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Kansas City Chiefs 17 at Indianapolis Colts 20. Final.
Chiefs -4.5 upset
The verdict · 2022 Week 3
Indianapolis Colts 20, Chiefs 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:29, 2nd and 10, on Jelani Woods — 33.7 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:29 · 2nd and 10
Jelani Woods
Colts
(:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 80-J.Woods for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones].
U 51 ✓
15 mph wind
Chiefs closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Indianapolis Colts 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:29, Colts +33.7% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
33.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetColtsQ1 13:57(13:57) 6-M.Haack punts 53 yards to KC 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 24-S.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by IND-83-K.Granson at KC 4.
19.3pts
Rodney McLeodColtsQ4 0:08(:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 26-R.McLeod (5-S.Gilmore) at IND 36. 26-R.McLeod to IND 36 for no gain (87-T.Kelce).
14.7pts
What separated them
Every snap
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — +0.04 expected points per snap, against Colts at -0.16 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — +0.15 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.10 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Colts at 4 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Colts won this one — 6 of 15 on third down, against Chiefs at 3 of 10 on third down.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Chiefs161 of 170 plays carry both curves
(:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 80-J.Woods for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones].
Swing +33.7 for ColtsExpected points +2.58 for ColtsThe model had Colts 8 points higher than the market did.play 162
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:29IND +34% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 80-J.Woods for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones].
1st · 13:57IND +19% win prob(13:57) 6-M.Haack punts 53 yards to KC 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 24-S.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by IND-83-K.Granson at KC 4.
4th · 0:08KC +15% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 26-R.McLeod (5-S.Gilmore) at IND 36. 26-R.McLeod to IND 36 for no gain (87-T.Kelce).
2nd · 3:33KC +14% win prob(3:33) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at IND 28 for -4 yards (8-C.Dunlap). FUMBLES (8-C.Dunlap) [8-C.Dunlap], touched at IND 27, RECOVERED by KC-38-L.Sneed at IND 26. 38-L.Sneed to IND 21 for 5 yards (63-D.Pinter).
4th · 10:04IND +13% win prob(10:04) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 9-J.Smith-Schuster pushed ob at IND 19 for 53 yards (31-B.Facyson).
1st · 2:45KC +12% win prob(2:45) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at IND 42 for -9 yards (38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (38-L.Sneed) [38-L.Sneed], touched at IND 41, recovered by IND-28-J.Taylor at IND 35.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jelani Woods's 12-yard touchdown catch with 0:29 left in the 4th put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st12:28Jelani Woods·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+70–7
1st0:39Travis Kelce·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes · kick no good, wide left+66–7
2nd9:44Chase McLaughlin·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap L.Rhodes+36–10
3rd7:59Matt Ammendola·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+317–10
3rd2:58Chase McLaughlin·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap L.Rhodes+317–13
4th0:29Jelani Woods·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt RyanLead never changed again+717–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryColts
Chiefs5–2Colts
317Total yards260
5.2Yards per play3.8
41%Success rate43%
30%Third-down rate40%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays4
19First downs17
1Sacks taken5
1Turnovers1
The read
Chiefs ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Chiefs: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.16Colts: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Chiefs: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.10Colts: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.22Chiefs: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.27Colts: −0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 61 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Colts’s 68 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 4, Colts 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's blitz rate sent turned over: 22.0% in week 2 against 41.9% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
IND's play-action rate turned over: 11.4% in week 2 against 30.2% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 29 pts
leaned — got home · +7.1 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.12× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Colts11.9%
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteKC's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 41.9%, 16.0 points above their season mean of 25.8% and 1.9 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%63 snaps
57Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%63 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%63 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%63 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%63 snaps
77Andrew WylieG · Full-time97%61 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time89%56 snaps
11Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation78%49 snaps
9JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Heavy rotation70%44 snaps
17Mecole HardmanWR · Heavy rotation68%43 snaps
1Jerick McKinnonRB · Heavy rotation52%33 snaps
83Noah GrayTE · Rotational41%26 snaps
25Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Rotational40%25 snaps
84Justin WatsonWR · Situational16%10 snaps
88Joe FortsonTE · Situational13%8 snaps
24Skyy MooreWR · Situational13%8 snaps
45Michael BurtonFB · Situational8%5 snaps
10Isiah PachecoRB · Situational8%5 snaps
70Prince Tega WanoghoT · Situational3%2 snaps
73Nick AllegrettiG · Situational3%2 snaps
99Khalen SaundersDT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Michael DannaDEBenton WhitleyDEJoshua KaindohDEHarrison ButkerKShane BuecheleQBRonald JonesRBDarian KinnardT
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Ryan pass+29% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 80-J.Woods for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones].
Q4 0:29 · Colts · 2nd & 10 at KC 12 · gained 12 · +2.58 EP · +28.5% win probability
159 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, manual charting on 146. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 76 yards from the IND 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
42%
Yards
576
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.0968%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.2371%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.2065%
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.6077%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.3327%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Colts2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Chiefs0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 34 to the Colts 39
Chiefs0Colts6
Chiefs0Colts7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chiefs 4 to the Chiefs 1
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Chiefs 24
Punt9 plays, from the Colts 11 to the Colts 43
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 1 to the Chiefs 10
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Colts 42 to the Chiefs 49
Chiefs6Colts7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Colts 3
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Chiefs6Colts10
Field goal10 plays, from the Colts 34 to the Chiefs 23
Punt14 plays, from the Chiefs 15 to the Colts 48
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Colts 1 to the Colts 32
Chiefs12Colts10
Chiefs14Colts10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 21 to the Colts 1
Punt10 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 35
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Chiefs17Colts10
Field goal18 plays, from the Chiefs 31 to the Colts 2
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Chiefs17Colts13
Field goal11 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Chiefs 19
The period ended8 plays, from the Chiefs 12 to the Colts 36
4th quarter44 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Colts 23
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Chiefs 31
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.4 seconds
No good7 plays, from the Chiefs 31 to the Colts 16
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Chiefs17Colts19
Chiefs17Colts20
Touchdown18 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Chiefs 12
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Colts 46
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
