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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:18 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 25, 2022 · Empower Field at Mile High
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 3
It turned at Q4 2:13, 1st and 10, on Jonas Griffith — 35.4 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:13 · 1st and 10
Jonas Griffith
Broncos
(2:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle intended for 19-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 50-J.Griffith (22-K.Jackson) at DEN 41. 50-J.Griffith to DEN 42 for 1 yard (19-D.Samuel).
Denver Broncos 11–10 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:13, Broncos +35.4% win probability on one snap.
35.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 3 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Broncos at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Broncos won this one — 6 of 18 on third down, against 49ers at 1 of 10 on third down.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 40% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 29% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
(2:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle intended for 19-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 50-J.Griffith (22-K.Jackson) at DEN 41. 50-J.Griffith to DEN 42 for 1 yard (19-D.Samuel).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Melvin Gordon's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 4:13 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Melvin Gordon1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no goodLead never changed again+610–115 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryBroncos
Deadlocked at 3–3 categories. Biggest gap to Broncos, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 52 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Broncos’s 68 at 60%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 1, Broncos 2.
49ers outgained Broncos 267-264 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's pass rate over expected turned over: −18.2 pts in week 2 against +2.5 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
SF's early-down pass rate turned over: 25.0% in week 2 against 57.1% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →49ers2.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · +6.6 vs their -4.1 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.89× that swing) · 52 snaps
Broncos-4.8 ptsright on their number · −2.3 vs their -2.5 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 67 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 15% to 81%
Tendencies room →49ers57.1%inside their normal wobble · +9.4 vs their 47.7%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 42 early downs
Broncos49.0%inside their normal wobble · −7.2 vs their 56.1%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 46%
Tendencies room →49ers18.2%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Broncos20.0%right on their number · +1.8 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26% to 78%
Fourth Down room →49ers0.0%leaned — took the kick · −24.8 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±19.8 week to week (−1.25× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Broncos0.0%leaned — took the kick · −26.1 vs their 26.1%, and they swing ±20.1 week to week (−1.30× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 59%
Tendencies room →49ers12.5%inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Broncos24.2%right on their number · −5.6 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 31%
Tendencies room →49ers22.0%inside their normal wobble · +4.5 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Broncos21.2%leaned — got home · +9.1 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+1.65× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
DEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 21.2%, 9.1 points above their season mean of 12.1% and 1.6 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
18/29, 211 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-5.7 expected points added · -6.5% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
20/33, 184 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-11.8 expected points added · -4.9% completion over expected
Receiving · DEN
8/10 for 97 yds, 0 TD
31% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Kendall Hinton banked 2.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland SuttonWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.7 | +2.0 | 86% | 90% | 31% | 41% | 8/10, 97 yd |
| Melvin GordonRB · Committee Back | 16.5 | −0.5 | 38% | 37% | 19% | 0% | 12 car, 26 yd, 1 TD · 5/6, 29 yd |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.9 | −3.6 | 79% | 88% | 28% | 23% | 5 car, 6 yd · 5/8, 73 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.9 | −4.3 | 89% | 91% | 28% | 47% | 3/8, 39 yd, 1 TD |
| Jeffery WilsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.6 | +1.2 | 73% | 67% | 10% | 3% | 12 car, 75 yd · 3/3, 31 yd |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 9.1 | −4.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/33, 184 yd · 6 car, 17 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 9.0 | −4.9 | 45% | 34% | 16% | 0% | 15 car, 58 yd · 3/5, 2 yd |
| Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Starter QB | 8.4 | −3.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/29, 211 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 0 yd |
| George KittleTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.8 | −0.6 | 91% | 94% | 17% | 5% | 4/5, 28 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Featured Receiver | 3.7 | −6.6 | 59% | 73% | 19% | 34% | 2/6, 17 yd |
| Kendall HintonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +2.2 | 43% | 54% | 3% | 11% | 1/1, 27 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 3.4 | +1.7 | 63% | 58% | 3% | 10% | 1/1, 24 yd |
| Albert OkwuegbunamTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −0.8 | 32% | 51% | 6% | 3% | 1/2, 12 yd |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.5 | 18% | 21% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −2.7 | 46% | 52% | 10% | 9% | 1/3, 5 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB | 0.7 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Mike BooneRB | 0.0 | −1.4 | 19% | 24% | 3% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 47% | 27% | 3% | 11% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Montrell WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 19% | 15% | 0% | — | No touches. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle intended for 19-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 50-J.Griffith (22-K.Jackson) at DEN 41. 50-J.Griffith to DEN 42 for 1 yard (19-D.Samuel).
Q4 2:13 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at SF 48 · gained nothing · -4.06 EP · −34.0% win probability
161 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 172 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps, manual charting on 152. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
4 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 80 yards from the DEN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
49ers6
Broncos049ers7Broncos049ers7Broncos3How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
49ers7Broncos549ers10Broncos5How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
49ers10Broncos11How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Broncos, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 18/29 | 211 | 1 | 1 | 4 | −5.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffery Wilson | 12 | 75 | 6.3 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Deebo Samuel | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel | 5 | 8 | 73 | 0 | 28% | −0.8 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 3 | 8 | 39 | 1 | 28% | −1.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dre Greenlaw | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Warner | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Moseley | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Charvarius Ward |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 20/33 | 184 | 0 | 0 | 4 | −11.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_03_SF_DEN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44; the game landed 21 — under by 23.0.
Conditions and crew
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −5.1 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 10% | −3.0 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 17% | −0.6 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 3% | +1.6 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 10% | −0.6 |
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Tashaun Gipson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hassan Ridgeway | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevin Givens | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Omenihu | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 |
| 58 |
| 3.9 |
| 0 |
| −2.5 |
| Melvin Gordon | 12 | 26 | 2.2 | 1 | −2.6 |
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 | −3.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 8 | 10 | 97 | 0 | 31% | +5.4 |
| Melvin Gordon | 5 | 6 | 29 | 0 | 19% | −0.8 |
| Kendall Hinton | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 3% | +3.0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 19% | −4.4 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 6% | −1.8 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16% | −4.6 |
| Eric Saubert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Mike Boone | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josey Jewell | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kareem Jackson | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| P.J. Locke | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Purcell | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K'Waun Williams | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Singleton | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonas Griffith | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ronald Darby | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caden Sterns | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bradley Chubb | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
