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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 2, 2022 · Tottenham Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 4
It turned at Q4 4:27, 3rd and 8, on Kirk Cousins — 24.9 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:27 · 3rd and 8
Kirk Cousins
Vikings
(4:27) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 19-A.Thielen. PENALTY on NO-23-M.Lattimore, Defensive Pass Interference, 41 yards, enforced at NO 44 - No Play. Penalty on NO-29-P.Adebo, Defensive Holding, declined.
Minnesota Vikings 28–25 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:27, Vikings +24.9% win probability on one snap.
24.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 60% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Vikings at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Saints owned this one and still lost it — +0.10 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.12 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Saints owned this one and still lost it — +0.18 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.02 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 13.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(4:27) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 19-A.Thielen. PENALTY on NO-23-M.Lattimore, Defensive Pass Interference, 41 yards, enforced at NO 44 - No Play. Penalty on NO-29-P.Adebo, Defensive Holding, decli
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Greg Joseph's 47-yard field goal with 0:29 left in the 4th put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Greg Joseph47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaolaLead never changed again+328–2511 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Vikingscategory by categorySaints
Saints ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 67 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Saints’s 58 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 5, Saints 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's play-action rate turned over: 7.1% in week 3 against 20.0% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Vikings-1.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.9 vs their 2.5 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 67 snaps
Saints-11.2 ptsright on their number · −4.4 vs their -6.8 pts, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 11% to 89%
Tendencies room →Vikings55.8%right on their number · −4.2 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 52 early downs
Saints45.7%right on their number · −4.4 vs their 50.1%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 56%
Tendencies room →Vikings35.7%inside their normal wobble · +7.3 vs their 28.4%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Saints20.0%leaned — faked the run · +6.5 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.04× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 108%
Fourth Down room →Vikings—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 36.9%.
Saints33.3%leaned — went for it · +19.1 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (+1.34× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16% to 52%
Tendencies room →Vikings13.3%inside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Saints7.1%inside their normal wobble · −11.1 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 26%
Tendencies room →Vikings9.7%right on their number · −2.2 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Saints16.7%inside their normal wobble · +3.8 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.77× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NO's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 33.3%, 19.1 points above their season mean of 14.2% and 1.3 times their own 14.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIN
25/38, 273 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-1.5 expected points added · +5.7% completion over expected
Passing · NO
20/28, 236 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
7.6 expected points added · +8.3% completion over expected
Receiving · MIN
10/13 for 147 yds, 0 TD
37% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Justin Jefferson banked 5.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin JeffersonWR · Alpha Receiver | 31.0 | +5.8 | 94% | 93% | 37% | 43% | 1 car, 3 yd, 1 TD · 10/13, 147 yd |
| Chris OlaveWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.7 | +3.9 | 68% | 77% | 25% | 44% | 4/7, 67 yd, 1 TD |
| Adam ThielenWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.2 | +0.4 | 97% | 95% | 26% | 23% | 8/9, 72 yd |
| Andy DaltonQB · Starter QB | 13.7 | −2.2 | 95% | — | 0% | — | 20/28, 236 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 3 yd |
| Latavius MurrayRB · Committee Back | 13.5 | +3.6 | 43% | 42% | 4% | 0% | 11 car, 57 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 12.9 | −2.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/38, 273 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT |
| Dalvin CookRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.6 | −3.3 | 63% | 55% | 6% | 0% | 20 car, 76 yd · 2/2, 10 yd |
| Alexander MattisonRB | 8.8 | +4.9 | 38% | 43% | 3% | 0% | 3 car, 3 yd · 1/1, 15 yd, 1 TD |
| Marquez CallawayWR · Featured Receiver | 8.3 | −1.4 | 97% | 97% | 21% | 29% | 3/6, 53 yd |
| Taysom HillQB | 8.1 | +3.2 | 20% | — | 0% | — | 5 car, 21 yd, 1 TD |
| Mark IngramRB · Committee Back | 7.3 | −2.2 | 48% | 55% | 11% | 0% | 10 car, 30 yd · 3/3, 13 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | +1.9 | 65% | 48% | 11% | 5% | 3/3, 37 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | −1.1 | 48% | 61% | 14% | 14% | 3/4, 33 yd |
| Irv SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | −0.6 | 64% | 69% | 11% | 9% | 3/4, 23 yd |
| Jarvis LandryWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | +0.8 | 63% | 71% | 7% | 2% | 2/2, 7 yd |
| Tre'Quan SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −0.4 | 23% | 23% | 7% | 7% | 1/2, 18 yd |
| Jalen NailorWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +0.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| K.J. OsbornWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.7 | 85% | 83% | 6% | 4% | 1 car, -1 yd · 1/2, 6 yd |
| C.J. HamRB | 0.0 | −1.9 | 13% | 14% | 3% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kene NwangwuRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Johnny MundtTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | 28% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jalen ReagorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| J.P. HoltzTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 18% | 3% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Deonte HartyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:27) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 19-A.Thielen. PENALTY on NO-23-M.Lattimore, Defensive Pass Interference, 41 yards, enforced at NO 44 - No Play. Penalty on NO-29-P.Adebo, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q4 4:27 · Vikings · 3rd & 8 at NO 44 · gained nothing · +4.30 EP · +25.2% win probability
168 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 181 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps, manual charting on 151. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 78 yards from the NO 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Vikings6
Saints0Vikings7Saints0How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Vikings7Saints6Vikings7Saints7Vikings10Saints7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Vikings13Saints7Vikings16Saints7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Vikings16Saints13Vikings16Saints14How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a trick play, a man in motion.
Eight in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Vikings19Saints14How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Vikings19Saints20Vikings19Saints22Vikings25Saints22How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Vikings25Saints25How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Vikings28Saints25Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Vikings at Saints, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 25/38 | 273 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −1.5 |
| Ryan Wright | 1/1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 20 | 76 | 3.8 | 0 | −3.4 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 | +1.0 |
| Alexander Mattison |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 10 | 13 | 147 | 0 | 37% | +4.9 |
| Adam Thielen | 8 | 9 | 72 | 0 | 26% | +3.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Kendricks | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Smith | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Hicks | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chandon Sullivan |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 20/28 | 236 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +7.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_04_MIN_NO
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -4, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 42; the game landed 53 — over by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| −1.2 |
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Irv Smith | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 11% | −0.9 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 3% | +3.8 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +3.4 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | +0.8 |
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | +0.3 |
| Johnny Mundt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.8 |
| Jalen Reagor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| C.J. Ham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dalvin Tomlinson | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Dantzler | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| D.J. Wonnum | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danielle Hunter | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Peterson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 |
| 57 |
| 5.2 |
| 1 |
| +2.9 |
| Mark Ingram | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Taysom Hill | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 1 | +1.0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 4 | 7 | 67 | 1 | 25% | +4.9 |
| Marquez Callaway | 3 | 6 | 53 | 0 | 21% | +4.0 |
| Adam Trautman | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 11% | +2.5 |
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 14% | +1.4 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 7% | +1.7 |
| Mark Ingram | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 11% | −1.4 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.5 |
| Jarvis Landry | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | +0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshon Lattimore | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Werner | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paulson Adebo | 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Demario Davis | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Cameron Jordan | 3 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| J.T. Gray | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentavius Street | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shy Tuttle | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Roby | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
