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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
New England Patriots 24 at Green Bay Packers 27. Final.
Packers -10 no coverO 40.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 4
Green Bay Packers 27, Patriots 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 6:54, 4th and 5 — 28.2 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 6:54 · 4th and 5
Unnamed on the sheet
Patriots
(6:54) 7-J.Bailey punts 36 yards to GB 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.
Packers closed -10, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Green Bay Packers 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 6:54, Patriots +28.2% win probability on one snap.
28.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jack JonesPatriotsQ2 0:22(:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 13-A.Lazard INTERCEPTED by 13-Ja.Jones at GB 40. 13-Ja.Jones for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20.4pts
Bailey ZappePackersOT 7:00(7:00) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete short right to 85-H.Henry.
17.2pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Patriots at 7 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 6 of 14 on third down, against Patriots at 3 of 11 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Packers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Patriots at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Packers at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Patriots168 of 184 plays carry both curves
(6:54) 7-J.Bailey punts 36 yards to GB 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.
Swing −28.2 for PackersExpected points +0.48 for PackersModel and market agree here.play 169
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 6:54GB +28% win prob(6:54) 7-J.Bailey punts 36 yards to GB 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.
2nd · 0:22NE +20% win prob(:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 13-A.Lazard INTERCEPTED by 13-Ja.Jones at GB 40. 13-Ja.Jones for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 7:00NE +17% win prob(7:00) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete short right to 85-H.Henry.
3rd · 4:59GB +17% win prob(4:59) 4-B.Zappe pass short right to 1-D.Parker for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:19GB +16% win prob(11:19) 61-M.Cannon reported in as eligible. 37-D.Harris left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:01NE +15% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson right tackle to NE 11 for 2 yards (90-J.Reed, 97-K.Clark).
Overtime · 6:05
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mason Crosby's 31-yard field goal with 0:04 left in overtime put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:49Nick Folk·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+33–0
Overtime0:04Mason Crosby·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap J.CocoLead never changed again+324–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Patriotscategory by categoryPackers
Patriots2–7Packers
271Total yards443
4.7Yards per play6.2
53%Success rate46%
27%Third-down rate43%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays12
16First downs22
4Sacks taken1
1Turnovers2
The read
Packers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Patriots: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.01Packers: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.28Patriots: −0.28 expected points added per play
−0.13Packers: −0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.25Patriots: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.17Packers: +0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 58 snaps at a 43% dropback rate against Packers’s 71 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 3, Packers 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's pass rate over expected, −15.8 pts, sat 14.5 points below their season number of −1.3 pts — they ran more than the situation asked by 2.1 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 3.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
NE's early-down pass rate turned over: 57.7% in week 3 against 38.3% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points.
NE's blitz rate sent turned over: 41.2% in week 3 against 13.5% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Packers20.0%
right on their number · +3.3 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
NoteNE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -15.8 pts, 14.5 points below their season mean of -1.3 pts and 2.1 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
69Cole StrangeG · Every snap100%58 snaps
71Michael OnwenuG · Every snap100%58 snaps
77Trenton BrownT · Every snap100%58 snaps
60David AndrewsC · Every snap100%58 snaps
1DeVante ParkerWR · Full-time97%56 snaps
85Hunter HenryTE · Full-time84%49 snaps
76Isaiah WynnT · Full-time83%48 snaps
4Bailey ZappeQB · Heavy rotation74%43 snaps
15Nelson AgholorWR · Heavy rotation66%38 snaps
38Rhamondre StevensonRB · Heavy rotation55%32 snaps
83Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Heavy rotation53%31 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
J.Bailey punts+28% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(6:54) 7-J.Bailey punts 36 yards to GB 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.
OT 6:54 · Patriots · 4th & 5 at GB 46 · gained nothing · -0.48 EP · +28.2% win probability
166 snaps placed · 18 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 81 yards from the GB 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
44%
Yards
714
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.1659%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.0558%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.3343%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14-0.3043%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.4015%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.1917%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Patriots3Packers0
Field goal12 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Packers 18
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.1 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 49
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 49 to the Packers 35
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Patriots 39
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 8 to the Patriots 10
The period ended3 plays, from midfield to the Patriots 40
2nd quarter44 plays
Patriots3Packers6
Patriots3Packers7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Patriots 15
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 27 to the Patriots 38
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Packers 22
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Packers 46
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 9 to the Packers 31
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost7 plays, from midfield to the Packers 22
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Patriots9Packers7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Packers 31 to the Packers 32
Patriots10Packers7
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Patriots10Packers13
Patriots10Packers14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Packers 19 to the Patriots 10
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Patriots16Packers14
Patriots17Packers14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Packers 20
Patriots17Packers17
Field goal10 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Patriots 20
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter41 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Patriots23Packers17
Patriots24Packers17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 34 to the Packers 5
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Patriots24Packers23
Patriots24Packers24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Patriots 13
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 29
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 43 to the Patriots 40
The period ended7 plays, from the Patriots 2 to the Patriots 11
The period ended2 plays
Overtime26 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, thrown away.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.5 seconds
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 28
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.7 seconds
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 49 to the Packers 46
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.1 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Patriots24Packers27
Field goal14 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Patriots 13
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -10
Closing total
40.5
Patriots moneyline
+358
Packers moneyline
-435
Packers closed -10, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 51 — over by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 62°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the north-east; overcast.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Patriots 7 days · Packers 7 days
Coaches
Bill Belichick vs Matt LaFleur
GB +15% win prob
(6:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 13-A.Lazard to GB 35 for 22 yards (21-A.Phillips).
4th · 0:04NE +15% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb to GB 49 for 7 yards. FUMBLES, touched at GB 49, recovered by GB-74-E.Jenkins at NE 49. 74-E.Jenkins to NE 49 for no gain (8-J.Bentley).
