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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:08 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Rams163 of 175 plays carry both curves
(7:11) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 89-T.Higbee to ARI 31 for 19 yards (25-Z.Collins).
Swing −6.7 for CardinalsExpected points −1.73 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 6 points higher than the market did.play 24
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:11ARI +7% win prob(7:11) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 89-T.Higbee to ARI 31 for 19 yards (25-Z.Collins).
3rd · 4:16ARI +6% win prob(4:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp to LA 35 for 11 yards (34-J.Thompson).
1st · 12:21ARI +5% win prob(12:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 19-B.Powell to ARI 20 for 16 yards (3-B.Baker).
3rd · 1:07ARI +5% win prob(1:07) 3-C.Akers left tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:35LA +5% win prob(11:35) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 2-M.Brown (6-D.Kendrick).
1st · 13:46LA +5% win prob(13:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 18-A.Green (5-J.Ramsey).
1st · 13:42LA +5% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matt Gay's 22-yard field goal with 9:49 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:49Matt Gay·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.OrzechLead never changed again+33–0
4th1:10Matt Prater·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+320–12
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryCardinals
Rams6–3Cardinals
341Total yards365
7.8Yards per play4.5
52%Success rate40%
38%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
8Explosive plays3
15First downs23
1Sacks taken2
1Turnovers0
The read
Rams ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Rams: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.04Cardinals: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.41Rams: +0.41 expected points added per play
−0.10Cardinals: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Rams: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.16Cardinals: +0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 44 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 81 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Rams 4, Cardinals 2.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ARI's early-down pass rate, 79.3%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 0.2 points clear of the next team along.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
58 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ARI's play-action rate, 3.2%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 0.4 points clear of the next team along.
62 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.0 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 62 dropbacks
Cardinals18.5%
right on their number · +2.1 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
NoteARI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 79.3%, 17.9 points above their season mean of 61.5% and 2.1 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
70Joseph NoteboomT · Every snap100%48 snaps
77Alaric JacksonT · Every snap100%48 snaps
73David EdwardsG · Every snap100%48 snaps
10Cooper KuppWR · Every snap100%48 snaps
9Matthew StaffordQB · Every snap100%48 snaps
65Coleman SheltonG · Every snap100%48 snaps
79Rob HavensteinT · Full-time94%45 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Full-time94%45 snaps
1Allen RobinsonWR · Full-time92%44 snaps
18Ben SkowronekWR · Full-time85%41 snaps
3Cam AkersRB · Heavy rotation50%24 snaps
27Darrell HendersonRB · Heavy rotation50%24 snaps
19Brandon PowellWR · Situational13%6 snaps
86Kendall BlantonTE · Situational10%5 snaps
71Bobby EvansG · Situational6%3 snaps
15Tutu AtwellWR · Situational6%3 snaps
Inactive · 5
Brian AllenCDavid LongCBDecobie DurantDBBryce PerkinsQBJordan FullerSS
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
John WolfordQB
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
76Will HernandezG · Every snap100%83 snaps
68Kelvin BeachumT · Every snap100%83 snaps
74D.J. HumphriesT · Every snap100%83 snaps
61Rodney HudsonC · Every snap100%83 snaps
1Kyler MurrayQB · Every snap100%83 snaps
2Marquise BrownWR · Full-time95%79 snaps
86Zach ErtzTE · Full-time93%77 snaps
67Justin PughG · Full-time87%72 snaps
83Greg DortchWR · Full-time81%67 snaps
6James ConnerRB · Heavy rotation60%50 snaps
17Andy IsabellaWR · Rotational39%32 snaps
18A.J. GreenWR · Rotational34%28 snaps
82Andre BaccelliaWR · Rotational31%26 snaps
26Eno BenjaminRB · Rotational27%22 snaps
24Darrel WilliamsRB · Situational17%14 snaps
75Max GarciaG · Situational13%11 snaps
87Maxx WilliamsTE · Situational11%9 snaps
89Stephen AndersonTE · Situational7%6 snaps
85Trey McBrideTE · Situational6%5 snaps
Inactive · 7
Christian MatthewDBJonathan LedbetterDELecitus SmithGEzekiel TurnerILBMyjai SandersOLBKeaontay IngramRBRondale MooreWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Lee punts−11% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:42) 14-A.Lee punts 3 yards to ARI 36, Center-46-A.Brewer. 43-J.Gervase to ARI 35 for 1 yard (46-A.Brewer, 89-S.Anderson).
Q1 13:42 · Cardinals · 4th & 2 at ARI 33 · gained nothing · -3.12 EP · −10.9% win probability
161 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 85 yards from the LA 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
38%
Yards
704
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR67+0.0179%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.2259%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.2350%
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 33
Rams3Cardinals0
Field goal9 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Cardinals 4
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 27
Rams9Cardinals0
Rams10Cardinals0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 42 to the Cardinals 20
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 42
The period ended4 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Cardinals 26
2nd quarter54 plays
Rams13Cardinals0
Field goal4 plays, from the Cardinals 31 to the Cardinals 22
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 35 to the Rams 43
Rams13Cardinals3
Field goal21 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Rams 3
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 30
Rams13Cardinals6
Field goal11 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the Rams 25
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 30
Rams13Cardinals9
Field goal16 plays, from the Cardinals 11 to the Rams 30
Rams19Cardinals9
Rams20Cardinals9
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cardinals 14
The period ended6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 30
4th quarter43 plays
The period ended10 plays, from the Cardinals 36 to the Rams 26
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Cardinals 1
Rams20Cardinals12
Field goal21 plays, from the Cardinals 3 to the Rams 13
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -3.5
Closing total
49
Rams moneyline
-171
Cardinals moneyline
+153
Rams closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 49; the game landed 32 — under by 17.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Rams 7 days · Cardinals 7 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Kliff Kingsbury
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(13:42) 14-A.Lee punts 3 yards to ARI 36, Center-46-A.Brewer. 43-J.Gervase to ARI 35 for 1 yard (46-A.Brewer, 89-S.Anderson).
1st · 13:34LA +4% win prob(13:34) 27-D.Henderson up the middle to ARI 31 for 4 yards (20-M.Wilson). PENALTY on LA-70-J.Noteboom, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 35 - No Play.
