2022 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 2, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium

Arizona CardinalsWinner

Carolina Panthers

CAR -1 upsetU 44 ✓Panthers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Arizona Cardinals 26–16. Biggest swing: Q4 11:17, ARI +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 11:17ARI 13 — CAR 10CAR ball · 1st & 10ARI 61%

(11:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Gardeck (99-J.Watt) at CAR 29. 45-D.Gardeck pushed ob at CAR 5 for 24 yards (6-B.Mayfield).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 11:17ARI +22% win prob(11:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Gardeck (99-J.Watt) at CAR 29. 45-D.Gardeck pushed ob at CAR 5 for 24 yards (6-B.Mayfield).
Q2 · 12:23ARI +19% win prob(12:23) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left intended for 2-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 49-F.Luvu [99-M.Ioannidis] at ARI 33. 49-F.Luvu for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 9:17CAR +11% win prob(9:17) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 2-M.Brown. PENALTY on CAR-24-C.Henderson, Defensive Pass Interference, 37 yards, enforced at CAR 43 - No Play.
Q2 · 6:58ARI +10% win prob(6:58) 6-B.Mayfield FUMBLES (Aborted) at ARI 36, touched at ARI 36, RECOVERED by ARI-56-B.Niemann at ARI 35.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 12:23CAR Touchdown
(12:23) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left intended for 2-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 49-F.Luvu [99-M.Ioannidis] at ARI 33. 49-F.Luvu for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 0 — CAR 7
Q2 · 3:37ARI Field goal
(3:37) 5-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
Score after this play: ARI 3 — CAR 7
Q2 · 0:02CAR Field goal
(:02) 4-E.Pineiro 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: ARI 3 — CAR 10
Q3 · 7:46ARI Touchdown
(7:46) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 10 — CAR 10
Q4 · 11:26ARI Field goal
(11:26) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
Score after this play: ARI 13 — CAR 10
Q4 · 10:32ARI Touchdown
(10:32) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 20 — CAR 10
Q4 · 7:44ARI Touchdown
(7:44) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 2-M.Brown for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: ARI 26 — CAR 10
Q4 · 4:53CAR Touchdown
(4:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 22-C.McCaffrey for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: ARI 26 — CAR 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Panthers
Offensive plays	68	52
Total yards	341 (edge)	220
Yards per play	5.0 (edge)	4.2
Expected points added / play	-0.06 (edge)	-0.47
Success rate	46% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	53%	75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01 (edge)	-0.34
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12 (edge)	-0.86
Third downs	6/14 (edge)	2/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.47.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

23/32, 207 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-1.5 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Baker MayfieldQB

22/36, 197 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-13.3 expected points added · -10.2% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

15 att, 55 yds, 0 TD

-2.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Eno BenjaminRB

5 att, 36 yds, 0 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Marquise BrownWR

6/11 for 88 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · -3.4 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

9/9 for 81 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 24	5	16	2:01	Punt
2	CAR	CAR 30	4	9	2:06	Turnover on downs
3	ARI	CAR 39	6	25	3:25	Turnover on downs
4	CAR	CAR 14	4	8	1:00	Punt
5	ARI	ARI 34	4	4	1:33	Punt
6	CAR	CAR 10	9	35	5:04	Punt
7	ARI	ARI 16	5	15	2:38	Defensive touchdown
8	ARI	ARI 18	8	24	3:16	Turnover on downs
9	CAR	ARI 42	4	10	2:04	Fumble
10	ARI	ARI 35	8	45	3:19	Field goal +3
11	CAR	CAR 24	8	34	2:29	Interception
12	ARI	ARI 18	4	8	0:44	Punt
13	CAR	CAR 35	5	29	0:21	Field goal +3
14	CAR	CAR 25	5	-4	2:10	Punt
15	ARI	ARI 11	10	62	5:08	Touchdown +7
16	CAR	CAR 25	6	16	1:54	Punt
17	ARI	ARI 22	15	83	9:26	Field goal +3
18	CAR	CAR 25	2	0	0:14	Interception
19	ARI	CAR 5	3	5	0:42	Touchdown +7
20	CAR	CAR 22	5	9	1:13	Turnover on downs
21	ARI	CAR 31	4	31	1:36	Touchdown +6
22	CAR	CAR 26	11	74	2:50	Touchdown +6
23	ARI	CAR 49	9	23	4:47	End of game

7 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 83 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	23/32	207	2	1	1	-1.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	15	55	3.7	0	-2.1
Eno Benjamin	5	36	7.2	0	2.4
Kyler Murray	12	26	2.2	1	-1.7
Darrel Williams	4	19	4.8	0	0.6
Rondale Moore	1	-4	-4.0	0	-4.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquise Brown	6	11	88	1	35%	-3.4
Zach Ertz	6	6	47	1	19%	3.3
Trey McBride	3	3	24	0	10%	1.7
James Conner	3	3	22	0	10%	1.4
Rondale Moore	3	5	11	0	16%	-2.7
Eno Benjamin	1	1	9	0	3%	1.0
Greg Dortch	1	1	6	0	3%	0.6
Darrel Williams	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Zaven Collins	6	2	0.0	0	0
Dennis Gardeck	5	0	1.0	1	1
Budda Baker	1	3	0.0	0	0
Zach Allen	1	3	1.0	0	3
Markus Golden	2	2	0.0	0	0
Ben Niemann	1	2	0.0	0	0
J.J. Watt	1	2	0.0	0	2
Nick Vigil	1	1	0.0	0	1
Tanner Vallejo	1	1	0.0	0	0
Trayvon Mullen	1	1	0.0	0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	22/36	197	1	2	2	-13.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	8	27	3.4	-3.7
D.J. Moore	1	11	11.0	0.6
D'Onta Foreman	1	2	2.0	-0.5
Baker Mayfield	2	0	0.0	-7.1
Laviska Shenault Jr.	1	0	0.0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	9	9	81	1	25%	4.3
D.J. Moore	6	11	50	0	31%	-7.4
Tommy Tremble	3	6	34	0	17%	-2.1
Robbie Chosen	3	5	26	0	14%	0.1
Ian Thomas	1	3	6	0	8%	-2.1
Shi Smith	0	2	0	0	6%	-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Frankie Luvu	5	5	0.0	1	1
Shaq Thompson	3	5	0.0	0	0
Brian Burns	4	3	1.0	0	0
Xavier Woods	4	3	0.0	0	0
Myles Hartsfield	6	0	0.0	0	0
Jaycee Horn	2	4	0.0	0	1
Sean Chandler	3	2	0.0	0	0
C.J. Henderson	4	0	0.0	0	0
Damien Wilson	1	3	0.0	0	0
Matt Ioannidis	2	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CAR -1
Closing total: 44
ARI moneyline: +102
CAR moneyline: -113

Panthers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 42 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: ARI 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Kliff Kingsbury vs Matt Rhule