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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 25, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 3
It turned at Q4 1:49, 4th and 2, on Josh Allen — 36.6 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Miami Dolphins 21–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:49, Dolphins +36.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:49 · 4th and 2
Josh Allen
Dolphins
(1:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 6-I.McKenzie.
36.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Dolphins won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Bills at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 11 of 18 on third down, against Dolphins at 3 of 8 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 3 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Dolphins at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 15.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
(1:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 6-I.McKenzie.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Chase Edmonds's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 10:08 left in the 4th put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Billssafetysafetytwo points, and the ball back+219–217 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Billscategory by categoryDolphins
Bills ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Dolphins, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 89 snaps at a 79% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 39 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Bills 6, Dolphins 3.
Bills outgained Dolphins 497-212 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's pass rate over expected, +14.1 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 4.5 points clear of the next team along.
89 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
MIA's early-down pass rate turned over: 71.4% in week 2 against 51.6% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points. · −0.7σ from their own normal
MIA's sack or hit rate turned over: 0.0% in week 2 against 15.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
70 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points. · +0.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 26 pts
Over Expected room →Bills14.1 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +8.0 vs their 6.1 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.03× that swing) · 89 snaps
Dolphins2.4 ptsright on their number · +0.2 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 39 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 34% to 85%
Tendencies room →Bills73.5%leaned — passed early · +12.9 vs their 60.6%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+1.34× that swing) · 68 early downs
Dolphins51.6%inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 57.7%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 31 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 67%
Tendencies room →Bills11.4%leaned — dropped back clean · −8.4 vs their 19.8%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 70 dropbacks
Dolphins27.3%right on their number · −4.7 vs their 32.0%, and they swing ±13.7 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -50% to 174%
Fourth Down room →Bills75.0%right on their number · +13.3 vs their 61.7%, and they swing ±43.9 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Dolphins—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.9%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16% to 69%
Tendencies room →Bills4.5%inside their normal wobble · −11.9 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Dolphins31.4%right on their number · −0.3 vs their 31.7%, and they swing ±14.5 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 70 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 32%
Tendencies room →Bills9.1%inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Dolphins15.7%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 70 dropbacks
BUF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 73.5%, 12.9 points above their season mean of 60.6% and 1.3 times their own 9.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
42/63, 400 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
6.2 expected points added · +4.3% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
13/18, 186 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
8.7 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected
Receiving · BUF
9/11 for 78 yds, 1 TD
19% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Chase Edmonds banked 6.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 26.7 | −19.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 42/63, 400 yd, 2 TD · 8 car, 47 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Committee Back | 24.1 | −5.0 | 73% | 73% | 19% | 2% | 9 car, 13 yd · 9/11, 78 yd, 1 TD |
| Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational Receiver | 21.2 | +2.0 | 51% | 55% | 16% | 18% | 1 car, 6 yd · 7/9, 76 yd, 1 TD |
| Chase EdmondsRB | 15.7 | +6.6 | 44% | 41% | 5% | 1% | 6 car, 21 yd, 2 TD · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.1 | +2.8 | 74% | 73% | 30% | 58% | 1 car, 9 yd · 4/6, 102 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Featured Receiver | 14.4 | −8.1 | 70% | 72% | 19% | 25% | 7/11, 74 yd |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 11.4 | +2.3 | 93% | — | 0% | — | 13/18, 186 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 0 yd |
| River CracraftWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | +4.7 | 21% | 27% | 5% | 6% | 1/1, 11 yd, 1 TD |
| James CookRB | 8.0 | −0.5 | 12% | 11% | 9% | 2% | 1 car, 3 yd · 4/5, 37 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 6.7 | −5.0 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.5 | +0.6 | 71% | 69% | 7% | 2% | 4/4, 25 yd |
| Zack MossRB | 6.2 | +2.4 | 17% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 4 car, 46 yd · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | +0.9 | 74% | 64% | 15% | 4% | 3/3, 23 yd |
| Tyreek HillWR · Featured Receiver | 5.3 | −1.9 | 86% | 91% | 20% | 19% | 2/4, 33 yd |
| Reggie GilliamRB | 4.2 | −2.0 | 22% | 18% | 5% | 9% | 2/3, 22 yd |
| Quintin MorrisTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | +0.8 | 32% | 30% | 4% | 5% | 2/2, 22 yd |
| Jake KumerowWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | +0.5 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jamison CrowderWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −2.6 | 49% | 48% | 5% | 15% | 1/3, 9 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.3 | 40% | 36% | 5% | 0% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −0.8 | 63% | 77% | 5% | 1% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Raheem MostertRB · Committee Back | 1.1 | −6.7 | 56% | 59% | 10% | 1% | 8 car, 11 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Teddy BridgewaterQB | 0.0 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Alec IngoldRB | 0.0 | −5.5 | 28% | 23% | 5% | 10% | 1 car, 0 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 6-I.McKenzie.
Q4 1:49 · Bills · 4th & goal at MIA 2 · gained nothing · -3.01 EP · −34.5% win probability
159 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 175 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps, manual charting on 145. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 87 yards from the BUF 2 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Bills6
Dolphins0Bills7Dolphins0How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Bills7Dolphins6Bills7Dolphins7Bills13Dolphins7Bills14Dolphins7Bills14Dolphins13Bills14Dolphins14Bills17Dolphins14How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Bills17Dolphins20Bills17Dolphins21How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
Bills19Dolphins21How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bills at Dolphins, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 42/63 | 400 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +6.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 | +4.7 |
| Zack Moss | 4 | 46 | 11.5 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Devin Singletary |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 9 | 11 | 78 | 1 | 19% | +6.3 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 7 | 9 | 76 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taron Johnson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaquan Johnson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tremaine Edmunds |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 13/18 | 186 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +8.7 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 0/2 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_03_BUF_MIA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 54; the game landed 40 — under by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 9 |
| 13 |
| 1.4 |
| 0 |
| −2.9 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| James Cook | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| 16% |
| +4.5 |
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 11 | 74 | 0 | 19% | −0.7 |
| James Cook | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 9% | +2.9 |
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 6 | 37 | 0 | 11% | +0.4 |
| Dawson Knox | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 7% | +0.2 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 5% | +1.7 |
| Quintin Morris | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 4% | +2.5 |
| Jake Kumerow | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 4% | +0.9 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 5% | −0.7 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2% | +1.0 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kaiir Elam | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damar Hamlin | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Milano | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ja'Marcus Ingram | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Lewis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| −1.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Edmonds | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 2 | +2.1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 8 | 11 | 1.4 | 0 | −3.7 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Alec Ingold | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 6 | 102 | 0 | 30% | +7.3 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 20% | +0.4 |
| Durham Smythe | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 15% | −0.4 |
| River Cracraft | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 5% | +2.2 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5% | +0.5 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5% | +0.1 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5% | +0.5 |
| Raheem Mostert | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −1.3 |
| Alec Ingold | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Baker | 7 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Jevon Holland | 8 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 |
| Brandon Jones | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Elandon Roberts | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duke Riley | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nik Needham | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kader Kohou | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavien Howard | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Christian Wilkins | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Rowe | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
