For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2022 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 2, 2022 · NRG Stadium

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

34

Houston Texans

24

LAC -5.5 ✓O 45 ✓Dome

Los Angeles Chargers 34–24. Biggest swing: Q4 5:23, HOU +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3HOU ↑LAC ↓
Q4 · 5:23LAC 27 — HOU 24LAC ball · 4th & 2LAC 77%

(5:23) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler to HOU 34 for 21 yards (36-J.Owens).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 5:23HOU +12% win prob(5:23) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler to HOU 34 for 21 yards (36-J.Owens).
  2. Q4 · 10:02LAC +12% win prob7-K.Fairbairn kicks 64 yards from HOU 35 to LAC 1. 1-D.Carter to LAC 17 for 16 yards (29-M.Stewart). FUMBLES (29-M.Stewart), RECOVERED by HOU-44-J.Reeves-Maybin at LAC 16.
  3. Q1 · 13:40LAC +10% win prob(13:40) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right intended for 12-N.Collins INTERCEPTED by 24-N.Adderley [52-K.Mack] at LAC 45. 24-N.Adderley to HOU 25 for 30 yards (12-N.Collins).
  4. Q4 · 10:08HOU +8% win prob(10:08) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 13-B.Cooks for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:04LAC Touchdown

    (12:04) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 7-G.Everett for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 7 — HOU 0
  2. Q2 · 13:02LAC Touchdown

    (13:02) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler right guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 14 — HOU 0
  3. Q2 · 10:07LAC Touchdown

    (10:07) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 21 — HOU 0
  4. Q2 · 10:00HOU Touchdown

    (10:00) 31-D.Pierce right end for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 21 — HOU 7
  5. Q2 · 4:38LAC Field goal

    (4:38) 6-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 24 — HOU 7
  6. Q2 · 0:04LAC Field goal

    (:04) 6-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 27 — HOU 7
  7. Q3 · 1:17HOU Touchdown

    (1:17) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 28-R.Burkhead for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 27 — HOU 14
  8. Q4 · 10:08HOU Touchdown

    (10:08) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 13-B.Cooks for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 27 — HOU 21
  9. Q4 · 8:34HOU Field goal

    (8:34) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

    Score after this play: LAC 27 — HOU 24
  10. Q4 · 2:34LAC Touchdown

    (2:34) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 34 — HOU 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChargersTexans
Offensive plays6353
Total yards424 (edge)346
Yards per play6.7 (edge)6.5
Expected points added / play0.25 (edge)-0.07
Success rate43% (edge)32%
Dropback rate63%74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.42 (edge)-0.22
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.040.37 (edge)
Third downs8/15 (edge)4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)10 (edge)7
First downs gained on snaps20 (edge)13
Sacks taken1 (edge)4
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

27/39, 340 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

16.7 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

26/35, 246 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-8.7 expected points added · +5.3% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Dameon PierceRB

14 att, 131 yds, 1 TD

5.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

13 att, 60 yds, 2 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Mike WilliamsWR

7/11 for 120 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

3/5 for 82 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · -1.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1HOUHOU 25451:32Interception
2LACHOU 254201:28Touchdown +7
3HOUHOU 28723:57Punt
4LACLAC 27451:37Punt
5HOUHOU 308324:07Missed field goal
6LACLAC 3610644:22Touchdown +7
7HOUHOU 25551:39Punt
8LACLAC 274731:18Touchdown +7
9HOUHOU 253750:12Touchdown +7
10LACLAC 1811775:13Field goal +3
11HOUHOU 258383:38Turnover on downs
12LACLAC 329540:57Field goal +3
13LACLAC 21561:33Punt
14HOUHOU 277173:32Punt
15LACLAC 198364:13Punt
16HOUHOU 139874:30Touchdown +7
17LACLAC 258103:17Punt
18HOUHOU 76932:53Touchdown +7
19LAC—100:04Fumble
20HOULAC 164-41:28Field goal +3
21LACLAC 1614796:02Touchdown +7
22HOUHOU 255-60:37Interception
23LACHOU 22401:35Turnover on downs
24HOUHOU 32120:16End of game

10 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 93 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert27/3934020116.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Austin Ekeler13604.620.6
Joshua Kelley4153.80-0.0
Sony Michel6111.80-1.6
Justin Herbert4-5-1.30-4.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mike Williams711120030%6.7
Gerald Everett5661116%3.7
Austin Ekeler6749119%3.1
Michael Bandy224905%3.5
Josh Palmer112503%1.5
Sony Michel331608%1.7
DeAndre Carter231608%1.0
Tre' McKitty11403%-0.5
Joshua Kelley02005%-1.5
Zander Horvath01003%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Drue Tranquill360.000
Derwin James340.002
Asante Samuel500.000
Sebastian Joseph221.000
Kenneth Murray220.000
Nasir Adderley210.011
Kyle Van Noy210.000
Bryce Callahan300.012
Khalil Mack111.000
Austin Johnson200.000

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Davis Mills26/35246224-8.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Dameon Pierce141319.415.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Nico Collins3582014%-1.8
Brandin Cooks7757120%5.4
Rex Burkhead5539114%3.5
Jordan Akins223306%1.5
O.J. Howard2527014%-2.4
Dameon Pierce668017%-3.4
Mason Schreck11003%-1.0
Phillip Dorsett02006%-1.2
Chris Moore02006%-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jalen Pitre240.000
Steven Nelson510.000
Kamu Grugier-Hill410.000
Jonathan Owens310.001
Derek Stingley310.000
Christian Kirksey220.000
Rasheem Green210.500
Jerry Hughes120.000
Jalen Reeves-Maybin110.000
Desmond King200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LAC -5.5
Closing total
45
LAC moneyline
-234
HOU moneyline
+205

Chargers closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 45; the game landed 58 — over by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
LAC 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches
Brandon Staley vs Lovie Smith