For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:10 AM ET · 16 to play
Las Vegas Raiders 22 at Tennessee Titans 24. Final.
Raiders -1.5 upset
The verdict · 2022 Week 3
Tennessee Titans 24, Raiders 22 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:14, on Darren Waller — 14.2 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:14
Darren Waller
Titans
(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Carr pass to 83-D.Waller is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
O 45.5 ✓
Raiders closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tennessee Titans 24–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:14, Titans +14.2% win probability on one snap.
14.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kevin ByardTitansQ4 9:33(9:33) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 83-D.Waller INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at TEN -4. 31-K.Byard to TEN 20 for 24 yards (45-J.Johnson).
12.3pts
Mack HollinsRaidersQ4 2:13(2:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 10-M.Hollins to TEN 25 for 48 yards (39-T.Mitchell).
12.9pts
What separated them
Third down
Titans won this one — 5 of 10 on third down, against Raiders at 1 of 12 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Titans won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Raiders at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Titans won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Titans won this one — +0.44 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at +0.15 expected points per dropback.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Raiders158 of 171 plays carry both curves
Q4 · 1:14Raiders 22 — Titans 24LV ballTEN 74%
Raiders 26%Titans 74%
(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Carr pass to 83-D.Waller is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Swing +14.2 for TitansExpected points +0.95 for TitansThe model had Titans 4 points higher than the market did.play 167
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:14LV +14% win prob(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Carr pass to 83-D.Waller is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
4th · 2:13TEN +13% win prob(2:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 10-M.Hollins to TEN 25 for 48 yards (39-T.Mitchell).
4th · 9:33LV +12% win prob(9:33) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 83-D.Waller INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at TEN -4. 31-K.Byard to TEN 20 for 24 yards (45-J.Johnson).
1st · 5:10TEN +11% win prob(5:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 10-M.Hollins to TEN 21 for 20 yards (39-T.Mitchell).
4th · 1:18TEN +11% win prob(1:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 10-M.Hollins for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:24TEN +10% win prob(:24) (No Huddle) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 2-R.Woods to LV 14 for 41 yards (30-D.Harmon, 24-J.Abram) [91-B.Nichols]. LV-26-R.Ya-Sin was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Geoff Swaim's 2-yard touchdown catch with 7:25 left in the 1st put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:25Geoff Swaim·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan TannehillLead never changed again+70–7
1st2:22Daniel Carlson·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+33–7
Titans ahead 4–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Raiders: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.19Titans: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Raiders: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.44Titans: +0.44 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Raiders: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.09Titans: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 66 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Titans’s 53 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 6, Titans 3.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs 0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TEN's play-action rate, 50.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 1.6 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.8-swing turn from week 2.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.4 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Titans10.2%
right on their number · −3.7 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
NoteTEN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 25.0 points above their season mean of 25.0% and 2.0 times their own 12.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
64Alex BarsG · Every snap100%70 snaps
66Dylan ParhamG · Every snap100%70 snaps
72Jermaine EluemunorG · Every snap100%70 snaps
77Thayer MunfordT · Every snap100%70 snaps
74Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%70 snaps
17Davante AdamsWR · Every snap100%70 snaps
4Derek CarrQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
10Mack HollinsWR · Full-time97%68 snaps
83Darren WallerTE · Heavy rotation73%51 snaps
28Josh JacobsRB · Heavy rotation64%45 snaps
84Keelan ColeWR · Heavy rotation57%40 snaps
87Foster MoreauTE · Heavy rotation50%35 snaps
34Brandon BoldenRB · Rotational36%25 snaps
45Jakob JohnsonFB · Situational23%16 snaps
Inactive · 7
Andre JamesCNeil FarrellDTTrevon MoehrigFSDenzel PerrymanILBBrittain BrownRBJackson BartonTHunter RenfrowWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Jarrett StidhamQBJustin HerronTTyron JohnsonWR
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
55Aaron BrewerC · Every snap100%58 snaps
78Nicholas Petit-FrereT · Every snap100%58 snaps
64Nate DavisG · Every snap100%58 snaps
71Dennis DaleyG · Every snap100%58 snaps
17Ryan TannehillQB · Every snap100%58 snaps
60Ben JonesC · Every snap100%58 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Heavy rotation74%43 snaps
2Robert WoodsWR · Heavy rotation72%42 snaps
87Geoff SwaimTE · Heavy rotation69%40 snaps
16Treylon BurksWR · Heavy rotation69%40 snaps
15Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Heavy rotation57%33 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass−14% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Carr pass to 83-D.Waller is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q4 1:14 · Raiders · — at TEN 2 · gained nothing · -0.95 EP · −14.3% win probability
157 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, manual charting on 143. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 81 yards from the LV 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
41%
Yards
757
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.0181%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25+0.2176%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.5737%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.3721%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.38100%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Raiders0Titans6
Raiders0Titans7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Raiders 2
Raiders3Titans7
Field goal11 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Titans 3
The period ended6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 45
2nd quarter47 plays
Raiders3Titans13
Raiders3Titans14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Raiders 14 to the Raiders 1
Raiders9Titans14
Raiders10Titans14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Titans 1
Raiders10Titans20
Raiders10Titans21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Raiders 1
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Raiders 40
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 13 to the Titans 30
The period ended5 plays, from the Raiders 13 to the Raiders 19
Raiders10Titans24
Field goal6 plays, from the Raiders 49 to the Raiders 30
3rd quarter35 plays
Raiders13Titans24
Field goal17 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Titans 9
Intercepted6 plays
Punt6 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Titans 2 to the Titans 37
4th quarter56 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from midfield to the Raiders 41
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Raiders 44 to the Titans 6
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 46
Raiders16Titans24
Field goal8 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Titans 17
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 26
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Raiders22Titans24
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Touchdown19 plays, from the Raiders 19 to the Titans 9
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Raiders -1.5
Closing total
45.5
Raiders moneyline
-130
Titans moneyline
+117
Raiders closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 46 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 71°F at kickoff; breezy at 15 mph out of the north-west; 0.18 in of precipitation; moderate rain.
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
Raiders 7 days · Titans 6 days
Coaches
Josh McDaniels vs Mike Vrabel
4th · 1:37TEN +9% win prob(1:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 83-D.Waller. PENALTY on TEN-20-L.Johnson, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 14 - No Play.
1st · 14:21TEN +8% win prob(14:21) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 22-D.Henry to TEN 45 for 23 yards (39-N.Hobbs).
