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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 2, 2022 · Lambeau Field
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 4
It turned at OT 6:54, 4th and 5 — 28.2 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Green Bay Packers 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 6:54, Patriots +28.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · OT 6:54 · 4th and 5
Unnamed on the sheet
Patriots
(6:54) 7-J.Bailey punts 36 yards to GB 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.
28.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Patriots at 7 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 6 of 14 on third down, against Patriots at 3 of 11 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Packers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Patriots at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Packers at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 14.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(6:54) 7-J.Bailey punts 36 yards to GB 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Mason Crosby's 31-yard field goal with 0:04 left in overtime put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Mason Crosby31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap J.CocoLead never changed again+324–279 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryPackers
Packers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 58 snaps at a 43% dropback rate against Packers’s 71 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 3, Packers 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's pass rate over expected, −15.8 pts, sat 14.5 points below their season number of −1.3 pts — they ran more than the situation asked by 2.1 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points. · −2.1σ from their own normal
NE's early-down pass rate turned over: 57.7% in week 3 against 38.3% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
NE's blitz rate sent turned over: 41.2% in week 3 against 13.5% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.6 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots-15.8 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −14.5 vs their -1.3 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−2.14× that swing) · 58 snaps
Packers-9.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 71 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 84%
Tendencies room →Patriots38.3%leaned — ran early · −18.0 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−1.87× that swing) · 47 early downs
Packers46.4%inside their normal wobble · −6.5 vs their 53.0%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 56 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 55%
Tendencies room →Patriots36.0%leaned — faked the run · +18.0 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+1.69× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Packers16.2%inside their normal wobble · −10.6 vs their 26.8%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Patriots0.0%inside their normal wobble · −21.7 vs their 21.7%, and they swing ±27.0 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Packers33.3%right on their number · −11.0 vs their 44.3%, and they swing ±24.4 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 59%
Tendencies room →Patriots13.5%leaned — sat back · −12.7 vs their 26.3%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Packers40.0%leaned — sent pressure · +17.2 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (+1.43× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 37%
Tendencies room →Patriots8.1%inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Packers20.0%right on their number · +3.3 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
NE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -15.8 pts, 14.5 points below their season mean of -1.3 pts and 2.1 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · GB
21/35, 251 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
0.4 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected
Passing · NE
10/15, 99 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-4.8 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
DeVante Parker banked 7.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen LazardWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.6 | +5.4 | 96% | 97% | 25% | 37% | 6/8, 116 yd |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 16.1 | +2.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/35, 251 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 1 yd |
| Damien HarrisRB · Committee Back | 15.4 | +5.1 | 45% | 28% | 5% | 0% | 18 car, 86 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, -2 yd |
| Aaron JonesRB · Committee Back | 14.5 | +0.1 | 62% | 59% | 13% | 0% | 16 car, 110 yd · 3/4, 5 yd |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.7 | +0.9 | 96% | 95% | 25% | 31% | 5/8, 47 yd, 1 TD |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 12.9 | −0.2 | 55% | 72% | 25% | 0% | 14 car, 66 yd · 4/5, 23 yd |
| DeVante ParkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.4 | +7.3 | 97% | 100% | 10% | 12% | 2/2, 24 yd, 1 TD |
| Robert TonyanTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.2 | +5.5 | 44% | 59% | 6% | 6% | 2/2, 22 yd, 1 TD |
| A.J. DillonRB · Committee Back | 9.4 | −2.3 | 58% | 57% | 6% | 1% | 17 car, 73 yd · 1/2, 11 yd |
| Christian WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.3 | +3.5 | 25% | 19% | 9% | 9% | 1 car, 15 yd, 1 TD · 1/3, 8 yd |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Featured Receiver | 7.6 | +1.2 | 66% | 92% | 20% | 47% | 3/4, 46 yd |
| Randall CobbWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | +1.1 | 34% | 49% | 13% | 21% | 3/4, 42 yd |
| Bailey ZappeQB · Starter QB | 6.0 | +1.7 | 74% | — | 0% | — | 10/15, 99 yd, 1 TD |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | +0.7 | 45% | 64% | 15% | 20% | 1 car, 15 yd · 2/3, 23 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Featured Receiver | 3.3 | −2.4 | 84% | 76% | 20% | 29% | 2/4, 13 yd |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.6 | 53% | 32% | 5% | 0% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Brian HoyerQB | 1.5 | −0.4 | 26% | — | 0% | — | 5/6, 37 yd |
| Patrick TaylorRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Josiah DeguaraTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.2 | 15% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tyler DavisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 29% | 19% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Amari RodgersWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Matt SlaterWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:54) 7-J.Bailey punts 36 yards to GB 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.
OT 6:54 · Patriots · 4th & 5 at GB 46 · gained nothing · -0.48 EP · +28.2% win probability
166 snaps placed · 18 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 184 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 81 yards from the GB 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots3
Packers0How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Patriots3Packers6Patriots3Packers7How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Patriots9Packers7Patriots10Packers7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Patriots10Packers13Patriots10Packers14How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Patriots16Packers14Patriots17Packers14Patriots17Packers17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Patriots23Packers17Patriots24Packers17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Patriots24Packers23Patriots24Packers24How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, thrown away.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Patriots24Packers27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Packers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Zappe | 10/15 | 99 | 1 | 0 | 3 | −4.8 |
| Brian Hoyer | 5/6 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −2.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 18 | 86 | 4.8 | 1 | +3.3 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 14 | 66 | 4.7 | 0 | +3.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 | 20% | +1.4 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 2 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Jones |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/35 | 251 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_04_NE_GB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -10, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 51 — over by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | +1.2 |
| 10% |
| +2.2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 25% | −0.5 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 15% | +1.2 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 20% | −2.6 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 5% | +0.8 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 5% | −1.0 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Adrian Phillips | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Judon | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Jones | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Myles Bryant | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin McCourty | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Barmore | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 16 | 110 | 6.9 | 0 | +5.1 |
| A.J. Dillon | 17 | 73 | 4.3 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 1 | +2.0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 6 | 8 | 116 | 0 | 25% | +0.8 |
| Romeo Doubs | 5 | 8 | 47 | 1 | 25% | −3.1 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 13% | +3.0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 | 6% | +3.1 |
| A.J. Dillon | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 6% | +0.0 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 9% | −0.8 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 13% | −2.8 |
| Josiah Deguara | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudy Ford | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashan Gary | 4 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quay Walker | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarran Reed | 3 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| De'Vondre Campbell | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Lowry | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Clark | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Stokes | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Savage | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
