For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2022 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 25, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium

Green Bay PackersWinner

14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

12

TB -1 upsetU 41.5 ✓

Green Bay Packers 14–12 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:14, GB +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TB ↑GB ↓
Q4 · 0:14GB 14 — TB 12TB ballGB 71%

TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 12-T.Brady pass to 17-R.Gage is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:14GB +19% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 12-T.Brady pass to 17-R.Gage is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
  2. Q4 · 0:18TB +16% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 17-R.Gage for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 2:09GB +10% win prob(2:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 33-A.Jones to TB 2 for 3 yards (50-V.Vea; 54-L.David). FUMBLES (50-V.Vea), RECOVERED by TB-26-L.Ryan at TB 0. Touchback.
  4. Q2 · 0:51GB +9% win prob(:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 16-B.Perriman to GB 26 for 14 yards (7-Q.Walker; 31-A.Amos). FUMBLES (7-Q.Walker), RECOVERED by GB-26-D.Savage at GB 25. 26-D.Savage to GB 27 for 2 yards (7-L.Fournette).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:10TB Field goal

    (9:10) 3-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: GB 0 — TB 3
  2. Q1 · 3:07GB Touchdown

    (3:07) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-R.Doubs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 7 — TB 3
  3. Q2 · 8:47GB Touchdown

    (8:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 13-A.Lazard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 14 — TB 3
  4. Q3 · 6:27TB Field goal

    (6:27) 3-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: GB 14 — TB 6
  5. Q4 · 0:18TB Touchdown

    (:18) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 17-R.Gage for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: GB 14 — TB 12

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersBuccaneers
Offensive plays6059
Total yards316 (edge)286
Yards per play5.3 (edge)4.8
Expected points added / play-0.10 (edge)-0.20
Success rate40%41% (edge)
Dropback rate60%78%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.02 (edge)-0.17
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.28 (edge)-0.33
Third downs6/15 (edge)2/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)5 (edge)2
First downs gained on snaps1418 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)3
Turnovers22

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

31/42, 271 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

0.1 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

27/35, 255 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

4.5 expected points added · +10.9% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

12 att, 36 yds, 0 TD

-3.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

12 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

-2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Russell GageWR

12/13 for 87 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · -1.0 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Romeo DoubsWR

8/8 for 73 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TBTB 2511485:55Field goal +3
2GBGB 2512756:04Touchdown +7
3TBTB 235142:28Punt
4GBGB 2913716:49Touchdown +7
5TBTB 25522:47Punt
6GBGB 386603:55Fumble
7TBTB 206491:21Fumble
8GBGB 27480:35Punt
9TBTB 13100:06End of half
10GBGB 256172:14Punt
11TBTB 215161:28Fumble
12GB50461:18Punt
13TBTB 2400:34Punt
14GBGB 35351:34Interception
15TBGB 475201:30Field goal +3
16GBGB 256182:53Punt
17TBTB 116192:54Punt
18GBGB 44462:18Punt
19TBTB 14481:59Punt
20GBGB 205132:38Punt
21TBTB 255282:43Punt
22GBGB 149372:53Punt
23TBTB 1114822:50Touchdown +6
24GBTB 45200:14End of game

5 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 82 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers27/352552114.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones12363.00-3.7
A.J. Dillon12322.70-3.1
Aaron Rodgers1-1-1.00-0.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Romeo Doubs8873124%5.3
Randall Cobb225706%4.5
Allen Lazard4645118%5.1
Robert Tonyan6737021%-2.2
Tyler Davis222606%1.0
Aaron Jones3411012%-6.2
A.J. Dillon23609%-2.6
Juwann Winfree02006%-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
De'Vondre Campbell860.001
Rasul Douglas800.002
Keisean Nixon610.000
Quay Walker220.000
Kenny Clark312.000
Rashan Gary211.000
Adrian Amos120.000
Dean Lowry120.000
Allen Lazard100.000
Rudy Ford100.000

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tom Brady31/422711030.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Leonard Fournette12352.90-2.9
Breshad Perriman100.00-1.4
Tom Brady1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Russell Gage121387133%-1.0
Cameron Brate5652015%1.3
Breshad Perriman3444010%-2.6
Leonard Fournette5635015%0.3
Jaelon Darden112503%1.4
Kyle Rudolph111203%0.8
Cole Beasley3412010%-0.1
Scott Miller154013%-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Mike Edwards740.000
Lavonte David340.000
Antoine Winfield600.000
Carlton Davis320.000
Jamel Dean410.000
Devin White320.000
Shaquil Barrett320.000
Rakeem Nunez-Roches110.000
Keanu Neal200.000
William Gholston110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
TB -1
Closing total
41.5
GB moneyline
+112
TB moneyline
-123

Buccaneers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 26 — under by 15.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
GB 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Todd Bowles