2022 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 25, 2022 · Empower Field at Mile High

San Francisco 49ers

Denver BroncosWinner

SF -1 upsetU 44 ✓49ers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Denver Broncos 11–10 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:13, SF +35% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:13SF 10 — DEN 11SF ball · 1st & 10SF 58%

(2:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle intended for 19-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 50-J.Griffith (22-K.Jackson) at DEN 41. 50-J.Griffith to DEN 42 for 1 yard (19-D.Samuel).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:13SF +35% win prob(2:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle intended for 19-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 50-J.Griffith (22-K.Jackson) at DEN 41. 50-J.Griffith to DEN 42 for 1 yard (19-D.Samuel).
Q4 · 1:42SF +19% win prob(1:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at SF 3 for -12 yards (55-B.Chubb).
Q4 · 1:15SF +17% win prob(1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 22-J.Wilson to SF 19 for 16 yards (6-P.Locke). FUMBLES (6-P.Locke), RECOVERED by DEN-22-K.Jackson at SF 24. 22-K.Jackson to SF 24 for no gain (22-J.Wilson).
Q3 · 3:51SF +13% win prob(3:51) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:58SF Touchdown
(7:58) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 7 — DEN 0
Q2 · 12:00DEN Field goal
(12:00) 8-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: SF 7 — DEN 3
Q3 · 9:56DEN Safety
(9:56) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked ob in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (98-M.Purcell). SF-71-T.Williams was injured during the play.
Score after this play: SF 7 — DEN 5
Q4 · 14:14SF Field goal
(14:14) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: SF 10 — DEN 5
Q4 · 4:13DEN Touchdown
(4:13) 76-C.Anderson reported in as eligible. 25-M.Gordon left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: SF 10 — DEN 11

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Broncos
Offensive plays	52	68
Total yards	267 (edge)	264
Yards per play	5.1 (edge)	3.9
Expected points added / play	-0.30	-0.25 (edge)
Success rate	40% (edge)	29%
Dropback rate	63%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.28 (edge)	-0.28
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.34	-0.19 (edge)
Third downs	1/10	6/18 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	12	14 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	4
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

49ers outgained Broncos 267–264 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

18/29, 211 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-5.7 expected points added · -6.5% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

20/33, 184 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-11.8 expected points added · -4.9% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Jeffery WilsonRB

12 att, 75 yds, 0 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Javonte WilliamsRB

15 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

-2.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

8/10 for 97 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

5/8 for 73 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · -0.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 10	7	16	2:10	Punt
2	DEN	DEN 29	4	3	1:43	Punt
3	SF	SF 25	7	75	3:11	Touchdown +7
4	DEN	DEN 25	5	3	0:51	Punt
5	SF	SF 19	5	12	2:44	Punt
6	DEN	DEN 20	4	5	1:28	Punt
7	SF	SF 25	6	24	2:46	Punt
8	DEN	DEN 6	8	57	3:11	Field goal +3
9	SF	SF 15	6	48	2:39	Punt
10	DEN	DEN 1	12	58	6:50	Punt
11	SF	SF 3	4	6	0:55	Punt
12	DEN	50	4	14	0:32	Punt
13	SF	SF 11	3	5	1:00	End of half
14	DEN	DEN 25	5	-4	1:13	Punt
15	SF	SF 43	2	7	1:06	Fumble
16	DEN	50	4	1	2:10	Punt
17	SF	SF 2	2	-2	0:38	Safety
18	DEN	DEN 19	12	36	6:07	Missed field goal
19	SF	SF 43	5	10	2:08	Punt
20	DEN	DEN 6	4	-3	1:09	Punt
21	SF	DEN 41	4	8	1:19	Field goal +3
22	DEN	DEN 25	5	9	1:42	Punt
23	SF	SF 13	5	31	2:14	Punt
24	DEN	DEN 20	13	80	6:04	Touchdown +6
25	SF	SF 25	6	23	2:04	Interception
26	DEN	DEN 42	4	5	0:24	Punt
27	SF	SF 15	2	4	0:37	Fumble
28	DEN	SF 24	3	0	1:05	End of game

4 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 80 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	18/29	211	1	1	4	-5.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jeffery Wilson	12	75	6.3	0.1
Jordan Mason	1	7	7.0	0.2
Deebo Samuel	5	6	1.2	-1.7
Jimmy Garoppolo	1	0	0.0	-5.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Deebo Samuel	5	8	73	0	28%	-0.8
Brandon Aiyuk	3	8	39	1	28%	-1.1
Jeffery Wilson	3	3	31	0	10%	-3.0
George Kittle	4	5	28	0	17%	-0.6
Kyle Juszczyk	1	1	24	0	3%	1.6
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	1	11	0	3%	0.7
Jauan Jennings	1	3	5	0	10%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Dre Greenlaw	3	5	0.0	0
Fred Warner	4	3	0.0	1
Emmanuel Moseley	3	3	0.0	1
Charvarius Ward	1	5	0.0	1
Tashaun Gipson	4	1	0.0	0
Azeez Al-Shaair	2	3	0.0	0
Hassan Ridgeway	1	3	0.0	0
Deommodore Lenoir	1	2	0.0	1
Kevin Givens	1	2	1.0	0
Charles Omenihu	1	2	0.0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	20/33	184	0	0	4	-11.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Javonte Williams	15	58	3.9	0	-2.5
Melvin Gordon	12	26	2.2	1	-2.6
Russell Wilson	6	17	2.8	0	-3.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Courtland Sutton	8	10	97	31%	5.4
Melvin Gordon	5	6	29	19%	-0.8
Kendall Hinton	1	1	27	3%	3.0
Jerry Jeudy	2	6	17	19%	-4.4
Albert Okwuegbunam	1	2	12	6%	-1.8
Javonte Williams	3	5	2	16%	-4.6
Eric Saubert	0	1	0	3%	-0.7
Mike Boone	0	1	0	3%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Josey Jewell	4	4	1.0	0	0
Kareem Jackson	2	4	0.0	0	1
P.J. Locke	3	1	0.0	0	0
Mike Purcell	3	1	1.0	0	0
K'Waun Williams	1	3	0.0	0	0
Alex Singleton	3	0	0.0	0	0
Jonas Griffith	1	2	0.0	1	1
Ronald Darby	2	1	0.0	0	0
Caden Sterns	1	2	0.0	0	1
Bradley Chubb	1	1	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -1
Closing total: 44
SF moneyline: -110
DEN moneyline: -101

49ers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 21 — under by 23.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: SF 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Nathaniel Hackett