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Buffalo Bills 23, Ravens 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 4:15, 4th and 2, on Jordan Poyer — 18.3 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:15 · 4th and 2
Jordan Poyer
Bills
(4:15) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 13-D.Duvernay INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at BUF -6. Touchback.
Bills closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Buffalo Bills 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:15, Bills +18.3% win probability on one snap.
18.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jordan PoyerBillsQ4 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer (94-P.Emili) at 50. 21-J.Poyer to 50 for no gain (8-L.Jackson).
15.9pts
Lamar JacksonRavensQ4 7:05(7:05) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles up the middle to BUF 10 for 18 yards (58-M.Milano).
15.9pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — +0.16 expected points per carry, against Bills at -0.30 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Bills at 5 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.16 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at -0.17 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 13 on third down, against Bills at 4 of 11 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Bills165 of 172 plays carry both curves
(4:15) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 13-D.Duvernay INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at BUF -6. Touchback.
Swing −18.3 for RavensExpected points −3.90 for RavensThe model had Ravens 7 points higher than the market did.play 154
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 4:15BUF +18% win prob(4:15) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 13-D.Duvernay INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at BUF -6. Touchback.
4th · 7:05BAL +16% win prob(7:05) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles up the middle to BUF 10 for 18 yards (58-M.Milano).
4th · 15:00BUF +16% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer (94-P.Emili) at 50. 21-J.Poyer to 50 for no gain (8-L.Jackson).
1st · 14:23BUF +16% win prob(14:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 88-D.Knox INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey (93-C.Campbell) at BUF 34. 44-M.Humphrey pushed ob at BUF 8 for 26 yards (60-M.Morse; 26-D.Singletary). PENALTY on BUF-73-D.Dawkins, Face Mask, 4 yards, enforced at BUF 8.
4th · 2:59BAL +9% win prob(2:59) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 88-D.Knox pushed ob at BUF 48 for 20 yards (32-M.Williams).
3rd · 1:35BAL +9% win prob(1:35) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to BAL 36 for 2 yards (50-G.Rousseau).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Bass's 21-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:03Tyler Bass·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.FergusonLead never changed again+323–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryRavens
Bills5–2Ravens
328Total yards297
5.5Yards per play4.7
50%Success rate48%
36%Third-down rate46%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays9
21First downs20
1Sacks taken2
2Turnovers2
The read
Bills ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Bills: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.04Ravens: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.16Bills: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.17Ravens: −0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.30Bills: −0.30 expected points added per play
+0.16Ravens: +0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 60 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Ravens’s 63 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Bills 4, Ravens 4.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BAL's play-action rate turned over: 41.2% in week 3 against 7.9% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 27 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Ravens11.9%
right on their number · −2.7 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteBUF's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 4.8%, 15.1 points below their season mean of 19.8% and 1.8 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
71Ryan BatesC · Every snap100%64 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%64 snaps
79Spencer BrownT · Every snap100%64 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
60Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%64 snaps
76Rodger SaffoldG · Every snap100%64 snaps
13Gabe DavisWR · Full-time98%63 snaps
14Stefon DiggsWR · Full-time95%61 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Full-time88%56 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Heavy rotation75%48 snaps
6Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational48%31 snaps
85Quintin MorrisTE · Rotational25%16 snaps
10Khalil ShakirWR · Rotational25%16 snaps
80Jamison CrowderWR · Situational17%11 snaps
41Reggie GilliamFB · Situational13%8 snaps
20Zack MossRB · Situational9%6 snaps
68Bobby HartT · Situational3%2 snaps
28James CookRB · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Christian BenfordDBJordan PhillipsDEEd OliverDTJustin MurrayTTommy SweeneyTEJake KumerowWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Tyler Bass+18% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 2-T.Bass 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Q4 0:03 · Bills · 3rd & goal at BAL 3 · gained nothing · +0.04 EP · +17.8% win probability
163 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 93 yards from the BAL 5 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
46%
Yards
622
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54+0.0065%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR22+0.4132%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.2475%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR14-0.3329%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR5+0.1880%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 26
Bills0Ravens6
Bills0Ravens7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Bills 4 to the Bills 1
Bills3Ravens7
Field goal10 plays, from the Bills 43 to the Ravens 20
Bills3Ravens13
Bills3Ravens14
Touchdown17 plays, from the Ravens 19 to the Bills 4
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Bills 22 to the Bills 32
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Bills3Ravens17
Field goal5 plays, from the Bills 16 to the Bills 12
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 34
Bills3Ravens20
Field goal13 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Bills 28
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 32
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 30
Bills9Ravens20
Bills10Ravens20
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bills 24 to the Ravens 4
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt6 plays
Bills13Ravens20
Field goal10 plays, from the Bills 28 to the Ravens 21
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 43
Bills19Ravens20
Bills20Ravens20
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Ravens 11
The period ended8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 41
4th quarter41 plays
How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Punt4 plays, from midfield to the Ravens 49
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.7 seconds
Intercepted18 plays, from the Ravens 5 to the Bills 1
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.2 seconds
Bills23Ravens20
Field goal17 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Ravens 1
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
