For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 3 · Thu, Sep 22, 2022 · FirstEnergy Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 3
It turned at Q2 0:34, 4th and 2, on Amari Cooper — 14.1 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:34 · 4th and 2
Amari Cooper
Steelers
(:34) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 2-A.Cooper to PIT 28 for 3 yards (55-D.Bush). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 2-A.Cooper.
Cleveland Browns 29–17. Biggest swing: Q2 0:34, Steelers +14.1% win probability on one snap. Played in 18.2 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
14.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Browns won this one — 6 of 16 on third down, against Steelers at 1 of 9 on third down.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Browns won this one — +0.04 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Browns won this one — no giveaways, against Steelers at 1 giveaway.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Browns won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.04 expected points per snap.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(:34) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 2-A.Cooper to PIT 28 for 3 yards (55-D.Bush). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete s
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Cade York's 34-yard field goal with 2:34 left in the 3rd put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
David Njoku7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Jacoby Brissett · kick no good, hit right upright+67–13
Cade York34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap C.HughlettLead never changed again+314–168 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categoryBrowns
Browns ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 55 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Browns’s 71 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 3, Browns 4.
Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers-7.1 ptsright on their number · −3.4 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 55 snaps
Browns-8.1 ptsright on their number · −0.7 vs their -7.4 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 71 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 83%
Tendencies room →Steelers52.2%right on their number · +0.4 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 46 early downs
Browns43.1%inside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 43%
Tendencies room →Steelers9.1%inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Browns6.1%leaned — dropped back clean · −12.7 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−1.36× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -47% to 120%
Fourth Down room →Steelers0.0%inside their normal wobble · −18.3 vs their 18.3%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Browns80.0%inside their normal wobble · +22.6 vs their 57.4%, and they swing ±23.1 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 65%
Tendencies room →Steelers27.3%right on their number · −1.0 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Browns18.2%right on their number · −5.5 vs their 23.7%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 29%
Tendencies room →Steelers9.1%inside their normal wobble · −3.6 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Browns6.1%inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
CLE's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 6.1%, 12.7 points below their season mean of 18.8% and 1.4 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 8 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 8
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · CLE
21/31, 220 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
1.5 expected points added · -0.8% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
20/32, 207 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-1.4 expected points added · +0.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
David Njoku banked 6.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David NjokuTE · Alpha Receiver | 23.9 | +6.5 | 88% | 88% | 32% | 23% | 9/10, 89 yd, 1 TD |
| Amari CooperWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.1 | +4.7 | 82% | 97% | 35% | 66% | 7/11, 101 yd, 1 TD |
| Jacoby BrissettQB · Starter QB | 17.9 | +4.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/31, 220 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 11 yd |
| Nick ChubbRB · Bell Cow Back | 17.3 | +2.0 | 63% | 58% | 3% | 1% | 23 car, 113 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.4 | +0.9 | 98% | 100% | 34% | 37% | 8/11, 84 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB · Bell Cow Back | 15.1 | +3.8 | 80% | 82% | 9% | 0% | 15 car, 56 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 5 yd |
| Mitchell TrubiskyQB · Starter QB | 15.0 | +1.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/32, 207 yd · 2 car, 7 yd, 1 TD |
| Kareem HuntRB · Committee Back | 9.1 | −8.3 | 44% | 52% | 13% | 0% | 12 car, 47 yd · 3/4, 14 yd |
| Chase ClaypoolWR · Featured Receiver | 7.6 | −1.3 | 93% | 100% | 19% | 22% | 1 car, 11 yd · 3/6, 35 yd |
| George PickensWR · Featured Receiver | 6.9 | −3.1 | 76% | 88% | 22% | 26% | 3/7, 39 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | +0.1 | 76% | 85% | 13% | 17% | 2/4, 41 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | 4.3 | +1.0 | 20% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 4 car, 30 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −2.0 | 88% | 85% | 10% | 8% | 1/3, 10 yd |
| David BellWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.4 | 56% | 58% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Jerome FordRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Miller ForristallTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Chester RogersWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Miles BoykinWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:34) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 2-A.Cooper to PIT 28 for 3 yards (55-D.Bush). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 2-A.Cooper.
Q2 0:34 · Browns · 4th & 2 at PIT 31 · gained nothing · -2.20 EP · −15.2% win probability
162 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 177 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps, manual charting on 148. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 80 yards from the CLE 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Steelers0
Browns6Steelers0Browns7Steelers6Browns7Steelers7Browns7Steelers7Browns13Steelers13Browns13Steelers14Browns13How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Steelers14Browns16Steelers14Browns22Steelers14Browns23Steelers17Browns23Steelers17Browns29Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Browns, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 20/32 | 207 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −1.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 1 | +1.0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 | +2.9 |
| Chase Claypool | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 8 | 11 | 84 | 0 | 34% | −6.0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 13% | +0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Jack | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Bush | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Highsmith | 6 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Heyward |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 21/31 | 220 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_03_PIT_CLE
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Browns closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 12.
Total closed 38; the game landed 46 — over by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
Wind at 18.2 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| Mitchell Trubisky | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 1 | +1.2 |
| George Pickens | 3 | 7 | 39 | 0 | 22% | −0.3 |
| Chase Claypool | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 19% | +0.3 |
| Najee Harris | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 9% | −0.9 |
| Jaylen Warren | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Cameron Sutton | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ahkello Witherspoon | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Wormley | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Wallace | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jamir Jones | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 |
| 113 |
| 4.9 |
| 1 |
| +1.5 |
| Kareem Hunt | 12 | 47 | 3.9 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | +3.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 7 | 11 | 101 | 1 | 35% | +3.0 |
| David Njoku | 9 | 10 | 89 | 1 | 32% | +6.4 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 13% | −1.8 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 10% | −0.5 |
| David Bell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Nick Chubb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Miller Forristall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Phillips | 1 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Anthony Walker | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Ward | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Grant Delpit | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Johnson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaac Rochell | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Martin Emerson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sione Takitaki | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Fields | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Elliott | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
