7	4	0.5	1
Jevon Holland	8	1	1.5	2
Brandon Jones	5	3	0.0	1
Elandon Roberts	2	4	0.0	0
Duke Riley	3	2	0.0	0
Nik Needham	4	1	0.0	1
Kader Kohou	3	2	0.0	0
Xavien Howard	4	1	0.0	2
Christian Wilkins	3	1	0.0	0
Eric Rowe	4	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -4
Closing total: 54
BUF moneyline: -196
MIA moneyline: +175

Bills closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 54; the game landed 40 — under by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: BUF 6 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Mike McDaniel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.