2022 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 2, 2022 · AT&T Stadium

Washington Commanders

Dallas CowboysWinner

DAL -3 ✓U 40.5 ✓DomeCowboys closed -3 and covered, winning by 15.

Dallas Cowboys 25–10. Biggest swing: Q2 7:11, DAL +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 7:11WAS 6 — DAL 6WAS ball · 3rd & 3DAL 63%

(7:11) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 1-J.Dotson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 7:11DAL +10% win prob(7:11) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 1-J.Dotson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 14:20DAL +9% win prob(14:20) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 21-E.Elliott to WAS 39 for 31 yards (31-K.Curl).
Q3 · 14:09DAL +8% win prob(14:09) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 10-C.Samuel to WAS 37 for 14 yards (26-D.Bland).
Q1 · 5:45WAS +8% win prob(5:45) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush sacked at DAL 11 for -6 yards (93-J.Allen).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:39DAL Field goal
(11:39) 19-B.Maher 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: WAS 0 — DAL 3
Q2 · 15:00DAL Field goal
(15:00) 19-B.Maher 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: WAS 0 — DAL 6
Q2 · 7:11WAS Touchdown
(7:11) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 1-J.Dotson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 7 — DAL 6
Q2 · 1:10DAL Touchdown
(1:10) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 13-M.Gallup for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: WAS 7 — DAL 12
Q3 · 5:00DAL Field goal
(5:00) 19-B.Maher 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: WAS 7 — DAL 15
Q3 · 1:31WAS Field goal
(1:31) 6-J.Slye 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: WAS 10 — DAL 15
Q4 · 15:00DAL Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass deep middle to 88-C.Lamb for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 10 — DAL 22
Q4 · 3:54DAL Field goal
(3:54) 19-B.Maher 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: WAS 10 — DAL 25

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Cowboys
Offensive plays	71	57
Total yards	297 (edge)	279
Yards per play	4.2	4.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.27	-0.18 (edge)
Success rate	30%	33% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.39	0.04 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06 (edge)	-0.41
Third downs	5/15	5/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	16 (edge)	11
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Commanders outgained Cowboys 297–279 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Cooper RushQB

15/27, 223 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

1.6 expected points added · -7.9% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Carson WentzQB

25/42, 170 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-17.4 expected points added · -6.2% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

19 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

-7.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Antonio GibsonRB

13 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

-2.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

CeeDee LambWR

6/8 for 97 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

Noah BrownWR

3/6 for 61 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · -0.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DAL	DAL 25	8	40	3:26	Field goal +3
2	WAS	WAS 25	9	18	4:33	Punt
3	DAL	DAL 10	4	1	2:03	Punt
4	WAS	WAS 38	4	5	2:14	Punt
5	DAL	DAL 13	7	60	2:48	Field goal +3
6	WAS	WAS 25	9	42	3:23	Punt
7	DAL	DAL 16	4	1	0:53	Punt
8	WAS	WAS 35	8	65	3:35	Touchdown +7
9	DAL	DAL 25	17	75	6:01	Touchdown +6
10	WAS	WAS 25	5	12	0:54	Interception
11	DAL	DAL 17	1	3	0:10	End of half
12	WAS	WAS 25	8	13	3:38	Punt
13	DAL	DAL 15	5	-9	1:41	Punt
14	WAS	WAS 39	4	-2	1:53	Punt
15	DAL	DAL 38	5	57	2:52	Field goal +3
16	WAS	WAS 25	9	67	3:29	Field goal +3
17	DAL	DAL 25	5	37	1:33	Touchdown +7
18	WAS	WAS 18	6	22	2:19	Punt
19	DAL	DAL 9	4	-1	1:14	Punt
20	WAS	DAL 30	7	9	3:24	Turnover on downs
21	DAL	DAL 16	4	7	1:49	Punt
22	WAS	WAS 11	3	2	0:39	Interception
23	DAL	WAS 20	4	9	1:38	Field goal +3
24	WAS	WAS 25	7	19	1:12	Turnover on downs
25	DAL	WAS 44	4	-1	0:46	Punt
26	WAS	WAS 7	7	25	1:53	End of game

8 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 75 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	25/42	170	1	2	2	-17.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Antonio Gibson	13	49	3.8	-2.1
Jonathan Williams	5	48	9.6	2.2
J.D. McKissic	8	40	5.0	-1.6
Carson Wentz	1	5	5.0	-0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jahan Dotson	3	4	43	1	10%	4.1
Curtis Samuel	4	7	38	0	18%	-1.0
John Bates	4	6	19	0	15%	-2.8
Logan Thomas	5	6	19	0	15%	-0.3
J.D. McKissic	3	4	16	0	10%	-1.8
Terry McLaurin	2	6	15	0	15%	-6.9
Antonio Gibson	3	3	14	0	8%	-1.0
Dyami Brown	1	4	6	0	10%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jonathan Allen	5	3	1.0	1
Cole Holcomb	3	4	0.0	0
Kamren Curl	5	2	0.0	0
Bobby McCain	4	2	0.0	0
Daron Payne	2	3	0.0	1
Jamin Davis	1	4	0.0	0
William Jackson	4	0	0.0	1
Darrick Forrest	3	1	0.0	1
Kendall Fuller	2	1	0.0	0
Montez Sweat	1	1	0.0	0

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cooper Rush	15/27	223	2	0	1	1.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	19	49	2.6	-7.0
Cooper Rush	2	7	3.5	-0.1
Tony Pollard	8	6	0.8	-5.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
CeeDee Lamb	6	8	97	1	31%	5.1
Noah Brown	3	6	61	0	23%	-0.1
Ezekiel Elliott	2	2	32	0	8%	1.6
Michael Gallup	2	3	24	1	12%	4.4
Jake Ferguson	1	1	7	0	4%	-0.8
Tony Pollard	1	3	2	0	12%	-2.8
Dalton Schultz	0	3	0	0	12%	-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Donovan Wilson	8	1	0	0
Malik Hooker	5	3	0	0
Leighton Vander Esch	3	3	0	0
Israel Mukuamu	4	2	0	0
Anthony Brown	2	2	0	0
Anthony Barr	3	1	0	0
Micah Parsons	4	0	0	0
Dorance Armstrong	2	1	0	0
Osa Odighizuwa	1	2	0	0
Daron Bland	3	0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -3
Closing total: 40.5
WAS moneyline: +140
DAL moneyline: -155

Cowboys closed -3 and covered, winning by 15.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 35 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: WAS 7 days · DAL 6 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Mike McCarthy

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.