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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 25, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 3
It turned at Q4 0:14, on Russell Gage — 19.2 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Green Bay Packers 14–12 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:14, Packers +19.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:14
Russell Gage
Packers
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 12-T.Brady pass to 17-R.Gage is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
19.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Packers won this one — 6 of 15 on third down, against Buccaneers at 2 of 11 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 2 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.02 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at -0.17 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Packers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Buccaneers at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 12-T.Brady pass to 17-R.Gage is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Romeo Doubs's 5-yard touchdown catch with 3:07 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Romeo Doubs5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron RodgersLead never changed again+77–35 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Packerscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Packers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 60 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 59 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Packers 3, Buccaneers 2.
Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 22 team-games charted in week 3 — 20.0 points clear of the next team along.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.4 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
TB's blitz rate sent turned over: 42.6% in week 2 against 16.7% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
TB's play-action rate turned over: 5.7% in week 2 against 22.2% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
GB's sack or hit rate turned over: 31.3% in week 2 against 8.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
TB's early-down pass rate turned over: 46.7% in week 2 against 76.1% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.3 points. · +0.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Packers0.7 ptsright on their number · +4.1 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 60 snaps
Buccaneers4.2 ptsright on their number · −0.0 vs their 4.2 pts, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.00× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 99%
Tendencies room →Packers48.9%right on their number · −4.1 vs their 53.0%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 45 early downs
Buccaneers76.1%inside their normal wobble · +12.1 vs their 64.0%, and they swing ±13.3 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 55%
Tendencies room →Packers36.1%inside their normal wobble · +9.3 vs their 26.8%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+0.86× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Buccaneers22.2%leaned — faked the run · +9.1 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+1.17× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18% to 107%
Fourth Down room →Packers0.0%leaned — took the kick · −44.3 vs their 44.3%, and they swing ±24.4 week to week (−1.81× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Buccaneers33.3%right on their number · −8.7 vs their 42.0%, and they swing ±21.3 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 57%
Tendencies room →Packers22.2%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Buccaneers16.7%leaned — sat back · −16.3 vs their 32.9%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−1.82× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 37%
Tendencies room →Packers8.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.0 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Buccaneers16.7%right on their number · +0.9 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
TB's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 16.7%, 16.3 points below their season mean of 32.9% and 1.8 times their own 9.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
31/42, 271 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
0.1 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected
Passing · GB
27/35, 255 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
4.5 expected points added · +10.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Romeo Doubs banked 8.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell GageWR · Alpha Receiver | 24.7 | +3.7 | 80% | 85% | 33% | 26% | 12/13, 87 yd, 1 TD |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Featured Receiver | 21.3 | +8.3 | 89% | 94% | 24% | 14% | 8/8, 73 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 16.1 | +3.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/35, 255 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Tom BradyQB · Starter QB | 14.7 | −1.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 31/42, 271 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Allen LazardWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.5 | +4.2 | 90% | 92% | 18% | 52% | 4/6, 45 yd, 1 TD |
| Leonard FournetteRB · Bell Cow Back | 12.0 | −4.0 | 91% | 89% | 15% | 0% | 12 car, 35 yd · 5/6, 35 yd |
| Cameron BrateTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.2 | −0.9 | 89% | 87% | 15% | 17% | 5/6, 52 yd |
| Robert TonyanTE · Featured Receiver | 9.7 | −0.3 | 58% | 64% | 21% | 7% | 6/7, 37 yd |
| Randall CobbWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | +4.9 | 40% | 50% | 6% | 6% | 2/2, 57 yd |
| A.J. DillonRB · Committee Back | 5.8 | −4.1 | 53% | 42% | 9% | 0% | 12 car, 32 yd · 2/3, 6 yd |
| Aaron JonesRB · Committee Back | 5.7 | −7.8 | 63% | 69% | 12% | 1% | 12 car, 36 yd · 3/4, 11 yd |
| Breshad PerrimanWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | −1.4 | 72% | 67% | 10% | 24% | 1 car, 0 yd · 3/4, 44 yd |
| Tyler DavisTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | +1.9 | 31% | 22% | 6% | 2% | 2/2, 26 yd |
| Cole BeasleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −1.3 | 14% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 3/4, 12 yd |
| Jaelon DardenWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +1.7 | 28% | 35% | 3% | 7% | 1/1, 25 yd |
| Kyle RudolphTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.3 | 14% | 11% | 3% | 5% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Scott MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −6.1 | 80% | 83% | 13% | 18% | 1/5, 4 yd |
| Juwann WinfreeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.2 | 21% | 19% | 6% | 22% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Amari RodgersWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Rachaad WhiteRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ko KieftTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 17% | 15% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 12-T.Brady pass to 17-R.Gage is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q4 0:14 · Buccaneers · — at GB 7 · gained nothing · -0.95 EP · −19.5% win probability
156 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 170 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, manual charting on 145. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 89 yards from the TB 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Packers0
Buccaneers3Packers6Buccaneers3Packers7Buccaneers3Packers13Buccaneers3Packers14Buccaneers3Packers14Buccaneers6How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Packers14Buccaneers12Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Packers at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 27/35 | 255 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +4.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 0 | −3.7 |
| A.J. Dillon | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 0 | −3.1 |
| Aaron Rodgers |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 8 | 8 | 73 | 1 | 24% | +5.3 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 2 | 57 | 0 | 6% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Vondre Campbell | 8 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rasul Douglas | 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Keisean Nixon |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 31/42 | 271 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +0.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_03_GB_TB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 26 — under by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| -1 |
| -1.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.8 |
| +4.5 |
| Allen Lazard | 4 | 6 | 45 | 1 | 18% | +5.1 |
| Robert Tonyan | 6 | 7 | 37 | 0 | 21% | −2.2 |
| Tyler Davis | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 6% | +1.0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 12% | −6.2 |
| A.J. Dillon | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 9% | −2.6 |
| Juwann Winfree | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −2.3 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Quay Walker | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Clark | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashan Gary | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Amos | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Lowry | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rudy Ford | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Gage | 12 | 13 | 87 | 1 | 33% | −1.0 |
| Cameron Brate | 5 | 6 | 52 | 0 | 15% | +1.3 |
| Breshad Perriman | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 10% | −2.6 |
| Leonard Fournette | 5 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 15% | +0.3 |
| Jaelon Darden | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 3% | +1.4 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 10% | −0.1 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 13% | −1.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Edwards | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lavonte David | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin White | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquil Barrett | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rakeem Nunez-Roches | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keanu Neal | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| William Gholston | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
