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2022 Week 4 · Thu, Sep 29, 2022 · Paycor Stadium

Miami Dolphins

15

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

27

CIN -4 ✓U 48.5 ✓

Cincinnati Bengals 27–15. Biggest swing: Q4 3:17, MIA +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CIN ↑MIA ↓
Q4 · 3:17MIA 15 — CIN 20MIA ball · 2nd & 10CIN 64%

(3:17) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep middle intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 24-V.Bell at CIN 9. 24-V.Bell to MIA 45 for 46 yards (85-R.Cracraft).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 3:17MIA +27% win prob(3:17) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep middle intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 24-V.Bell at CIN 9. 24-V.Bell to MIA 45 for 46 yards (85-R.Cracraft).
  2. Q3 · 4:56CIN +18% win prob(4:56) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill to CIN 5 for 64 yards (22-C.Awuzie).
  3. Q2 · 2:58CIN +15% win prob(2:58) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 85-T.Higgins for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q2 · 4:27MIA +14% win prob(4:27) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-J.Gunter), Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:26CIN Touchdown

    (10:26) 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 0 — CIN 7
  2. Q1 · 6:09MIA Field goal

    (6:09) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: MIA 3 — CIN 7
  3. Q2 · 7:36MIA Field goal

    (7:36) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: MIA 6 — CIN 7
  4. Q2 · 2:58CIN Touchdown

    (2:58) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 85-T.Higgins for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 6 — CIN 14
  5. Q2 · 0:15MIA Touchdown

    (:15) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 2-C.Edmonds for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-S.Hubbard].

    Score after this play: MIA 12 — CIN 14
  6. Q3 · 2:43MIA Field goal

    (2:43) 7-J.Sanders 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: MIA 15 — CIN 14
  7. Q4 · 12:03CIN Field goal

    (12:03) 2-E.McPherson 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.

    Score after this play: MIA 15 — CIN 17
  8. Q4 · 6:18CIN Field goal

    (6:18) 2-E.McPherson 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.

    Score after this play: MIA 15 — CIN 20
  9. Q4 · 1:56CIN Touchdown

    (1:56) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 88-H.Hurst for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-45-D.Riley, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 15 — CIN 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricDolphinsBengals
Offensive plays6060
Total yards378 (edge)374
Yards per play6.3 (edge)6.2
Expected points added / play-0.040.11 (edge)
Success rate42%43% (edge)
Dropback rate65%58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.020.46 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.15 (edge)-0.37
Third downs2/108/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps16 (edge)15
Sacks taken11
Turnovers20 (edge)

Dolphins outgained Bengals 378–374 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

20/31, 287 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

13.2 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Teddy BridgewaterQB

14/23, 193 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-0.7 expected points added · +3.2% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Raheem MostertRB

15 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

24 att, 61 yds, 1 TD

-8.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

10/14 for 160 yds, 0 TD

39% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

7/9 for 124 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CINCIN 2511554:41Touchdown +7
2MIAMIA 2510704:14Field goal +3
3CINCIN 258142:29Punt
4MIAMIA 134262:30Interception
5CINCIN 2910475:27Turnover on downs
6MIAMIA 248273:08Field goal +3
7CINCIN 25550:53Punt
8MIAMIA 42492:16Missed field goal
9CINCIN 424581:32Touchdown +7
10MIAMIA 2511652:41Touchdown +6
11CINCIN 25200:09End of half
12MIAMIA 24501:30Punt
13CINCIN 36683:19Punt
14MIAMIA 14482:10Punt
15CINCIN 355201:43Punt
16MIAMIA 107883:38Field goal +3
17CINCIN 2510845:40Field goal +3
18MIAMIA 25582:11Punt
19CINCIN 288383:36Field goal +3
20MIAMIA 229473:08Interception
21CINMIA 456451:13Touchdown +7
22MIAMIA 257300:59Turnover on downs
23CINCIN 45200:53End of game

9 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 88 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Teddy Bridgewater14/23193110-0.7
Tua Tagovailoa8/14110011-0.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Raheem Mostert15694.600.6
Teddy Bridgewater11111.002.2
Chase Edmonds561.20-3.0
Tyreek Hill1-1-1.00-0.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyreek Hill1014160039%3.7
Trent Sherfield4655017%2.4
Jaylen Waddle2539014%0.8
Mike Gesicki2423011%-5.2
Chase Edmonds231418%0.9
Raheem Mostert231208%-0.6
River Cracraft01003%-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Duke Riley240.000
Jerome Baker420.000
Kader Kohou600.001
Christian Wilkins140.000
Eric Rowe320.000
Jevon Holland230.000
Elandon Roberts130.000
Keion Crossen210.000
Raekwon Davis210.000
Xavien Howard110.000

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Burrow20/3128720113.2
Tyler Boyd1/1230003.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Joe Mixon24612.51-8.4
Joe Burrow561.20-0.3
Samaje Perine100.00-0.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tee Higgins79124128%8.5
Ja'Marr Chase4681019%7.2
Tyler Boyd2547016%0.9
Hayden Hurst3427113%4.9
Mitchell Wilcox111803%1.2
Joe Mixon4413013%-0.7
Samaje Perine01003%-1.4
Devin Asiasi01003%-0.4
Chris Evans01003%-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Germaine Pratt530.000
Logan Wilson430.000
Jessie Bates600.001
Sam Hubbard320.000
Chidobe Awuzie400.000
B.J. Hill040.001
Vonn Bell400.022
Mike Hilton310.000
Josh Tupou301.000
Tre Flowers200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CIN -4
Closing total
48.5
MIA moneyline
+169
CIN moneyline
-190

Bengals closed -4 and covered, winning by 12.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 42 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
MIA 4 days · CIN 4 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs Zac Taylor