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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:41 AM ET · 16 to play
2022 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 9, 2022 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
BearsChicago22
BY 7final margin
VikingsMinnesota29
Chicago Bears 22 at Minnesota Vikings 29. Final.
Vikings -10 no coverO 44 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 5
Minnesota Vikings 29, Bears 22 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 12:54, 1st and 10, on Kindle Vildor — 17.9 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:54 · 1st and 10
Kindle Vildor
Bears
(12:54) 8-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 19-A.Thielen INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Vildor at CHI 30. 22-K.Vildor to CHI 48 for 18 yards (67-E.Ingram).
Dome
Vikings closed -10, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Minnesota Vikings 29–22. Biggest swing: Q4 12:54, Bears +17.9% win probability on one snap.
17.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Irv SmithVikingsQ4 5:42(5:42) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 84-I.Smith to CHI 35 for 13 yards (58-R.Smith; 31-Ja.Jones).
11.9pts
Alexander MattisonVikingsQ4 2:45(2:45) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 2-A.Mattison to CHI 2 for 11 yards (31-Ja.Jones, 58-R.Smith).
12.7pts
What separated them
Third down
Vikings won this one — 12 of 15 on third down, against Bears at 4 of 10 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.36 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Vikings won this one — +0.23 expected points per snap, against Bears at +0.01 expected points per snap.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Bears158 of 167 plays carry both curves
(12:54) 8-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 19-A.Thielen INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Vildor at CHI 30. 22-K.Vildor to CHI 48 for 18 yards (67-E.Ingram).
Swing −17.9 for VikingsExpected points −5.88 for VikingsThe model had Bears 6 points higher than the market did.play 129
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 12:54CHI +18% win prob(12:54) 8-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 19-A.Thielen INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Vildor at CHI 30. 22-K.Vildor to CHI 48 for 18 yards (67-E.Ingram).
4th · 2:45MIN +13% win prob(2:45) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 2-A.Mattison to CHI 2 for 11 yards (31-Ja.Jones, 58-R.Smith).
4th · 5:42MIN +12% win prob(5:42) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 84-I.Smith to CHI 35 for 13 yards (58-R.Smith; 31-Ja.Jones).
4th · 9:31MIN +11% win prob(9:31) 2-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
4th · 2:29MIN +11% win prob(2:29) 8-K.Cousins up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 12:59MIN +8% win prob(12:59) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 18-J.Jefferson. PENALTY on CHI-31-Ja.Jones, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 47 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kirk Cousins's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 2:29 left in the 4th put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
3rd1:09Cairo Santos·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.Scales+319–21
4th9:31Cairo Santos·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.Scales+322–21
4th2:29Kirk Cousins·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+822–29
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryVikings
Bears0–8Vikings
271Total yards433
5.6Yards per play6.0
38%Success rate58%
40%Third-down rate80%
2Red-zone touchdowns4
5Explosive plays6
16First downs29
2Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Vikings ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Bears: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.23Vikings: +0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.24Bears: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.34Vikings: +0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.36Bears: −0.36 expected points added per play
+0.06Vikings: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 48 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Vikings’s 72 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Bears 2, Vikings 4.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's early-down pass rate, 55.6%, is past their previous high of 48.9% in week 4 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
36 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 8.1%, and they swing ±3.4 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Vikings10.0%
right on their number · −1.8 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteCHI's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 6.9%, 17.6 points below their season mean of 24.5% and 2.0 times their own 8.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 3 never used
67Sam MustipherC · Every snap100%50 snaps
76Teven JenkinsT · Every snap100%50 snaps
70Braxton JonesT · Every snap100%50 snaps
62Lucas PatrickG · Every snap100%50 snaps
75Larry BoromT · Every snap100%50 snaps
1Justin FieldsQB · Every snap100%50 snaps
11Darnell MooneyWR · Full-time94%47 snaps
85Cole KmetTE · Full-time90%45 snaps
32David MontgomeryRB · Heavy rotation72%36 snaps
19Equanimeous St. BrownWR · Heavy rotation62%31 snaps
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass−25% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(12:54) 8-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 19-A.Thielen INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Vildor at CHI 30. 22-K.Vildor to CHI 48 for 18 yards (67-E.Ingram).
Q4 12:54 · Vikings · 1st & 10 at CHI 42 · gained nothing · -5.88 EP · −25.5% win probability
156 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, manual charting on 140. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 86 yards from the MIN 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
45%
Yards
702
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR62+0.3560%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.2363%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.4122%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.2738%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.0860%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Bears0Vikings6
Bears0Vikings7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Vikings 14 to the Bears 1
Bears3Vikings7
Field goal10 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Vikings 26
The period ended12 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Bears 20
2nd quarter53 plays
Bears3Vikings13
Bears3Vikings14
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays
Bears3Vikings20
Bears3Vikings21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Vikings 29 to the Bears 1
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 41
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Bears 48
Bears9Vikings21
Bears10Vikings21
Touchdown5 plays, from midfield to the Vikings 9
The period ended1 play
No good11 plays, from the Vikings 24 to the Bears 36
3rd quarter34 plays
Bears16Vikings21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bears 33 to the Vikings 9
No good8 plays, from the Bears 48 to the Bears 33
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Bears19Vikings21
Field goal12 plays, from the Bears 41 to the Vikings 25
The period ended4 plays, from the Vikings 34 to the Vikings 47
4th quarter43 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Vikings 37 to the Bears 42
Bears22Vikings21
Field goal7 plays, from the Bears 48 to the Vikings 33
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Bears22Vikings27
Bears22Vikings29
Touchdown22 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Bears 1
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 46
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
