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2022 Week 4 · Mon, Oct 3, 2022 · Levi's Stadium

Los Angeles Rams

9

San Francisco 49ersWinner

24

SF -1 ✓U 42 ✓

San Francisco 49ers 24–9. Biggest swing: Q4 6:36, LA +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SF ↑LA ↓
Q4 · 6:36LA 9 — SF 23LA ball · 1st & 10SF 82%

(6:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Hufanga at SF 48. 29-T.Hufanga for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 6:36LA +15% win prob(6:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Hufanga at SF 48. 29-T.Hufanga for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 3:01SF +12% win prob(3:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 19-D.Samuel for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 52 YAC
  3. Q1 · 1:38SF +7% win prob(1:38) 11-R.Dixon punts 56 yards to SF 26, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-26-T.Burgess.
  4. Q3 · 5:24SF +7% win prob(5:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp pushed ob at SF 7 for 14 yards (7-C.Ward). 14 YAC

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:53LA Field goal

    (6:53) 8-M.Gay 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: LA 3 — SF 0
  2. Q1 · 2:52SF Touchdown

    (2:52) 22-J.Wilson left guard for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 3 — SF 7
  3. Q2 · 6:26LA Field goal

    (6:26) 8-M.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: LA 6 — SF 7
  4. Q2 · 3:01SF Touchdown

    (3:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 19-D.Samuel for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 52 YAC (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 6 — SF 14
  5. Q3 · 4:28LA Field goal

    (4:28) 8-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: LA 9 — SF 14
  6. Q4 · 14:56SF Field goal

    (14:56) 9-R.Gould 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: LA 9 — SF 17
  7. Q4 · 6:36SF Touchdown

    (6:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Hufanga at SF 48. 29-T.Hufanga for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 9 — SF 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRams49ers
Offensive plays7349
Total yards257327 (edge)
Yards per play3.56.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.220.20 (edge)
Success rate42% (edge)35%
Dropback rate77%57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.230.41 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.18-0.09 (edge)
Third downs5/155/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)15 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps19 (edge)13
Sacks taken70 (edge)
Turnovers20 (edge)

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.22.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

32/48, 254 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-12.8 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

16/27, 239 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

10.7 expected points added · -8.4% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Jeffery WilsonRB

18 att, 74 yds, 1 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Darrell HendersonRB

7 att, 27 yds, 0 TD

-2.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

14/19 for 122 yds, 0 TD

40% of team targets · -1.4 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

6/7 for 115 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LALA 2515598:12Field goal +3
2SFSF 2510754:02Touchdown +7
3LALA 255-71:19Punt
4SFSF 267313:47Punt
5LALA 20410:49Punt
6SFSF 22400:21Punt
7LALA 3510495:08Field goal +3
8SFSF 258753:36Touchdown +7
9LALA 21802:15Punt
10SFSF 31460:31Turnover on downs
11SFSF 257262:52Punt
12LALA 1816707:43Field goal +3
13SFSF 2710724:32Field goal +3
14LALA 21501:34Punt
15SFSF 457414:41Missed field goal
16LALA 335232:11Defensive touchdown
17LALA 2614444:38Fumble
18SFSF 16411:04Punt
19LALA 423180:45End of game

6 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Matthew Stafford32/48254017-12.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Darrell Henderson7273.90-2.1
Cam Akers8131.60-1.3
Brandon Powell11111.000.6
Matthew Stafford263.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Cooper Kupp1419122040%-1.4
Tyler Higbee101473029%2.8
Ben Skowronek233306%2.3
Darrell Henderson341208%-0.5
Allen Robinson267013%-3.9
Kendall Blanton11702%0.1
Cam Akers01002%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Bobby Wagner530.000
Aaron Donald310.000
Ernest Jones130.000
Leonard Floyd220.000
Nick Scott300.000
Derion Kendrick210.001
Grant Haley120.001
Justin Hollins120.000
Taylor Rapp120.000
Jordan Fuller110.000

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jimmy Garoppolo16/2723910010.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jeffery Wilson18744.11-1.4
Kyle Juszczyk199.000.4
Jimmy Garoppolo133.000.8
Deebo Samuel221.00-0.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Deebo Samuel67115128%9.3
Brandon Aiyuk4437016%1.8
Kyle Juszczyk113504%2.2
George Kittle2424016%-0.4
Jauan Jennings2422016%0.8
Ray-Ray McCloud136012%-1.2
Ross Dwelley01004%-0.5
Charlie Woerner01004%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Dre Greenlaw1130.000
Fred Warner630.000
Deommodore Lenoir531.000
Emmanuel Moseley500.001
Samson Ebukam312.000
Charvarius Ward400.001
Talanoa Hufanga310.011
Kevin Givens120.001
Nick Bosa302.000
Arik Armstead110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SF -1
Closing total
42
LA moneyline
+112
SF moneyline
-124

49ers closed -1 and covered, winning by 15.

Total closed 42; the game landed 33 — under by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
LA 8 days · SF 8 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Kyle Shanahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.