For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 2, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 4
It turned at Q4 3:03, 2nd and 10, on Olamide Zaccheaus — 22.6 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:03 · 2nd and 10
Olamide Zaccheaus
Falcons
(3:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep right to 17-O.Zaccheaus to CLE 49 for 42 yards (21-D.Ward). PENALTY on CLE-21-D.Ward, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 49.
Atlanta Falcons 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:03, Falcons +22.6% win probability on one snap.
22.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Falcons won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Browns at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Falcons won this one — 1 giveaway, against Browns at 2 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Browns owned this one and still lost it — -0.10 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.26 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
(3:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep right to 17-O.Zaccheaus to CLE 49 for 42 yards (21-D.Ward). PENALTY on CLE-21-D.Ward, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 49.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Younghoe Koo's 45-yard field goal with 2:33 left in the 4th put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Younghoe Koo45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCulloughLead never changed again+320–239 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Brownscategory by categoryFalcons
Falcons ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 71 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Falcons’s 52 at 38%. Red-zone trips: Browns 4, Falcons 4.
Browns outgained Falcons 403-336 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's play-action rate, 55.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 5.0 points clear of the next team along.
20 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points.
CLE's sack or hit rate, 25.0%, sat 13.7 points above their season number of 11.3% — they got home by 2.0 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
20 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
CLE's play-action rate turned over: 6.1% in week 3 against 31.6% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
ATL's pass rate over expected turned over: −5.3 pts in week 3 against −19.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
ATL's blitz rate sent turned over: 56.5% in week 3 against 15.8% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 11 pts
Over Expected room →Browns-9.6 ptsright on their number · −2.2 vs their -7.4 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 71 snaps
Falcons-19.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their -13.9 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 52 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 80%
Tendencies room →Browns51.9%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 54 early downs
Falcons30.2%leaned — ran early · −12.5 vs their 42.7%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−1.54× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 65%
Tendencies room →Browns31.6%leaned — faked the run · +12.8 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+1.37× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Falcons55.0%leaned — faked the run · +19.4 vs their 35.6%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+1.72× that swing) · 20 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -41% to 119%
Fourth Down room →Browns75.0%inside their normal wobble · +17.6 vs their 57.4%, and they swing ±23.1 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Falcons0.0%leaned — took the kick · −24.9 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±24.8 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 57%
Tendencies room →Browns35.0%inside their normal wobble · +11.3 vs their 23.7%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 20 dropbacks
Falcons15.8%inside their normal wobble · −7.5 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±13.3 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 29%
Tendencies room →Browns25.0%off script — got home · +13.7 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+2.03× that swing) · 20 dropbacks
Falcons18.4%leaned — got home · +7.5 vs their 10.9%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+1.50× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
CLE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.0%, 13.7 points above their season mean of 11.3% and 2.0 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · CLE
21/35, 234 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-1.0 expected points added · -5.5% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
7/19, 139 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-5.1 expected points added · -20.0% completion over expected
Receiving · CLE
5/9 for 71 yds, 0 TD
26% of team targets · 0.4 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Tyler Allgeier banked 4.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick ChubbRB · Committee Back | 20.7 | +0.9 | 55% | 45% | 9% | 0% | 19 car, 118 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 9 yd |
| Jacoby BrissettQB · Starter QB | 15.0 | −6.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/35, 234 yd, 1 INT · 5 car, 16 yd, 1 TD |
| Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.1 | −5.5 | 84% | 84% | 26% | 40% | 5/9, 71 yd |
| Caleb HuntleyRB | 11.6 | +4.1 | 22% | 10% | 0% | — | 10 car, 56 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler AllgeierRB · Committee Back | 11.4 | +4.9 | 44% | 45% | 6% | 0% | 10 car, 84 yd · 1/1, 20 yd |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB | 9.8 | +4.1 | 29% | 35% | 0% | — | 9 car, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| David NjokuTE · Featured Receiver | 9.7 | −3.7 | 92% | 92% | 20% | 16% | 1 car, -6 yd · 5/7, 73 yd |
| Kareem HuntRB | 8.8 | −1.0 | 49% | 50% | 9% | 1% | 10 car, 49 yd · 2/3, 19 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.5 | +4.3 | 56% | 40% | 11% | 14% | 2/2, 55 yd |
| Harrison BryantTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | −4.3 | 67% | 58% | 17% | 10% | 4/6, 18 yd |
| David BellWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | +0.5 | 26% | 29% | 9% | 22% | 2/3, 35 yd |
| Marcus MariotaQB · Starter QB | 3.9 | −10.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 7/19, 139 yd, 1 INT · 5 car, 3 yd |
| Drake LondonWR · Alpha Receiver | 3.7 | −8.9 | 80% | 95% | 39% | 26% | 2/7, 17 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Featured Receiver | 3.5 | −5.9 | 62% | 65% | 22% | 26% | 1/4, 25 yd |
| Parker HesseTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +1.7 | 87% | 75% | 6% | 7% | 1/1, 22 yd |
| Avery WilliamsRB | 2.1 | +1.6 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Amari CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −4.9 | 85% | 89% | 11% | 15% | 1/4, 9 yd |
| Keith SmithRB | 0.0 | −3.0 | 27% | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 33% | 35% | 6% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Damiere ByrdWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.7 | 20% | 5% | 6% | 17% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Jerome FordRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left intended for 18-Dav.Bell INTERCEPTED by 37-D.Alford at ATL 26. 37-D.Alford to ATL 26 for no gain (18-Dav.Bell).
Q4 1:03 · Browns · 3rd & 23 at CLE 46 · gained nothing · -0.82 EP · −19.8% win probability
156 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, manual charting on 141. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 84 yards from the ATL 4 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, thrown away.
Browns0
Falcons3Browns0Falcons9Browns0Falcons10Browns6Falcons10Browns7Falcons10How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Browns10Falcons10Browns13Falcons10Browns13Falcons16Browns13Falcons17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Browns19Falcons17Browns20Falcons17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Browns20Falcons20How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Browns20Falcons23How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Browns at Falcons, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 21/35 | 234 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −1.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 19 | 118 | 6.2 | 1 | +2.5 |
| Kareem Hunt | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 1 | +7.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Njoku | 5 | 7 | 73 | 0 | 20% | −3.0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 5 | 9 | 71 | 0 | 26% | +0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Phillips | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| John Johnson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Delpit |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 7/19 | 139 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −5.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_04_CLE_ATL
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Browns closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48; the game landed 43 — under by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
| David Njoku | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| David Bell | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 9% | +1.8 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 9% | +0.4 |
| Harrison Bryant | 4 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 17% | −3.0 |
| Nick Chubb | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 9% | −0.4 |
| Amari Cooper | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 11% | −1.1 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Isaac Rochell | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Wright | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Elliott | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Newsome | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Harrison | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Ward | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| 10 |
| 84 |
| 8.4 |
| 0 |
| +1.9 |
| Caleb Huntley | 10 | 56 | 5.6 | 1 | +3.7 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 1 | −0.8 |
| Avery Williams | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Marcus Mariota | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 2 | 55 | 0 | 11% | +6.1 |
| Kyle Pitts | 1 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 22% | −1.0 |
| Parker Hesse | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 6% | +2.4 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 6% | +2.6 |
| Drake London | 2 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 39% | −8.9 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.9 |
| Keith Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −2.1 |
| Damiere Byrd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mykal Walker | 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashaan Evans | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ta'Quon Graham | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grady Jarrett | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Carter | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Richie Grant | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Rush | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Alford | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Abdullah Anderson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
