2022 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 25, 2022 · State Farm Stadium

Los Angeles RamsWinner

Arizona Cardinals

LA -3.5 ✓U 49 ✓DomeRams closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Los Angeles Rams 20–12. Biggest swing: Q1 7:11, ARI +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 7:11LA 3 — ARI 0LA ball · 1st & 15LA 74%

(7:11) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 89-T.Higbee to ARI 31 for 19 yards (25-Z.Collins).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 7:11ARI +7% win prob(7:11) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 89-T.Higbee to ARI 31 for 19 yards (25-Z.Collins).
Q3 · 4:16ARI +6% win prob(4:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp to LA 35 for 11 yards (34-J.Thompson).
Q1 · 12:21ARI +5% win prob(12:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 19-B.Powell to ARI 20 for 16 yards (3-B.Baker).
Q3 · 1:07ARI +5% win prob(1:07) 3-C.Akers left tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:49LA Field goal
(9:49) 8-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: LA 3 — ARI 0
Q1 · 4:06LA Touchdown
(4:06) 10-C.Kupp left end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 10 — ARI 0
Q2 · 13:28LA Field goal
(13:28) 8-M.Gay 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: LA 13 — ARI 0
Q2 · 1:54ARI Field goal
(1:54) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
Score after this play: LA 13 — ARI 3
Q2 · 0:07ARI Field goal
(:07) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
Score after this play: LA 13 — ARI 6
Q3 · 5:15ARI Field goal
(5:15) 5-M.Prater 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
Score after this play: LA 13 — ARI 9
Q3 · 1:07LA Touchdown
(1:07) 3-C.Akers left tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 20 — ARI 9
Q4 · 1:10ARI Field goal
(1:10) 5-M.Prater 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
Score after this play: LA 20 — ARI 12

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Cardinals
Offensive plays	44	81
Total yards	341	365 (edge)
Yards per play	7.8 (edge)	4.5
Expected points added / play	0.22 (edge)	-0.04
Success rate	52% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	61%	77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.41 (edge)	-0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	0.16 (edge)
Third downs	3/8 (edge)	6/18
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	15	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

37/58, 314 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-4.8 expected points added · -5.5% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

18/25, 249 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

10.1 expected points added · +6.2% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Cam AkersRB

12 att, 61 yds, 1 TD

-3.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

13 att, 39 yds, 0 TD

2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Marquise BrownWR

14/17 for 140 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Greg DortchWR

9/10 for 80 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 25	5	8	1:26	Punt
2	LA	ARI 35	8	41	3:49	Field goal +3
3	ARI	ARI 25	5	2	0:55	Punt
4	LA	LA 42	8	63	4:50	Touchdown +7
5	ARI	ARI 25	6	16	2:29	Punt
6	LA	LA 20	6	63	3:08	Field goal +3
7	ARI	ARI 25	5	-4	1:00	Punt
8	LA	LA 35	4	8	1:02	Punt
9	ARI	ARI 30	19	75	9:30	Field goal +3
10	LA	LA 25	5	5	1:03	Punt
11	ARI	ARI 28	8	67	0:46	Field goal +3
12	LA	—	1	0	0:02	End of half
13	LA	LA 25	5	5	2:03	Punt
14	ARI	ARI 11	16	58	7:47	Field goal +3
15	LA	LA 25	10	85	4:10	Touchdown +7
16	ARI	ARI 25	13	54	4:31	Turnover on downs
17	LA	LA 26	8	71	4:50	Fumble
18	ARI	ARI 3	17	89	5:32	Field goal +3
19	LA	ARI 47	3	0	1:07	End of game

8 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 89 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	18/25	249	0	0	1	10.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Cam Akers	12	61	5.1	1	-3.7
Cooper Kupp	1	20	20.0	1	2.4
Darrell Henderson	4	17	4.3	0	0.2
Matthew Stafford	3	2	0.7	0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Ben Skowronek	4	4	66	16%	3.9
Tyler Higbee	4	4	61	16%	3.1
Cooper Kupp	4	6	44	24%	3.7
Kendall Blanton	1	1	28	4%	1.8
Brandon Powell	3	3	27	12%	2.8
Allen Robinson	2	5	23	20%	-0.9
Darrell Henderson	0	1	0	4%	-1.4
Tutu Atwell	0	1	0	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Derion Kendrick	9	0	0.0	1
Bobby Wagner	5	3	0.0	0
Nick Scott	6	1	0.0	0
Jalen Ramsey	7	0	0.0	2
Taylor Rapp	5	1	0.0	0
Grant Haley	3	2	0.0	0
Aaron Donald	3	2	1.0	0
Justin Hollins	2	2	0.0	0
Leonard Floyd	1	3	0.0	0
A'Shawn Robinson	3	0	0.0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	37/58	314	0	0	2	-4.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Conner	13	39	3.0	2.9
Eno Benjamin	5	16	3.2	-0.2
Kyler Murray	2	8	4.0	-1.1
Darrel Williams	1	7	7.0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Marquise Brown	14	17	140	31%	5.5
Greg Dortch	9	10	80	18%	2.8
Zach Ertz	6	10	45	18%	-0.9
James Conner	3	5	18	9%	-1.5
Andre Baccellia	2	4	13	7%	-0.2
Andy Isabella	1	2	11	4%	0.6
Eno Benjamin	2	4	7	7%	-2.3
Darrel Williams	0	1	0	2%	-0.8
A.J. Green	0	2	0	4%	-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast
Budda Baker	5	3
Jalen Thompson	5	2
Byron Murphy	2	2
Zaven Collins	4	0
Zach Allen	1	2
Dennis Gardeck	2	0
Michael Dogbe	1	1
Jace Whittaker	2	0
Ben Niemann	1	0
Trayvon Mullen	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -3.5
Closing total: 49
LA moneyline: -171
ARI moneyline: +153

Rams closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 49; the game landed 32 — under by 17.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: LA 7 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Kliff Kingsbury

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.