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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 2, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 4
It turned at Q2 5:09, 1st and 10, on Tom Brady — 12.8 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 5:09 · 1st and 10
Tom Brady
Chiefs
(5:09) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at TB 26 for -8 yards (38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (38-L.Sneed) [38-L.Sneed], RECOVERED by KC-95-C.Jones at TB 22. 95-C.Jones to TB 20 for 2 yards (67-L.Goedeke).
Kansas City Chiefs 41–31. Biggest swing: Q2 5:09, Chiefs +12.8% win probability on one snap.
12.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.22 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — 1 giveaway, against Buccaneers at 2 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 3 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 12 of 17 on third down, against Buccaneers at 6 of 10 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 0.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chiefs.
(5:09) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at TB 26 for -8 yards (38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (38-L.Sneed) [38-L.Sneed], RECOVERED by KC-95-C.Jones at TB 22. 95-C.Jones to TB 20 for 2 yards (67-L.Goedeke).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Travis Kelce's 16-yard touchdown catch with 14:20 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 11 scores that followed.
Travis Kelce16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+77–0
Matthew Wright44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+331–17Matthew Wright32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+341–2412 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Chiefs ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Buccaneers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 77 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 59 at 90%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 6, Buccaneers 4.
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's early-down pass rate, 89.8%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 14.8 points clear of the next team along.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.3 points.
TB's pass rate over expected, +17.0 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 5.4 points clear of the next team along.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
KC's sack or hit rate turned over: 23.3% in week 3 against 9.4% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
KC's blitz rate sent turned over: 41.9% in week 3 against 22.6% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 29 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs11.6 ptsright on their number · +0.9 vs their 10.7 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 77 snaps
Buccaneers17.0 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +12.8 vs their 4.2 pts, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.69× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 98%
Tendencies room →Chiefs50.8%leaned — ran early · −11.3 vs their 62.2%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (−1.22× that swing) · 59 early downs
Buccaneers89.8%leaned — passed early · +25.8 vs their 64.0%, and they swing ±13.3 week to week (+1.94× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 40%
Tendencies room →Chiefs11.6%inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Buccaneers15.1%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -58% to 100%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 19.2%.
Buccaneers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 42.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 56%
Tendencies room →Chiefs22.6%right on their number · −3.2 vs their 25.8%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Buccaneers23.3%leaned — sat back · −9.7 vs their 32.9%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 32%
Tendencies room →Chiefs9.4%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.7 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Buccaneers14.0%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
TB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 89.8%, 25.8 points above their season mean of 64.0% and 1.9 times their own 13.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
39/52, 385 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
9.5 expected points added · +6.0% completion over expected
Passing · KC
23/37, 249 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
8.6 expected points added · +1.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Mike Evans banked 8.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike EvansWR · Featured Receiver | 30.3 | +8.8 | 91% | 92% | 19% | 38% | 8/10, 103 yd, 2 TD |
| Tom BradyQB · Starter QB | 25.4 | +2.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 39/52, 385 yd, 3 TD |
| Travis KelceTE · Alpha Receiver | 24.2 | +7.0 | 81% | 81% | 29% | 21% | 9/10, 92 yd, 1 TD |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 23.4 | −3.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/37, 249 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 34 yd |
| Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Committee Back | 22.4 | +7.2 | 56% | 51% | 6% | 2% | 19 car, 92 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 2 yd, 1 TD |
| Leonard FournetteRB | 18.4 | +4.8 | 61% | 60% | 13% | 0% | 3 car, -3 yd · 7/7, 57 yd, 1 TD |
| Rachaad WhiteRB | 16.6 | +3.2 | 38% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 3 car, 6 yd, 1 TD · 5/5, 50 yd |
