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Seattle Seahawks 48, Lions 45 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q3 15:00, 1st and 10, on Tariq Woolen — 13.7 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 15:00 · 1st and 10
Tariq Woolen
Seahawks
(15:00) 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 88-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 27-T.Woolen at DET 40. 27-T.Woolen for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Lions closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Seattle Seahawks 48–45 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 15:00, Seahawks +13.7% win probability on one snap.
13.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetLionsQ1 7:05(7:05) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to SEA 21, Center-47-S.Daly. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 28 for 7 yards (44-M.Rodriguez). FUMBLES (44-M.Rodriguez), touched at SEA 32, RECOVERED by DET-47-S.Daly at SEA 32.
12.1pts
Rashaad PennySeahawksQ4 2:22(2:22) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny right end for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.9pts
What separated them
Third down
Seahawks won this one — 9 of 12 on third down, against Lions at 4 of 10 on third down.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Seahawks won this one — 13 chunk plays, against Lions at 8 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — no giveaways, against Lions at 2 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 57% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Seahawks183 of 195 plays carry both curves
(15:00) 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 88-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 27-T.Woolen at DET 40. 27-T.Woolen for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −13.7 for LionsExpected points −8.84 for LionsThe model had Seahawks 4 points higher than the market did.play 93
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 15:00SEA +14% win prob(15:00) 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 88-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 27-T.Woolen at DET 40. 27-T.Woolen for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:22DET +13% win prob(2:22) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny right end for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:05DET +12% win prob(7:05) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to SEA 21, Center-47-S.Daly. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 28 for 7 yards (44-M.Rodriguez). FUMBLES (44-M.Rodriguez), touched at SEA 32, RECOVERED by DET-47-S.Daly at SEA 32.
2nd · 9:13DET +12% win prob(9:13) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
2nd · 5:43DET +12% win prob(5:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf pushed ob at DET 2 for 54 yards (5-D.Elliott).
4th · 5:28DET +11% win prob(5:28) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 88-T.Hockenson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Will Dissly's 17-yard touchdown catch with 8:29 left in the 1st put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 14 scores that followed.
4th1:09Justin Jackson·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+748–45
15 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryLions
Seahawks7–2Lions
557Total yards524
9.1Yards per play7.7
57%Success rate44%
75%Third-down rate40%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
13Explosive plays8
26First downs28
0Sacks taken1
0Turnovers2
The read
Seahawks ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.73 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.60Seahawks: +0.60 expected points added per play
+0.27Lions: +0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.73Seahawks: +0.73 expected points added per play
+0.27Lions: +0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.45Seahawks: +0.45 expected points added per play
+0.25Lions: +0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 61 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Lions’s 68 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 6, Lions 6.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.60 expected points added per play vs 0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's sack or hit rate turned over: 24.0% in week 3 against 7.0% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 21 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.9 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.36× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Lions9.4%
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteSEA's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 26.1 points above their season mean of 23.9% and 3.0 times their own 8.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Penny right+15% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:22) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny right end for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:22 · Seahawks · 3rd & 5 at DET 41 · gained 41 · +4.71 EP · +14.8% win probability
181 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 195 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 195 snaps, manual charting on 152. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
14 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 85 yards from the DET 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
195 of 195 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
195
EPA per play
+0.25
Success rate
45%
Yards
1079
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.5164%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+1.0855%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.0660%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR12+0.2425%
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.2640%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-2.0720%
Lions0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
195 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
195 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Seahawks6Lions0
Seahawks7Lions0
Touchdown16 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Lions 12
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 26 to the Lions 31
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Seahawks7Lions6
Touchdown2 plays
Seahawks13Lions6
Seahawks14Lions6
Touchdown7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Lions 8
The period ended11 plays, from the Lions 28 to the Seahawks 43
2nd quarter49 plays
Seahawks14Lions9
Field goal6 plays, from the Seahawks 48 to the Seahawks 27
Seahawks17Lions9
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the Lions 36
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Lions 16 to the Lions 32
Seahawks23Lions9
Seahawks24Lions9
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 48 to the Lions 2
Seahawks24Lions15
Touchdown21 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Seahawks 1
3rd quarter42 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Seahawks30Lions15
Touchdown2 plays
Seahawks31Lions15
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 38
No good7 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Lions 21
Seahawks31Lions21
Seahawks31Lions23
Touchdown5 plays, from the Lions 29 to the Lions 49
Seahawks37Lions23
Seahawks38Lions23
Touchdown15 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Lions 25
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter62 plays
Seahawks38Lions29
Seahawks38Lions31
Touchdown3 plays, from the Seahawks 4 to the Seahawks 3
Seahawks41Lions31
Field goal13 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Lions 7
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Seahawks41Lions37
Seahawks41Lions38
Touchdown15 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Seahawks 4
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Seahawks47Lions38
Seahawks48Lions38
Touchdown9 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Lions 41
Seahawks48Lions44
Seahawks48Lions45
Touchdown11 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Seahawks 2
The period ended9 plays, from the Lions 46 to the Lions 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Seahawkscategory by categoryLions
Seahawks6
Lions0
