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connecting · reading the slate
Game Center
2022 Week 4 · Mon, Oct 3, 2022 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 4
It turned at Q4 6:36, 1st and 10, on Talanoa Hufanga — 15.2 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 24–9. Biggest swing: Q4 6:36, 49ers +15.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:36 · 1st and 10
Talanoa Hufanga
49ers
(6:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Hufanga at SF 48. 29-T.Hufanga for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.41 expected points per dropback, against Rams at -0.23 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.20 expected points per snap, against Rams at -0.22 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Rams at 2 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Rams at 1 chunk play.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
(6:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Hufanga at SF 48. 29-T.Hufanga for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jeffery Wilson's 32-yard rushing touchdown with 2:52 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ramscategory by category49ers
49ers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 73 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against 49ers’s 49 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Rams 3, 49ers 3.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
LA's early-down pass rate turned over: 52.8% in week 3 against 75.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Rams6.5 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +9.9 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+1.45× that swing) · 73 snaps
49ers-1.6 ptsright on their number · +2.5 vs their -4.1 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 49 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 15% to 84%
Tendencies room →Rams75.0%leaned — passed early · +18.0 vs their 57.0%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+1.79× that swing) · 56 early downs
49ers44.4%right on their number · −3.3 vs their 47.7%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 36 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 60%
Tendencies room →Rams17.9%inside their normal wobble · −10.6 vs their 28.5%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
49ers7.1%leaned — dropped back clean · −12.8 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.77× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -52% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Rams—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.8%.
49ers33.3%right on their number · +8.6 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±19.8 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 57%
Tendencies room →Rams14.3%leaned — sat back · −14.1 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−1.25× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
49ers10.7%leaned — sat back · −7.5 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.24× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 36%
Tendencies room →Rams3.6%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.5 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.22× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
49ers21.4%inside their normal wobble · +4.0 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
LA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 18.0 points above their season mean of 57.0% and 1.8 times their own 10.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · LA
32/48, 254 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-12.8 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected
Passing · SF
16/27, 239 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
10.7 expected points added · -8.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Deebo Samuel banked 12.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo SamuelWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.7 | +12.3 | 80% | 93% | 28% | 11% | 2 car, 2 yd · 6/7, 115 yd, 1 TD |
| Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Starter QB | 13.9 | +3.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/27, 239 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 3 yd |
| Jeffery WilsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.4 | +2.1 | 66% | 46% | 0% | — | 18 car, 74 yd, 1 TD |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | +2.0 | 92% | 96% | 16% | 3% | 4/4, 37 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 5.4 | +3.4 | 64% | 75% | 4% | 2% | 1 car, 9 yd · 1/1, 35 yd |
| George KittleTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −4.6 | 94% | 96% | 16% | 17% | 2/4, 24 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −1.7 | 36% | 43% | 16% | 25% | 2/4, 22 yd |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −2.8 | 18% | 18% | 12% | 23% | 1/3, 6 yd |
| Marlon MackRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.1 | 38% | 21% | 4% | 16% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Ross DwelleyTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Malik TurnerWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Hufanga at SF 48. 29-T.Hufanga for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 6:36 · Rams · 1st & 10 at SF 44 · gained nothing · -9.95 EP · −13.2% win probability
152 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 164 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, manual charting on 140. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 75 yards from the SF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Rams3
49ers0Rams349ers6Rams349ers7Rams649ers7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Rams649ers13Rams649ers14Rams949ers14Rams949ers17How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, it should have been intercepted.
Rams949ers23Rams949ers24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Rams at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 32/48 | 254 | 0 | 1 | 7 | −12.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Cam Akers | 8 | 13 | 1.6 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Brandon Powell |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 14 | 19 | 122 | 0 | 40% | −1.4 |
| Tyler Higbee | 10 | 14 | 73 | 0 | 29% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Wagner | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Donald | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ernest Jones |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 16/27 | 239 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +10.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_04_LA_SF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -1 and covered, winning by 15.
Total closed 42; the game landed 33 — under by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 11 |
| 11.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.6 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| +2.8 |
| Ben Skowronek | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 6% | +2.3 |
| Darrell Henderson | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 8% | −0.5 |
| Allen Robinson | 2 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 13% | −3.9 |
| Kendall Blanton | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2% | +0.1 |
| Cam Akers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.7 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Leonard Floyd | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Scott | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derion Kendrick | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Grant Haley | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Hollins | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Rapp | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Fuller | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 18 | 74 | 4.1 | 1 | −1.4 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Deebo Samuel | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel | 6 | 7 | 115 | 1 | 28% | +9.3 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 16% | +1.8 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 1 | 35 | 0 | 4% | +2.2 |
| George Kittle | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 16% | −0.4 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 16% | +0.8 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 12% | −1.2 |
| Ross Dwelley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Charlie Woerner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dre Greenlaw | 11 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Warner | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Moseley | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Samson Ebukam | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charvarius Ward | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kevin Givens | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Bosa | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arik Armstead | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