| Chris GodwinWR · Featured Receiver | 12.9 | −3.0 | 83% | 85% | 19% | 18% | 7/10, 59 yd |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Featured Receiver | 9.6 | −2.1 | 63% | 67% | 24% | 15% | 5/8, 46 yd |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.3 | −4.1 | 69% | 70% | 15% | 24% | 3/5, 63 yd |
| Joseph FortsonTE | 8.0 | +5.5 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Cameron BrateTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | −7.1 | 34% | 38% | 15% | 12% | 4/8, 32 yd |
| Isiah PachecoRB | 6.3 | 0.0 | 21% | 14% | 0% | — | 11 car, 63 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | +0.9 | 58% | 40% | 3% | 5% | 1 car, 1 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | +0.8 | 67% | 62% | 8% | 6% | 3/4, 29 yd |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | −2.5 | 28% | 26% | 12% | 19% | 2/4, 31 yd |
| Russell GageWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −1.3 | 64% | 62% | 8% | 9% | 2/4, 24 yd |
| Ko KieftTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | +0.7 | 14% | 11% | 2% | 5% | 1/1, 19 yd |
| Julio JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −2.2 | 28% | 32% | 4% | 16% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Cole BeasleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Mecole HardmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | 46% | 40% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Jerick McKinnonRB | 1.0 | −7.5 | 23% | 26% | 3% | 0% | 2 car, -1 yd · 1/1, 1 yd |
| Justin WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.0 | 18% | 14% | 3% | 10% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jaelon DardenWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:09) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at TB 26 for -8 yards (38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (38-L.Sneed) [38-L.Sneed], RECOVERED by KC-95-C.Jones at TB 22. 95-C.Jones to TB 20 for 2 yards (67-L.Goedeke).
Q2 5:09 · Buccaneers · 1st & 10 at TB 34 · lost 12 · -5.82 EP · −9.8% win probability
174 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 188 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 188 snaps, manual charting on 151. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
12 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 87 yards from the KC 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chiefs6
Buccaneers0Chiefs7Buccaneers0Chiefs7Buccaneers3Chiefs13Buccaneers3Chiefs14Buccaneers3Chiefs20Buccaneers3Chiefs21Buccaneers3Chiefs21Buccaneers9Chiefs21Buccaneers10Chiefs27Buccaneers10Chiefs28Buccaneers10Chiefs28Buccaneers16Chiefs28Buccaneers17Chiefs31Buccaneers17Chiefs37Buccaneers17Chiefs38Buccaneers17Chiefs38Buccaneers23Chiefs38Buccaneers24Chiefs41Buccaneers24Chiefs41Buccaneers30Chiefs41Buccaneers31Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 23/37 | 249 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +8.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 19 | 92 | 4.8 | 1 | +4.7 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 11 | 63 | 5.7 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 | +4.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 9 | 10 | 92 | 1 | 29% | +10.9 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 15% | +2.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bolton | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 6 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashad Fenton | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bryan Cook |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 39/52 | 385 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +9.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_04_KC_TB
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 72 — over by 25.5.
Conditions and crew
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | +1.5 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | −1.7 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 5 | 8 | 46 | 0 | 24% | −0.8 |
| Skyy Moore | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 12% | +1.4 |
| Joseph Fortson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 3% | +2.4 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6% | −2.2 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Noah Gray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Jaylen Watson | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Reid | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tershawn Wharton | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Karlaftis | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Nnadi | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 |
| 6 |
| 2.0 |
| 1 |
| +1.4 |
| Leonard Fournette | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 8 | 10 | 103 | 2 | 19% | +9.3 |
| Chris Godwin | 7 | 10 | 59 | 0 | 19% | +1.4 |
| Leonard Fournette | 7 | 7 | 57 | 1 | 13% | +1.2 |
| Rachaad White | 5 | 5 | 50 | 0 | 10% | +3.6 |
| Cameron Brate | 4 | 8 | 32 | 0 | 15% | +0.1 |
| Cade Otton | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 8% | +0.6 |
| Russell Gage | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 8% | −1.8 |
| Ko Kieft | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 2% | +1.2 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Edwards | 5 | 8 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin White | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lavonte David | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Keanu Neal | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Nassib | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vita Vea | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquil Barrett | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| William Gholston | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
