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2022 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 2, 2022 · Allegiant Stadium

Denver Broncos

23

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

32

LV -2.5 ✓O 45.5 ✓Dome

Las Vegas Raiders 32–23. Biggest swing: Q2 3:31, DEN +30% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LV ↑DEN ↓
Q2 · 3:31DEN 10 — LV 16DEN ball · 1st & 10DEN 59%

(3:31) 25-M.Gordon right guard to LV 34 for 7 yards (94-M.Butler, 30-D.Harmon). FUMBLES (30-D.Harmon), RECOVERED by LV-21-A.Robertson at LV 32. 21-A.Robertson for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 3:31DEN +30% win prob(3:31) 25-M.Gordon right guard to LV 34 for 7 yards (94-M.Butler, 30-D.Harmon). FUMBLES (30-D.Harmon), RECOVERED by LV-21-A.Robertson at LV 32. 21-A.Robertson for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 7:54LV +12% win prob(7:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 1-K.Hamler to LV 3 for 55 yards (30-D.Harmon).
  3. Q2 · 1:36LV +12% win prob(1:36) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 9-K.Hinton pushed ob at LV 20 for 35 yards (25-T.Moehrig).
  4. Q2 · 11:01LV +11% win prob(11:01) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 10-J.Jeudy ran ob at LV 12 for 32 yards.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:57LV Field goal

    (9:57) 2-D.Carlson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: DEN 0 — LV 3
  2. Q1 · 2:50DEN Touchdown

    (2:50) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — LV 3
  3. Q2 · 11:53LV Touchdown

    (11:53) 28-J.Jacobs left guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — LV 10
  4. Q2 · 8:06DEN Field goal

    (8:06) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: DEN 10 — LV 10
  5. Q2 · 3:31LV Touchdown

    (3:31) 25-M.Gordon right guard to LV 34 for 7 yards (94-M.Butler, 30-D.Harmon). FUMBLES (30-D.Harmon), RECOVERED by LV-21-A.Robertson at LV 32. 21-A.Robertson for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: DEN 10 — LV 16
  6. Q2 · 1:29DEN Touchdown

    (1:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 10-J.Jeudy for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: DEN 16 — LV 16
  7. Q2 · 0:04LV Field goal

    (:04) 2-D.Carlson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: DEN 16 — LV 19
  8. Q3 · 2:31LV Field goal

    (2:31) 2-D.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: DEN 16 — LV 22
  9. Q4 · 9:54LV Field goal

    (9:54) 2-D.Carlson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: DEN 16 — LV 25
  10. Q4 · 7:19DEN Touchdown

    (7:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 23 — LV 25
  11. Q4 · 2:07LV Touchdown

    (2:07) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 23 — LV 32

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBroncosRaiders
Offensive plays4872
Total yards299387 (edge)
Yards per play6.2 (edge)5.4
Expected points added / play-0.190.04 (edge)
Success rate31%46% (edge)
Dropback rate65%54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.02 (edge)-0.00
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.570.09 (edge)
Third downs3/117/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps1225 (edge)
Sacks taken32 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

17/25, 237 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-1.0 expected points added · +0.3% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

21/34, 188 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-3.3 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

28 att, 144 yds, 2 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Derek CarrQB

7 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Davante AdamsWR

9/13 for 101 yds, 0 TD

43% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Jerry JeudyWR

4/5 for 53 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LVLV 3212605:08Field goal +3
2DENDEN 256102:46Punt
3LVLV 134-62:12Punt
4DENLV 345342:09Touchdown +7
5LVLV 2513655:59Touchdown +7
6DENLV 488443:43Field goal +3
7LVLV 20511:40Punt
8DENDEN 485233:08Defensive touchdown
9DENDEN 257751:51Touchdown +6
10LVLV 2511541:24Field goal +3
11DENDEN 257123:22Punt
12LVLV 19762:24Punt
13DENDEN 494-42:05Punt
14LVLV 2010774:42Field goal +3
15DENDEN 25591:25Punt
16LVLV 32471:16Punt
17DENDEN 1411:41Punt
18LVLV 496383:15Field goal +3
19DENDEN 258902:34Touchdown +7
20LVLV 2512755:14Touchdown +7
21DENDEN 25550:24Turnover on downs
22LVDEN 305101:38End of game

10 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 90 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Russell Wilson17/25237203-1.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Russell Wilson4297.312.4
Javonte Williams10282.80-0.8
Mike Boone3206.701.4
Melvin Gordon382.70-11.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
K.J. Hamler115504%4.1
Jerry Jeudy4553120%4.0
Courtland Sutton5752128%2.7
Kendall Hinton2339012%1.5
Eric Saubert122508%0.4
Mike Boone139012%-4.0
Montrell Washington11404%-1.1
Russell Wilson11104%-0.4
Melvin Gordon01004%-1.3
Javonte Williams11-104%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Josey Jewell770.000
Jonas Griffith640.000
Patrick Surtain620.002
Kareem Jackson420.000
K'Waun Williams501.000
Caden Sterns310.000
Bradley Chubb030.001
Dre'Mont Jones300.000
Mike Purcell210.000
Eric Saubert110.000

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Derek Carr21/34188002-3.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs281445.121.1
Derek Carr7405.700.2
Zamir White22412.001.9
Davante Adams144.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Davante Adams913101043%3.5
Mack Hollins3533017%1.0
Josh Jacobs5631020%0.0
Darren Waller3524017%1.0
Brandon Bolden11-103%-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Divine Deablo350.000
Denzel Perryman410.000
Johnathan Abram320.000
Maxx Crosby402.000
Trevon Moehrig220.000
Amik Robertson210.000
Nate Hobbs301.001
Duron Harmon210.000
Roderic Teamer110.000
Darien Butler200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LV -2.5
Closing total
45.5
DEN moneyline
+124
LV moneyline
-137

Raiders closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 9.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 55 — over by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
DEN 7 days · LV 7 days
Coaches
Nathaniel Hackett vs Josh McDaniels

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.