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2022 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 2, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Cleveland Browns

20

Atlanta FalconsWinner

23

CLE -1 upsetU 48 ✓

Atlanta Falcons 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:03, ATL +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3ATL ↑CLE ↓
Q4 · 3:03CLE 20 — ATL 20ATL ball · 2nd & 10CLE 56%

(3:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep right to 17-O.Zaccheaus to CLE 49 for 42 yards (21-D.Ward). PENALTY on CLE-21-D.Ward, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 49.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 3:03ATL +23% win prob(3:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep right to 17-O.Zaccheaus to CLE 49 for 42 yards (21-D.Ward). PENALTY on CLE-21-D.Ward, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 49.
  2. Q2 · 1:25ATL +20% win prob(1:25) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones to ATL 1 for 42 yards (37-D.Alford).
  3. Q4 · 8:40ATL +17% win prob(8:40) 25-T.Allgeier right end to CLE 7 for 42 yards (22-G.Delpit). PENALTY on CLE-93-T.Togiai, Defensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at CLE 7.
  4. Q4 · 9:58ATL +16% win prob(9:58) 24-N.Chubb left end for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 3:40ATL Field goal

    (3:40) 7-Y.Koo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: CLE 0 — ATL 3
  2. Q1 · 1:29ATL Touchdown

    (1:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 84-C.Patterson left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 0 — ATL 10
  3. Q2 · 7:42CLE Touchdown

    (7:42) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 7 — ATL 10
  4. Q2 · 0:11CLE Field goal

    (:11) 3-C.York 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    Score after this play: CLE 10 — ATL 10
  5. Q3 · 3:12CLE Field goal

    (3:12) 3-C.York 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    Score after this play: CLE 13 — ATL 10
  6. Q4 · 12:56ATL Touchdown

    (12:56) (No Huddle) 42-C.Huntley left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 13 — ATL 17
  7. Q4 · 9:58CLE Touchdown

    (9:58) 24-N.Chubb left end for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 20 — ATL 17
  8. Q4 · 7:23ATL Field goal

    (7:23) 7-Y.Koo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: CLE 20 — ATL 20
  9. Q4 · 2:33ATL Field goal

    (2:33) 7-Y.Koo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: CLE 20 — ATL 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBrownsFalcons
Offensive plays7152
Total yards403 (edge)336
Yards per play5.76.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.05 (edge)0.04
Success rate45%46% (edge)
Dropback rate54%38%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.10 (edge)-0.26
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.22 (edge)0.22
Third downs5/14 (edge)3/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)1010
First downs gained on snaps23 (edge)17
Sacks taken11
Turnovers21 (edge)

Browns outgained Falcons 403–336 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Jacoby BrissettQB

21/35, 234 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-1.0 expected points added · -5.5% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Marcus MariotaQB

7/19, 139 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-5.1 expected points added · -20.0% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

19 att, 118 yds, 1 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Tyler AllgeierRB

10 att, 84 yds, 0 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

David NjokuTE

5/7 for 73 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · -3.0 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Donovan Peoples-JonesWR

5/9 for 71 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 0.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CLECLE 259764:41Turnover on downs
2ATLATL 414846:43Field goal +3
3CLECLE 83150:44Fumble
4ATLCLE 314311:32Touchdown +7
5CLECLE 2518758:45Touchdown +7
6ATLATL 25561:04Punt
7CLECLE 2013796:24Field goal +3
8ATLATL 25200:07End of half
9ATLATL 25541:02Punt
10CLECLE 22481:58Punt
11ATLATL 315-11:24Punt
12CLECLE 37421:04Punt
13ATLATL 145182:35Interception
14CLEATL 437163:51Field goal +3
15ATLATL 2512755:15Touchdown +7
16CLECLE 258753:00Touchdown +7
17ATLATL 258702:32Field goal +3
18CLECLE 259313:44Punt
19ATLATL 96491:07Field goal +3
20CLECLE 259261:33Interception
21ATLATL 26200:55End of game

9 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 84 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jacoby Brissett21/35234011-1.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Nick Chubb191186.212.5
Kareem Hunt10494.900.9
Jacoby Brissett5163.217.3
David Njoku1-6-6.00-1.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
David Njoku5773020%-3.0
Donovan Peoples-Jones5971026%0.4
David Bell233509%1.8
Kareem Hunt231909%0.4
Harrison Bryant4618017%-3.0
Nick Chubb23909%-0.4
Amari Cooper149011%-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jacob Phillips510.000
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah330.001
John Johnson410.000
Grant Delpit400.002
Isaac Rochell310.000
Alex Wright120.000
Jordan Elliott201.000
Greg Newsome200.000
Ronnie Harrison200.000
Denzel Ward200.012

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Marcus Mariota7/19139011-5.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tyler Allgeier10848.401.9
Caleb Huntley10565.613.7
Cordarrelle Patterson9384.21-0.8
Avery Williams12121.001.5
Marcus Mariota530.600.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Olamide Zaccheaus2255011%6.1
Kyle Pitts1425022%-1.0
Parker Hesse112206%2.4
Tyler Allgeier112006%2.6
Drake London2717039%-8.9
KhaDarel Hodge01006%-0.9
Keith Smith01006%-2.1
Damiere Byrd01006%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Mykal Walker830.000
Rashaan Evans550.000
Jaylinn Hawkins230.000
Ta'Quon Graham410.000
Grady Jarrett321.000
Lorenzo Carter320.001
Richie Grant220.000
Anthony Rush210.000
Dee Alford300.011
Abdullah Anderson210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CLE -1
Closing total
48
CLE moneyline
-107
ATL moneyline
-103

Browns closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48; the game landed 43 — under by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
CLE 10 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches
Kevin Stefanski vs Arthur Smith