2022 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 2, 2022 · Acrisure Stadium

New York JetsWinner

Pittsburgh Steelers

PIT -3 upsetO 41 ✓Steelers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Jets 24–20. Biggest swing: Q4 0:18, PIT +31% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:18NYJ 23 — PIT 20NYJ ball · 2nd & 2NYJ 60%

(:18) 20-Br.Hall left guard to PIT 1 for 1 yard (39-M.Fitzpatrick). FUMBLES (39-M.Fitzpatrick), recovered by NYJ-83-T.Conklin at PIT 1. 83-T.Conklin to PIT 1 for no gain (39-M.Fitzpatrick). The Replay Official reviewed t

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:18PIT +31% win prob(:18) 20-Br.Hall left guard to PIT 1 for 1 yard (39-M.Fitzpatrick). FUMBLES (39-M.Fitzpatrick), recovered by NYJ-83-T.Conklin at PIT 1. 83-T.Conklin to PIT 1 for no gain (39-M.Fitzpatrick). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 20-Br.Hall left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 8:53NYJ +21% win prob(8:53) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right intended for 83-T.Conklin INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick at NYJ 38. 39-M.Fitzpatrick for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYJ-17-G.Wilson, Offensive Pass Interference, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right intended for 83-T.Conklin INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick at NYJ 38. 39-M.Fitzpatrick ran ob at NYJ 4 for 34 yards (20-Br.Hall). Penalty on NYJ-17-G.Wilson, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q4 · 3:42NYJ +14% win prob(3:42) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short right intended for 88-P.Freiermuth INTERCEPTED by 30-M.Carter [54-J.Martin] at NYJ 35. 30-M.Carter to NYJ 35 for no gain (88-P.Freiermuth).
Q4 · 1:31PIT +14% win prob(1:31) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep right to 84-C.Davis to PIT 20 for 17 yards (55-D.Bush).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 4:06NYJ Field goal
(4:06) 6-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
Score after this play: NYJ 3 — PIT 0
Q2 · 12:42NYJ Touchdown
(12:42) (Shotgun) 10-B.Berrios pass short right to 2-Z.Wilson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 10 — PIT 0
Q2 · 8:34PIT Field goal
(8:34) 9-C.Boswell 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: NYJ 10 — PIT 3
Q2 · 0:00PIT Field goal
(:00) 9-C.Boswell 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: NYJ 10 — PIT 6
Q3 · 7:22PIT Touchdown
(7:22) 8-K.Pickett right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 10 — PIT 13
Q4 · 13:41PIT Touchdown
(13:41) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett scrambles right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 10 — PIT 20
Q4 · 7:35NYJ Touchdown
(7:35) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 84-C.Davis for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 17 — PIT 20
Q4 · 0:18NYJ Touchdown
(:18) 20-Br.Hall left guard to PIT 1 for 1 yard (39-M.Fitzpatrick). FUMBLES (39-M.Fitzpatrick), recovered by NYJ-83-T.Conklin at PIT 1. 83-T.Conklin to PIT 1 for no gain (39-M.Fitzpatrick). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 20-Br.Hall left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 24 — PIT 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Steelers
Offensive plays	67	60
Total yards	348 (edge)	297
Yards per play	5.2 (edge)	5.0
Expected points added / play	0.04 (edge)	-0.08
Success rate	39%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	-0.15
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02 (edge)	0.00
Third downs	6/15	6/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	7
First downs gained on snaps	17	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2 (edge)	4

Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Zach WilsonQB

18/36, 252 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

1.2 expected points added · -6.8% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Kenny PickettQB

10/13, 120 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

1.4 expected points added · +20.7% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

18 att, 74 yds, 0 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Breece HallRB

17 att, 66 yds, 1 TD

3.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

George PickensWR

6/8 for 102 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Pat FreiermuthTE

