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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 2, 2022 · Lucas Oil Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 4
It turned at Q4 8:49, 3rd and 1, on Jonathan Taylor — 21.6 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Tennessee Titans 24–17. Biggest swing: Q4 8:49, Titans +21.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:49 · 3rd and 1
Jonathan Taylor
Titans
(8:49) 28-J.Taylor right guard to TEN 23 for 1 yard (52-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (52-J.Schobert), RECOVERED by TEN-26-K.Fulton at TEN 22.
21.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Titans won this one — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.61 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Titans won this one — no giveaways, against Colts at 3 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Titans won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Titans won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Colts at 2 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
(8:49) 28-J.Taylor right guard to TEN 23 for 1 yard (52-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (52-J.Schobert), RECOVERED by TEN-26-K.Fulton at TEN 22.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Robert Woods's 7-yard touchdown catch with 8:04 left in the 1st put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Robert Woods7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan TannehillLead never changed again+77–07 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Titanscategory by categoryColts
Colts ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Titans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.61 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 49 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Colts’s 63 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Titans 3, Colts 3.
Colts outgained Titans 365-246 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Titans-2.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · +8.4 vs their -10.7 pts, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.86× that swing) · 49 snaps
Colts-4.3 ptsright on their number · −0.5 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 16% to 82%
Tendencies room →Titans42.1%right on their number · −4.3 vs their 46.4%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 38 early downs
Colts60.0%right on their number · +3.1 vs their 56.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 57%
Tendencies room →Titans38.5%leaned — faked the run · +13.5 vs their 25.0%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (+1.07× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Colts31.7%leaned — faked the run · +15.4 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+1.66× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -53% to 125%
Fourth Down room →Titans—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 20.8%.
Colts—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 36.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 45%
Tendencies room →Titans17.1%right on their number · −3.9 vs their 20.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Colts15.4%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 34%
Tendencies room →Titans14.6%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Colts19.2%inside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.81× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
IND's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 31.7%, 15.4 points above their season mean of 16.3% and 1.7 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · IND
27/37, 356 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
8.8 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
17/21, 137 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-0.3 expected points added · +9.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Mo Alie-Cox banked 15.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 26.5 | +15.9 | 70% | 68% | 17% | 14% | 6/6, 85 yd, 2 TD |
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 23.7 | +5.0 | 69% | 50% | 24% | 3% | 22 car, 114 yd, 1 TD · 3/5, 33 yd |
| Matt RyanQB · Starter QB | 17.8 | +2.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/37, 356 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, -4 yd |
| Ryan TannehillQB · Starter QB | 14.4 | +3.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/21, 137 yd, 2 TD · 5 car, 9 yd |
| Robert WoodsWR · Featured Receiver | 13.0 | +5.3 | 76% | 85% | 19% | 18% | 4/4, 30 yd, 1 TD |
| Chigoziem OkonkwoTE | 12.8 | +5.0 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Alec PierceWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.0 | +2.7 | 44% | 41% | 17% | 37% | 4/6, 80 yd |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.2 | +4.5 | 45% | 41% | 11% | 14% | 4/4, 62 yd |
| Parris CampbellWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.3 | +2.5 | 67% | 68% | 11% | 9% | 4/4, 43 yd |
| Michael PittmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | −5.8 | 89% | 93% | 17% | 9% | 3/6, 31 yd |
| Dontrell HilliardRB · Receiving Back | 5.8 | +0.5 | 31% | 50% | 19% | 0% | 4/4, 18 yd |
| Jelani WoodsTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | +2.5 | 23% | 27% | 3% | 6% | 1/1, 33 yd |
| Ashton DulinWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | −0.4 | 29% | 29% | 8% | 8% | 2/3, 18 yd |
| Treylon BurksWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | −1.3 | 65% | 73% | 14% | 30% | 1 car, 4 yd · 2/3, 14 yd |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · Bell Cow Back | 3.3 | −11.6 | 88% | 83% | 8% | 1% | 20 car, 42 yd · 1/3, 1 yd |
| Nyheim Miller-HinesRB | 2.3 | −0.8 | 32% | 32% | 6% | 0% | 1 car, 0 yd · 2/2, 3 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | +0.1 | 37% | 62% | 5% | 3% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Mike StrachanWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 14% | 17% | 3% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Hassan HaskinsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Kyle PhilipsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:49) 28-J.Taylor right guard to TEN 23 for 1 yard (52-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (52-J.Schobert), RECOVERED by TEN-26-K.Fulton at TEN 22.
Q4 8:49 · Colts · 3rd & 1 at TEN 24 · gained 1 · -5.21 EP · −20.5% win probability
147 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 159 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, manual charting on 133. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 75 yards from the TEN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Titans6
Colts0Titans7Colts0Titans13Colts0Titans14Colts0Titans14Colts3Titans17Colts3Titans23Colts3Titans24Colts3Titans24Colts9Titans24Colts10Titans24Colts16Titans24Colts17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Titans at Colts, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 17/21 | 137 | 2 | 0 | 3 | −0.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 22 | 114 | 5.2 | 1 | +1.2 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Treylon Burks |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 | 14% | +3.8 |
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger McCreary | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Schobert | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Cole |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 27/37 | 356 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +8.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_04_TEN_IND
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Colts closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43; the game landed 41 — under by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 4.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.7 |
| 24% |
| +0.4 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 4 | 30 | 1 | 19% | +4.4 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 19% | −0.7 |
| Treylon Burks | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 14% | −0.8 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5% | +1.1 |
| Kyle Philips | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.4 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| David Long Jr. | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Adams | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caleb Farley | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua Kalu | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Teair Tart | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 20 | 42 | 2.1 | 0 | −11.6 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mo Alie-Cox | 6 | 6 | 85 | 2 | 17% | +7.0 |
| Alec Pierce | 4 | 6 | 80 | 0 | 17% | +1.1 |
| Kylen Granson | 4 | 4 | 62 | 0 | 11% | +6.0 |
| Parris Campbell | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 11% | +3.4 |
| Jelani Woods | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 | 3% | +2.4 |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 | 17% | −0.4 |
| Ashton Dulin | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 8% | +2.9 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6% | −1.3 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8% | −1.7 |
| Mike Strachan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaire Franklin | 8 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Okereke | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyquan Lewis | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| E.J. Speed | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kwity Paye | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| JoJo Domann | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dayo Odeyingbo | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
