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Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 2, 2022 · Acrisure Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 4
It turned at Q4 0:18, 2nd and 2, on Breece Hall — 30.6 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:18 · 2nd and 2
Breece Hall
Jets
(:18) 20-Br.Hall left guard to PIT 1 for 1 yard (39-M.Fitzpatrick). FUMBLES (39-M.Fitzpatrick), recovered by NYJ-83-T.Conklin at PIT 1. 83-T.Conklin to PIT 1 for no gain (39-M.Fitzpatrick). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 20-Br.Hall left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
New York Jets 24–20. Biggest swing: Q4 0:18, Jets +30.6% win probability on one snap.
30.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Jets won this one — 2 giveaways, against Steelers at 4 giveaways.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Jets at 3 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 12 on third down, against Jets at 6 of 15 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Jets won this one — +0.05 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.15 expected points per dropback.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(:18) 20-Br.Hall left guard to PIT 1 for 1 yard (39-M.Fitzpatrick). FUMBLES (39-M.Fitzpatrick), recovered by NYJ-83-T.Conklin at PIT 1. 83-T.Conklin to PIT 1 for no gain (39-M.Fitzpatrick). The Replay Official reviewed t
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Breece Hall's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 0:18 left in the 4th put New York Jets ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jetscategory by categorySteelers
Jets ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 67 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Steelers’s 60 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Jets 4, Steelers 2.
Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's pass rate over expected turned over: +0.0 pts in week 3 against −11.5 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points.
NYJ's blitz rate sent turned over: 23.1% in week 3 against 9.1% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Jets-11.5 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.3 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−1.61× that swing) · 67 snaps
Steelers-8.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 89%
Tendencies room →Jets49.0%inside their normal wobble · −7.6 vs their 56.6%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 51 early downs
Steelers48.9%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 47%
Tendencies room →Jets5.0%leaned — dropped back clean · −13.5 vs their 18.5%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−1.20× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Steelers6.1%leaned — dropped back clean · −7.6 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -54% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Jets—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 30.4%.
Steelers33.3%inside their normal wobble · +15.0 vs their 18.3%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 65%
Tendencies room →Jets9.1%inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Steelers12.5%leaned — sat back · −15.7 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 39%
Tendencies room →Jets21.2%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 19.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Steelers15.0%right on their number · +2.3 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NYJ's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -11.5 pts, 8.3 points below their season mean of -3.1 pts and 1.6 times their own 5.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYJ
18/36, 252 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
1.2 expected points added · -6.8% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
10/13, 120 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT
1.4 expected points added · +20.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Corey Davis banked 7.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach WilsonQB · Starter QB | 18.8 | +1.2 | 100% | — | 3% | 1% | 18/36, 252 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 2 car, 15 yd · 1/1, 2 yd, 1 TD |
| Corey DavisWR · Featured Receiver | 18.4 | +7.3 | 74% | 65% | 18% | 24% | 5/6, 74 yd, 1 TD |
| George PickensWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.2 | +2.1 | 70% | 70% | 32% | 41% | 6/8, 102 yd |
| Breece HallRB · Committee Back | 15.8 | −4.7 | 66% | 63% | 18% | 14% | 17 car, 66 yd, 1 TD · 2/6, 12 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Alpha Receiver | 15.5 | +3.0 | 73% | 76% | 36% | 19% | 7/9, 85 yd |
| Kenny PickettQB · Starter QB | 12.3 | −2.4 | 48% | — | 0% | — | 10/13, 120 yd, 3 INT · 6 car, 15 yd, 2 TD |
| Elijah MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.5 | +0.8 | 90% | 85% | 12% | 16% | 1 car, 2 yd · 3/4, 53 yd |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.2 | +0.6 | 81% | 78% | 15% | 12% | 3/5, 52 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB · Committee Back | 7.4 | −3.4 | 75% | 61% | 0% | — | 18 car, 74 yd |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Featured Receiver | 6.1 | −1.7 | 77% | 83% | 18% | 14% | 2/6, 41 yd |
| Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | +2.0 | 11% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Michael CarterRB | 4.9 | −2.6 | 44% | 40% | 9% | 2% | 9 car, 15 yd · 2/3, 14 yd |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −4.4 | 89% | 85% | 16% | 10% | 2 car, 11 yd · 2/4, 11 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | 3.2 | +0.5 | 25% | 27% | 4% | 1% | 3 car, 18 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Mitchell TrubiskyQB · Starter QB | 1.5 | −5.0 | 52% | — | 0% | — | 7/13, 84 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, 1 yd |
| Zach GentryTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −2.5 | 61% | 39% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| C.J. UzomahTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 44% | 43% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jeff SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Benny SnellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Chase ClaypoolWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.7 | 73% | 76% | 8% | 15% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −0.7 | 14% | — | 0% | — | 1 car, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:18) 20-Br.Hall left guard to PIT 1 for 1 yard (39-M.Fitzpatrick). FUMBLES (39-M.Fitzpatrick), recovered by NYJ-83-T.Conklin at PIT 1. 83-T.Conklin to PIT 1 for no gain (39-M.Fitzpatrick). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 20-Br.Hall left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:18 · Jets · 2nd & goal at PIT 2 · gained 2 · +1.99 EP · +39.5% win probability
163 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 177 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 82 yards from the PIT 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
Jets3
Steelers0Jets9Steelers0Jets10Steelers0Jets10Steelers3Jets10Steelers6How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Jets10Steelers12Jets10Steelers13Jets10Steelers19Jets10Steelers20How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Jets16Steelers20Jets17Steelers20How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Jets23Steelers20Jets24Steelers20How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jets at Steelers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 18/36 | 252 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1.2 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1/1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 17 | 66 | 3.9 | 1 | +3.1 |
| Zach Wilson | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Michael Carter |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 5 | 6 | 74 | 1 | 18% | +10.6 |
| Elijah Moore | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 | 12% | +4.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Mosley | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marcell Harris | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lamarcus Joyner | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 2 | 4 |
| Kwon Alexander |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 10/13 | 120 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 7/13 | 84 | 0 | 1 | 3 | −6.6 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_04_NYJ_PIT
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Steelers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41; the game landed 44 — over by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
| 9 |
| 15 |
| 1.7 |
| 0 |
| −2.3 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Tyler Conklin | 3 | 5 | 52 | 0 | 15% | −1.2 |
| Garrett Wilson | 2 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 18% | −0.8 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 9% | −1.3 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 18% | −3.6 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Zach Wilson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3% | +1.2 |
| Jeff Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −2.7 |
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| John Franklin-Myers | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinnen Williams | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sheldon Rankins | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jermaine Johnson | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Reed | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 18 | 74 | 4.1 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Kenny Pickett | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 2 | +4.0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 6 | 8 | 102 | 0 | 32% | +5.6 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 7 | 9 | 85 | 0 | 36% | +3.1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 16% | −4.5 |
| Jaylen Warren | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Zach Gentry | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.1 |
| Chase Claypool | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −3.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Jack | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Arthur Maulet | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tre Norwood | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Bush | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Highsmith | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Wallace | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Ogunjobi | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Wormley | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
