For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:10 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 25, 2022 · Lucas Oil Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 3
It turned at Q4 0:29, 2nd and 10, on Jelani Woods — 33.7 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Indianapolis Colts 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:29, Colts +33.7% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:29 · 2nd and 10
Jelani Woods
Colts
(:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 80-J.Woods for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones].
33.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — +0.04 expected points per snap, against Colts at -0.16 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — +0.15 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.10 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Colts at 4 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Colts won this one — 6 of 15 on third down, against Chiefs at 3 of 10 on third down.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 14.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
(:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 80-J.Woods for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones].
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jelani Woods's 12-yard touchdown catch with 0:29 left in the 4th put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Travis Kelce3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomes · kick no good, wide left+66–7
Jelani Woods12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt RyanLead never changed again+717–207 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryColts
Chiefs ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 61 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Colts’s 68 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 4, Colts 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
KC's blitz rate sent turned over: 22.0% in week 2 against 41.9% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · +1.9σ from their own normal
IND's play-action rate turned over: 11.4% in week 2 against 30.2% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 29 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs9.6 ptsright on their number · −1.2 vs their 10.7 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 60 snaps
Colts1.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 68 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 32% to 86%
Tendencies room →Chiefs62.5%right on their number · +0.3 vs their 62.2%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 48 early downs
Colts60.0%right on their number · +3.1 vs their 56.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 40%
Tendencies room →Chiefs14.6%right on their number · −3.1 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Colts30.2%leaned — faked the run · +13.9 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+1.50× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -60% to 126%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 19.2%.
Colts75.0%leaned — went for it · +38.7 vs their 36.3%, and they swing ±34.8 week to week (+1.11× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 48%
Tendencies room →Chiefs41.9%leaned — sent pressure · +16.0 vs their 25.8%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.93× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Colts12.2%right on their number · −3.1 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 33%
Tendencies room →Chiefs23.3%leaned — got home · +7.1 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.12× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Colts11.9%right on their number · −2.1 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
KC's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 41.9%, 16.0 points above their season mean of 25.8% and 1.9 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
20/35, 262 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
7.7 expected points added · -4.4% completion over expected
Passing · IND
27/37, 222 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-4.0 expected points added · +2.0% completion over expected
Receiving · KC
5/8 for 89 yds, 0 TD
24% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jelani Woods banked 7.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis KelceTE · Featured Receiver | 17.9 | −6.6 | 89% | 95% | 24% | 20% | 1 car, 1 yd · 4/8, 58 yd, 1 TD |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 17.1 | −6.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/35, 262 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 26 yd |
| Jelani WoodsTE · Rotational Receiver | 15.3 | +7.4 | 23% | 26% | 8% | 20% | 2/3, 13 yd, 2 TD |
| Matt RyanQB · Starter QB | 15.3 | +0.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/37, 222 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 4 yd |
| Michael PittmanWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.2 | +1.3 | 94% | 98% | 25% | 29% | 8/9, 72 yd |
| Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Committee Back | 14.9 | −3.6 | 40% | 38% | 15% | 0% | 7 car, 0 yd, 1 TD · 5/5, 39 yd |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Featured Receiver | 13.9 | +0.1 | 70% | 79% | 24% | 40% | 5/8, 89 yd |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · Bell Cow Back | 12.1 | −8.1 | 76% | 70% | 14% | 0% | 21 car, 71 yd · 3/5, 20 yd |
| Alec PierceWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.1 | +0.2 | 45% | 47% | 14% | 44% | 3/5, 61 yd |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Featured Receiver | 8.8 | −2.6 | 78% | 86% | 21% | 33% | 4/7, 48 yd |
| Nyheim Miller-HinesRB · Receiving Back | 8.0 | −2.3 | 45% | 53% | 17% | 0% | 3 car, 7 yd · 5/6, 23 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | +0.3 | 41% | 29% | 6% | 3% | 1/2, 26 yd |
| Parris CampbellWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | +0.1 | 82% | 88% | 6% | 4% | 2/2, 10 yd |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −0.2 | 42% | 30% | 6% | 4% | 2/2, 7 yd |
| Jerick McKinnonRB | 2.0 | −5.3 | 52% | 55% | 3% | 1% | 7 car, 20 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −2.0 | 59% | 58% | 8% | 4% | 1/3, 9 yd |
| Ashton DulinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.3 | 25% | 21% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Mecole HardmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.3 | 68% | 67% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Isiah PachecoRB | 0.9 | −2.7 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Michael BurtonRB | 0.2 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Joseph FortsonTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Justin WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 16% | 19% | 3% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 13% | 7% | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 80-J.Woods for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones].
Q4 0:29 · Colts · 2nd & 10 at KC 12 · gained 12 · +2.58 EP · +28.5% win probability
159 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 170 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, manual charting on 146. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 76 yards from the IND 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chiefs0
Colts6Chiefs0Colts7Chiefs6Colts7Chiefs6Colts10How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Chiefs12Colts10Chiefs14Colts10Chiefs17Colts10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Chiefs17Colts13How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
Chiefs17Colts19Chiefs17Colts20How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Colts, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 20/35 | 262 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +7.7 |
| Tommy Townsend | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 5 | 8 | 89 | 0 | 24% | +5.3 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 8 | 58 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Harris | 5 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalen Saunders | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Watson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 27/37 | 222 | 2 | 0 | 5 | −4.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_03_KC_IND
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 51; the game landed 37 — under by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| Isiah Pacheco | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Michael Burton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | −3.3 |
| 24% |
| +2.6 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 21% | +1.4 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 15% | +2.3 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 6% | −1.8 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bolton | 3 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Thornhill | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Karlaftis | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Reid | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashad Fenton | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlos Dunlap | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 21 | 71 | 3.4 | 0 | −7.6 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 8 | 9 | 72 | 0 | 25% | +1.8 |
| Alec Pierce | 3 | 5 | 61 | 0 | 14% | +3.4 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 5 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 17% | +0.8 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 14% | −0.0 |
| Jelani Woods | 2 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 8% | +2.7 |
| Parris Campbell | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | −0.8 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 8% | −0.3 |
| Kylen Granson | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6% | −0.5 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaire Franklin | 8 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bobby Okereke | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephon Gilmore | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rodney McLeod | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| DeForest Buckner | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kwity Paye | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yannick Ngakoue | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Facyson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| E.J. Speed | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kenny Moore | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
