2022 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 2, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TB -1 upsetO 46.5 ✓Buccaneers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Kansas City Chiefs 41–31. Biggest swing: Q2 5:09, KC +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 5:09KC 21 — TB 10TB ball · 1st & 10KC 76%

(5:09) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at TB 26 for -8 yards (38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (38-L.Sneed) [38-L.Sneed], RECOVERED by KC-95-C.Jones at TB 22. 95-C.Jones to TB 20 for 2 yards (67-L.Goedeke).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 5:09KC +13% win prob(5:09) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at TB 26 for -8 yards (38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (38-L.Sneed) [38-L.Sneed], RECOVERED by KC-95-C.Jones at TB 22. 95-C.Jones to TB 20 for 2 yards (67-L.Goedeke).
Q1 · 15:00KC +9% win prob19-M.Wright kicks 67 yards from KC 35 to TB -2. 29-R.White to TB 23 for 25 yards (43-J.Cochrane, 29-C.Lammons). FUMBLES (29-C.Lammons), RECOVERED by KC-44-E.Lee at TB 21.
Q2 · 5:13KC +9% win prob(5:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire.
Q1 · 14:56TB +7% win prob(14:56) (Shotgun) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire up the middle to TB 16 for 5 yards (58-S.Barrett).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 14:20KC Touchdown
(14:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 7 — TB 0
Q1 · 10:17TB Field goal
(10:17) 3-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: KC 7 — TB 3
Q1 · 4:07KC Touchdown
(4:07) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 1-J.McKinnon. 25-C.Edwards-Helaire up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 14 — TB 3
Q2 · 11:35KC Touchdown
(11:35) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [22-K.Neal]. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 21 — TB 3
Q2 · 8:55TB Touchdown
(8:55) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 13-M.Evans for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 21 — TB 10
Q2 · 2:15KC Touchdown
(2:15) Direct snap to 83-N.Gray. 83-N.Gray up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 28 — TB 10
Q2 · 0:15TB Touchdown
(:15) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 28 — TB 17
Q3 · 11:31KC Field goal
(11:31) 19-M.Wright 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: KC 31 — TB 17
Q3 · 5:46KC Touchdown
(5:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 88-J.Fortson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 38 — TB 17
Q3 · 0:47TB Touchdown
(:47) 29-R.White right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 38 — TB 24
Q4 · 10:51KC Field goal
(10:51) 19-M.Wright 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: KC 41 — TB 24
Q4 · 3:35TB Touchdown
(3:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 7-L.Fournette for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 41 — TB 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	77	59
Total yards	417 (edge)	376
Yards per play	5.4	6.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.25 (edge)	0.14
Success rate	55%	56% (edge)
Dropback rate	56%	90%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.27 (edge)	0.18
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.22 (edge)	-0.20
Third downs	12/17 (edge)	6/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	25	25
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

39/52, 385 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

9.5 expected points added · +6.0% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

23/37, 249 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

8.6 expected points added · +1.5% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB

19 att, 92 yds, 1 TD

4.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

11 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

8/10 for 103 yds, 2 TD

19% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

9/10 for 92 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 10.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	—	1	0	0:04	Fumble
2	KC	TB 21	3	21	0:42	Touchdown +7
3	TB	TB 28	8	45	4:02	Field goal +3
4	KC	KC 21	14	79	6:11	Touchdown +7
5	TB	TB 25	5	8	1:43	Punt
6	KC	KC 18	12	86	5:52	Touchdown +7
7	TB	TB 25	8	75	2:36	Touchdown +7
8	KC	KC 26	9	25	3:41	Turnover on downs
9	TB	TB 34	1	-12	0:07	Fumble
10	KC	TB 20	7	20	2:51	Touchdown +7
11	TB	TB 25	14	64	2:01	Touchdown +7
12	KC	KC 42	2	-11	0:10	End of half
13	KC	KC 25	11	49	3:34	Field goal +3
14	TB	TB 25	7	10	0:55	Punt
15	KC	KC 35	10	65	4:49	Touchdown +7
16	TB	TB 25	13	73	4:58	Touchdown +7
17	KC	KC 40	10	46	4:57	Field goal +3
18	TB	TB 25	7	27	2:59	Punt
19	KC	KC 34	5	16	3:06	Interception
20	TB	KC 34	6	34	1:12	Touchdown +7
21	KC	KC 25	8	21	2:45	Punt
22	TB	TB 21	5	52	0:45	End of game

12 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 86 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	23/37	249	3	1	3	8.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	19	92	4.8	1	4.7
Isiah Pacheco	11	63	5.7	0	2.0
Patrick Mahomes	4	34	8.5	0	4.2
Noah Gray	1	1	1.0	1	1.5
Jerick McKinnon	2	-1	-0.5	0	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	9	10	92	1	29%	10.9
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	3	5	63	0	15%	2.2
JuJu Smith-Schuster	5	8	46	0	24%	-0.8
Skyy Moore	2	4	31	0	12%	1.4
Joseph Fortson	1	1	10	1	3%	2.4
Mecole Hardman	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	1	2	2	1	6%	-2.2
Jerick McKinnon	1	1	1	0	3%	-0.1
Noah Gray	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Justin Watson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nick Bolton	6	3	0.0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	6	2	1.0	0
Rashad Fenton	5	1	0.0	1
Bryan Cook	2	3	0.0	1
Jaylen Watson	5	0	0.0	1
Justin Reid	3	2	0.0	0
Tershawn Wharton	1	1	0.0	0
George Karlaftis	2	0	0.0	0
Derrick Nnadi	2	0	0.0	0
Patrick Mahomes	1	0	0.0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	39/52	385	3	0	1	9.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rachaad White	3	6	2.0	1	1.4
Leonard Fournette	3	-3	-1.0	0	-2.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	8	10	103	2	19%	9.3
Chris Godwin	7	10	59	0	19%	1.4
Leonard Fournette	7	7	57	1	13%	1.2
Rachaad White	5	5	50	0	10%	3.6
Cameron Brate	4	8	32	0	15%	0.1
Cade Otton	3	4	29	0	8%	0.6
Russell Gage	2	4	24	0	8%	-1.8
Ko Kieft	1	1	19	0	2%	1.2
Julio Jones	1	2	7	0	4%	0.2
Cole Beasley	1	1	5	0	2%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Mike Edwards	5	8	1.0	0
Devin White	7	3	0.0	1
Lavonte David	7	2	0.0	1
Keanu Neal	5	0	0.0	0
Antoine Winfield	3	2	0.0	0
Carl Nassib	2	2	1.0	0
Vita Vea	1	3	0.0	0
Shaquil Barrett	2	2	0.0	0
William Gholston	2	1	0.0	0
Carlton Davis	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -1
Closing total: 46.5
KC moneyline: +113
TB moneyline: -125

Buccaneers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 72 — over by 25.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: KC 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Todd Bowles