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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
2022 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 2, 2022 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
JaguarsJacksonville21
BY 8final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia29
Jacksonville Jaguars 21 at Philadelphia Eagles 29. Final.
Eagles -6.5 ✓O 44 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 4
Philadelphia Eagles 29, Jaguars 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 11:30, 2nd and 7, on Andre Cisco — 22.9 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:30 · 2nd and 7
Andre Cisco
Jaguars
(11:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left intended for 3-Z.Pascal INTERCEPTED by 5-A.Cisco (31-D.Williams) at JAX 41. 5-A.Cisco for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.8 mph wind
Eagles closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Philadelphia Eagles 29–21. Biggest swing: Q1 11:30, Jaguars +22.9% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.8 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
22.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetEaglesQ2 3:10(3:10) 16-T.Lawrence FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 34, RECOVERED by PHI-7-H.Reddick at JAX 35.
13.9pts
James BradberryEaglesQ3 4:24(4:24) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at PHI 7. 24-J.Bradberry to PHI 12 for 5 yards (39-J.Agnew).
13.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — 1 giveaway, against Jaguars at 5 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 4 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.12 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.33 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — -0.03 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.33 expected points per snap.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Jaguars157 of 167 plays carry both curves
(11:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left intended for 3-Z.Pascal INTERCEPTED by 5-A.Cisco (31-D.Williams) at JAX 41. 5-A.Cisco for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −22.9 for EaglesExpected points −8.75 for EaglesThe model had Jaguars 15 points higher than the market did.play 13
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:30JAX +23% win prob(11:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left intended for 3-Z.Pascal INTERCEPTED by 5-A.Cisco (31-D.Williams) at JAX 41. 5-A.Cisco for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:10JAX +14% win prob(3:10) 16-T.Lawrence FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 34, RECOVERED by PHI-7-H.Reddick at JAX 35.
3rd · 4:24JAX +13% win prob(4:24) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at PHI 7. 24-J.Bradberry to PHI 12 for 5 yards (39-J.Agnew).
2nd · 0:30PHI +9% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell right guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:20PHI +8% win prob(9:20) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:56PHI +7% win prob(3:56) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 39-J.Agnew for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kenneth Gainwell's 10-yard rushing touchdown with 0:30 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Eagles ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.33Jaguars: −0.33 expected points added per play
−0.03Eagles: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.33Jaguars: −0.33 expected points added per play
−0.27Eagles: −0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.33Jaguars: −0.33 expected points added per play
+0.12Eagles: +0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 46 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Eagles’s 75 at 40%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 3, Eagles 6.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.33.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PHI's play-action rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 4.8 points clear of the next team along.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.3 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
PHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 83.3%, was the highest of the 21 team-games charted in week 4 — 8.3 points clear of the next team along.
6 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.9 points.
PHI's pass rate over expected turned over: +4.8 pts in week 3 against −16.7 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
74 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · −3.4 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Eagles18.5%
right on their number · +0.8 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
NotePHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 36.4%, 18.8 points below their season mean of 55.2% and 2.4 times their own 7.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
78Ben BartchG · Every snap100%47 snaps
79Luke FortnerC · Every snap100%47 snaps
75Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%47 snaps
68Brandon ScherffG · Every snap100%47 snaps
16Trevor LawrenceQB · Every snap100%47 snaps
74Cam RobinsonT · Every snap100%47 snaps
13Christian KirkWR · Full-time94%44 snaps
11Marvin JonesWR · Full-time91%43 snaps
17Evan EngramTE · Heavy rotation74%35 snaps
15Tim JonesWR · Heavy rotation55%26 snaps
1Travis EtienneRB · Heavy rotation51%24 snaps
25James RobinsonRB · Rotational47%22 snaps
39Jamal AgnewWR · Rotational38%18 snaps
84Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational30%14 snaps
85Dan ArnoldTE · Situational13%6 snaps
22Jamycal HastyRB · Situational6%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Montaric BrownDBCole Van LanenGK'Lavon ChaissonOLBSnoop ConnerRBTyree GillespieSSZay JonesWRKendric PryorWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass−24% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left intended for 3-Z.Pascal INTERCEPTED by 5-A.Cisco (31-D.Williams) at JAX 41. 5-A.Cisco for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 11:30 · Eagles · 2nd & 7 at PHI 36 · gained nothing · -8.75 EP · −24.3% win probability
155 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, manual charting on 139. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 80 yards from the JAX 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
41%
Yards
620
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.1135%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.7161%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.0253%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.0343%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.4317%
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 23 to the Jaguars 28
How the play was built
A run-pass option, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Jaguars6Eagles0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Eagles 21 to the Eagles 36
Jaguars7Eagles0
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the Eagles 48
Jaguars13Eagles0
Jaguars14Eagles0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Eagles 3
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Eagles 22 to the Jaguars 40
The period ended3 plays, from the Jaguars 40 to the Jaguars 45
2nd quarter48 plays
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Eagles 41 to the Eagles 34
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Jaguars14Eagles6
Jaguars14Eagles7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 43 to the Jaguars 3
Punt5 plays
Jaguars14Eagles13
Jaguars14Eagles14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the Jaguars 10
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 34
Jaguars14Eagles20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jaguars 35 to the Jaguars 10
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Jaguars 47
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 22 to the Eagles 29
How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerEightPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Jaguars 28 to the Eagles 16
The period ended10 plays, from the Eagles 12 to the Jaguars 22
4th quarter44 plays
Jaguars14Eagles23
Field goal4 plays, from the Jaguars 12 to the Jaguars 10
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 31
Jaguars14Eagles29
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 24 to the Jaguars 5
Jaguars20Eagles29
Jaguars21Eagles29
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 32 to the Eagles 8
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Jaguars 21
Fumble lost1 play
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
