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2022 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 2, 2022 · Ford Field

Seattle SeahawksWinner

48

Detroit Lions

45

DET -3 upsetO 48.5 ✓Dome

Seattle Seahawks 48–45 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 15:00, SEA +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DET ↑SEA ↓
Q3 · 15:00SEA 30 — DET 15DET ball · 1st & 10SEA 73%

(15:00) 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 88-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 27-T.Woolen at DET 40. 27-T.Woolen for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 15:00SEA +14% win prob(15:00) 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 88-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 27-T.Woolen at DET 40. 27-T.Woolen for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 2:22DET +13% win prob(2:22) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny right end for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q1 · 7:05DET +12% win prob(7:05) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to SEA 21, Center-47-S.Daly. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 28 for 7 yards (44-M.Rodriguez). FUMBLES (44-M.Rodriguez), touched at SEA 32, RECOVERED by DET-47-S.Daly at SEA 32.
  4. Q2 · 9:13DET +12% win prob(9:13) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:29SEA Touchdown

    (8:29) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 89-W.Dissly for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 7 — DET 0
  2. Q1 · 6:54DET Touchdown

    (6:54) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 88-T.Hockenson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SEA-27-T.Woolen, Defensive Holding, declined.

    Score after this play: SEA 7 — DET 6
  3. Q1 · 4:40SEA Touchdown

    (4:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 14 — DET 6
  4. Q2 · 13:12DET Field goal

    (13:12) 17-D.Eberle 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: SEA 14 — DET 9
  5. Q2 · 9:13SEA Field goal

    (9:13) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: SEA 17 — DET 9
  6. Q2 · 5:09SEA Touchdown

    (5:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 87-N.Fant for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 24 — DET 9
  7. Q2 · 0:03DET Touchdown

    (:03) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: SEA 24 — DET 15
  8. Q3 · 15:00SEA Touchdown

    (15:00) 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 88-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 27-T.Woolen at DET 40. 27-T.Woolen for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 31 — DET 15
  9. Q3 · 6:39DET Touchdown

    (6:39) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: SEA 31 — DET 23
  10. Q3 · 0:40SEA Touchdown

    (:40) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny up the middle for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 38 — DET 23
  11. Q4 · 14:27DET Touchdown

    (14:27) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 8-J.Reynolds for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SEA-30-M.Jackson, Defensive Holding, declined. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: SEA 38 — DET 31
  12. Q4 · 9:36SEA Field goal

    (9:36) 5-J.Myers 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: SEA 41 — DET 31
  13. Q4 · 5:28DET Touchdown

    (5:28) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 88-T.Hockenson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 41 — DET 38
  14. Q4 · 2:22SEA Touchdown

    (2:22) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny right end for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 48 — DET 38
  15. Q4 · 1:09DET Touchdown

    (1:09) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 42-J.Jackson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 48 — DET 45

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSeahawksLions
Offensive plays6168
Total yards557 (edge)524
Yards per play9.1 (edge)7.7
Expected points added / play0.60 (edge)0.27
Success rate57% (edge)44%
Dropback rate52%63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.73 (edge)0.27
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.45 (edge)0.25
Third downs9/12 (edge)4/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)13 (edge)8
First downs gained on snaps2628 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)1
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.60 expected points added per play vs 0.27.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

26/39, 378 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

14.8 expected points added · +2.4% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

23/30, 320 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

21.0 expected points added · +13.1% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Rashaad PennyRB

17 att, 151 yds, 2 TD

9.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Jamaal WilliamsRB

19 att, 108 yds, 2 TD

4.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

T.J. HockensonTE

8/12 for 179 yds, 2 TD

31% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

DK MetcalfWR

7/10 for 149 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · 10.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1SEASEA 2513806:36Touchdown +7
2DETDET 26551:30Punt
3DETSEA 322320:07Touchdown +6
4SEASEA 257662:12Touchdown +7
5DETDET 2813516:28Field goal +3
6SEASEA 409323:59Field goal +3
7DETDET 166372:26Fumble
8SEASEA 484621:38Touchdown +7
9DETDET 2514905:04Touchdown +6
10DETDET 25200:11Defensive touchdown
11DETDET 25843:45Punt
12SEASEA 226623:35Missed field goal
13DETDET 294730:59Touchdown +8
14SEASEA 2513905:57Touchdown +7
15DETDET 255871:10Touchdown +8
16SEASEA 2511784:51Field goal +3
17DETDET 2514704:06Touchdown +7
18SEASEA 259753:12Touchdown +7
19DETDET 2511751:08Touchdown +7
20SEADET 466121:06End of game

14 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 90 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Geno Smith23/3032020021.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rashaad Penny171518.929.7
Geno Smith7497.014.2
Kenneth Walker8293.60-1.2
D'Wayne Eskridge166.000.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DK Metcalf710149034%10.8
Tyler Lockett6891028%4.9
Will Dissly4439114%3.8
Colby Parkinson2328010%1.8
D'Wayne Eskridge111003%0.6
Rashaad Penny11603%1.4
Noah Fant11213%0.8
Kenneth Walker11-503%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordyn Brooks360.000
Coby Bryant330.000
Cody Barton230.001
Tariq Woolen410.011
Boye Mafe320.000
Quandre Diggs220.000
Sidney Jones310.000
Uchenna Nwosu121.001
Josh Jones200.001
Ryan Neal200.000

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff26/3937841114.8
Jack Fox1/160003.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jamaal Williams191085.724.5
Craig Reynolds23015.002.2
Kalif Raymond133.00-0.3
Justin Jackson231.50-1.2
Jared Goff111.000.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
T.J. Hockenson812179231%6.6
Josh Reynolds7881121%5.9
Tom Kennedy3554013%6.6
Kalif Raymond3538013%-7.0
Quintez Cephus231508%3.0
Craig Reynolds111203%0.5
Justin Jackson22415%0.6
Jamaal Williams13108%-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
DeShon Elliott820.000
Malcolm Rodriguez720.000
Jeff Okudah500.001
Aidan Hutchinson230.000
Alex Anzalone320.000
Amani Oruwariye410.001
Kerby Joseph300.000
Derrick Barnes200.000
Charles Harris110.001
Mike Hughes200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DET -3
Closing total
48.5
SEA moneyline
+151
DET moneyline
-169

Lions closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 93 — over by 44.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
SEA 7 days · DET 7 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Dan Campbell