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Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Titans149 of 159 plays carry both curves
(8:49) 28-J.Taylor right guard to TEN 23 for 1 yard (52-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (52-J.Schobert), RECOVERED by TEN-26-K.Fulton at TEN 22.
Swing −21.6 for ColtsExpected points −5.21 for ColtsThe model had Titans 3 points higher than the market did.play 136
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 8:49TEN +22% win prob(8:49) 28-J.Taylor right guard to TEN 23 for 1 yard (52-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (52-J.Schobert), RECOVERED by TEN-26-K.Fulton at TEN 22.
4th · 4:41IND +16% win prob(4:41) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce to TEN 22 for 44 yards (3-C.Farley).
4th · 2:45TEN +11% win prob(2:45) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at TEN 33 for -8 yards (96-D.Autry).
1st · 10:56TEN +10% win prob(10:56) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at IND 40 for -10 yards (96-D.Autry). FUMBLES (96-D.Autry) [96-D.Autry], touched at IND 33, RECOVERED by TEN-48-B.Dupree at IND 32. Credit sack for -18 yards for TEN #96 Autry.
4th · 2:03TEN +9% win prob(2:03) 7-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
3rd · 2:38IND +9% win prob(2:38) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 16-A.Dulin to TEN 34 for 10 yards (21-R.McCreary).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Robert Woods's 7-yard touchdown catch with 8:04 left in the 1st put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:04Robert Woods·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan TannehillLead never changed again+77–0
2nd13:28Chase McLaughlin·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap L.Rhodes+314–3
2nd9:44Randy Bullock·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+317–3
2nd7:46Chigoziem Okonkwo·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+724–3
2nd2:20Mo Alie-Cox·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+724–10
3rd7:31Mo Alie-Cox·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+724–17
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryColts
Titans3–5Colts
246Total yards365
5.0Yards per play5.8
47%Success rate37%
45%Third-down rate62%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays8
16First downs21
3Sacks taken3
0Turnovers3
The read
Colts ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Titans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.61 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Titans: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.08Colts: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.00Titans: +0.00 expected points added per play
+0.21Colts: +0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.08Titans: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.61Colts: −0.61 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 49 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Colts’s 63 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Titans 3, Colts 3.
NoteColts outgained Titans 365-246 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +0.7 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Colts19.2%
inside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.81× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
NoteIND's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 31.7%, 15.4 points above their season mean of 16.3% and 1.7 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
55Aaron BrewerC · Every snap100%54 snaps
78Nicholas Petit-FrereT · Every snap100%54 snaps
71Dennis DaleyG · Every snap100%54 snaps
64Nate DavisG · Every snap100%54 snaps
17Ryan TannehillQB · Every snap100%54 snaps
60Ben JonesC · Every snap100%54 snaps
2Robert WoodsWR · Heavy rotation76%41 snaps
87Geoff SwaimTE · Heavy rotation74%40 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Heavy rotation69%37 snaps
16Treylon BurksWR · Heavy rotation65%35 snaps
15Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Heavy rotation65%35 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Rotational37%20 snaps
40Dontrell HilliardRB · Rotational31%17 snaps
85Chigoziem OkonkwoTE · Situational24%13 snaps
44Tory CarterFB · Situational20%11 snaps
8Cody HollisterWR · Situational20%11 snaps
86Kevin RaderTE · Situational13%7 snaps
18Kyle PhilipsWR · Situational4%2 snaps
75Dillon RadunzT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Theo JacksonDBWyatt RayDEAmani HookerFSUgochukwu AmadiFSZach CunninghamILBOlasunkanmi AdeniyiOLBLe'Raven ClarkT
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Taylor right−20% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(8:49) 28-J.Taylor right guard to TEN 23 for 1 yard (52-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (52-J.Schobert), RECOVERED by TEN-26-K.Fulton at TEN 22.
Q4 8:49 · Colts · 3rd & 1 at TEN 24 · gained 1 · -5.21 EP · −20.5% win probability
147 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 159 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, manual charting on 133. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 75 yards from the TEN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
159 of 159 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
159
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
40%
Yards
608
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.0565%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.2356%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.0485%
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.2944%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+1.0138%
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.0617%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.3240%
Colts2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost13 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Titans 45
Titans6Colts0
Titans7Colts0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Colts 7
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 27
Titans13Colts0
Titans14Colts0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Colts 19
The period ended8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Titans 26
2nd quarter52 plays
Titans14Colts3
Field goal7 plays, from the Titans 24 to the Titans 4
Titans17Colts3
Field goal11 plays, from the Titans 33 to the Colts 26
Intercepted2 plays
Titans23Colts3
Titans24Colts3
Touchdown6 plays, from the Colts 28 to the Colts 8
Titans24Colts9
Titans24Colts10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Titans 5
The period ended14 plays, from the Titans 26 to the Colts 25
3rd quarter32 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 24 to the Titans 27
Titans24Colts16
Titans24Colts17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 33 to the Titans 7
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 28
The period ended11 plays, from the Colts 21 to the Titans 34
4th quarter35 plays
Punt1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 28
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Titans 24
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 22 to the Titans 46
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
No good6 plays, from the Colts 34 to the Titans 22
The period ended10 plays, from the Titans 41 to the Colts 46
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Colts -4.5
Closing total
43
Titans moneyline
+182
Colts moneyline
-205
Colts closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43; the game landed 41 — under by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 68°F at kickoff; breezy at 13 mph out of the north-east; clear.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Titans 7 days · Colts 7 days
Coaches
Mike Vrabel vs Frank Reich
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 3:27
TEN +9% win prob
(3:27) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 21-N.Hines to TEN 25 for -3 yards (21-R.McCreary) [96-D.Autry].
3rd · 1:22TEN +8% win prob(1:22) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at TEN 42 for -6 yards (99-R.Weaver). FUMBLES (99-R.Weaver), touched at TEN 40, recovered by IND-69-M.Pryor at TEN 49.
