For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending.mdto eligible URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown.
2022 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 25, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium
14
12
Green Bay Packers 14–12 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:14, GB +19% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 12-T.Brady pass to 17-R.Gage is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
How the points landed
(9:10) 3-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: GB 0 — TB 3(3:07) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-R.Doubs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 7 — TB 3(8:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 13-A.Lazard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 14 — TB 3(6:27) 3-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: GB 14 — TB 6(:18) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 17-R.Gage for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: GB 14 — TB 12Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Packers | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 60 | 59 |
| Total yards | 316 (edge) | 286 |
| Yards per play | 5.3 (edge) | 4.8 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.10 (edge) | -0.20 |
| Success rate | 40% | 41% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 60% | 78% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.02 (edge) | -0.17 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.28 (edge) | -0.33 |
| Third downs | 6/15 (edge) | 2/11 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 (edge) | 2 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 14 | 18 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 3 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
31/42, 271 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
0.1 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected
Passing · GB
27/35, 255 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
4.5 expected points added · +10.9% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | TB 25 | 11 | 48 | 5:55 | Field goal +3 | |
| 2 | GB | GB 25 | 12 | 75 | 6:04 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 3 | TB | TB 23 | 5 | 14 | 2:28 | Punt | |
| 4 | GB | GB 29 | 13 | 71 | 6:49 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 5 | TB | TB 25 | 5 | 2 | 2:47 | Punt | |
| 6 | GB | GB 38 | 6 | 60 | 3:55 | Fumble | |
| 7 | TB | TB 20 | 6 | 49 | 1:21 | Fumble | |
| 8 | GB | GB 27 | 4 | 8 | 0:35 | Punt | |
| 9 | TB | TB 13 | 1 | 0 | 0:06 | End of half | |
| 10 | GB | GB 25 | 6 | 17 | 2:14 | Punt | |
| 11 | TB | TB 21 | 5 | 16 | 1:28 | Fumble | |
| 12 | GB | 50 | 4 | 6 | 1:18 | Punt | |
| 13 | TB | TB 2 | 4 | 0 | 0:34 | Punt | |
| 14 | GB | GB 35 | 3 | 5 | 1:34 | Interception | |
| 15 | TB | GB 47 | 5 | 20 | 1:30 | Field goal +3 | |
| 16 | GB | GB 25 | 6 | 18 | 2:53 | Punt | |
| 17 | TB | TB 11 | 6 | 19 | 2:54 | Punt | |
| 18 | GB | GB 44 | 4 | 6 | 2:18 | Punt | |
| 19 | TB | TB 14 | 4 | 8 | 1:59 | Punt | |
| 20 | GB | GB 20 | 5 | 13 | 2:38 | Punt | |
| 21 | TB | TB 25 | 5 | 28 | 2:43 | Punt | |
| 22 | GB | GB 14 | 9 | 37 | 2:53 | Punt | |
| 23 | TB | TB 11 | 14 | 82 | 2:50 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 24 | GB | TB 45 | 2 | 0 | 0:14 | End of game |
5 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 82 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 27/35 | 255 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 0 | -3.7 |
| A.J. Dillon | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 0 | -3.1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 8 | 8 | 73 | 1 | 24% | 5.3 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 2 | 57 | 0 | 6% | 4.5 |
| Allen Lazard | 4 | 6 | 45 | 1 | 18% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Vondre Campbell | 8 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rasul Douglas | 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Keisean Nixon | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quay Walker |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 31/42 | 271 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 26 — under by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
| 5.1 |
| Robert Tonyan | 6 | 7 | 37 | 0 | 21% | -2.2 |
| Tyler Davis | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 6% | 1.0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 12% | -6.2 |
| A.J. Dillon | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 9% | -2.6 |
| Juwann Winfree | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -2.3 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kenny Clark | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashan Gary | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Amos | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Lowry | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rudy Ford | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -2.9 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.4 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Gage | 12 | 13 | 87 | 1 | 33% | -1.0 |
| Cameron Brate | 5 | 6 | 52 | 0 | 15% | 1.3 |
| Breshad Perriman | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 10% | -2.6 |
| Leonard Fournette | 5 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 15% | 0.3 |
| Jaelon Darden | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 3% | 1.4 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | 0.8 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 10% | -0.1 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 13% | -1.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Edwards | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lavonte David | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin White | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquil Barrett | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rakeem Nunez-Roches | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keanu Neal | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| William Gholston | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
