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Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Cowboys172 of 182 plays carry both curves
(10:27) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to NYG 37 for 4 yards (24-D.Belton).
Swing −11.1 for GiantsExpected points −2.95 for GiantsThe model had Giants 7 points higher than the market did.play 140
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 10:27NYG +11% win prob(10:27) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to NYG 37 for 4 yards (24-D.Belton).
4th · 9:21NYG +11% win prob(9:21) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to NYG 1 for 26 yards (37-F.Moreau, 20-J.Love).
3rd · 2:59NYG +10% win prob(2:59) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 89-P.Hendershot to NYG 18 for 29 yards (29-X.McKinney).
3rd · 12:12NYG +10% win prob(12:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones scrambles up the middle to DAL 38 for 17 yards (2-J.Lewis).
3rd · 5:41NYG +10% win prob(5:41) (No Huddle) 26-S.Barkley right guard for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:11NYG +10% win prob(11:11) 20-T.Pollard left tackle to NYG 17 for 46 yards (22-A.Jackson; 28-C.Flott).
2nd · 5:10
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
CeeDee Lamb's 1-yard touchdown catch with 8:34 left in the 4th put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st2:12Brett Maher·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+33–0
2nd11:21Graham Gano·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+33–3
2nd9:13Brett Maher·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+36–3
3rd9:06Graham Gano·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+36–6
4th8:34CeeDee Lamb·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Cooper Rushfrom Cooper RushLead never changed again+720–13
4th6:02Brett Maher·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+323–13
4th3:42Graham Gano·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+323–16
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryGiants
Cowboys8–1Giants
393Total yards336
6.7Yards per play5.0
49%Success rate45%
38%Third-down rate27%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
7Explosive plays8
21First downs18
0Sacks taken5
0Turnovers1
The read
Cowboys ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Cowboys: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.07Giants: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.11Cowboys: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.14Giants: −0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.26Cowboys: +0.26 expected points added per play
+0.12Giants: +0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 59 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Giants’s 67 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 4, Giants 1.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's play-action rate, 48.4%, sat 23.7 points above their season number of 24.7% — they faked the run by 2.1 times their own 11.5-point weekly swing.
A 2.8-swing turn from week 2.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · +7.7 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Giants6.5%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.4 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.23× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteDAL's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 48.4%, 23.7 points above their season mean of 24.7% and 2.1 times their own 11.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Rush pass+15% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(10:27) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to NYG 37 for 4 yards (24-D.Belton).
Q4 10:27 · Cowboys · 4th & 4 at NYG 41 · gained 4 · +2.95 EP · +15.3% win probability
171 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 89 yards from the DAL 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
43%
Yards
727
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.2277%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.0762%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.1653%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.3729%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.1929%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Giants 44
No good12 plays, from the Giants 12 to the Cowboys 29
Cowboys3Giants0
Field goal11 plays, from the Cowboys 37 to the Giants 3
The period ended7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 42
2nd quarter49 plays
Cowboys3Giants3
Field goal9 plays, from the Giants 45 to the Cowboys 24
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Cowboys6Giants3
Field goal6 plays, from the Cowboys 37 to the Giants 10
Punt6 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
Punt13 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Giants 40
The period ended10 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Cowboys 47
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Cowboys6Giants6
Field goal13 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cowboys 33
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Cowboys6Giants12
Cowboys6Giants13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Cowboys 36
Cowboys12Giants13
Cowboys13Giants13
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Giants 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 46
4th quarter54 plays
Punt3 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.8 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Cowboys19Giants13
Cowboys20Giants13
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cowboys 11 to the Giants 1
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 27
Cowboys23Giants13
Field goal4 plays, from the Giants 35 to the Giants 26
Cowboys23Giants16
Field goal11 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cowboys 22
Punt9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 46
Intercepted4 plays, from the Giants 9 to the Giants 21
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Giants -1
Closing total
38.5
Cowboys moneyline
+109
Giants moneyline
-120
Giants closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 39 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 64°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 5 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Cowboys 8 days · Giants 8 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Brian Daboll
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
NYG +9% win prob
(5:10) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott left end to DAL 48 for 27 yards (53-O.Ximines, 20-J.Love).
3rd · 13:43NYG +7% win prob(13:43) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right to 3-S.Shepard. PENALTY on DAL-2-J.Lewis, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 21 - No Play.
