For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Bills161 of 175 plays carry both curves
(1:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 6-I.McKenzie.
Swing +36.6 for DolphinsExpected points +3.01 for DolphinsThe model had Dolphins 13 points higher than the market did.play 159
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:49BUF +37% win prob(1:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 6-I.McKenzie.
4th · 0:18BUF +22% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 6-I.McKenzie to MIA 41 for 12 yards (6-M.Ingram) [91-E.Ogbah].
4th · 11:37MIA +22% win prob(11:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 17-J.Waddle to BUF 7 for 45 yards (3-D.Hamlin).
4th · 0:22BUF +19% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 13-G.Davis [91-E.Ogbah]. PENALTY on BUF-77-D.Quessenberry, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 43 - No Play.
4th · 7:48MIA +15% win prob(7:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-D.Singletary pushed ob at MIA 41 for 22 yards (8-J.Holland).
4th · 0:30MIA +13% win prob(:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 85-Q.Morris pushed ob at MIA 43 for 7 yards (21-E.Rowe).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chase Edmonds's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 10:08 left in the 4th put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
2nd6:51River Cracraft·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+714–14
3rd3:43Tyler Bass·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.Ferguson+317–14
4th10:08Chase Edmonds·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+717–21
4th1:37Bills·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+219–21
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryDolphins
Bills6–3Dolphins
497Total yards212
5.6Yards per play5.4
52%Success rate44%
61%Third-down rate38%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays3
30First downs12
4Sacks taken2
1Turnovers0
The read
Bills ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Dolphins, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Bills: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.13Dolphins: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.18Bills: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.31Dolphins: +0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.15Bills: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.09Dolphins: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 89 snaps at a 79% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 39 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Bills 6, Dolphins 3.
NoteBills outgained Dolphins 497-212 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
BUF's pass rate over expected, +14.1 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 4.5 points clear of the next team along.
89 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
MIA's early-down pass rate turned over: 71.4% in week 2 against 51.6% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points.
MIA's sack or hit rate turned over: 0.0% in week 2 against 15.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
70 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 26 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Dolphins15.7%
right on their number · +2.1 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 70 dropbacks
NoteBUF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 73.5%, 12.9 points above their season mean of 60.6% and 1.3 times their own 9.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass−34% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 6-I.McKenzie.
Q4 1:49 · Bills · 4th & goal at MIA 2 · gained nothing · -3.01 EP · −34.5% win probability
159 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps, manual charting on 145. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 87 yards from the BUF 2 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
44%
Yards
709
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR62+0.1679%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.2277%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20+0.1365%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.2550%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.260%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Bills6Dolphins0
Bills7Dolphins0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Dolphins 1
The period ended10 plays, from the Dolphins 22 to the Dolphins 35
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerEight
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Bills 12 to the Bills 14
Bills7Dolphins6
Bills7Dolphins7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 6 to the Bills 1
The period ended10 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Dolphins 37
2nd quarter46 plays
Bills13Dolphins7
Bills14Dolphins7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 8
Bills14Dolphins13
Bills14Dolphins14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 17 to the Bills 11
Punt10 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Dolphins 45
Punt9 plays, from the Dolphins 14 to the Dolphins 44
The period ended9 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Dolphins 34
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 47
Bills17Dolphins14
Field goal21 plays, from the Bills 2 to the Dolphins 6
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 24 to the Dolphins 32
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Dolphins 26
4th quarter50 plays
No good3 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 20
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Bills17Dolphins20
Bills17Dolphins21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 28 to the Bills 3
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Turnover on downs20 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Dolphins 1
Bills19Dolphins21
Punt6 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.8 seconds
The period ended10 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Dolphins 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -4
Closing total
54
Bills moneyline
-196
Dolphins moneyline
+175
Bills closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 54; the game landed 40 — under by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 89°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the east; mainly clear.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Bills 6 days · Dolphins 7 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Mike McDaniel
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 1:55
BUF +12% win prob
(1:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 14-S.Diggs (25-X.Howard).
4th · 8:55BUF +10% win prob(8:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 36 for -1 yards (sack split by 8-J.Holland and 55-J.Baker). BUF-75-G.Van Roten was injured during the play. PENALTY on BUF-17-J.Allen, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 36.
