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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:57 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 25, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 3
It turned at Q1 5:44, 1st and 10, on Alvin Kamara — 21.6 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:44 · 1st and 10
Alvin Kamara
Panthers
(5:44) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to NO 43 for -2 yards (49-F.Luvu). FUMBLES (49-F.Luvu), touched at NO 42, RECOVERED by CAR-98-M.Haynes at NO 44. 98-M.Haynes for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-81-N.Vannett, Offensive Holding, declined.
Carolina Panthers 22–14. Biggest swing: Q1 5:44, Panthers +21.6% win probability on one snap.
21.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Panthers won this one — no giveaways, against Saints at 3 giveaways.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Panthers won this one — -0.09 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.54 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Panthers at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(5:44) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to NO 43 for -2 yards (49-F.Luvu). FUMBLES (49-F.Luvu), touched at NO 42, RECOVERED by CAR-98-M.Haynes at NO 44. 98-M.Haynes for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-81-N.Vannett, Offensive
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Marquis Haynes's 44-yard touchdown with 5:44 left in the 1st put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Marquis Haynes44-yd defence TD44-yard touchdownthe defence scored itLead never changed again+70–7
Laviska Shenault Jr.67-yd TD catch67-yard touchdown catchfrom Baker Mayfield · two-point no good+67–197 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Saintscategory by categoryPanthers
Saints ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 64 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Panthers’s 59 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Saints 4, Panthers 2.
Saints outgained Panthers 426-294 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's sack or hit rate turned over: 5.7% in week 2 against 17.9% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Saints-5.5 ptsright on their number · +1.3 vs their -6.8 pts, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 64 snaps
Panthers-1.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · +7.2 vs their -8.4 pts, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 93%
Tendencies room →Saints58.8%inside their normal wobble · +8.8 vs their 50.1%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 51 early downs
Panthers41.9%right on their number · −7.8 vs their 49.7%, and they swing ±16.8 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 56%
Tendencies room →Saints7.1%leaned — dropped back clean · −6.3 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Panthers39.3%leaned — faked the run · +13.4 vs their 25.9%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -39% to 88%
Fourth Down room →Saints—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 14.2%.
Panthers20.0%right on their number · −4.5 vs their 24.5%, and they swing ±24.8 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16% to 58%
Tendencies room →Saints17.9%right on their number · −0.3 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Panthers28.6%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 33%
Tendencies room →Saints17.9%leaned — got home · +5.0 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Panthers14.3%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
CAR's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 39.3%, 13.4 points above their season mean of 25.9% and 1.1 times their own 11.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
25/41, 353 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
7.9 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
12/25, 170 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-4.8 expected points added · -19.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Laviska Shenault Jr. banked 14.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris OlaveWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.7 | +5.3 | 77% | 93% | 33% | 34% | 9/13, 147 yd |
| Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 17.0 | +14.0 | 18% | 18% | 8% | 1% | 2/2, 90 yd, 1 TD |
| Jameis WinstonQB · Starter QB | 14.6 | −0.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/41, 353 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 2 car, 5 yd |
| Tre'Quan SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.5 | +5.8 | 61% | 57% | 13% | 26% | 4/5, 105 yd |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.5 | −6.0 | 80% | 75% | 17% | 1% | 25 car, 108 yd · 2/4, 7 yd |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 10.7 | +1.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 12/25, 170 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Michael ThomasWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.9 | +2.5 | 68% | 69% | 13% | 8% | 5/5, 49 yd |
| Mark IngramRB | 7.8 | +4.7 | 33% | 36% | 0% | — | 5 car, 18 yd, 1 TD |
| Marquez CallawayWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.4 | +4.7 | 19% | 24% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd, 1 TD |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Bell Cow Back | 7.3 | −10.3 | 70% | 69% | 18% | 5% | 15 car, 61 yd · 2/7, 12 yd |
| Shi SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | +0.8 | 36% | 46% | 8% | 10% | 2/2, 22 yd |
| Jarvis LandryWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −3.8 | 30% | 33% | 13% | 16% | 2/5, 22 yd |
| Ian ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −1.3 | 62% | 54% | 13% | 1% | 2/3, 13 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB | 2.5 | +1.1 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Giovanni RicciTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −0.6 | 51% | 39% | 8% | 3% | 1/2, 15 yd |
| D.J. MooreWR · Alpha Receiver | 2.5 | −7.5 | 98% | 100% | 25% | 36% | 2 car, 13 yd · 1/6, 2 yd |
| Robbie ChosenWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −4.6 | 84% | 86% | 17% | 44% | 1/4, 14 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.4 | 64% | 48% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.1 | 39% | 43% | 4% | 4% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Nick VannettTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dwayne WashingtonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −0.9 | 68% | 62% | 3% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:44) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to NO 43 for -2 yards (49-F.Luvu). FUMBLES (49-F.Luvu), touched at NO 42, RECOVERED by CAR-98-M.Haynes at NO 44. 98-M.Haynes for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-81-N.Vannett, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q1 5:44 · Saints · 1st & 10 at NO 45 · lost 3 · -9.15 EP · −23.2% win probability
162 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 175 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 90 yards from the NO 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Saints0
Panthers6Saints0Panthers7Saints0Panthers10Saints0Panthers13Saints6Panthers13Saints7Panthers13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Saints7Panthers19Saints7Panthers22Saints13Panthers22Saints14Panthers22Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Saints at Panthers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 25/41 | 353 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +7.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 15 | 61 | 4.1 | 0 | −9.9 |
| Mark Ingram | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 1 | −0.2 |
| Jameis Winston | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 9 | 13 | 147 | 0 | 33% | +4.3 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 4 | 5 | 105 | 0 | 13% | +6.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Werner | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shy Tuttle | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| P.J. Williams | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Demario Davis |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 12/25 | 170 | 1 | 0 | 3 | −4.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_03_NO_CAR
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Saints closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41; the game landed 36 — under by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Michael Thomas | 5 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 13% | +4.9 |
| Jarvis Landry | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 13% | −3.0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 18% | −2.5 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.0 |
| Marquez Callaway | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3% | +1.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.3 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Cameron Jordan | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Roby | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Onyemata | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.T. Gray | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 |
| 108 |
| 4.3 |
| 0 |
| −4.5 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 | +1.1 |
| D.J. Moore | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 2 | 90 | 1 | 8% | +8.8 |
| Shi Smith | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 8% | +1.2 |
| Giovanni Ricci | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 8% | −1.6 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 17% | −2.0 |
| Ian Thomas | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 13% | +0.1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 17% | −1.8 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| D.J. Moore | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 25% | −5.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Chinn | 6 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Frankie Luvu | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Henderson | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaq Thompson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cory Littleton | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donte Jackson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Hartsfield | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquis Haynes | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stantley Thomas-Oliver | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaycee Horn | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
