For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Bengals176 of 188 plays carry both curves
(:05) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN [29-L.Joyner].
Swing −14.1 for JetsExpected points −6.43 for JetsThe model had Jets 23 points higher than the market did.play 44
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 0:05NYJ +14% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN [29-L.Joyner].
1st · 3:45NYJ +7% win prob(3:45) 19-J.Flacco pass deep right to 8-E.Moore ran ob at CIN 27 for 16 yards (22-C.Awuzie).
1st · 11:20NYJ +6% win prob(11:20) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 83-T.Boyd to NYJ 4 for 22 yards (57-C.Mosley; 29-L.Joyner).
1st · 13:47NYJ +6% win prob(13:47) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 85-T.Higgins to NYJ 42 for 19 yards (4-D.Reed).
1st · 0:59NYJ +6% win prob(:59) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 83-T.Boyd (29-L.Joyner). PENALTY on NYJ-91-J.Franklin-Myers, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 26 - No Play.
1st · 3:54CIN +5% win prob(3:54) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase to CIN 41 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by NYJ-57-C.Mosley at CIN 43. 57-C.Mosley to CIN 43 for no gain (1-J.Chase).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Samaje Perine's 12-yard touchdown catch with 9:45 left in the 1st put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:45Samaje Perine·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe BurrowLead never changed again+77–0
1st5:08Greg Zuerlein·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+37–3
1st1:52Greg Zuerlein·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+37–6
1st0:05Tyler Boyd·56-yd TD catch56-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+714–6
2nd7:50Evan McPherson·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Adomitis+317–6
2nd5:31Evan McPherson·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Adomitis+320–6
2nd0:03Greg Zuerlein·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+320–9
3rd12:05Ja'Marr Chase·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+727–9
3rd0:45Greg Zuerlein·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+327–12
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryJets
Bengals8–1Jets
331Total yards328
5.2Yards per play4.3
45%Success rate37%
50%Third-down rate39%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
3Explosive plays4
18First downs17
2Sacks taken4
1Turnovers4
The read
Bengals ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Bengals: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.32Jets: −0.32 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.31Bengals: +0.31 expected points added per play
−0.42Jets: −0.42 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.33Bengals: −0.33 expected points added per play
−0.05Jets: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 64 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Jets’s 76 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 5, Jets 2.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.32.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's blitz rate sent turned over: 9.4% in week 2 against 23.1% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 28 pts
right on their number · +1.1 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Jets23.1%
right on their number · +3.5 vs their 19.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteCIN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 28.2%, 15.5 points above their season mean of 12.7% and 2.1 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
67Cordell VolsonG · Every snap100%68 snaps
—Jonah WilliamsT · Every snap100%68 snaps
65Alex CappaG · Every snap100%68 snaps
64Ted KarrasC · Every snap100%68 snaps
71La'el CollinsT · Every snap100%68 snaps
9Joe BurrowQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
1Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Full-time87%59 snaps
85Tee HigginsWR · Heavy rotation68%46 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Heavy rotation68%46 snaps
28Joe MixonRB · Heavy rotation66%45 snaps
84Mitchell WilcoxTE · Heavy rotation57%39 snaps
88Hayden HurstTE · Rotational38%26 snaps
86Devin AsiasiTE · Rotational35%24 snaps
34Samaje PerineRB · Rotational34%23 snaps
77Hakeem AdenijiG · Situational19%13 snaps
80Mike ThomasWR · Situational13%9 snaps
17Stanley MorganWR · Situational9%6 snaps
25Chris EvansRB · Situational3%2 snaps
11Trent TaylorWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Jay TufeleDTD'Ante SmithGJackson CarmanGGermaine PrattOLBTrayveon WilliamsRBDrew SampleTE
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass+22% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:05) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN [29-L.Joyner].
Q1 0:05 · Bengals · 3rd & 7 at CIN 44 · gained 56 · +6.43 EP · +21.9% win probability
174 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 188 snaps, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 75 yards from the CIN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
37%
Yards
658
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR64-0.3075%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.0173%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR13-0.088%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.1756%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.7367%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Jets0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
Bengals6Jets0
Bengals7Jets0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Jets 4
Bengals7Jets3
Field goal11 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Bengals 30
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 38
Bengals7Jets6
Field goal5 plays, from the Bengals 43 to the Bengals 22
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Bengals13Jets6
Bengals14Jets6
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 44
2nd quarter58 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Jets 15 to midfield
Bengals17Jets6
Field goal7 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Jets 4
Intercepted5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 38
Bengals20Jets6
Field goal5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 27
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 34 to the Bengals 35
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 19 to the Jets 36
The period ended5 plays
Bengals20Jets9
Field goal8 plays, from the Bengals 47 to the Bengals 34
3rd quarter45 plays
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 31
Bengals26Jets9
Bengals27Jets9
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Jets 5
Drive ended5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Bengals 46
Turnover on downs3 plays
The period ended13 plays, from the Bengals 41 to the Jets 19
Bengals27Jets12
Field goal12 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Bengals 25
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter39 plays
Punt3 plays
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Jets 36 to the Bengals 14
No good14 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Jets 23
Intercepted7 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Bengals 17
The period ended1 play
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bengals -6.5
Closing total
46
Bengals moneyline
-247
Jets moneyline
+220
Bengals closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 15.
Total closed 46; the game landed 39 — under by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 68°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the south; overcast.
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
Bengals 7 days · Jets 7 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Robert Saleh
1st · 9:45NYJ +5% win prob(9:45) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 34-S.Perine for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 10:13NYJ +5% win prob(10:13) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 85-T.Higgins to NYJ 30 for 45 yards (1-A.Gardner; 29-L.Joyner). CIN-85-T.Higgins was injured during the play. PENALTY on NYJ-29-L.Joyner, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 30.
