2022 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 25, 2022 · Soldier Field
Houston Texans
20
Chicago BearsWinner
23
Chicago Bears 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:13, HOU +46% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(1:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left intended for 28-R.Burkhead INTERCEPTED by 58-R.Smith (90-A.Blackson) at HOU 30. 58-R.Smith to HOU 12 for 18 yards (10-D.Mills).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 1:13HOU +46% win prob(1:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left intended for 28-R.Burkhead INTERCEPTED by 58-R.Smith (90-A.Blackson) at HOU 30. 58-R.Smith to HOU 12 for 18 yards (10-D.Mills).
- Q4 · 5:18CHI +16% win prob(5:18) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle to 85-P.Brown to HOU 39 for 30 yards (22-K.Vildor; 53-N.Morrow).
- Q1 · 0:51HOU +14% win prob(:51) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep middle intended for 13-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 4-E.Jackson (22-K.Vildor) at CHI -9. Touchback.
- Q3 · 11:25CHI +13% win prob(11:25) 24-K.Herbert right guard to HOU 23 for 52 yards (24-D.Stingley).
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 11:26CHI Field goal
(11:26) 2-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: HOU 0 — CHI 3 - Q1 · 6:53CHI Touchdown
(6:53) 24-K.Herbert left tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 0 — CHI 10 - Q1 · 3:45HOU Touchdown
(3:45) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 88-J.Akins for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 7 — CHI 10 - Q2 · 7:37HOU Touchdown
(7:37) 67-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 31-D.Pierce left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 14 — CHI 10 - Q2 · 1:53CHI Field goal
(1:53) 2-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: HOU 14 — CHI 13 - Q3 · 11:29HOU Field goal
(11:29) 7-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: HOU 17 — CHI 13 - Q3 · 8:28CHI Touchdown
(8:28) 71-R.Reiff reported in as eligible. 24-K.Herbert left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 17 — CHI 20 - Q3 · 0:58HOU Field goal
(:58) 7-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: HOU 20 — CHI 20 - Q4 · 0:03CHI Field goal
(:03) 2-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: HOU 20 — CHI 23
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Texans | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 57 | 60 |
| Total yards | 329 | 364 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.8 | 6.1 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.09 | -0.03 (edge) |
| Success rate | 40% (edge) | 40% |
| Dropback rate | 58% | 42% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.17 | -0.14 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.01 | 0.05 (edge) |
| Third downs | 3/12 | 6/13 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 | 10 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 15 | 17 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 5 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · HOU
20/32, 245 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-5.7 expected points added · -2.3% completion over expected
Passing · CHI
8/17, 106 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-7.7 expected points added · -19.0% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | CHI 25 | 10 | 46 | 3:38 | Field goal +3 | |
| 2 | HOU | HOU 25 | 5 | 6 | 1:21 | Punt | |
| 3 | CHI | CHI 19 | 7 | 81 | 3:16 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 4 | HOU | HOU 25 | 9 | 73 | 3:05 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 5 | CHI | CHI 20 | 3 | -1 | 0:54 | Interception | |
| 6 | HOU | CHI 41 | 4 | 34 | 2:01 | Interception | |
| 7 | CHI | CHI 20 | 4 | 8 | 2:06 | Punt | |
| 8 | HOU | HOU 31 | 6 | 8 | 1:52 | Punt | |
| 9 | CHI | CHI 10 | 4 | 6 | 2:08 | Punt | |
| 10 | HOU | CHI 41 | 5 | 41 | 2:07 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 11 | CHI | CHI 18 | 13 | 50 | 5:44 | Field goal +3 | |
| 12 | HOU | HOU 25 | 5 | 9 | 0:44 | Punt | |
| 13 | CHI | CHI 10 | 5 | 25 | 1:04 | End of half | |
| 14 | HOU | HOU 25 | 8 | 49 | 3:35 | Field goal +3 | |
| 15 | CHI | CHI 25 | 7 | 75 | 3:00 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 16 | HOU | HOU 25 | 15 | 70 | 7:31 | Field goal +3 | |
| 17 | CHI | CHI 22 | 4 | 4 | 1:05 | Interception | |
| 18 | HOU | CHI 39 | 4 | -9 | 2:11 | Punt | |
| 19 | CHI | CHI 8 | 10 | 49 | 5:59 | Punt | |
| 20 | HOU | HOU 9 | 7 | 39 | 3:34 | Punt | |
| 21 | CHI | CHI 12 | 5 | 20 | 1:23 | Punt | |
| 22 | HOU | HOU 17 | 3 | 9 | 0:37 | Interception | |
| 23 | CHI | HOU 12 | 4 | 1 | 1:05 | Field goal +3 |
9 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 81 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Houston Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 20/32 | 245 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -5.7 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 20 | 80 | 4.0 | 1 | -1.7 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.4 |
| M.J. Stewart | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 2.4 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Moore | 3 | 3 | 63 | 0 | 10% | 4.9 |
| Nico Collins | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 13% | 1.7 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 13% | -0.9 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 4 | 31 | 1 | 13% | 1.6 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 23% | -7.9 |
| Dameon Pierce | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 6% | 1.6 |
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 16% | -5.2 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3% | 1.9 |
| O.J. Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.6 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Owens | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Pitre | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Desmond King | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Kirksey | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasheem Green | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerry Hughes | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Nelson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamu Grugier-Hill | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Murray | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ogbonnia Okoronkwo | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Chicago Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 8/17 | 106 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -7.7 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Herbert | 20 | 157 | 7.8 | 2 | 4.7 |
| Justin Fields | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 | 2.2 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 2 | 43 | 21.5 | 0 | 2.5 |
| Trestan Ebner | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 | -1.8 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | -1.9 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 19% | 1.3 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 38% | -2.9 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 13% | 0.7 |
| Khalil Herbert | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 13% | -0.3 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 6% | 1.7 |
| Trestan Ebner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -0.6 |
| Jake Tonges | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -0.6 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 5 | 10 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Eddie Jackson | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaquan Brisker | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Thomas | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nicholas Morrow | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kindle Vildor | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kyler Gordon | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Jones | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Armon Watts | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Jones | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- CHI -3
- Closing total
- 40
- HOU moneyline
- +141
- CHI moneyline
- -156
Bears closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 40; the game landed 43 — over by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Soldier Field
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- —
- Referee
- Clete Blakeman
- Rest
- HOU 7 days · CHI 7 days
- Coaches
- Lovie Smith vs Matt Eberflus