2022 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 25, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium

New Orleans Saints

Carolina PanthersWinner

NO -2 upsetU 41 ✓Saints closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Carolina Panthers 22–14. Biggest swing: Q1 5:44, NO +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 5:44NO 0 — CAR 6NO ball · 1st & 10NO 64%

(5:44) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to NO 43 for -2 yards (49-F.Luvu). FUMBLES (49-F.Luvu), touched at NO 42, RECOVERED by CAR-98-M.Haynes at NO 44. 98-M.Haynes for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-81-N.Vannett, Offensive

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 5:44NO +22% win prob(5:44) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to NO 43 for -2 yards (49-F.Luvu). FUMBLES (49-F.Luvu), touched at NO 42, RECOVERED by CAR-98-M.Haynes at NO 44. 98-M.Haynes for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-81-N.Vannett, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q4 · 12:19CAR +14% win prob(12:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 15-L.Shenault for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:53CAR +11% win prob(:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep right to 12-C.Olave to CAR 18 for 49 yards (24-C.Henderson).
Q2 · 0:33NO +8% win prob(:33) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-H.Anderson), Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin, recovered by NO-4-B.Gillikin at CAR 24.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 5:44CAR Touchdown
(5:44) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to NO 43 for -2 yards (49-F.Luvu). FUMBLES (49-F.Luvu), touched at NO 42, RECOVERED by CAR-98-M.Haynes at NO 44. 98-M.Haynes for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-81-N.Vannett, Offensive Holding, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 0 — CAR 7
Q2 · 14:22CAR Field goal
(14:22) 4-E.Pineiro 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: NO 0 — CAR 10
Q2 · 3:00CAR Field goal
(3:00) 4-E.Pineiro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: NO 0 — CAR 13
Q4 · 12:35NO Touchdown
(12:35) 22-M.Ingram up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 7 — CAR 13
Q4 · 12:19CAR Touchdown
(12:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 15-L.Shenault for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: NO 7 — CAR 19
Q4 · 8:23CAR Field goal
(8:23) 4-E.Pineiro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: NO 7 — CAR 22
Q4 · 2:29NO Touchdown
(2:29) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Callaway for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 14 — CAR 22

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Panthers
Offensive plays	64	59
Total yards	426 (edge)	294
Yards per play	6.7 (edge)	5.0
Expected points added / play	-0.06 (edge)	-0.13
Success rate	47% (edge)	32%
Dropback rate	66%	47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.19 (edge)	-0.17
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.54	-0.09 (edge)
Third downs	5/13 (edge)	4/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	6
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Saints outgained Panthers 426–294 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Jameis WinstonQB

25/41, 353 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

7.9 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Baker MayfieldQB

12/25, 170 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-4.8 expected points added · -19.4% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

25 att, 108 yds, 0 TD

-4.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

15 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

-9.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Chris OlaveWR

9/13 for 147 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Tre'Quan SmithWR

4/5 for 105 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 6.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 27	6	15	2:23	Punt
2	NO	NO 11	9	67	5:16	Punt
3	CAR	CAR 20	4	4	0:55	Punt
4	NO	NO 30	2	-3	0:54	Defensive touchdown
5	NO	NO 25	5	4	1:06	Punt
6	CAR	CAR 33	10	40	5:10	Field goal +3
7	NO	NO 25	5	11	2:32	Punt
8	CAR	CAR 29	4	-4	1:39	Punt
9	NO	NO 35	4	13	1:33	Punt
10	CAR	CAR 18	10	52	5:36	Field goal +3
11	NO	NO 19	11	70	2:29	Missed field goal
12	CAR	CAR 24	2	-6	0:27	End of half
13	NO	NO 8	15	62	7:44	Missed field goal
14	CAR	CAR 38	5	24	2:10	Turnover on downs
15	NO	NO 38	4	6	1:17	Punt
16	CAR	CAR 19	7	37	2:50	Punt
17	NO	NO 11	11	89	3:28	Touchdown +7
18	CAR	CAR 33	4	67	0:25	Touchdown +6
19	NO	NO 25	4	11	0:47	Interception
20	CAR	NO 35	7	19	3:00	Field goal +3
21	NO	NO 25	5	6	1:29	Punt
22	CAR	CAR 14	7	37	3:22	Punt
23	NO	NO 10	4	90	1:06	Touchdown +7
24	CAR	CAR 46	5	9	2:05	Punt
25	NO	NO 1	1	0	0:09	Interception
26	CAR	50	1	0	0:08	End of game

6 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 90 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jameis Winston	25/41	353	1	2	1	7.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	15	61	4.1	0	-9.9
Mark Ingram	5	18	3.6	1	-0.2
Jameis Winston	2	5	2.5	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Olave	9	13	147	0	33%	4.3
Tre'Quan Smith	4	5	105	0	13%	6.8
Michael Thomas	5	5	49	0	13%	4.9
Jarvis Landry	2	5	22	0	13%	-3.0
Alvin Kamara	2	7	12	0	18%	-2.5
Adam Trautman	1	1	9	0	3%	0.7
Nick Vannett	1	1	5	0	3%	0.0
Marquez Callaway	1	1	4	1	3%	1.0
Juwan Johnson	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Pete Werner	6	4	0.0	0
Shy Tuttle	4	2	0.0	0
P.J. Williams	2	4	0.0	2
Demario Davis	2	3	1.0	1
Cameron Jordan	2	2	1.0	0
Bradley Roby	3	1	0.0	1
Tyrann Mathieu	2	2	0.0	0
David Onyemata	2	1	0.0	0
J.T. Gray	1	2	0.5	0
Carl Granderson	1	2	0.5	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	12/25	170	1	0	3	-4.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	25	108	4.3	-4.5
Chuba Hubbard	3	25	8.3	1.1
D.J. Moore	2	13	6.5	0.6
Baker Mayfield	1	-1	-1.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Laviska Shenault Jr.	2	2	90	1	8%	8.8
Shi Smith	2	2	22	0	8%	1.2
Giovanni Ricci	1	2	15	0	8%	-1.6
Robbie Chosen	1	4	14	0	17%	-2.0
Ian Thomas	2	3	13	0	13%	0.1
Christian McCaffrey	2	4	7	0	17%	-1.8
Tommy Tremble	1	1	7	0	4%	-0.2
D.J. Moore	1	6	2	0	25%	-5.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jeremy Chinn	6	2	1.0	0	2
Frankie Luvu	4	1	0.0	0	0
C.J. Henderson	5	0	0.0	0	0
Shaq Thompson	4	0	0.0	0	1
Cory Littleton	3	1	0.0	0	0
Donte Jackson	3	0	0.0	0	0
Myles Hartsfield	3	0	0.0	0	0
Marquis Haynes	1	1	0.0	0	0
Stantley Thomas-Oliver	2	0	0.0	0	0
Jaycee Horn	1	1	0.0	1	3

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -2
Closing total: 41
NO moneyline: -123
CAR moneyline: +112

Saints closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41; the game landed 36 — under by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: NO 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Dennis Allen vs Matt Rhule

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.