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Los Angeles Chargers 34 at Houston Texans 24. Final.
Chargers -5.5 ✓O 45 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 4
Los Angeles Chargers 34, Texans 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 5:23, 4th and 2, on Austin Ekeler — 12.4 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:23 · 4th and 2
Austin Ekeler
Chargers
(5:23) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler to HOU 34 for 21 yards (36-J.Owens).
Dome
Chargers closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Los Angeles Chargers 34–24. Biggest swing: Q4 5:23, Chargers +12.4% win probability on one snap.
12.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Nasir AdderleyChargersQ1 13:40(13:40) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right intended for 12-N.Collins INTERCEPTED by 24-N.Adderley [52-K.Mack] at LAC 45. 24-N.Adderley to HOU 25 for 30 yards (12-N.Collins).
9.9pts
Unnamed on the sheetTexansQ4 10:027-K.Fairbairn kicks 64 yards from HOU 35 to LAC 1. 1-D.Carter to LAC 17 for 16 yards (29-M.Stewart). FUMBLES (29-M.Stewart), RECOVERED by HOU-44-J.Reeves-Maybin at LAC 16.
12.2pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.42 expected points per dropback, against Texans at -0.22 expected points per dropback.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Texans owned this one and still lost it — +0.37 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.04 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Chargers won this one — +0.25 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.07 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Chargers163 of 175 plays carry both curves
(5:23) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler to HOU 34 for 21 yards (36-J.Owens).
Swing −12.4 for TexansExpected points −3.56 for TexansThe model had Texans 8 points higher than the market did.play 152
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:23HOU +12% win prob(5:23) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler to HOU 34 for 21 yards (36-J.Owens).
4th · 10:02LAC +12% win prob7-K.Fairbairn kicks 64 yards from HOU 35 to LAC 1. 1-D.Carter to LAC 17 for 16 yards (29-M.Stewart). FUMBLES (29-M.Stewart), RECOVERED by HOU-44-J.Reeves-Maybin at LAC 16.
1st · 13:40LAC +10% win prob(13:40) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right intended for 12-N.Collins INTERCEPTED by 24-N.Adderley [52-K.Mack] at LAC 45. 24-N.Adderley to HOU 25 for 30 yards (12-N.Collins).
4th · 10:08HOU +8% win prob(10:08) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 13-B.Cooks for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:34HOU +6% win prob(2:34) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 7:22HOU +5% win prob(7:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 81-M.Williams to LAC 37 for 13 yards (24-D.Stingley, 36-J.Owens). HOU-24-D.Stingley was injured during the play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Gerald Everett's 18-yard touchdown catch with 12:04 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Chargers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.25Chargers: +0.25 expected points added per play
−0.07Texans: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.42Chargers: +0.42 expected points added per play
−0.22Texans: −0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Chargers: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.37Texans: +0.37 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 63 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Texans’s 53 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 6, Texans 4.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
HOU's sack or hit rate, 2.5%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 1.1 points clear of the next team along.
A 3.6-swing turn from week 3.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
LAC's sack or hit rate turned over: 4.9% in week 3 against 25.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
LAC's play-action rate turned over: 14.9% in week 3 against 37.5% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
HOU's blitz rate sent turned over: 8.0% in week 3 against 30.0% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points.
LAC's early-down pass rate turned over: 79.1% in week 3 against 53.2% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 20 pts
leaned — got home · +12.2 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+1.74× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Texans2.5%
leaned — stayed blocked · −11.8 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−1.43× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteLAC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.6%, 12.2 points above their season mean of 13.5% and 1.7 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Fairbairn kicks−21% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
7-K.Fairbairn kicks 64 yards from HOU 35 to LAC 1. 1-D.Carter to LAC 17 for 16 yards (29-M.Stewart). FUMBLES (29-M.Stewart), RECOVERED by HOU-44-J.Reeves-Maybin at LAC 16.
Q4 10:02 · Chargers · Kickoff at HOU 35 · gained nothing · -6.23 EP · −20.6% win probability
161 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps, manual charting on 143. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 93 yards from the HOU 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
36%
Yards
765
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.4869%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.3677%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.0673%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.1689%
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.4183%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.5050%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+1.5520%
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
The period ended5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 30
Chargers6Texans0
Chargers7Texans0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 18
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Chargers 43
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 27 to the Chargers 32
No good9 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Chargers 28
The period ended6 plays, from the Chargers 36 to the Texans 40
2nd quarter53 plays
Chargers13Texans0
Chargers14Texans0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Texans 10
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 30
Chargers20Texans0
Chargers21Texans0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chargers 27 to the Texans 20
Chargers21Texans6
Chargers21Texans7
Touchdown4 plays
Chargers24Texans7
Field goal11 plays, from the Chargers 18 to the Texans 5
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Chargers 24
Chargers27Texans7
Field goal13 plays, from the Chargers 32 to the Texans 14
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Chargers 27
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 27 to the Texans 41
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 19 to the Texans 45
Chargers27Texans13
Chargers27Texans14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 13 to the Chargers 8
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 27
4th quarter48 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 31 to the Chargers 42
Chargers27Texans20
Chargers27Texans21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Texans 7 to the Chargers 18
Fumble lost1 play
Chargers27Texans24
Field goal4 plays, from the Chargers 16 to the Chargers 13
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Chargers33Texans24
Chargers34Texans24
Touchdown18 plays, from the Chargers 16 to the Texans 14
Intercepted5 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -5.5
Closing total
45
Chargers moneyline
-234
Texans moneyline
+205
Chargers closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 45; the game landed 58 — over by 13.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Chargers 7 days · Texans 7 days
Coaches
Brandon Staley vs Lovie Smith
4th · 3:16HOU +5% win prob(3:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 81-M.Williams to HOU 19 for 11 yards (58-C.Kirksey). HOU-24-D.Stingley was injured during the play.
4th · 9:22LAC +4% win prob(9:22) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills sacked at LAC 21 for -8 yards (99-J.Tillery). FUMBLES (99-J.Tillery) [99-J.Tillery], touched at LAC 20, recovered by HOU-88-J.Akins at LAC 22. HOU-71-T.Howard was injured during the play.
