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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:57 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 25, 2022 · Soldier Field
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 3
It turned at Q4 1:13, 3rd and 1, on Roquan Smith — 46.2 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:13 · 3rd and 1
Roquan Smith
Bears
(1:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left intended for 28-R.Burkhead INTERCEPTED by 58-R.Smith (90-A.Blackson) at HOU 30. 58-R.Smith to HOU 12 for 18 yards (10-D.Mills).
Chicago Bears 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:13, Bears +46.2% win probability on one snap.
46.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bears won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Texans at 5 chunk plays.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bears won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Texans at 3 of 12 on third down.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bears won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Texans at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
(1:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left intended for 28-R.Burkhead INTERCEPTED by 58-R.Smith (90-A.Blackson) at HOU 30. 58-R.Smith to HOU 12 for 18 yards (10-D.Mills).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Cairo Santos's 30-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Chicago Bears ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Cairo Santos30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.ScalesLead never changed again+320–239 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Texanscategory by categoryBears
Bears ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 57 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Bears’s 60 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Texans 4, Bears 3.
Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's sack or hit rate, 32.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 3.4 points clear of the next team along.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
CHI's early-down pass rate, 36.2%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 3.8 points clear of the next team along.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
HOU's play-action rate turned over: 19.5% in week 2 against 36.4% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
HOU's blitz rate sent turned over: 34.3% in week 2 against 8.0% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Texans1.0 ptsright on their number · +3.4 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 57 snaps
Bears-19.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their -13.9 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 87%
Tendencies room →Texans50.0%inside their normal wobble · −8.2 vs their 58.2%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 44 early downs
Bears36.2%leaned — ran early · −8.7 vs their 44.8%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−1.06× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 47%
Tendencies room →Texans36.4%leaned — faked the run · +11.2 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.48× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bears36.0%leaned — faked the run · +11.5 vs their 24.5%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+1.29× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 91%
Fourth Down room →Texans20.0%right on their number · −11.3 vs their 31.3%, and they swing ±23.6 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Bears—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.5%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15% to 54%
Tendencies room →Texans8.0%inside their normal wobble · −10.2 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Bears6.1%leaned — sat back · −13.6 vs their 19.7%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 35%
Tendencies room →Texans32.0%off script — got home · +17.7 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+2.15× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Bears9.1%right on their number · +1.0 vs their 8.1%, and they swing ±3.4 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
HOU's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 32.0%, 17.7 points above their season mean of 14.3% and 2.2 times their own 8.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
20/32, 245 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-5.7 expected points added · -2.3% completion over expected
Passing · CHI
8/17, 106 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-7.7 expected points added · -19.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Khalil Herbert banked 12.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil HerbertRB · Committee Back | 30.9 | +12.2 | 60% | 52% | 13% | 0% | 20 car, 157 yd, 2 TD · 2/2, 12 yd |
| Dameon PierceRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.1 | −1.4 | 59% | 42% | 6% | 0% | 20 car, 80 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 21 yd |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.1 | +4.1 | 29% | 42% | 13% | 8% | 3/4, 31 yd, 1 TD |
| Davis MillsQB · Starter QB | 9.8 | −4.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/32, 245 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT |
| Chris MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.3 | +5.3 | 53% | 58% | 10% | 11% | 3/3, 63 yd |
| Equanimeous St. BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.3 | +2.7 | 86% | 84% | 13% | 16% | 2 car, 43 yd · 1/2, 20 yd |
| Rex BurkheadRB · Receiving Back | 7.0 | −3.0 | 41% | 58% | 16% | 0% | 3 car, 9 yd · 4/5, 21 yd |
| Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | +0.2 | 81% | 73% | 13% | 11% | 3/4, 31 yd |
| Nico CollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | −1.3 | 68% | 76% | 13% | 22% | 2/4, 41 yd |
| Cole KmetTE · Featured Receiver | 6.0 | +0.9 | 92% | 80% | 19% | 34% | 2/3, 40 yd |
| Justin FieldsQB · Starter QB | 4.9 | −3.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 8/17, 106 yd, 2 INT · 8 car, 47 yd |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Alpha Receiver | 4.3 | −5.1 | 94% | 84% | 38% | 37% | 2/6, 23 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Featured Receiver | 4.2 | −9.3 | 86% | 97% | 23% | 28% | 2/7, 22 yd |
| Phillip DorsettWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | +0.9 | 22% | 15% | 3% | 6% | 1/1, 15 yd |
| Trestan EbnerRB | 2.3 | −2.1 | 24% | 20% | 6% | 0% | 7 car, 23 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Byron PringleWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| David MontgomeryRB | 1.1 | −0.6 | 17% | 16% | 0% | — | 3 car, 11 yd |
| Khari BlasingameRB | 0.0 | — | 24% | 16% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jake TongesTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dante PettisWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 57% | 64% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| O.J. HowardTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 31% | 18% | 3% | 8% | 0/1, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left intended for 28-R.Burkhead INTERCEPTED by 58-R.Smith (90-A.Blackson) at HOU 30. 58-R.Smith to HOU 12 for 18 yards (10-D.Mills).
Q4 1:13 · Texans · 3rd & 1 at HOU 26 · gained nothing · -4.83 EP · −41.6% win probability
155 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, manual charting on 141. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 81 yards from the CHI 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Texans0
Bears3Texans0Bears9Texans0Bears10Texans6Bears10Texans7Bears10How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Texans13Bears10Texans14Bears10How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Texans14Bears13Texans17Bears13How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Texans17Bears19Texans17Bears20Texans20Bears20How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
Texans20Bears23Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Texans at Bears, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 20/32 | 245 | 1 | 2 | 1 | −5.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 20 | 80 | 4.0 | 1 | −1.7 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| M.J. Stewart | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +2.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Moore | 3 | 3 | 63 | 0 | 10% | +4.9 |
| Nico Collins | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 13% | +1.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Owens | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Pitre | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Desmond King | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Kirksey |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 8/17 | 106 | 0 | 2 | 5 | −7.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Herbert |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_03_HOU_CHI
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bears closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 40; the game landed 43 — over by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
| Pharaoh Brown | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 13% | −0.9 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 4 | 31 | 1 | 13% | +1.6 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 23% | −7.9 |
| Dameon Pierce | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 6% | +1.6 |
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 16% | −5.2 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3% | +1.9 |
| O.J. Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Rasheem Green | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerry Hughes | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Nelson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamu Grugier-Hill | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Murray | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ogbonnia Okoronkwo | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 |
| 157 |
| 7.8 |
| 2 |
| +4.7 |
| Justin Fields | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 2 | 43 | 21.5 | 0 | +2.5 |
| Trestan Ebner | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 | −1.8 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 19% | +1.3 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 38% | −2.9 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 13% | +0.7 |
| Khalil Herbert | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 13% | −0.3 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 6% | +1.7 |
| Trestan Ebner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| Jake Tonges | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 5 | 10 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Eddie Jackson | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaquan Brisker | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Thomas | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nicholas Morrow | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kindle Vildor | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kyler Gordon | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Jones | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Armon Watts | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Jones | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
