For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
This page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
This page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 9:02 AM ET · 16 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 2, 2022 · Allegiant Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 4
It turned at Q2 3:31, 1st and 10, on Melvin Gordon — 30.5 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Las Vegas Raiders 32–23. Biggest swing: Q2 3:31, Raiders +30.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 3:31 · 1st and 10
Melvin Gordon
Raiders
(3:31) 25-M.Gordon right guard to LV 34 for 7 yards (94-M.Butler, 30-D.Harmon). FUMBLES (30-D.Harmon), RECOVERED by LV-21-A.Robertson at LV 32. 21-A.Robertson for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
30.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Raiders won this one — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.57 expected points per carry.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Raiders won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Raiders won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Broncos at 3 of 11 on third down.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Raiders at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
(3:31) 25-M.Gordon right guard to LV 34 for 7 yards (94-M.Butler, 30-D.Harmon). FUMBLES (30-D.Harmon), RECOVERED by LV-21-A.Robertson at LV 32. 21-A.Robertson for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Daniel Carlson's 39-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 2nd put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Amik Robertson68-yd defence TD68-yard touchdownthe defence scored it · kick no good, wide left+610–16
Jerry Jeudy20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilson · kick no good, short+616–16
Daniel Carlson39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.SiegLead never changed again+316–1911 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categoryRaiders
Raiders ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 48 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Raiders’s 72 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 4, Raiders 6.
Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos-7.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their -2.5 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 48 snaps
Raiders-3.1 ptsright on their number · +0.4 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 72 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 83%
Tendencies room →Broncos54.3%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 56.1%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 35 early downs
Raiders50.0%inside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their 56.4%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 58 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 47%
Tendencies room →Broncos9.7%inside their normal wobble · −8.5 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Raiders10.3%leaned — dropped back clean · −10.5 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Broncos—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 26.1%.
Raiders0.0%leaned — took the kick · −39.4 vs their 39.4%, and they swing ±29.1 week to week (−1.35× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 60%
Tendencies room →Broncos23.1%inside their normal wobble · −6.8 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Raiders22.6%right on their number · −1.4 vs their 24.0%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 31%
Tendencies room →Broncos12.8%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Raiders12.9%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
LV's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 39.4 points below their season mean of 39.4% and 1.4 times their own 29.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
17/25, 237 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-1.0 expected points added · +0.3% completion over expected
Passing · LV
21/34, 188 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-3.3 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Josh Jacobs banked 8.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh JacobsRB · Bell Cow Back | 34.5 | +8.4 | 89% | 77% | 20% | 0% | 28 car, 144 yd, 2 TD · 5/6, 31 yd |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 27.5 | +7.7 | 100% | — | 4% | 0% | 17/25, 237 yd, 2 TD · 4 car, 29 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 1 yd |
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.5 | −2.9 | 95% | 90% | 43% | 37% | 1 car, 4 yd · 9/13, 101 yd |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.2 | +1.9 | 94% | 90% | 28% | 23% | 5/7, 52 yd, 1 TD |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Featured Receiver | 15.3 | +5.5 | 89% | 87% | 20% | 18% | 4/5, 53 yd, 1 TD |
| Derek CarrQB · Starter QB | 11.5 | −10.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/34, 188 yd · 7 car, 40 yd |
| K.J. HamlerWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.5 | +3.9 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | −3.5 | 96% | 92% | 17% | 29% | 3/5, 33 yd |
| Kendall HintonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | +1.0 | 57% | 61% | 12% | 20% | 2/3, 39 yd |
| Darren WallerTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | −5.6 | 80% | 82% | 17% | 27% | 3/5, 24 yd |
| Mike BooneRB · Receiving Back | 3.9 | −2.4 | 36% | 35% | 12% | 11% | 3 car, 20 yd · 1/3, 9 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 3.7 | −2.9 | 45% | 39% | 4% | 0% | 10 car, 28 yd · 1/1, -1 yd |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −0.1 | 77% | 77% | 8% | 13% | 1/2, 25 yd |
| Zamir WhiteRB | 2.4 | +1.4 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Montrell WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brandon BoldenRB | 0.9 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Andrew BeckRB | 0.0 | — | 23% | 6% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Tyron JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Keelan ColeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 65% | 72% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Melvin GordonRB | -1.2 | −4.0 | 19% | 16% | 4% | 0% | 3 car, 8 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:31) 25-M.Gordon right guard to LV 34 for 7 yards (94-M.Butler, 30-D.Harmon). FUMBLES (30-D.Harmon), RECOVERED by LV-21-A.Robertson at LV 32. 21-A.Robertson for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 3:31 · Broncos · 1st & 10 at LV 41 · gained 7 · -10.08 EP · −28.6% win probability
163 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 174 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, manual charting on 145. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 77 yards from the LV 20 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Broncos0
Raiders3Broncos6Raiders3Broncos7Raiders3Broncos7Raiders9Broncos7Raiders10Broncos10Raiders10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Broncos10Raiders16Broncos16Raiders16Broncos16Raiders19Broncos16Raiders22Broncos16Raiders25How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Broncos22Raiders25Broncos23Raiders25Broncos23Raiders31Broncos23Raiders32Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Raiders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 17/25 | 237 | 2 | 0 | 3 | −1.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 1 | +2.4 |
| Javonte Williams | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Mike Boone | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.J. Hamler | 1 | 1 | 55 | 0 | 4% | +4.1 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 4 | 5 | 53 | 1 | 20% | +4.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josey Jewell | 7 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonas Griffith | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Surtain | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kareem Jackson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 21/34 | 188 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −3.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_04_DEN_LV
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Raiders closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 9.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 55 — over by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | −11.1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 7 | 52 | 1 | 28% | +2.7 |
| Kendall Hinton | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 12% | +1.5 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 8% | +0.4 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 12% | −4.0 |
| Montrell Washington | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −1.1 |
| Russell Wilson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Melvin Gordon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.3 |
| Javonte Williams | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| K'Waun Williams | 5 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caden Sterns | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Chubb | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dre'Mont Jones | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Purcell | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 |
| 144 |
| 5.1 |
| 2 |
| +1.1 |
| Derek Carr | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Zamir White | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Davante Adams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 9 | 13 | 101 | 0 | 43% | +3.5 |
| Mack Hollins | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 17% | +1.0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 5 | 6 | 31 | 0 | 20% | +0.0 |
| Darren Waller | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 17% | +1.0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3% | −1.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Divine Deablo | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Perryman | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnathan Abram | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 4 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevon Moehrig | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amik Robertson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Hobbs | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Duron Harmon | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roderic Teamer | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darien Butler | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
