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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 2, 2022 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 4
It turned at Q1 11:30, 2nd and 7, on Andre Cisco — 22.9 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
Philadelphia Eagles 29–21. Biggest swing: Q1 11:30, Jaguars +22.9% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.8 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:30 · 2nd and 7
Andre Cisco
Jaguars
(11:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left intended for 3-Z.Pascal INTERCEPTED by 5-A.Cisco (31-D.Williams) at JAX 41. 5-A.Cisco for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
22.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — 1 giveaway, against Jaguars at 5 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 4 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.12 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.33 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — -0.03 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.33 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
(11:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left intended for 3-Z.Pascal INTERCEPTED by 5-A.Cisco (31-D.Williams) at JAX 41. 5-A.Cisco for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Kenneth Gainwell's 10-yard rushing touchdown with 0:30 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Kenneth Gainwell10-yd TD run10-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+614–208 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jaguarscategory by categoryEagles
Eagles ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 46 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Eagles’s 75 at 40%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 3, Eagles 6.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.33.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's play-action rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 4.8 points clear of the next team along.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.3 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
PHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 83.3%, was the highest of the 21 team-games charted in week 4 — 8.3 points clear of the next team along.
6 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.9 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
PHI's early-down pass rate, 36.4%, sat 18.8 points below their season number of 55.2% — they ran early by 2.4 times their own 7.9-point weekly swing.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points. · −2.4σ from their own normal
PHI's pass rate over expected turned over: +4.8 pts in week 3 against −16.7 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
74 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points. · −2.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Jaguars-4.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 0.1 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 46 snaps
Eagles-16.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −16.0 vs their -0.7 pts, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−1.95× that swing) · 74 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 82%
Tendencies room →Jaguars57.9%right on their number · +1.1 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 38 early downs
Eagles36.4%off script — ran early · −18.8 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−2.38× that swing) · 55 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19% to 54%
Tendencies room →Jaguars7.4%leaned — dropped back clean · −13.2 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−1.36× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Eagles0.0%leaned — dropped back clean · −17.8 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (−1.24× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30% to 121%
Fourth Down room →Jaguars—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.5%.
Eagles83.3%leaned — went for it · +32.2 vs their 51.2%, and they swing ±26.9 week to week (+1.20× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 44%
Tendencies room →Jaguars23.3%right on their number · +2.7 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Eagles25.9%leaned — sent pressure · +12.2 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+1.78× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 39%
Tendencies room →Jaguars13.3%right on their number · −3.4 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Eagles18.5%right on their number · +0.8 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
PHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 36.4%, 18.8 points below their season mean of 55.2% and 2.4 times their own 7.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
16/25, 204 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-12.1 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
11/23, 174 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-8.9 expected points added · -20.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jamal Agnew banked 9.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles SandersRB · Committee Back | 29.6 | +7.4 | 67% | 53% | 13% | 2% | 27 car, 134 yd, 2 TD · 2/3, 22 yd |
| Jamal AgnewWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.0 | +9.5 | 38% | 56% | 26% | 36% | 4/6, 50 yd, 2 TD |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 16.0 | −2.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/25, 204 yd, 1 INT · 16 car, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.5 | +2.2 | 85% | 90% | 29% | 56% | 5/7, 95 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Alpha Receiver | 12.2 | +2.2 | 90% | 100% | 25% | 6% | 5/6, 72 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB | 8.7 | +1.5 | 27% | 40% | 8% | 1% | 5 car, 19 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, -2 yd |
| Christian KirkWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.3 | −6.0 | 94% | 100% | 39% | 43% | 1 car, 3 yd · 2/9, 60 yd |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 5.7 | −3.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 11/23, 174 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 7 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | −2.8 | 87% | 97% | 17% | 22% | 3/4, 17 yd |
| Jamycal HastyRB | 4.2 | +1.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dan ArnoldTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | +2.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Travis EtienneRB · Committee Back | 3.2 | −2.4 | 51% | 56% | 4% | 13% | 8 car, 32 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| James RobinsonRB | 2.9 | −3.0 | 47% | 41% | 0% | — | 8 car, 29 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +0.7 | 74% | 78% | 4% | 8% | 1/1, 16 yd |
| Trey SermonRB | 1.9 | +0.8 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −0.4 | 30% | 19% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 0 yd |
| Marvin JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 91% | 96% | 4% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tim JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 55% | 37% | 4% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Quez WatkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 60% | 57% | 4% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Zach PascalWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 24% | 17% | 4% | 14% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Britain CoveyWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left intended for 3-Z.Pascal INTERCEPTED by 5-A.Cisco (31-D.Williams) at JAX 41. 5-A.Cisco for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 11:30 · Eagles · 2nd & 7 at PHI 36 · gained nothing · -8.75 EP · −24.3% win probability
155 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 167 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, manual charting on 139. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 80 yards from the JAX 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A run-pass option, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Jaguars6
Eagles0Jaguars7Eagles0Jaguars13Eagles0Jaguars14Eagles0How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Jaguars14Eagles6Jaguars14Eagles7Jaguars14Eagles13Jaguars14Eagles14How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, a man in motion.
Jaguars14Eagles20How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Jaguars14Eagles23Jaguars14Eagles29Jaguars20Eagles29Jaguars21Eagles29Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jaguars at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 11/23 | 174 | 2 | 1 | 4 | −8.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 | −2.9 |
| James Robinson | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Trevor Lawrence |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 2 | 9 | 60 | 0 | 39% | −4.0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 4 | 6 | 50 | 2 | 26% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 12 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Lloyd | 2 | 10 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Robertson-Harris |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 16/25 | 204 | 0 | 1 | 2 | −12.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_04_JAX_PHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 44; the game landed 50 — over by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 16.8 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 2 |
| 7 |
| 3.5 |
| 0 |
| −3.6 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| +5.4 |
| Dan Arnold | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 4% | +1.8 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 9% | +1.9 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 4% | +1.9 |
| Travis Etienne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| Tim Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| Marvin Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| 2 |
| 6 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquill Griffin | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Hamilton | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Campbell | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Travon Walker | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andre Cisco | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Miles Sanders | 27 | 134 | 5.0 | 2 | +1.3 |
| Jalen Hurts | 16 | 38 | 2.4 | 1 | +0.7 |
| Trey Sermon | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 | +2.3 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 1 | +1.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 7 | 95 | 0 | 29% | +0.2 |
| Dallas Goedert | 5 | 6 | 72 | 0 | 25% | +3.6 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 13% | +1.7 |
| DeVonta Smith | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 17% | −2.1 |
| Quez Watkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.6 |
| Zach Pascal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −8.8 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 8% | −1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Edwards | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyzir White | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josiah Scott | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Davis | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Haason Reddick | 4 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Sweat | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chauncey Gardner-Johnson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Bradberry | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Andre Chachere | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Epps | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
