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Jacksonville Jaguars 38 at Los Angeles Chargers 10. Final.
Chargers -6.5 upset
The verdict · 2022 Week 3
Jacksonville Jaguars 38, Chargers 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 10:47, 4th and 1, on James Robinson — 15.2 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 10:47 · 4th and 1
James Robinson
Jaguars
(10:47) 25-J.Robinson left tackle for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 46 ✓
Dome
Chargers closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Jacksonville Jaguars 38–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 10:47, Jaguars +15.2% win probability on one snap.
15.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Devin LloydJaguarsQ2 14:49(14:49) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 20-S.Michel INTERCEPTED by 33-D.Lloyd (32-T.Campbell) at LAC 15. 33-D.Lloyd to LAC 5 for 10 yards (7-G.Everett).
13.2pts
Justin HerbertJaguarsQ2 12:34(12:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 30 for -9 yards (91-D.Smoot). FUMBLES (91-D.Smoot) [91-D.Smoot], RECOVERED by JAX-23-F.Oluokun at LAC 28.
13.6pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.66 expected points per carry.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jaguars won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Chargers at -0.26 expected points per snap.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Jaguars won this one — no giveaways, against Chargers at 2 giveaways.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.35 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at -0.16 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Jaguars167 of 173 plays carry both curves
(10:47) 25-J.Robinson left tackle for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −15.2 for ChargersExpected points −6.60 for ChargersThe model had Jaguars 11 points higher than the market did.play 107
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 10:47LAC +15% win prob(10:47) 25-J.Robinson left tackle for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 12:34JAX +14% win prob(12:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 30 for -9 yards (91-D.Smoot). FUMBLES (91-D.Smoot) [91-D.Smoot], RECOVERED by JAX-23-F.Oluokun at LAC 28.
2nd · 14:49JAX +13% win prob(14:49) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 20-S.Michel INTERCEPTED by 33-D.Lloyd (32-T.Campbell) at LAC 15. 33-D.Lloyd to LAC 5 for 10 yards (7-G.Everett).
3rd · 14:00LAC +13% win prob(14:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 15-J.Guyton to JAX 26 for 54 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
2nd · 4:12LAC +10% win prob(4:12) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at LAC 21 for 35 yards (24-N.Adderley). Penalty on LAC-32-A.Gilman, Defensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 4:55LAC +7% win prob(4:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 7-Z.Jones to JAX 44 for 14 yards (26-A.Samuel).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Riley Patterson's 22-yard field goal with 15:00 left in the 2nd put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd15:00Riley Patterson·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.MatiscikLead never changed again+33–0
2nd13:55Riley Patterson·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+36–0
Jaguars ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.66 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Jaguars: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.26Chargers: −0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.35Jaguars: +0.35 expected points added per play
−0.16Chargers: −0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.06Jaguars: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.66Chargers: −0.66 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 74 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Chargers’s 58 at 81%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 7, Chargers 3.
NoteJaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
JAX's play-action rate turned over: 30.0% in week 2 against 10.0% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
JAX's sack or hit rate turned over: 34.3% in week 2 against 12.8% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · −4.0 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Chargers4.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.6 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.23× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteLAC's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 14.9%, 11.8 points below their season mean of 26.7% and 1.4 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Herbert pass−15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:49) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 20-S.Michel INTERCEPTED by 33-D.Lloyd (32-T.Campbell) at LAC 15. 33-D.Lloyd to LAC 5 for 10 yards (7-G.Everett).
Q2 14:49 · Chargers · 1st & 10 at LAC 9 · gained nothing · -6.29 EP · −15.4% win probability
165 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 75 yards from the LAC 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
42%
Yards
727
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.0877%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.2163%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.0042%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Jaguars2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Chargers 39
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 40 to the Chargers 43
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 15 to the Jaguars 35
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 15 to the Chargers 24
The period ended13 plays, from the Jaguars 33 to the Chargers 10
2nd quarter53 plays
Jaguars3Chargers0
Field goal1 play
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Jaguars6Chargers0
Field goal4 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 39
Jaguars12Chargers0
Jaguars13Chargers0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 28 to the Chargers 14
Jaguars13Chargers6
Jaguars13Chargers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Jaguars 15
Jaguars16Chargers7
Field goal13 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Chargers 5
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 37
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter46 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldSix linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.0 seconds
Jaguars16Chargers10
Field goal11 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Jaguars 7
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Jaguars22Chargers10
Jaguars23Chargers10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to midfield
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 31
Jaguars29Chargers10
Jaguars31Chargers10
Touchdown17 plays, from the Jaguars 40 to the Chargers 4
The period ended6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 31
4th quarter37 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays
Jaguars37Chargers10
Jaguars38Chargers10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Jaguars 32 to the Chargers 9
Turnover on downs16 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Jaguars 8
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -6.5
Closing total
46
Jaguars moneyline
+220
Chargers moneyline
-252
Chargers closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 48 — over by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Jaguars 7 days · Chargers 10 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Brandon Staley
1st · 3:01LAC +6% win prob(3:01) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 39-J.Agnew to LAC 29 for 17 yards (9-K.Murray; 3-D.James). LAC-97-J.Bosa was injured during the play.
2nd · 13:52LAC +6% win prob(13:52) (Shotgun) 20-S.Michel left guard to LAC 33 for 8 yards (91-D.Smoot).
