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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 2, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 4
It turned at Q4 11:17, 1st and 10, on Dennis Gardeck — 21.8 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 11:17 · 1st and 10
Dennis Gardeck
Cardinals
(11:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Gardeck (99-J.Watt) at CAR 29. 45-D.Gardeck pushed ob at CAR 5 for 24 yards (6-B.Mayfield).
Arizona Cardinals 26–16. Biggest swing: Q4 11:17, Cardinals +21.8% win probability on one snap.
21.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Cardinals won this one — -0.12 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.86 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Cardinals at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Cardinals won this one — -0.06 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.47 expected points per snap.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cardinals won this one — 1 giveaway, against Panthers at 3 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(11:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Gardeck (99-J.Watt) at CAR 29. 45-D.Gardeck pushed ob at CAR 5 for 24 yards (6-B.Mayfield).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Matt Prater's 39-yard field goal with 11:26 left in the 4th put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Matt Prater39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.BrewerLead never changed again+313–10
Marquise Brown23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Kyler Murray · two-point no good+626–10
Christian McCaffrey13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Baker Mayfield · two-point no good+626–168 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cardinalscategory by categoryPanthers
Cardinals ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.86 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 68 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Panthers’s 52 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 6, Panthers 1.
Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.47.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ARI's early-down pass rate turned over: 79.3% in week 3 against 45.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 4.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
CAR's play-action rate turned over: 39.3% in week 3 against 13.2% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Cardinals-2.9 ptsright on their number · −1.1 vs their -1.7 pts, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 67 snaps
Panthers7.9 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +16.3 vs their -8.4 pts, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+1.53× that swing) · 51 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 93%
Tendencies room →Cardinals45.1%leaned — ran early · −16.4 vs their 61.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.90× that swing) · 51 early downs
Panthers71.1%leaned — passed early · +21.4 vs their 49.7%, and they swing ±16.8 week to week (+1.27× that swing) · 38 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 56%
Tendencies room →Cardinals11.4%right on their number · −3.4 vs their 14.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Panthers13.2%leaned — dropped back clean · −12.8 vs their 25.9%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -40% to 105%
Fourth Down room →Cardinals40.0%inside their normal wobble · −11.6 vs their 51.6%, and they swing ±19.6 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Panthers66.7%leaned — went for it · +42.1 vs their 24.5%, and they swing ±24.8 week to week (+1.70× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 62%
Tendencies room →Cardinals31.6%right on their number · −2.0 vs their 33.5%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Panthers22.9%inside their normal wobble · −7.1 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 37%
Tendencies room →Cardinals7.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.7 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Panthers5.6%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.6 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
ARI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 45.1%, 16.4 points below their season mean of 61.5% and 1.9 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · ARI
23/32, 207 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-1.5 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
22/36, 197 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-13.3 expected points added · -10.2% completion over expected
Receiving · ARI
6/11 for 88 yds, 1 TD
35% of team targets · -3.4 expected points added
Receiving · CAR
9/9 for 81 yds, 1 TD
25% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Christian McCaffrey banked 8.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 25.8 | +8.2 | 87% | 90% | 25% | 8% | 8 car, 27 yd · 9/9, 81 yd, 1 TD |
| Kyler MurrayQB · Starter QB | 22.9 | +1.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/32, 207 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 12 car, 26 yd, 1 TD |
| Marquise BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.8 | +3.3 | 93% | 86% | 35% | 47% | 6/11, 88 yd, 1 TD |
| Zach ErtzTE · Featured Receiver | 16.7 | +5.0 | 82% | 89% | 19% | 20% | 6/6, 47 yd, 1 TD |
| D.J. MooreWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.1 | −5.5 | 96% | 95% | 31% | 33% | 1 car, 11 yd · 6/11, 50 yd |
| James ConnerRB · Committee Back | 10.7 | −2.2 | 66% | 53% | 10% | 0% | 15 car, 55 yd · 3/3, 22 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.4 | −2.6 | 42% | 51% | 17% | 21% | 3/6, 34 yd |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 5.9 | −6.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/36, 197 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 2 car, 0 yd |
| Robbie ChosenWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | −2.5 | 96% | 100% | 14% | 29% | 3/5, 26 yd |
| Eno BenjaminRB | 5.5 | +1.2 | 14% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 5 car, 36 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Trey McBrideTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | +0.7 | 42% | 22% | 10% | 7% | 3/3, 24 yd |
| Rondale MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | −4.7 | 86% | 89% | 16% | 32% | 1 car, -4 yd · 3/5, 11 yd |
| Darrel WilliamsRB | 1.9 | −0.9 | 21% | 31% | 3% | 0% | 4 car, 19 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Greg DortchWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.2 | 36% | 44% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Ian ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −2.7 | 29% | 21% | 8% | 4% | 1/3, 6 yd |
| D'Onta ForemanRB | 0.2 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Stephen AndersonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Giovanni RicciTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 46% | 41% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Chuba HubbardRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Stephen SullivanTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Shi SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.8 | 75% | 87% | 6% | 3% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Gardeck (99-J.Watt) at CAR 29. 45-D.Gardeck pushed ob at CAR 5 for 24 yards (6-B.Mayfield).
Q4 11:17 · Panthers · 1st & 10 at CAR 25 · gained nothing · -7.05 EP · −21.6% win probability
153 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, manual charting on 139. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 94 yards from the ARI 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Cardinals0
Panthers6Cardinals0Panthers7How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Cardinals3Panthers7Cardinals3Panthers10Cardinals9Panthers10Cardinals10Panthers10Cardinals13Panthers10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Cardinals19Panthers10Cardinals20Panthers10Cardinals26Panthers10Cardinals26Panthers16Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cardinals at Panthers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 23/32 | 207 | 2 | 1 | 1 | −1.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Eno Benjamin | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | 0 | +2.4 |
| Kyler Murray | 12 | 26 | 2.2 | 1 | −1.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 6 | 11 | 88 | 1 | 35% | −3.4 |
| Zach Ertz | 6 | 6 | 47 | 1 | 19% | +3.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaven Collins | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dennis Gardeck | 5 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Budda Baker | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Allen |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 22/36 | 197 | 1 | 2 | 2 | −13.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_04_ARI_CAR
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Panthers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44; the game landed 42 — under by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
| Darrel Williams | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Rondale Moore | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | −4.2 |
| Trey McBride | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 10% | +1.7 |
| James Conner | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 10% | +1.4 |
| Rondale Moore | 3 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 16% | −2.7 |
| Eno Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +1.0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.6 |
| Darrel Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.4 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 3 |
| Markus Golden | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Niemann | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.J. Watt | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Nick Vigil | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tanner Vallejo | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trayvon Mullen | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 |
| 27 |
| 3.4 |
| 0 |
| −3.7 |
| D.J. Moore | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −7.1 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 9 | 9 | 81 | 1 | 25% | +4.3 |
| D.J. Moore | 6 | 11 | 50 | 0 | 31% | −7.4 |
| Tommy Tremble | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 17% | −2.1 |
| Robbie Chosen | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 14% | +0.1 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 8% | −2.1 |
| Shi Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −2.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankie Luvu | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Shaq Thompson | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Burns | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Woods | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Hartsfield | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaycee Horn | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sean Chandler | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Henderson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damien Wilson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Ioannidis | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
