2022 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 2, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium
Buffalo BillsWinner
23
Baltimore Ravens
20
Buffalo Bills 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:15, BUF +18% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(4:15) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 13-D.Duvernay INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at BUF -6. Touchback.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 4:15BUF +18% win prob(4:15) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 13-D.Duvernay INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at BUF -6. Touchback.
- Q4 · 7:05BAL +16% win prob(7:05) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles up the middle to BUF 10 for 18 yards (58-M.Milano).
- Q4 · 15:00BUF +16% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer (94-P.Emili) at 50. 21-J.Poyer to 50 for no gain (8-L.Jackson).
- Q1 · 14:23BUF +16% win prob(14:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 88-D.Knox INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey (93-C.Campbell) at BUF 34. 44-M.Humphrey pushed ob at BUF 8 for 26 yards (60-M.Morse; 26-D.Singletary). PENALTY on BUF-73-D.Dawkins, Face Mask, 4 yards, enforced at BUF 8.
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 13:30BAL Touchdown
(13:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 27-J.Dobbins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 0 — BAL 7 - Q1 · 10:18BUF Field goal
(10:18) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 3 — BAL 7 - Q1 · 1:10BAL Touchdown
(1:10) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 3 — BAL 14 - Q2 · 12:57BAL Field goal
(12:57) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BUF 3 — BAL 17 - Q2 · 3:44BAL Field goal
(3:44) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BUF 3 — BAL 20 - Q2 · 0:13BUF Touchdown
(:13) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 6-I.McKenzie for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 10 — BAL 20 - Q3 · 9:45BUF Field goal
(9:45) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 13 — BAL 20 - Q3 · 3:32BUF Touchdown
(3:32) 17-J.Allen left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 20 — BAL 20 - Q4 · 0:03BUF Field goal
(:03) 2-T.Bass 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 23 — BAL 20
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Bills | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 60 | 63 |
| Total yards | 328 (edge) | 297 |
| Yards per play | 5.5 (edge) | 4.7 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.03 (edge) | -0.04 |
| Success rate | 50% (edge) | 48% |
| Dropback rate | 70% | 60% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.16 (edge) | -0.17 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.30 | 0.16 (edge) |
| Third downs | 4/11 | 6/13 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 | 9 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 21 (edge) | 20 |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 2 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · BUF
19/36, 213 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
2.1 expected points added · -11.1% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
20/29, 144 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-9.2 expected points added · -0.2% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | BUF 25 | 4 | 1 | 0:52 | Interception | |
| 2 | BAL | BUF 4 | 3 | 4 | 0:42 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 3 | BUF | BUF 43 | 9 | 32 | 3:12 | Field goal +3 | |
| 4 | BAL | BAL 19 | 17 | 81 | 9:08 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 5 | BUF | BUF 22 | 4 | 14 | 0:46 | Fumble | |
| 6 | BAL | BUF 36 | 5 | 22 | 2:26 | Field goal +3 | |
| 7 | BUF | BUF 25 | 5 | 9 | 1:35 | Punt | |
| 8 | BAL | BAL 29 | 11 | 53 | 7:40 | Field goal +3 | |
| 9 | BUF | BUF 25 | 5 | 7 | 0:48 | Punt | |
| 10 | BAL | BAL 25 | 4 | 10 | 1:04 | Punt | |
| 11 | BUF | BUF 24 | 12 | 76 | 1:38 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 12 | BAL | BAL 25 | 2 | 0 | 0:09 | End of half | |
| 13 | BAL | BAL 35 | 5 | 0 | 1:11 | Punt | |
| 14 | BUF | BUF 28 | 10 | 51 | 4:07 | Field goal +3 | |
| 15 | BAL | BAL 25 | 7 | 18 | 2:49 | Punt | |
| 16 | BUF | BUF 20 | 10 | 80 | 3:27 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 17 | BAL | BAL 25 | 8 | 23 | 3:32 | Interception | |
| 18 | BUF | 50 | 4 | -11 | 1:16 | Punt | |
| 19 | BAL | BAL 5 | 14 | 86 | 9:29 | Interception | |
| 20 | BUF | BUF 20 | 12 | 69 | 4:09 | Field goal +3 |
9 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 86 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a interception.
Full stat lines
Box score
Buffalo Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 19/36 | 213 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.1 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 11 | 70 | 6.4 | 1 | 4.6 |
| Devin Singletary | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 0 | -5.9 |
| Zack Moss | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | -2.1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 6 | 62 | 0 | 18% | 3.8 |
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 15% | 2.2 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 18% | -2.7 |
| Khalil Shakir | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 6% | 1.9 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 4 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 18% | 3.5 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 9% | -0.5 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 12% | -1.8 |
| Quintin Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -1.0 |
| James Cook | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.6 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Milano | 11 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damar Hamlin | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Poyer | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 2 | 3 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaiir Elam | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Prince Emili | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Taron Johnson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Jackson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Von Miller | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
Baltimore Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 20/29 | 144 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -9.2 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 11 | 73 | 6.6 | 0 | 6.6 |
| Justice Hill | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 0 | 0.0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 13 | 41 | 3.2 | 1 | -0.9 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 0.8 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Duvernay | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 | 18% | 0.1 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 4 | 4 | 22 | 1 | 14% | 0.6 |
| Patrick Ricard | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 11% | 0.3 |
| Rashod Bateman | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 21% | -1.5 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 18% | -4.6 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 7% | 1.1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 11% | -1.4 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odafe Oweh | 6 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuck Clark | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Queen | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Peters | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marcus Williams | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jason Pierre-Paul | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stephens | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Calais Campbell | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Josh Bynes | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- BUF -3
- Closing total
- 50
- BUF moneyline
- -172
- BAL moneyline
- +154
Bills closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 50; the game landed 43 — under by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- M&T Bank Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- —
- Referee
- Jerome Boger
- Rest
- BUF 7 days · BAL 7 days
- Coaches
- Sean McDermott vs John Harbaugh