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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Lions181 of 194 plays carry both curves
(:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 17-K.Osborn for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-A.McNeill].
Swing +29.1 for VikingsExpected points +4.64 for VikingsThe model had Lions 7 points higher than the market did.play 184
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:50MIN +29% win prob(:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 17-K.Osborn for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-A.McNeill].
4th · 1:14DET +27% win prob(1:14) 19-A.Seibert 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
4th · 1:06MIN +26% win prob(1:06) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 17-K.Osborn to DET 28 for 28 yards (23-M.Hughes).
3rd · 4:51DET +13% win prob(4:51) 1-G.Joseph 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
4th · 3:35DET +13% win prob(3:35) 30-Ja.Williams right tackle to MIN 30 for no gain (99-D.Hunter, 54-E.Kendricks).
3rd · 0:54DET +12% win prob(:54) 4-D.Cook left tackle to DET 46 for 2 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by DET-5-D.Elliott at DET 42. MIN-4-D.Cook was injured during the play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
K.J. Osborn's 28-yard touchdown catch with 0:50 left in the 4th put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Vikings ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Lions, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Lions: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.02Vikings: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Lions: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.02Vikings: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Lions: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.01Vikings: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 75 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Vikings’s 65 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Lions 3, Vikings 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIN's sack or hit rate, 4.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 0.1 points clear of the next team along.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points.
MIN's pass rate over expected turned over: +10.7 pts in week 2 against −3.2 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
MIN's play-action rate turned over: 10.0% in week 2 against 36.6% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
MIN's early-down pass rate turned over: 83.0% in week 2 against 55.6% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +2.4 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Vikings4.8%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.1 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteMIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 4.8%, 7.1 points below their season mean of 11.8% and 1.3 times their own 5.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass+34% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 17-K.Osborn for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-A.McNeill].
Q4 0:50 · Vikings · 1st & 10 at DET 28 · gained 28 · +4.64 EP · +34.1% win probability
179 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 194 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 194 snaps, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 80 yards from the MIN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
194 of 194 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
194
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
44%
Yards
789
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.2158%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.0465%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.0755%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.1656%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-1.1429%
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR6+0.4750%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.0660%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
194 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
194 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
No good8 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Vikings 30
No good7 plays, from the Vikings 38 to the Lions 38
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Lions6Vikings0
Lions7Vikings0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 46 to the Vikings 2
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 19 to the Vikings 35
The period ended11 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Vikings 35
2nd quarter53 plays
Lions13Vikings0
Lions14Vikings0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Vikings 31 to the Vikings 5
Lions14Vikings6
Lions14Vikings7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Lions 1
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Lions 14 to the Lions 49
Lions14Vikings13
Lions14Vikings14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Lions 49 to the Lions 4
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 42
The period ended7 plays, from the Vikings 8 to the Lions 44
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Vikings 28
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Lions17Vikings14
Field goal10 plays, from the Lions 32 to the Vikings 22
No good10 plays, from the Vikings 23 to the Lions 36
Lions23Vikings14
Lions24Vikings14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Lions 46 to the Vikings 13
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Vikings 36 to the Lions 48
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter61 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Vikings 33
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 9 to the Lions 27
Lions24Vikings20
Lions24Vikings21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 43 to the Lions 6
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
The period ended13 plays, from the Lions 22 to the Vikings 30
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Vikings 47
The period ended9 plays, from the Vikings 47 to the Vikings 36
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Lions24Vikings27
Lions24Vikings28
Touchdown5 plays, from the Vikings 44 to the Lions 28
Intercepted6 plays, from the Lions 25 to midfield
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
