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Washington Commanders 10 at Dallas Cowboys 25. Final.
Cowboys -3 ✓U 40.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 4
Dallas Cowboys 25, Commanders 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 7:11, 3rd and 3, on Jahan Dotson — 9.8 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 7:11 · 3rd and 3
Jahan Dotson
Commanders
(7:11) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 1-J.Dotson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Cowboys closed -3 and covered, winning by 15.
Dallas Cowboys 25–10. Biggest swing: Q2 7:11, Commanders +9.8% win probability on one snap.
9.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ezekiel ElliottCowboysQ1 14:20(14:20) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 21-E.Elliott to WAS 39 for 31 yards (31-K.Curl).
8.7pts
Curtis SamuelCommandersQ3 14:09(14:09) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 10-C.Samuel to WAS 37 for 14 yards (26-D.Bland).
7.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — no giveaways, against Commanders at 2 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — -0.06 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at -0.41 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.04 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.39 expected points per dropback.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 33% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Commanders173 of 181 plays carry both curves
(7:11) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 1-J.Dotson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −9.8 for CowboysExpected points −2.54 for CowboysThe model had Commanders 3 points higher than the market did.play 56
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 7:11DAL +10% win prob(7:11) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 1-J.Dotson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:20DAL +9% win prob(14:20) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 21-E.Elliott to WAS 39 for 31 yards (31-K.Curl).
3rd · 14:09DAL +8% win prob(14:09) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 10-C.Samuel to WAS 37 for 14 yards (26-D.Bland).
1st · 5:45WAS +8% win prob(5:45) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush sacked at DAL 11 for -6 yards (93-J.Allen).
3rd · 7:48DAL +8% win prob(7:48) 10-C.Rush pass deep middle to 85-N.Brown to WAS 17 for 45 yards (20-B.McCain).
2nd · 0:17WAS +7% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left intended for 1-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Diggs [56-D.Fowler] at DAL 17. 7-T.Diggs to DAL 17 for no gain (1-J.Dotson).
3rd · 0:54
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Michael Gallup's 9-yard touchdown catch with 1:10 left in the 2nd put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:39Brett Maher·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+30–3
2nd15:00Brett Maher·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+30–6
2nd1:10Michael Gallup·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Cooper Rushfrom Cooper Rush · kick blocked by E.ObadaLead never changed again+67–12
3rd5:00Brett Maher·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+37–15
3rd1:31Joey Slye·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.Cheeseman+310–15
4th15:00CeeDee Lamb·30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Cooper Rushfrom Cooper Rush+710–22
4th3:54Brett Maher·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+310–25
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryCowboys
Commanders3–4Cowboys
297Total yards279
4.2Yards per play4.9
30%Success rate33%
33%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays4
16First downs11
2Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
Cowboys ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.27Commanders: −0.27 expected points added per play
−0.18Cowboys: −0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.39Commanders: −0.39 expected points added per play
+0.04Cowboys: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Commanders: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.41Cowboys: −0.41 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 71 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 57 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 3, Cowboys 4.
NoteCommanders outgained Cowboys 297-279 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
DAL's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 21 team-games charted in week 4 — 16.7 points clear of the next team along.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Cowboys24.4%
inside their normal wobble · +7.7 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.89× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteDAL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 29.3 points below their season mean of 29.3% and 1.1 times their own 27.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Rush pass+10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:20) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 21-E.Elliott to WAS 39 for 31 yards (31-K.Curl).
Q1 14:20 · Cowboys · 3rd & 5 at DAL 30 · gained 31 · +3.06 EP · +9.7% win probability
171 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 75 yards from the DAL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
34%
Yards
576
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.2773%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.0856%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.3325%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.5843%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.4040%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Commanders0Cowboys3
Field goal8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Commanders 35
Punt10 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Cowboys 48
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Cowboys 17
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 38 to the Commanders 42
The period ended7 plays, from the Cowboys 13 to the Commanders 31
2nd quarter50 plays
Commanders0Cowboys6
Field goal1 play
Punt9 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Cowboys 44
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 16 to the Cowboys 17
Commanders6Cowboys6
Commanders7Cowboys6
Touchdown8 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Cowboys 10
Commanders7Cowboys12
Touchdown20 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Commanders 9
The period ended6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 37
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 38
Punt6 plays
Punt6 plays
Commanders7Cowboys15
Field goal6 plays, from the Cowboys 38 to the Commanders 10
Commanders10Cowboys15
Field goal10 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Cowboys 17
The period ended5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Commanders 35
4th quarter55 plays
Commanders10Cowboys21
Commanders10Cowboys22
Touchdown2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 18 to the Commanders 40
Punt4 plays
The period ended9 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 10
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 16 to midfield
Intercepted3 plays, from the Commanders 11 to the Commanders 13
Commanders10Cowboys25
Field goal4 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 11
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 44
Punt6 plays
The period ended9 plays, from the Commanders 7 to the Commanders 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -3
Closing total
40.5
Commanders moneyline
+140
Cowboys moneyline
-155
Cowboys closed -3 and covered, winning by 15.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 35 — under by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Commanders 7 days · Cowboys 6 days
Coaches
Ron Rivera vs Mike McCarthy
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
DAL +7% win prob
(:54) 10-C.Rush pass incomplete deep middle to 13-M.Gallup. PENALTY on WAS-3-W.Jackson, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards, enforced at DAL 27 - No Play.
3rd · 4:05DAL +7% win prob(4:05) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 1-J.Dotson to DAL 42 for 31 yards (26-D.Bland).
