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2022 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 25, 2022 · SoFi Stadium

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

38

Los Angeles Chargers

10

LAC -6.5 upsetO 46 ✓Dome

Jacksonville Jaguars 38–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 10:47, LAC +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LAC ↑JAX ↓
Q3 · 10:47JAX 22 — LAC 10JAX ball · 4th & 1JAX 64%

(10:47) 25-J.Robinson left tackle for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 10:47LAC +15% win prob(10:47) 25-J.Robinson left tackle for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 12:34JAX +14% win prob(12:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 30 for -9 yards (91-D.Smoot). FUMBLES (91-D.Smoot) [91-D.Smoot], RECOVERED by JAX-23-F.Oluokun at LAC 28.
  3. Q2 · 14:49JAX +13% win prob(14:49) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 20-S.Michel INTERCEPTED by 33-D.Lloyd (32-T.Campbell) at LAC 15. 33-D.Lloyd to LAC 5 for 10 yards (7-G.Everett).
  4. Q3 · 14:00LAC +13% win prob(14:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 15-J.Guyton to JAX 26 for 54 yards (2-R.Jenkins).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 15:00JAX Field goal

    (15:00) 10-R.Patterson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 3 — LAC 0
  2. Q2 · 13:55JAX Field goal

    (13:55) 10-R.Patterson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 6 — LAC 0
  3. Q2 · 10:30JAX Touchdown

    (10:30) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-Z.Jones for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 13 — LAC 0
  4. Q2 · 6:16LAC Touchdown

    (6:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 81-M.Williams for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 13 — LAC 7
  5. Q2 · 1:04JAX Field goal

    (1:04) 10-R.Patterson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 16 — LAC 7
  6. Q3 · 11:54LAC Field goal

    (11:54) 6-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: JAX 16 — LAC 10
  7. Q3 · 10:47JAX Touchdown

    (10:47) 25-J.Robinson left tackle for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 23 — LAC 10
  8. Q3 · 1:18JAX Touchdown

    (1:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: JAX 31 — LAC 10
  9. Q4 · 4:59JAX Touchdown

    (4:59) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-M.Jones for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 38 — LAC 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsChargers
Offensive plays7458
Total yards417 (edge)312
Yards per play5.6 (edge)5.4
Expected points added / play0.22 (edge)-0.26
Success rate50% (edge)38%
Dropback rate55%81%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.35 (edge)-0.16
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.06 (edge)-0.66
Third downs8/15 (edge)5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)4 (edge)2
First downs gained on snaps25 (edge)15
Sacks taken0 (edge)1
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.26.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

25/45, 297 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-9.1 expected points added · -6.7% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

28/39, 262 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

14.7 expected points added · +2.2% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

James RobinsonRB

17 att, 100 yds, 1 TD

1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

13 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Josh PalmerWR

6/9 for 99 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Zay JonesWR

10/11 for 85 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 257312:52Turnover on downs
2LACLAC 40431:28Punt
3JAXJAX 156203:22Punt
4LACLAC 154192:07Punt
5JAXJAX 3312685:14Field goal +3
6LACLAC 9200:16Interception
7JAXLAC 5400:49Field goal +3
8LACLAC 25631:31Fumble
9JAXLAC 286281:58Touchdown +7
10LACLAC 2511754:13Touchdown +7
11JAXJAX 2512705:08Field goal +3
12LACLAC 256160:51Punt
13JAXJAX 21100:11End of half
14LACLAC 2511783:09Field goal +3
15JAXJAX 257751:13Touchdown +7
16LACLAC 25560:56Punt
17JAXJAX 4015578:27Touchdown +8
18LACLAC 258532:11Turnover on downs
19JAXJAX 3215689:10Touchdown +7
20LACLAC 2515594:51Turnover on downs
21JAXJAX 11100:03End of game

9 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 78 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence28/3926230014.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Robinson171005.911.6
Travis Etienne13453.50-0.8
Trevor Lawrence372.301.6
Zay Jones100.00-0.4
Evan Engram100.00-0.5
C.J. Beathard1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Zay Jones101185129%4.6
Christian Kirk6972124%1.8
Marvin Jones4733118%0.8
Travis Etienne333008%3.6
Jamal Agnew111703%2.2
James Robinson331608%1.7
Evan Engram13908%1.5
Jamycal Hasty01003%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tre Herndon520.001
Foyesade Oluokun510.000
Devin Lloyd420.013
Rayshawn Jenkins410.000
Andre Cisco220.000
Tyson Campbell400.001
Dawuane Smoot201.000
Darious Williams110.002
Travon Walker020.001
Josh Hines-Allen010.001

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert25/45297111-9.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Sony Michel5224.40-0.0
Justin Herbert177.001.5
Austin Ekeler451.30-4.1
Joshua Kelley1-3-3.00-1.9
DeAndre Carter1-5-5.00-1.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Josh Palmer6999022%6.0
Jalen Guyton236407%5.6
Austin Ekeler8848020%-0.3
DeAndre Carter3431010%-1.3
Gerald Everett2625015%-0.4
Mike Williams1615115%-4.0
Sony Michel12905%-5.5
Joshua Kelley22605%-0.2
Zander Horvath01002%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Drue Tranquill920.001
Michael Davis820.000
Derwin James350.001
Sebastian Joseph430.000
Kyle Van Noy310.000
Khalil Mack310.000
Nasir Adderley130.000
Bryce Callahan220.000
Kenneth Murray210.000
Asante Samuel210.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LAC -6.5
Closing total
46
JAX moneyline
+220
LAC moneyline
-252

Chargers closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 48 — over by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
JAX 7 days · LAC 10 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Brandon Staley