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2022 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 25, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
PackersGreen Bay14
BY 2final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay12
Green Bay Packers 14 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12. Final.
Buccaneers -1 upset
The verdict · 2022 Week 3
Green Bay Packers 14, Buccaneers 12 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:14, on Russell Gage — 19.2 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:14
Russell Gage
Packers
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 12-T.Brady pass to 17-R.Gage is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
U 41.5 ✓
Buccaneers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Green Bay Packers 14–12 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:14, Packers +19.2% win probability on one snap.
19.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Aaron JonesBuccaneersQ2 2:09(2:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 33-A.Jones to TB 2 for 3 yards (50-V.Vea; 54-L.David). FUMBLES (50-V.Vea), RECOVERED by TB-26-L.Ryan at TB 0. Touchback.
10.0pts
Russell GageBuccaneersQ4 0:18(:18) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 17-R.Gage for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
15.6pts
What separated them
Third down
Packers won this one — 6 of 15 on third down, against Buccaneers at 2 of 11 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 2 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.02 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at -0.17 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Packers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Buccaneers at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Packers158 of 170 plays carry both curves
Q4 · 0:14Packers 14 — Buccaneers 12TB ballGB 71%
Packers 71%Buccaneers 29%
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 12-T.Brady pass to 17-R.Gage is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Swing −19.2 for BuccaneersExpected points −0.95 for BuccaneersModel and market agree here.play 167
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:14GB +19% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 12-T.Brady pass to 17-R.Gage is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
4th · 0:18TB +16% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 17-R.Gage for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:09GB +10% win prob(2:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 33-A.Jones to TB 2 for 3 yards (50-V.Vea; 54-L.David). FUMBLES (50-V.Vea), RECOVERED by TB-26-L.Ryan at TB 0. Touchback.
2nd · 0:51GB +9% win prob(:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 16-B.Perriman to GB 26 for 14 yards (7-Q.Walker; 31-A.Amos). FUMBLES (7-Q.Walker), RECOVERED by GB-26-D.Savage at GB 25. 26-D.Savage to GB 27 for 2 yards (7-L.Fournette).
3rd · 11:25GB +8% win prob(11:25) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 17-R.Gage to GB 49 for 5 yards (25-K.Nixon). FUMBLES (25-K.Nixon), RECOVERED by GB-90-J.Reed at 50.
3rd · 7:57GB +7% win prob(7:57) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle intended for 85-R.Tonyan INTERCEPTED by 26-L.Ryan at GB 47. 26-L.Ryan to GB 47 for no gain (13-A.Lazard).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Romeo Doubs's 5-yard touchdown catch with 3:07 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:10Ryan Succop·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+30–3
3rd6:27Ryan Succop·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+314–6
4th0:18Russell Gage·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady · two-point no good+614–12
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Packers6–2Buccaneers
316Total yards286
5.3Yards per play4.8
40%Success rate41%
40%Third-down rate18%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays2
14First downs18
1Sacks taken3
2Turnovers2
The read
Packers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Packers: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.20Buccaneers: −0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.02Packers: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.17Buccaneers: −0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.28Packers: −0.28 expected points added per play
−0.33Buccaneers: −0.33 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 60 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 59 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Packers 3, Buccaneers 2.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
GB's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 22 team-games charted in week 3 — 20.0 points clear of the next team along.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.4 points.
TB's blitz rate sent turned over: 42.6% in week 2 against 16.7% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points.
TB's play-action rate turned over: 5.7% in week 2 against 22.2% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
GB's sack or hit rate turned over: 31.3% in week 2 against 8.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
TB's early-down pass rate turned over: 46.7% in week 2 against 76.1% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 24 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.0 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Buccaneers16.7%
right on their number · +0.9 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteTB's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 16.7%, 16.3 points below their season mean of 32.9% and 1.8 times their own 9.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
76Jon RunyanG · Every snap100%62 snaps
70Royce NewmanT · Every snap100%62 snaps
74Elgton JenkinsG · Every snap100%62 snaps
12Aaron RodgersQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
71Josh MyersC · Full-time95%59 snaps
13Allen LazardWR · Full-time90%56 snaps
87Romeo DoubsWR · Full-time89%55 snaps
33Aaron JonesRB · Heavy rotation63%39 snaps
85Robert TonyanTE · Heavy rotation58%36 snaps
69David BakhtiariT · Heavy rotation56%35 snaps
28A.J. DillonRB · Heavy rotation53%33 snaps
73Yosuah NijmanT · Rotational44%27 snaps
18Randall CobbWR · Rotational40%25 snaps
89Marcedes LewisTE · Rotational35%22 snaps
84Tyler DavisTE · Rotational31%19 snaps
88Juwann WinfreeWR · Situational21%13 snaps
81Josiah DeguaraTE · Situational15%9 snaps
8Amari RodgersWR · Situational5%3 snaps
67Jake HansonC · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 6
Jonathan FordDTSean RhyanGCaleb JonesTRasheed WalkerTChristian WatsonWRSamori ToureWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass−20% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 12-T.Brady pass to 17-R.Gage is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q4 0:14 · Buccaneers · — at GB 7 · gained nothing · -0.95 EP · −19.5% win probability
156 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, manual charting on 145. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 89 yards from the TB 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
38%
Yards
600
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.2080%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.3078%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.2148%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.2944%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.0160%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Packers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Packers0Buccaneers3
Field goal11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Packers 20
Packers6Buccaneers3
Packers7Buccaneers3
Touchdown12 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Buccaneers 5
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Buccaneers 27
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter41 plays
Packers13Buccaneers3
Packers14Buccaneers3
Touchdown15 plays, from the Packers 32 to the Buccaneers 6
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 28
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Packers 38 to the Buccaneers 5
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Packers 40
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 27 to the Packers 35
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 32
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Buccaneers 21 to the Buccaneers 46
Punt4 plays, from midfield to the Buccaneers 44
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 2 to the Buccaneers 7
Intercepted3 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Packers 40
Packers14Buccaneers6
Field goal5 plays, from the Packers 47 to the Packers 27
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 43
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 11 to the Buccaneers 30
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter53 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 46 to the Buccaneers 48
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 14 to the Buccaneers 22
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Packers 28
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to midfield
The period ended13 plays, from the Packers 14 to the Buccaneers 42
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Packers14Buccaneers12
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Touchdown18 plays, from the Buccaneers 11 to the Packers 1
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
