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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 4 · Thu, Sep 29, 2022 · Paycor Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 4
It turned at Q4 3:17, 2nd and 10, on Vonn Bell — 27.2 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Cincinnati Bengals 27–15. Biggest swing: Q4 3:17, Bengals +27.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:17 · 2nd and 10
Vonn Bell
Bengals
(3:17) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep middle intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 24-V.Bell at CIN 9. 24-V.Bell to MIA 45 for 46 yards (85-R.Cracraft).
27.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Bengals won this one — 8 of 15 on third down, against Dolphins at 2 of 10 on third down.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bengals won this one — no giveaways, against Dolphins at 2 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.46 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at +0.02 expected points per dropback.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — -0.15 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.37 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
(3:17) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep middle intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 24-V.Bell at CIN 9. 24-V.Bell to MIA 45 for 46 yards (85-R.Cracraft).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Evan McPherson's 19-yard field goal with 12:03 left in the 4th put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Chase Edmonds7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Teddy Bridgewater · kick no good, hit right upright+612–14
Evan McPherson19-yd field goal19-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.AdomitisLead never changed again+315–179 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Dolphinscategory by categoryBengals
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Bengals, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 60 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Bengals’s 60 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 3, Bengals 4.
Dolphins outgained Bengals 378-374 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CIN's blitz rate sent, 5.1%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 2.0 points clear of the next team along.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 29 pts
Over Expected room →Dolphins-4.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · −6.9 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 60 snaps
Bengals5.0 ptsright on their number · −3.0 vs their 8.0 pts, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 34% to 86%
Tendencies room →Dolphins59.2%right on their number · +1.5 vs their 57.7%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 49 early downs
Bengals54.5%inside their normal wobble · −7.3 vs their 61.9%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 67%
Tendencies room →Dolphins28.2%right on their number · −3.8 vs their 32.0%, and they swing ±13.7 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Bengals25.7%leaned — faked the run · +13.0 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+1.76× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26% to 89%
Fourth Down room →Dolphins16.7%inside their normal wobble · −15.2 vs their 31.9%, and they swing ±22.5 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Bengals33.3%inside their normal wobble · +10.0 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±17.5 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 69%
Tendencies room →Dolphins8.6%leaned — sat back · −23.1 vs their 31.7%, and they swing ±14.5 week to week (−1.60× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Bengals5.1%leaned — sat back · −15.5 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−1.46× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 32%
Tendencies room →Dolphins8.6%inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Bengals23.1%leaned — got home · +6.3 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+1.06× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
CIN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 25.7%, 13.0 points above their season mean of 12.7% and 1.8 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Who moved the needle
Passing · CIN
20/31, 287 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
13.2 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
14/23, 193 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-0.7 expected points added · +3.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Tee Higgins banked 9.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek HillWR · Alpha Receiver | 25.9 | −3.1 | 94% | 95% | 39% | 45% | 1 car, -1 yd · 10/14, 160 yd |
| Tee HigginsWR · Alpha Receiver | 25.4 | +9.9 | 77% | 83% | 28% | 30% | 7/9, 124 yd, 1 TD |
| Joe BurrowQB · Starter QB | 20.1 | +2.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/31, 287 yd, 2 TD · 5 car, 6 yd |
| Joe MixonRB · Bell Cow Back | 17.4 | −9.0 | 83% | 71% | 13% | 0% | 24 car, 61 yd, 1 TD · 4/4, 13 yd |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Featured Receiver | 12.1 | +0.8 | 94% | 97% | 19% | 34% | 4/6, 81 yd |
| Hayden HurstTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.7 | +2.1 | 56% | 77% | 13% | 2% | 3/4, 27 yd, 1 TD |
| Teddy BridgewaterQB · Starter QB | 10.8 | −0.5 | 61% | — | 0% | — | 14/23, 193 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 11 yd |
| Raheem MostertRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.1 | −3.9 | 72% | 72% | 8% | 1% | 15 car, 69 yd · 2/3, 12 yd |
| Chase EdmondsRB | 10.0 | +1.0 | 28% | 28% | 8% | 2% | 5 car, 6 yd · 2/3, 14 yd, 1 TD |
| Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.5 | +0.1 | 63% | 74% | 17% | 24% | 4/6, 55 yd |
| Tyler BoydWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.6 | −2.8 | 72% | 83% | 16% | 20% | 1/1, 23 yd · 2/5, 47 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | −2.1 | 86% | 85% | 14% | 14% | 2/5, 39 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | −2.0 | 44% | 64% | 11% | 10% | 2/4, 23 yd |
| Mitchell WilcoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | +1.4 | 50% | 29% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 18 yd |
| Tua TagovailoaQB | 2.4 | −5.3 | 39% | — | 0% | — | 8/14, 110 yd, 1 INT |
| Samaje PerineRB | 0.0 | −1.5 | 19% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 0 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Chris EvansRB | 0.0 | −1.8 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Devin AsiasiTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.9 | 25% | 17% | 3% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Trent TaylorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 63% | 46% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| River CracraftWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 16% | 21% | 3% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:17) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep middle intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 24-V.Bell at CIN 9. 24-V.Bell to MIA 45 for 46 yards (85-R.Cracraft).
Q4 3:17 · Dolphins · 2nd & 10 at CIN 26 · gained nothing · -6.04 EP · −26.3% win probability
160 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 173 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, manual charting on 145. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 88 yards from the MIA 10 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Dolphins0
Bengals6Dolphins0Bengals7Dolphins3Bengals7Dolphins6Bengals7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Dolphins6Bengals13Dolphins6Bengals14Dolphins12Bengals14How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Dolphins15Bengals14How the play was built
A trick play, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
How the play was built
A run-pass option, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Dolphins15Bengals17Dolphins15Bengals20How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Dolphins15Bengals26Dolphins15Bengals27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Dolphins at Bengals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 14/23 | 193 | 1 | 1 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 8/14 | 110 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 15 | 69 | 4.6 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 10 | 14 | 160 | 0 | 39% | +3.7 |
| Trent Sherfield | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Riley | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerome Baker | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kader Kohou |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 20/31 | 287 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +13.2 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1/1 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_04_MIA_CIN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bengals closed -4 and covered, winning by 12.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 42 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
| Chase Edmonds | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| +2.4 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 2 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 14% | +0.8 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 11% | −5.2 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 8% | +0.9 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 8% | −0.6 |
| River Cracraft | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.0 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Christian Wilkins | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Rowe | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jevon Holland | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elandon Roberts | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keion Crossen | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Raekwon Davis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavien Howard | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| +3.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 24 | 61 | 2.5 | 1 | −8.4 |
| Joe Burrow | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 7 | 9 | 124 | 1 | 28% | +8.5 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 4 | 6 | 81 | 0 | 19% | +7.2 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 16% | +0.9 |
| Hayden Hurst | 3 | 4 | 27 | 1 | 13% | +4.9 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 3% | +1.2 |
| Joe Mixon | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 13% | −0.7 |
| Samaje Perine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.4 |
| Devin Asiasi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Chris Evans | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germaine Pratt | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Wilson | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jessie Bates | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sam Hubbard | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chidobe Awuzie | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| B.J. Hill | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Vonn Bell | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Mike Hilton | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Tupou | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Flowers | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
