2022 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 25, 2022 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Kansas City Chiefs

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

KC -4.5 upsetU 51 ✓Chiefs closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Indianapolis Colts 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:29, IND +34% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:29KC 17 — IND 19IND ball · 2nd & 10KC 52%

(:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 80-J.Woods for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:29IND +34% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 80-J.Woods for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones].
Q1 · 13:57IND +19% win prob(13:57) 6-M.Haack punts 53 yards to KC 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 24-S.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by IND-83-K.Granson at KC 4.
Q4 · 0:08KC +15% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 26-R.McLeod (5-S.Gilmore) at IND 36. 26-R.McLeod to IND 36 for no gain (87-T.Kelce).
Q2 · 3:33KC +14% win prob(3:33) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at IND 28 for -4 yards (8-C.Dunlap). FUMBLES (8-C.Dunlap) [8-C.Dunlap], touched at IND 27, RECOVERED by KC-38-L.Sneed at IND 26. 38-L.Sneed to IND 21 for 5 yards (63-D.Pinter).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:28IND Touchdown
(12:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 80-J.Woods for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [99-K.Saunders]. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 0 — IND 7
Q1 · 0:39KC Touchdown
(:39) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: KC 6 — IND 7
Q2 · 9:44IND Field goal
(9:44) 7-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
Score after this play: KC 6 — IND 10
Q2 · 1:50KC Touchdown
(1:50) (Shotgun) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: KC 14 — IND 10
Q3 · 7:59KC Field goal
(7:59) 19-M.Ammendola 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: KC 17 — IND 10
Q3 · 2:58IND Field goal
(2:58) 7-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
Score after this play: KC 17 — IND 13
Q4 · 0:29IND Touchdown
(:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 80-J.Woods for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones]. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 17 — IND 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Colts
Offensive plays	61	68
Total yards	317 (edge)	260
Yards per play	5.2 (edge)	3.8
Expected points added / play	0.04 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	41%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15 (edge)	-0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.22 (edge)	-0.27
Third downs	3/10	6/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	5
Turnovers	1	1

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

20/35, 262 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

7.7 expected points added · -4.4% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Matt RyanQB

27/37, 222 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-4.0 expected points added · +2.0% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

21 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

-7.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Jerick McKinnonRB

7 att, 20 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

JuJu Smith-SchusterWR

5/8 for 89 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

8/9 for 72 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 1.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 34	5	5	1:13	Punt
2	IND	KC 4	4	4	1:23	Touchdown +7
3	KC	KC 21	5	3	1:08	Punt
4	IND	IND 11	9	31	4:21	Punt
5	KC	KC 1	4	9	2:13	Punt
6	IND	IND 42	4	-1	2:05	Turnover on downs
7	KC	IND 35	5	35	2:03	Touchdown +6
8	IND	IND 29	12	46	5:54	Field goal +3
9	KC	KC 15	12	28	4:54	Punt
10	IND	IND 1	3	26	1:23	Fumble
11	KC	IND 21	6	23	1:37	Touchdown +8
12	IND	IND 30	7	-9	1:12	Punt
13	KC	KC 46	2	6	0:34	End of half
14	KC	KC 31	16	72	7:04	Field goal +3
15	IND	IND 25	11	42	5:03	Field goal +3
16	KC	KC 12	11	64	4:24	Turnover on downs
17	IND	IND 24	7	45	2:42	Turnover on downs
18	KC	KC 31	7	53	2:09	Missed field goal
19	IND	IND 24	17	71	8:14	Touchdown +7
20	KC	KC 30	4	24	0:22	Interception
21	IND	IND 36	1	0	0:02	End of game

7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 72 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	20/35	262	1	1	1	7.7
Tommy Townsend	0/1	0	0	0	0	-3.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	4	26	6.5	0	2.1
Jerick McKinnon	7	20	2.9	0	-1.8
Isiah Pacheco	3	9	3.0	0	-0.8
Michael Burton	1	2	2.0	0	1.5
Travis Kelce	1	1	1.0	0	0.3
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	7	0	0.0	1	-3.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
JuJu Smith-Schuster	5	8	89	0	24%	5.3
Travis Kelce	4	8	58	1	24%	2.6
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	4	7	48	0	21%	1.4
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	5	5	39	0	15%	2.3
Noah Gray	1	2	26	0	6%	-1.8
Mecole Hardman	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.5
Jerick McKinnon	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Justin Watson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Darius Harris	5	7	0.0	0
Khalen Saunders	3	5	0.0	0
Jaylen Watson	6	1	0.0	1
L'Jarius Sneed	4	2	1.0	0
Nick Bolton	3	3	2.0	0
Juan Thornhill	2	3	0.0	0
George Karlaftis	1	4	0.0	0
Justin Reid	1	4	0.0	0
Rashad Fenton	3	2	0.0	0
Carlos Dunlap	2	2	1.0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	27/37	222	2	0	5	-4.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	21	71	3.4	-7.6
Nyheim Miller-Hines	3	7	2.3	-1.0
Matt Ryan	3	4	1.3	1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Pittman	8	9	72	0	25%	1.8
Alec Pierce	3	5	61	0	14%	3.4
Nyheim Miller-Hines	5	6	23	0	17%	0.8
Jonathan Taylor	3	5	20	0	14%	-0.0
Jelani Woods	2	3	13	2	8%	2.7
Parris Campbell	2	2	10	0	6%	-0.8
Mo Alie-Cox	1	3	9	0	8%	-0.3
Kylen Granson	2	2	7	0	6%	-0.5
Ashton Dulin	1	1	7	0	3%	1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Zaire Franklin	8	4	0.0	0	1
Bobby Okereke	3	3	0.0	0	0
Stephon Gilmore	5	0	0.0	0	1
Rodney McLeod	3	2	0.0	1	2
DeForest Buckner	1	2	0.0	0	0
Kwity Paye	3	0	0.0	0	0
Yannick Ngakoue	1	1	1.0	0	0
Brandon Facyson	2	0	0.0	0	0
E.J. Speed	1	1	0.0	0	1
Kenny Moore	2	0	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -4.5
Closing total: 51
KC moneyline: -199
IND moneyline: +177

Chiefs closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 51; the game landed 37 — under by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: KC 10 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Frank Reich