2022 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 2, 2022 · Tottenham Stadium

Minnesota VikingsWinner

New Orleans Saints

MIN -4 no coverO 42 ✓Vikings closed -4, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Minnesota Vikings 28–25 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:27, NO +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 4:27MIN 19 — NO 22MIN ball · 3rd & 8NO 56%

(4:27) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 19-A.Thielen. PENALTY on NO-23-M.Lattimore, Defensive Pass Interference, 41 yards, enforced at NO 44 - No Play. Penalty on NO-29-P.Adebo, Defensive Holding, decli

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 4:27NO +25% win prob(4:27) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 19-A.Thielen. PENALTY on NO-23-M.Lattimore, Defensive Pass Interference, 41 yards, enforced at NO 44 - No Play. Penalty on NO-29-P.Adebo, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q4 · 1:38NO +17% win prob(1:38) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson to NO 29 for 39 yards (23-M.Lattimore).
Q2 · 1:04MIN +14% win prob(1:04) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at NO 19 for -6 yards (94-D.Tomlinson). FUMBLES (94-D.Tomlinson) [94-D.Tomlinson], RECOVERED by MIN-97-H.Phillips at NO 20.
Q4 · 1:56NO +13% win prob(1:56) 3-W.Lutz 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:19MIN Touchdown
(8:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 2-A.Mattison for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 7 — NO 0
Q2 · 9:03NO Touchdown
(9:03) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 12-C.Olave for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 7 — NO 7
Q2 · 1:07MIN Field goal
(1:07) 1-G.Joseph 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 10 — NO 7
Q2 · 0:03MIN Field goal
(:03) 1-G.Joseph 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 13 — NO 7
Q3 · 9:26MIN Field goal
(9:26) 1-G.Joseph 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 16 — NO 7
Q3 · 3:52NO Touchdown
(3:52) 28-L.Murray left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 16 — NO 14
Q4 · 14:19MIN Field goal
(14:19) 1-G.Joseph 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 19 — NO 14
Q4 · 9:32NO Touchdown
(9:32) (Shotgun) 66-L.Kidd and 67-L.Young reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: MIN 19 — NO 22
Q4 · 4:20MIN Touchdown
(4:20) 18-J.Jefferson left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: MIN 25 — NO 22
Q4 · 1:56NO Field goal
(1:56) 3-W.Lutz 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: MIN 25 — NO 25
Q4 · 0:29MIN Field goal
(:29) 1-G.Joseph 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 28 — NO 25

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Saints
Offensive plays	67	58
Total yards	344 (edge)	340
Yards per play	5.1	5.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.02	0.18 (edge)
Success rate	42%	60% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05	0.24 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12	0.10 (edge)
Third downs	5/14	4/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

25/38, 273 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-1.5 expected points added · +5.7% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Andy DaltonQB

20/28, 236 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

7.6 expected points added · +8.3% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

20 att, 76 yds, 0 TD

-3.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Latavius MurrayRB

11 att, 57 yds, 1 TD

2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

10/13 for 147 yds, 0 TD

37% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Adam ThielenWR

8/9 for 72 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 25	15	74	6:48	Touchdown +7
2	NO	NO 25	5	16	2:37	Punt
3	MIN	MIN 22	7	33	3:08	Punt
4	NO	NO 12	4	3	1:33	Punt
5	MIN	MIN 45	2	2	0:44	Interception
6	NO	NO 40	13	60	6:13	Touchdown +7
7	MIN	MIN 25	7	18	3:06	Punt
8	NO	NO 6	4	8	2:09	Punt
9	MIN	MIN 44	9	46	2:38	Field goal +3
10	NO	NO 25	2	-5	0:08	Fumble
11	MIN	NO 20	4	7	0:56	Field goal +3
12	NO	NO 20	6	23	2:00	Punt
13	MIN	MIN 15	4	1	1:06	Punt
14	MIN	NO 44	5	43	2:31	Field goal +3
15	NO	NO 22	14	83	5:34	Touchdown +7
16	MIN	MIN 45	10	43	4:35	Field goal +3
17	NO	NO 25	11	77	4:45	Touchdown +8
18	MIN	MIN 25	12	24	5:14	Touchdown +6
19	NO	NO 25	9	43	2:24	Field goal +3
20	MIN	MIN 18	7	53	1:27	Field goal +3
21	NO	NO 25	5	32	0:24	Missed field goal

11 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 83 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	25/38	273	1	1	3	-1.5
Ryan Wright	1/1	13	0	0	0	3.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dalvin Cook	20	76	3.8	0	-3.4
Justin Jefferson	1	3	3.0	1	1.0
Alexander Mattison	3	3	1.0	0	-1.2
K.J. Osborn	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	10	13	147	0	37%	4.9
Adam Thielen	8	9	72	0	26%	3.2
Irv Smith	3	4	23	0	11%	-0.9
Alexander Mattison	1	1	15	1	3%	3.8
Jalen Nailor	1	1	13	0	3%	3.4
Dalvin Cook	2	2	10	0	6%	0.8
K.J. Osborn	1	2	6	0	6%	0.3
Johnny Mundt	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.8
Jalen Reagor	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9
C.J. Ham	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Eric Kendricks	3	5	0.0	0
Harrison Smith	3	3	0.0	0
Jordan Hicks	3	3	0.0	0
Chandon Sullivan	3	2	0.0	0
Camryn Bynum	3	2	0.0	0
Dalvin Tomlinson	1	3	1.0	0
Cameron Dantzler	4	0	0.0	3
D.J. Wonnum	2	2	0.0	0
Danielle Hunter	3	1	0.0	0
Patrick Peterson	2	1	0.0	2

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	20/28	236	1	0	2	7.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Latavius Murray	11	57	5.2	1	2.9
Mark Ingram	10	30	3.0	0	-1.5
Taysom Hill	5	21	4.2	1	1.0
Andy Dalton	1	3	3.0	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Olave	4	7	67	1	25%	4.9
Marquez Callaway	3	6	53	0	21%	4.0
Adam Trautman	3	3	37	0	11%	2.5
Juwan Johnson	3	4	33	0	14%	1.4
Tre'Quan Smith	1	2	18	0	7%	1.7
Mark Ingram	3	3	13	0	11%	-1.4
Latavius Murray	1	1	8	0	4%	0.5
Jarvis Landry	2	2	7	0	7%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Marshon Lattimore	7	3	0.0	0	0
Pete Werner	7	1	0.0	0	0
Paulson Adebo	8	0	0.0	0	1
Demario Davis	5	3	1.0	0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	4	3	0.0	1	1
Cameron Jordan	3	3	0.5	0	0
J.T. Gray	2	1	0.0	0	0
Kentavius Street	1	1	1.0	0	0
Shy Tuttle	1	1	0.0	0	0
Bradley Roby	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -4
Closing total: 42
MIN moneyline: -199
NO moneyline: +177

Vikings closed -4, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 42; the game landed 53 — over by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Tottenham Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: MIN 7 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Kevin O'Connell vs Dennis Allen