2022 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 2, 2022 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Tennessee TitansWinner

Indianapolis Colts

IND -4.5 upsetU 43 ✓Colts closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tennessee Titans 24–17. Biggest swing: Q4 8:49, TEN +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 8:49TEN 24 — IND 17IND ball · 3rd & 1TEN 64%

(8:49) 28-J.Taylor right guard to TEN 23 for 1 yard (52-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (52-J.Schobert), RECOVERED by TEN-26-K.Fulton at TEN 22.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 8:49TEN +22% win prob(8:49) 28-J.Taylor right guard to TEN 23 for 1 yard (52-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (52-J.Schobert), RECOVERED by TEN-26-K.Fulton at TEN 22.
Q4 · 4:41IND +16% win prob(4:41) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce to TEN 22 for 44 yards (3-C.Farley).
Q4 · 2:45TEN +11% win prob(2:45) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at TEN 33 for -8 yards (96-D.Autry).
Q1 · 10:56TEN +10% win prob(10:56) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at IND 40 for -10 yards (96-D.Autry). FUMBLES (96-D.Autry) [96-D.Autry], touched at IND 33, RECOVERED by TEN-48-B.Dupree at IND 32. Credit sack for -18 yards for TEN #96 Autry.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:04TEN Touchdown
(8:04) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 2-R.Woods for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 7 — IND 0
Q1 · 3:53TEN Touchdown
(3:53) 22-D.Henry right end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 14 — IND 0
Q2 · 13:28IND Field goal
(13:28) 7-C.McLaughlin 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
Score after this play: TEN 14 — IND 3
Q2 · 9:44TEN Field goal
(9:44) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: TEN 17 — IND 3
Q2 · 7:46TEN Touchdown
(7:46) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 85-C.Okonkwo for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-53-S.Leonard was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 24 — IND 3
Q2 · 2:20IND Touchdown
(2:20) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-21-R.McCreary, Illegal Contact, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 24 — IND 10
Q3 · 7:31IND Touchdown
(7:31) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 24 — IND 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Colts
Offensive plays	49	63
Total yards	246	365 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.04 (edge)	-0.08
Success rate	47% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	53%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.00	0.21 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08 (edge)	-0.61
Third downs	5/11	8/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Colts outgained Titans 365–246 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Matt RyanQB

27/37, 356 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

8.8 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

17/21, 137 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-0.3 expected points added · +9.5% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

22 att, 114 yds, 1 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

20 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-11.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Mo Alie-CoxTE

6/6 for 85 yds, 2 TD

17% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Alec PierceWR

4/6 for 80 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 1.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 25	11	8	4:13	Fumble
2	TEN	IND 32	6	32	2:47	Touchdown +7
3	IND	IND 25	5	2	0:55	Punt
4	TEN	TEN 25	7	75	3:19	Touchdown +7
5	IND	IND 25	12	71	5:21	Field goal +3
6	TEN	TEN 33	10	31	3:46	Field goal +3
7	IND	IND 25	2	0	0:05	Interception
8	TEN	IND 28	6	33	1:54	Touchdown +7
9	IND	IND 25	11	85	5:27	Touchdown +7
10	TEN	TEN 26	9	44	2:13	End of half
11	TEN	TEN 24	5	-1	2:25	Punt
12	IND	IND 33	9	62	5:09	Touchdown +7
13	TEN	TEN 25	5	3	1:50	Punt
14	IND	IND 21	11	49	5:43	Punt
15	TEN	TEN 20	4	8	1:57	Punt
16	IND	IND 22	7	55	4:16	Fumble
17	TEN	TEN 22	6	8	3:54	Punt
18	IND	IND 34	6	33	2:48	Missed field goal
19	TEN	TEN 41	6	13	1:58	End of game

7 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 85 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	17/21	137	2	0	3	-0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	22	114	5.2	1	1.2
Ryan Tannehill	5	9	1.8	0	-1.0
Treylon Burks	1	4	4.0	0	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chigoziem Okonkwo	3	3	38	1	14%	3.8
Derrick Henry	3	5	33	0	24%	0.4
Robert Woods	4	4	30	1	19%	4.4
Dontrell Hilliard	4	4	18	0	19%	-0.7
Treylon Burks	2	3	14	0	14%	-0.8
Austin Hooper	1	1	4	0	5%	1.1
Kyle Philips	0	1	0	0	5%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Roger McCreary	5	2	0	0
Joe Schobert	3	2	0	0
Dylan Cole	3	2	0	0
David Long Jr.	2	3	0	1
Jeffery Simmons	1	4	0	0
Andrew Adams	3	2	0	0
Kevin Byard	1	3	0	0
Caleb Farley	4	0	0	0
Joshua Kalu	1	2	0	0
Teair Tart	1	2	1	2

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	27/37	356	2	1	3	8.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	20	42	2.1	-11.6
Nyheim Miller-Hines	1	0	0.0	-0.6
Matt Ryan	2	-4	-2.0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mo Alie-Cox	6	6	85	2	17%	7.0
Alec Pierce	4	6	80	0	17%	1.1
Kylen Granson	4	4	62	0	11%	6.0
Parris Campbell	4	4	43	0	11%	3.4
Jelani Woods	1	1	33	0	3%	2.4
Michael Pittman	3	6	31	0	17%	-0.4
Ashton Dulin	2	3	18	0	8%	2.9
Nyheim Miller-Hines	2	2	3	0	6%	-1.3
Jonathan Taylor	1	3	1	0	8%	-1.7
Mike Strachan	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Zaire Franklin	8	7	0.0
Bobby Okereke	4	3	0.0
Kenny Moore	3	2	0.0
Tyquan Lewis	1	2	0.0
E.J. Speed	1	2	0.0
Kwity Paye	1	2	1.0
JoJo Domann	1	2	0.0
Isaiah Rodgers	1	1	0.0
Dayo Odeyingbo	1	1	1.0
Rodney Thomas	2	0	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -4.5
Closing total: 43
TEN moneyline: +182
IND moneyline: -205

Colts closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43; the game landed 41 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: TEN 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Frank Reich

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.