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Philadelphia Eagles 24 at Washington Commanders 8. Final.
Eagles -6 ✓U 47 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 3
Philadelphia Eagles 24, Commanders 8 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 14:12, 2nd and 6, on Carson Wentz — 7.1 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 14:12 · 2nd and 6
Carson Wentz
Eagles
(14:12) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at WAS 23 for -6 yards (55-B.Graham). FUMBLES (55-B.Graham) [55-B.Graham], RECOVERED by PHI-97-J.Hargrave at WAS 24.
Eagles closed -6 and covered, winning by 16.
Philadelphia Eagles 24–8. Biggest swing: Q2 14:12, Eagles +7.1% win probability on one snap.
7.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.J. BrownEaglesQ1 1:45(1:45) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 11-A.Brown to PHI 39 for 13 yards (22-D.Forrest).
4.9pts
DeVonta SmithEaglesQ1 1:20(1:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith ran ob at WAS 16 for 45 yards (25-B.St-Juste).
6.7pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.37 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.36 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — -0.16 expected points per carry, against Eagles at -0.52 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.03 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.31 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Commanders at 4 chunk plays.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Eagles177 of 188 plays carry both curves
(14:12) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at WAS 23 for -6 yards (55-B.Graham). FUMBLES (55-B.Graham) [55-B.Graham], RECOVERED by PHI-97-J.Hargrave at WAS 24.
Swing −7.1 for CommandersExpected points −5.42 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 21 points higher than the market did.play 43
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 14:12PHI +7% win prob(14:12) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at WAS 23 for -6 yards (55-B.Graham). FUMBLES (55-B.Graham) [55-B.Graham], RECOVERED by PHI-97-J.Hargrave at WAS 24.
1st · 1:20WAS +7% win prob(1:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith ran ob at WAS 16 for 45 yards (25-B.St-Juste).
1st · 1:45WAS +5% win prob(1:45) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 11-A.Brown to PHI 39 for 13 yards (22-D.Forrest).
1st · 13:57PHI +5% win prob(13:57) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at WAS 38 for -7 yards (sack split by 94-J.Sweat and 91-F.Cox).
1st · 3:55PHI +4% win prob(3:55) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at WAS 39 for -8 yards (sack split by 55-B.Graham and 7-H.Reddick).
2nd · 14:56WAS +4% win prob(14:56) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jake Elliott's 32-yard field goal with 14:56 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd14:56Jake Elliott·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder A.Siposs · snap R.LovatoLead never changed again+33–0
4th14:10Daron Payne·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+224–2
4th2:00Antonio Gibson·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+624–8
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryCommanders
Eagles8–1Commanders
403Total yards240
6.1Yards per play3.2
36%Success rate36%
33%Third-down rate35%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays4
19First downs17
3Sacks taken9
0Turnovers1
The read
Eagles ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Eagles: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.31Commanders: −0.31 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.37Eagles: +0.37 expected points added per play
−0.36Commanders: −0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.52Eagles: −0.52 expected points added per play
−0.16Commanders: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 66 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Commanders’s 75 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 5, Commanders 3.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.31.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's sack or hit rate turned over: 14.0% in week 2 against 28.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
WAS's play-action rate turned over: 37.0% in week 2 against 3.6% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 21 pts
leaned — got home · +10.8 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.72× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Commanders17.1%
right on their number · −1.7 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NotePHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.6%, 10.8 points above their season mean of 17.7% and 1.7 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Wentz sacked−13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(14:12) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at WAS 23 for -6 yards (55-B.Graham). FUMBLES (55-B.Graham) [55-B.Graham], RECOVERED by PHI-97-J.Hargrave at WAS 24.
Q2 14:12 · Commanders · 2nd & 6 at WAS 29 · lost 5 · -5.42 EP · −13.3% win probability
175 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 188 snaps, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 93 yards from the WAS 6 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
39%
Yards
640
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR68-0.3474%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.1267%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.0840%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.0143%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.4920%
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 45
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 12 to the Commanders 49
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 16 to the Commanders 47
The period ended7 plays, from the Eagles 22 to the Commanders 14
2nd quarter60 plays
Eagles3Commanders0
Field goal2 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 29
Eagles9Commanders0
Eagles10Commanders0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Commanders 23
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 40
The period ended9 plays, from the Eagles 6 to the Commanders 8
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 9 to the Commanders 20
Eagles16Commanders0
Eagles17Commanders0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Eagles 36 to the Commanders 9
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 28
Eagles23Commanders0
Eagles24Commanders0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Eagles 12 to the Commanders 1
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Commanders 35
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 27
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 21 to the Eagles 45
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 11 to the Commanders 19
Punt4 plays
The period ended16 plays, from the Commanders 6 to the Eagles 4
4th quarter50 plays
Turnover on downs2 plays, from the Eagles 14 to the Eagles 1
Eagles24Commanders2
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Commanders 39 to the Eagles 14
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 32 to the Eagles 45
Eagles24Commanders8
Touchdown14 plays, from the Commanders 13 to the Eagles 1
The period ended11 plays, from the Commanders 45 to the Commanders 29
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -6
Closing total
47
Eagles moneyline
-240
Commanders moneyline
+210
Eagles closed -6 and covered, winning by 16.
Total closed 47; the game landed 32 — under by 15.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 76°F at kickoff; breezy at 10 mph out of the south-west; 0.21 in of precipitation; partly cloudy.
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
Eagles 6 days · Commanders 7 days
Coaches
Nick Sirianni vs Ron Rivera
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 2:27
PHI +4% win prob
(2:27) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders up the middle to PHI 26 for -1 yards (93-J.Allen, 94-D.Payne).
1st · 12:33WAS +3% win prob(12:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 16-Q.Watkins. PENALTY on WAS-37-R.Wildgoose, Defensive Pass Interference, 23 yards, enforced at PHI 12 - No Play.