7/9 for 85 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	10	35	5:03	Punt
2	NYJ	NYJ 9	4	9	2:16	Punt
3	PIT	PIT 23	1	0	0:06	Interception
4	NYJ	PIT 36	7	16	3:32	Field goal +3
5	PIT	PIT 25	5	9	1:58	Punt
6	NYJ	NYJ 30	10	70	4:28	Touchdown +7
7	PIT	PIT 25	11	52	4:07	Field goal +3
8	NYJ	NYJ 40	5	2	0:57	Punt
9	PIT	PIT 15	5	21	2:11	Punt
10	NYJ	NYJ 9	6	22	1:39	Punt
11	PIT	PIT 34	4	-10	1:11	Punt
12	NYJ	NYJ 46	7	20	2:12	Interception
13	PIT	PIT 30	3	14	0:20	Field goal +3
14	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	1	1:07	Punt
15	PIT	PIT 22	6	14	2:54	Interception
16	NYJ	NYJ 11	4	19	2:14	Defensive touchdown
17	PIT	NYJ 4	4	4	1:27	Touchdown +7
18	NYJ	NYJ 25	8	28	2:11	Punt
19	PIT	PIT 18	13	87	6:31	Touchdown +7
20	NYJ	NYJ 19	13	91	6:05	Touchdown +7
21	PIT	PIT 25	8	44	3:57	Interception
22	NYJ	NYJ 35	11	70	3:18	Touchdown +7
23	PIT	PIT 25	3	27	0:16	Interception

8 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 91 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Zach Wilson	18/36	252	1	2	1	1.2
Braxton Berrios	1/1	2	1	0	0	1.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Breece Hall	17	66	3.9	1	3.1
Zach Wilson	2	15	7.5	0	-0.3
Michael Carter	9	15	1.7	0	-2.3
Elijah Moore	1	2	2.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Corey Davis	5	6	74	1	18%	10.6
Elijah Moore	3	4	53	0	12%	4.5
Tyler Conklin	3	5	52	0	15%	-1.2
Garrett Wilson	2	6	41	0	18%	-0.8
Michael Carter	2	3	14	0	9%	-1.3
Breece Hall	2	6	12	0	18%	-3.6
Braxton Berrios	1	1	6	0	3%	0.1
Zach Wilson	1	1	2	1	3%	1.2
Jeff Smith	0	1	0	0	3%	-2.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
C.J. Mosley	4	6	0.0	0	1
Marcell Harris	4	3	0.0	0	0
Lamarcus Joyner	1	5	0.0	2	4
Kwon Alexander	1	5	0.0	0	0
John Franklin-Myers	1	4	0.0	0	0
Quinnen Williams	2	3	1.0	0	0
Sheldon Rankins	1	3	0.0	0	0
Michael Carter	4	0	0.0	1	1
Jermaine Johnson	3	1	1.0	0	0
D.J. Reed	3	0	0.0	0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kenny Pickett	10/13	120	0	3	0	1.4
Mitchell Trubisky	7/13	84	0	1	3	-6.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Najee Harris	18	74	4.1	0	-3.3
Jaylen Warren	3	18	6.0	0	0.5
Kenny Pickett	6	15	2.5	2	4.0
Diontae Johnson	2	11	5.5	0	1.3
Mitchell Trubisky	1	1	1.0	0	-1.6
Gunner Olszewski	1	0	0.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
George Pickens	6	8	102	32%	5.6
Pat Freiermuth	7	9	85	36%	3.1
Diontae Johnson	2	4	11	16%	-4.5
Jaylen Warren	1	1	4	4%	-0.6
Zach Gentry	1	1	2	4%	-0.1
Chase Claypool	0	2	0	8%	-3.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Myles Jack	5	4	0.0	0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	5	3	0.0	1	2
Arthur Maulet	5	2	0.0	0	1
Tre Norwood	4	2	0.0	0	0
Devin Bush	4	1	0.0	0	0
Alex Highsmith	1	3	1.0	0	0
Levi Wallace	1	2	0.0	0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	1	2	0.0	0	0
Chris Wormley	1	2	0.0	0	0
Najee Harris	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -3
Closing total: 41
NYJ moneyline: +145
PIT moneyline: -161

Steelers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41; the game landed 44 — over by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: NYJ 7 days · PIT 10 days
Coaches: Robert Saleh vs Mike Tomlin