For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 2, 2022 · NRG Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 4
It turned at Q4 5:23, 4th and 2, on Austin Ekeler — 12.4 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Los Angeles Chargers 34–24. Biggest swing: Q4 5:23, Chargers +12.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:23 · 4th and 2
Austin Ekeler
Chargers
(5:23) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler to HOU 34 for 21 yards (36-J.Owens).
12.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.42 expected points per dropback, against Texans at -0.22 expected points per dropback.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Texans owned this one and still lost it — +0.37 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.04 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Chargers won this one — +0.25 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.07 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
(5:23) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler to HOU 34 for 21 yards (36-J.Owens).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Gerald Everett's 18-yard touchdown catch with 12:04 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Gerald Everett18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin HerbertLead never changed again+77–010 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chargerscategory by categoryTexans
Chargers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 63 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Texans’s 53 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 6, Texans 4.
Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's sack or hit rate, 2.5%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 1.1 points clear of the next team along.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
LAC's sack or hit rate turned over: 4.9% in week 3 against 25.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
LAC's play-action rate turned over: 14.9% in week 3 against 37.5% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
HOU's blitz rate sent turned over: 8.0% in week 3 against 30.0% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
LAC's early-down pass rate turned over: 79.1% in week 3 against 53.2% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points. · −0.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Chargers-0.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their 4.3 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 63 snaps
Texans2.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 93%
Tendencies room →Chargers53.2%inside their normal wobble · −10.5 vs their 63.7%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−0.92× that swing) · 47 early downs
Texans64.1%inside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their 58.2%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (+0.53× that swing) · 39 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 49%
Tendencies room →Chargers37.5%leaned — faked the run · +10.8 vs their 26.7%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+1.25× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Texans25.6%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 91%
Fourth Down room →Chargers20.0%inside their normal wobble · −10.4 vs their 30.4%, and they swing ±18.2 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Texans33.3%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 31.3%, and they swing ±23.6 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 61%
Tendencies room →Chargers41.0%inside their normal wobble · +9.7 vs their 31.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Texans30.0%leaned — sent pressure · +11.8 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 35%
Tendencies room →Chargers25.6%leaned — got home · +12.2 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+1.74× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Texans2.5%leaned — stayed blocked · −11.8 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−1.43× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
LAC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.6%, 12.2 points above their season mean of 13.5% and 1.7 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
27/39, 340 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
16.7 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected
Passing · HOU
26/35, 246 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-8.7 expected points added · +5.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Austin Ekeler banked 15.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin EkelerRB · Committee Back | 34.9 | +15.6 | 59% | 63% | 19% | 0% | 13 car, 60 yd, 2 TD · 6/7, 49 yd, 1 TD |
| Dameon PierceRB · Bell Cow Back | 25.9 | +10.1 | 68% | 56% | 17% | 0% | 14 car, 131 yd, 1 TD · 6/6, 8 yd |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 21.1 | +1.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/39, 340 yd, 2 TD · 4 car, -5 yd |
| Mike WilliamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.0 | −2.2 | 93% | 100% | 30% | 44% | 7/11, 120 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Featured Receiver | 18.7 | +6.8 | 81% | 87% | 20% | 18% | 7/7, 57 yd, 1 TD |
| Gerald EverettTE · Rotational Receiver | 17.1 | +4.7 | 66% | 73% | 16% | 22% | 5/6, 61 yd, 1 TD |
| Rex BurkheadRB · Receiving Back | 14.9 | +7.4 | 32% | 44% | 14% | 0% | 5/5, 39 yd, 1 TD |
| Davis MillsQB · Starter QB | 13.8 | +2.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/35, 246 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT |
| Nico CollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.2 | +2.9 | 77% | 72% | 14% | 43% | 3/5, 82 yd |
| Michael BandyWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.9 | +3.3 | 29% | 25% | 5% | 16% | 2/2, 49 yd |
| Sony MichelRB | 5.7 | −2.1 | 24% | 18% | 8% | 0% | 6 car, 11 yd · 3/3, 16 yd |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | +2.4 | 35% | 46% | 6% | 5% | 2/2, 33 yd |
| O.J. HowardTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | −4.6 | 75% | 69% | 14% | 31% | 2/5, 27 yd |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | −3.1 | 70% | 80% | 8% | 9% | 2/3, 16 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +1.4 | 56% | 60% | 3% | 8% | 1/1, 25 yd |
| Joshua KelleyRB | 1.5 | −3.7 | 20% | 25% | 5% | 3% | 4 car, 15 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Tre' McKittyTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.1 | 53% | 40% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Mason SchreckTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −0.3 | 33% | 36% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 0 yd |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Chris MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.4 | 56% | 56% | 6% | 2% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Phillip DorsettWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.6 | 19% | 21% | 6% | 6% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Zander HorvathRB | 0.0 | −1.7 | 11% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
7-K.Fairbairn kicks 64 yards from HOU 35 to LAC 1. 1-D.Carter to LAC 17 for 16 yards (29-M.Stewart). FUMBLES (29-M.Stewart), RECOVERED by HOU-44-J.Reeves-Maybin at LAC 16.
Q4 10:02 · Chargers · Kickoff at HOU 35 · gained nothing · -6.23 EP · −20.6% win probability
161 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 175 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps, manual charting on 143. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 93 yards from the HOU 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Chargers6
Texans0Chargers7Texans0Chargers13Texans0Chargers14Texans0Chargers20Texans0Chargers21Texans0Chargers21Texans6Chargers21Texans7Chargers24Texans7Chargers27Texans7Chargers27Texans13Chargers27Texans14Chargers27Texans20Chargers27Texans21Chargers27Texans24How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chargers33Texans24Chargers34Texans24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chargers at Texans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 27/39 | 340 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +16.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 13 | 60 | 4.6 | 2 | +0.6 |
| Joshua Kelley | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Sony Michel |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 7 | 11 | 120 | 0 | 30% | +6.7 |
| Gerald Everett | 5 | 6 | 61 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drue Tranquill | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derwin James | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Asante Samuel |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 26/35 | 246 | 2 | 2 | 4 | −8.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_04_LAC_HOU
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 45; the game landed 58 — over by 13.0.
Conditions and crew
| 6 |
| 11 |
| 1.8 |
| 0 |
| −1.6 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | -5 | -1.3 | 0 | −4.1 |
| 16% |
| +3.7 |
| Austin Ekeler | 6 | 7 | 49 | 1 | 19% | +3.1 |
| Michael Bandy | 2 | 2 | 49 | 0 | 5% | +3.5 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 3% | +1.5 |
| Sony Michel | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 8% | +1.7 |
| DeAndre Carter | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 8% | +1.0 |
| Tre' McKitty | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Joshua Kelley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.5 |
| Zander Horvath | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Sebastian Joseph | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Murray | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nasir Adderley | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kyle Van Noy | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Callahan | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Khalil Mack | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Johnson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 14 | 131 | 9.4 | 1 | +5.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 3 | 5 | 82 | 0 | 14% | −1.8 |
| Brandin Cooks | 7 | 7 | 57 | 1 | 20% | +5.4 |
| Rex Burkhead | 5 | 5 | 39 | 1 | 14% | +3.5 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 6% | +1.5 |
| O.J. Howard | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 14% | −2.4 |
| Dameon Pierce | 6 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 17% | −3.4 |
| Mason Schreck | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.2 |
| Chris Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Pitre | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Nelson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamu Grugier-Hill | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Owens | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Derek Stingley | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirksey | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasheem Green | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerry Hughes | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Reeves-Maybin | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Desmond King | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
