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New York Giants 20, Bears 12 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 9:38, 1st and 10, on Justin Fields — 16.2 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 9:38 · 1st and 10
Justin Fields
Giants
(9:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at NYG 35 for -8 yards (51-A.Ojulari). FUMBLES (51-A.Ojulari), RECOVERED by NYG-5-K.Thibodeaux at NYG 25. Officially, a sack for 0 Yards.
17.7 mph wind
Giants closed -3 and covered, winning by 8.
New York Giants 20–12. Biggest swing: Q2 9:38, Giants +16.2% win probability on one snap. Played in 17.7 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
16.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Darnell MooneyBearsQ1 5:00(5:00) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 11-D.Mooney to NYG 25 for 56 yards (29-X.McKinney).
12.3pts
Unnamed on the sheetBearsQ2 4:02(4:02) 16-T.Gill punts 50 yards to NYG 30, Center-48-P.Scales. 80-R.James to NYG 35 for 5 yards (39-J.Blackwell). FUMBLES (39-J.Blackwell), RECOVERED by CHI-39-J.Blackwell at NYG 35.
11.7pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Giants won this one — 41% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Giants won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Bears at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Giants won this one — -0.03 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.23 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Giants won this one — 1 giveaway, against Bears at 2 giveaways.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Bears161 of 174 plays carry both curves
(9:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at NYG 35 for -8 yards (51-A.Ojulari). FUMBLES (51-A.Ojulari), RECOVERED by NYG-5-K.Thibodeaux at NYG 25. Officially, a sack for 0 Yards.
Swing +16.2 for GiantsExpected points +5.24 for GiantsThe model had Bears 5 points higher than the market did.play 51
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 9:38CHI +16% win prob(9:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at NYG 35 for -8 yards (51-A.Ojulari). FUMBLES (51-A.Ojulari), RECOVERED by NYG-5-K.Thibodeaux at NYG 25. Officially, a sack for 0 Yards.
1st · 5:00NYG +12% win prob(5:00) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 11-D.Mooney to NYG 25 for 56 yards (29-X.McKinney).
2nd · 4:02NYG +12% win prob(4:02) 16-T.Gill punts 50 yards to NYG 30, Center-48-P.Scales. 80-R.James to NYG 35 for 5 yards (39-J.Blackwell). FUMBLES (39-J.Blackwell), RECOVERED by CHI-39-J.Blackwell at NYG 35.
2nd · 10:22NYG +11% win prob(10:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 24-K.Herbert to NYG 27 for 24 yards (29-X.McKinney; 41-M.McFadden).
3rd · 3:42NYG +8% win prob(3:42) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 86-D.Slayton. PENALTY on CHI-6-K.Gordon, Defensive Pass Interference, 40 yards, enforced at NYG 38 - No Play.
3rd · 13:06NYG +7% win prob(13:06) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 11-D.Mooney to NYG 33 for 18 yards (24-D.Belton).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Daniel Jones's 21-yard rushing touchdown with 5:15 left in the 1st put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:31Michael Badgley·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.Scales+33–0
1st5:15Daniel Jones·21-yd TD run21-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+73–7
1st1:33Michael Badgley·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.Scales+36–7
2nd1:49Michael Badgley·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.Scales+39–14
3rd11:05Michael Badgley·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.Scales+312–14
3rd1:37Graham Gano·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+312–17
4th5:34Graham Gano·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+312–20
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryGiants
Bears1–8Giants
304Total yards333
5.1Yards per play5.5
32%Success rate41%
40%Third-down rate43%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
9Explosive plays8
14First downs19
6Sacks taken1
2Turnovers1
The read
Giants ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Bears: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.07Giants: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Bears: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.25Giants: +0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.23Bears: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.03Giants: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 60 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Giants’s 61 at 36%. Red-zone trips: Bears 3, Giants 3.
NoteGiants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
NYG's pass rate over expected, −21.0 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 1.7 points clear of the next team along.
A 3.1-swing turn from week 3.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYG's early-down pass rate, 29.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 0.4 points clear of the next team along.
A 3.1-swing turn from week 3.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYG's sack or hit rate, 31.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 5.8 points clear of the next team along.
A 3.0-swing turn from week 3.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
CHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, sat 37.5 points below their season number of 37.5% — they took the kick by 2.0 times their own 18.7-point weekly swing.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 18.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 8.1%, and they swing ±3.4 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Giants31.4%
leaned — got home · +14.6 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+1.72× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteCHI's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 37.5 points below their season mean of 37.5% and 2.0 times their own 18.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Fields sacked−20% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(9:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at NYG 35 for -8 yards (51-A.Ojulari). FUMBLES (51-A.Ojulari), RECOVERED by NYG-5-K.Thibodeaux at NYG 25. Officially, a sack for 0 Yards.
Q2 9:38 · Bears · 1st & 10 at NYG 27 · gained nothing · -5.24 EP · −20.3% win probability
159 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, manual charting on 147. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 77 yards from the CHI 19 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
37%
Yards
637
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.0159%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.1119%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20-0.0145%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR14+0.3329%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.5927%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.1430%
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Giants3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 26
Bears3Giants0
Field goal10 plays, from the Bears 24 to the Giants 11
Bears3Giants6
Bears3Giants7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Bears 21
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Bears6Giants7
Field goal8 plays, from the Bears 19 to the Giants 4
The period ended5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 41
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Giants 27
Bears6Giants13
Bears6Giants14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Bears 8
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 29
Bears9Giants14
Field goal9 plays, from the Giants 35 to the Giants 22
The period ended11 plays, from the Giants 18 to the Giants 43
The period ended4 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 29
3rd quarter40 plays
Bears12Giants14
Field goal10 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Giants 14
Punt11 plays, from the Giants 13 to the Giants 30
Punt5 plays
Bears12Giants17
Field goal7 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Bears 22
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 24 to the Bears 30
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter45 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Giants 13 to the Giants 35
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 4 to the Bears 11
Bears12Giants20
Field goal14 plays, from the Giants 21 to the Bears 25
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 45
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 3 to the Giants 7
The period ended7 plays, from the Bears 37 to the Bears 19
The period ended4 plays, from the Bears 27 to the Bears 33
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Giants -3
Closing total
39
Bears moneyline
+130
Giants moneyline
-144
Giants closed -3 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 39; the game landed 32 — under by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 55°F at kickoff; windy at 18 mph out of the north-east; 0.19 in of precipitation; moderate drizzle.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Bears 7 days · Giants 6 days
Coaches
Matt Eberflus vs Brian Daboll
NoteWind at 17.7 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
2nd · 3:11NYG +6% win prob(3:11) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles right guard to NYG 23 for 12 yards (48-T.Crowder). NYG-96-H.Mondeaux was injured during the play.
1st · 13:58CHI +6% win prob(13:58) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 80-R.James.
