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2022 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 9, 2022 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Chicago Bears

22

Minnesota VikingsWinner

29

MIN -10 no coverO 44 ✓Dome

Minnesota Vikings 29–22. Biggest swing: Q4 12:54, CHI +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIN ↑CHI ↓
Q4 · 12:54CHI 19 — MIN 21MIN ball · 1st & 10MIN 84%

(12:54) 8-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 19-A.Thielen INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Vildor at CHI 30. 22-K.Vildor to CHI 48 for 18 yards (67-E.Ingram).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 12:54CHI +18% win prob(12:54) 8-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 19-A.Thielen INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Vildor at CHI 30. 22-K.Vildor to CHI 48 for 18 yards (67-E.Ingram).
  2. Q4 · 2:45MIN +13% win prob(2:45) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 2-A.Mattison to CHI 2 for 11 yards (31-Ja.Jones, 58-R.Smith).
  3. Q4 · 5:42MIN +12% win prob(5:42) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 84-I.Smith to CHI 35 for 13 yards (58-R.Smith; 31-Ja.Jones).
  4. Q4 · 9:31MIN +11% win prob(9:31) 2-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:18MIN Touchdown

    (8:18) 74-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. 4-D.Cook right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 0 — MIN 7
  2. Q1 · 6:11CHI Field goal

    (6:11) 2-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: CHI 3 — MIN 7
  3. Q2 · 15:00MIN Touchdown

    (15:00) 4-D.Cook right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 3 — MIN 14
  4. Q2 · 7:23MIN Touchdown

    (7:23) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 5-J.Reagor for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 3 — MIN 21
  5. Q2 · 1:12CHI Touchdown

    (1:12) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 10 — MIN 21
  6. Q3 · 10:31CHI Touchdown

    (10:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 12-V.Jones for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: CHI 16 — MIN 21
  7. Q3 · 1:09CHI Field goal

    (1:09) 2-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: CHI 19 — MIN 21
  8. Q4 · 9:31CHI Field goal

    (9:31) 2-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: CHI 22 — MIN 21
  9. Q4 · 2:29MIN Touchdown

    (2:29) 8-K.Cousins up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: CHI 22 — MIN 29

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBearsVikings
Offensive plays4872
Total yards271433 (edge)
Yards per play5.66.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.010.23 (edge)
Success rate38%58% (edge)
Dropback rate63%61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.240.34 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.360.06 (edge)
Third downs4/1012/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)56 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1629 (edge)
Sacks taken21 (edge)
Turnovers11

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

32/41, 296 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

12.0 expected points added · +7.5% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

15/21, 208 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

7.5 expected points added · +2.4% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

18 att, 94 yds, 2 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

8 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

3.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

12/13 for 154 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 12.9 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

4/4 for 62 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MINMIN 1414866:45Touchdown +7
2CHICHI 257342:09Field goal +3
3MINMIN 2513756:11Touchdown +7
4CHICHI 145-41:18Punt
5MINMIN 2910866:17Touchdown +7
6CHICHI 258153:15Punt
7MINMIN 206252:11Punt
8CHI505500:46Touchdown +7
9MINMIN 249351:08Missed field goal
10CHICHI 3310674:36Touchdown +6
11MINCHI 488152:50Missed field goal
12CHICHI 4111446:29Field goal +3
13MINMIN 346293:21Interception
14CHICHI 487293:18Field goal +3
15MINMIN 2519827:00Touchdown +8
16CHICHI 256361:25Fumble
17MINCHI 45201:01End of game

9 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 86 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Fields15/212081027.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Justin Fields8475.903.6
David Montgomery12201.71-3.1
Khalil Herbert4112.80-2.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
David Montgomery4462019%4.3
Darnell Mooney2552024%1.8
Cole Kmet4445019%3.6
Equanimeous St. Brown2224010%2.1
Ihmir Smith-Marsette1215010%-5.2
Velus Jones11915%1.7
Ryan Griffin11105%-0.6
Dante Pettis020010%-3.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jaylon Jones840.000
Kyler Gordon720.000
Nicholas Morrow530.000
Eddie Jackson610.000
Roquan Smith330.000
Kindle Vildor330.011
Jaquan Brisker410.000
Armon Watts120.000
Al-Quadin Muhammad120.000
Dominique Robinson110.000

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kirk Cousins32/4129611112.0
Justin Jefferson1/1230002.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Dalvin Cook18945.221.3
Alexander Mattison9192.10-1.1
Kirk Cousins441.010.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Justin Jefferson1213154033%12.9
Irv Smith4542013%0.4
K.J. Osborn5541013%2.8
Dalvin Cook222705%2.6
Adam Thielen4727018%-4.1
Alexander Mattison3421010%2.3
Johnny Mundt22605%-0.9
Jalen Reagor11113%1.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Eric Kendricks430.000
Jordan Hicks250.001
Cameron Dantzler600.000
Harrison Phillips230.000
Patrick Peterson400.000
Danielle Hunter311.000
Chandon Sullivan200.000
D.J. Wonnum110.500
Za'Darius Smith110.500
Dan Chisena100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIN -10
Closing total
44
CHI moneyline
+322
MIN moneyline
-385

Vikings closed -10, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44; the game landed 51 — over by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
CHI 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches
Matt Eberflus vs Kevin O'Connell

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.