2022 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 2, 2022 · Lambeau Field
New England Patriots
24
Green Bay PackersWinner
27
Green Bay Packers 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 6:54, GB +28% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(6:54) 7-J.Bailey punts 36 yards to GB 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.
Highest-leverage plays
- OT · 6:54GB +28% win prob(6:54) 7-J.Bailey punts 36 yards to GB 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.
- Q2 · 0:22NE +20% win prob(:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 13-A.Lazard INTERCEPTED by 13-Ja.Jones at GB 40. 13-Ja.Jones for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- OT · 7:00NE +17% win prob(7:00) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete short right to 85-H.Henry.
- Q3 · 4:59GB +17% win prob(4:59) 4-B.Zappe pass short right to 1-D.Parker for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 9:49NE Field goal
(9:49) 6-N.Folk 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: NE 3 — GB 0 - Q2 · 13:05GB Touchdown
(13:05) 9-C.Watson right end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 3 — GB 7 - Q2 · 0:22NE Touchdown
(:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 13-A.Lazard INTERCEPTED by 13-Ja.Jones at GB 40. 13-Ja.Jones for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 10 — GB 7 - Q3 · 9:24GB Touchdown
(9:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 85-R.Tonyan for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 10 — GB 14 - Q3 · 4:59NE Touchdown
(4:59) 4-B.Zappe pass short right to 1-D.Parker for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 17 — GB 14 - Q3 · 0:09GB Field goal
(:09) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Score after this play: NE 17 — GB 17 - Q4 · 11:19NE Touchdown
(11:19) 61-M.Cannon reported in as eligible. 37-D.Harris left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 24 — GB 17 - Q4 · 6:17GB Touchdown
(6:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-R.Doubs for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 24 — GB 24 - OT · 0:04GB Field goal
(:04) 2-M.Crosby 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Score after this play: NE 24 — GB 27
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Patriots | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 58 | 71 |
| Total yards | 271 | 443 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.7 | 6.2 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.02 (edge) | 0.01 |
| Success rate | 53% (edge) | 46% |
| Dropback rate | 43% | 52% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.28 | -0.13 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.25 (edge) | 0.17 |
| Third downs | 3/11 | 6/14 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 7 | 12 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 16 | 22 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 2 |
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · GB
21/35, 251 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
0.4 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected
Passing · NE
10/15, 99 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-4.8 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | NE 25 | 11 | 56 | 5:15 | Field goal +3 | |
| 2 | GB | GB 25 | 3 | 25 | 0:53 | Fumble | |
| 3 | NE | GB 49 | 7 | 4 | 3:52 | Punt | |
| 4 | GB | GB 20 | 6 | 19 | 2:35 | Punt | |
| 5 | NE | NE 8 | 4 | 6 | 1:22 | Punt | |
| 6 | GB | 50 | 7 | 50 | 3:03 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 7 | NE | NE 27 | 8 | 11 | 3:08 | Punt | |
| 8 | GB | GB 20 | 4 | 2 | 1:00 | Punt | |
| 9 | NE | NE 25 | 6 | 29 | 3:06 | Punt | |
| 10 | GB | GB 9 | 6 | 22 | 2:24 | Punt | |
| 11 | NE | 50 | 6 | 19 | 2:28 | Fumble | |
| 12 | GB | GB 31 | 3 | 1 | 0:41 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 13 | GB | GB 35 | 2 | 6 | 0:13 | End of half | |
| 14 | GB | GB 19 | 12 | 91 | 5:40 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 15 | NE | NE 25 | 9 | 65 | 4:28 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 16 | GB | GB 21 | 9 | 59 | 4:47 | Field goal +3 | |
| 17 | NE | NE 34 | 9 | 66 | 3:51 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 18 | GB | GB 25 | 11 | 75 | 5:00 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 19 | NE | NE 25 | 5 | 1 | 2:24 | Punt | |
| 20 | GB | GB 43 | 6 | 6 | 1:58 | Punt | |
| 21 | NE | NE 2 | 4 | 9 | 1:48 | Punt | |
| 22 | GB | GB 42 | 1 | 7 | 0:04 | Turnover on downs | |
| 23 | GB | GB 25 | 5 | 3 | 1:44 | Punt | |
| 24 | NE | NE 49 | 4 | 5 | 1:29 | Punt | |
| 25 | GB | GB 10 | 12 | 77 | 6:47 | Field goal +3 |
8 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 91 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
New England Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Zappe | 10/15 | 99 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4.8 |
| Brian Hoyer | 5/6 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2.1 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 18 | 86 | 4.8 | 1 | 3.3 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 14 | 66 | 4.7 | 0 | 3.7 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | 1.2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 | 20% | 1.4 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 | 10% | 2.2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 25% | -0.5 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 15% | 1.2 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 20% | -2.6 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 5% | 0.8 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 5% | -1.0 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 2 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Jones | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Adrian Phillips | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Judon | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Jones | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Myles Bryant | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin McCourty | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Barmore | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Green Bay Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/35 | 251 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.4 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 16 | 110 | 6.9 | 0 | 5.1 |
| A.J. Dillon | 17 | 73 | 4.3 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 1 | 2.0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -0.2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 6 | 8 | 116 | 0 | 25% | 0.8 |
| Romeo Doubs | 5 | 8 | 47 | 1 | 25% | -3.1 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 13% | 3.0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 | 6% | 3.1 |
| A.J. Dillon | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 6% | 0.0 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 9% | -0.8 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 13% | -2.8 |
| Josiah Deguara | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.3 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudy Ford | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashan Gary | 4 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quay Walker | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarran Reed | 3 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| De'Vondre Campbell | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Lowry | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Clark | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Stokes | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Savage | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- GB -10
- Closing total
- 40.5
- NE moneyline
- +358
- GB moneyline
- -435
Packers closed -10, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 51 — over by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Lambeau Field
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- —
- Referee
- Adrian Hill
- Rest
- NE 7 days · GB 7 days
- Coaches
- Bill Belichick vs Matt LaFleur