2022 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 9, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium
Cincinnati Bengals
17
Baltimore RavensWinner
19
Baltimore Ravens 19–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, BAL +19% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(:03) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 0:03BAL +19% win prob(:03) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
- Q3 · 2:48CIN +14% win prob(2:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short middle to 17-S.Morgan.
- Q4 · 1:10BAL +13% win prob(1:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to CIN 36 for 19 yards (94-S.Hubbard).
- Q3 · 12:31CIN +11% win prob(12:31) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 6-P.Queen at BAL 43. 6-P.Queen to CIN 46 for 11 yards (28-J.Mixon).
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 8:07BAL Field goal
(8:07) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: CIN 0 — BAL 3 - Q2 · 13:31BAL Touchdown
(13:31) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 0 — BAL 10 - Q2 · 5:02CIN Touchdown
(5:02) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 88-H.Hurst for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 7 — BAL 10 - Q2 · 0:08CIN Field goal
(:08) 2-E.McPherson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.
Score after this play: CIN 10 — BAL 10 - Q3 · 10:54BAL Field goal
(10:54) 9-J.Tucker 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: CIN 10 — BAL 13 - Q4 · 9:46BAL Field goal
(9:46) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: CIN 10 — BAL 16 - Q4 · 2:00CIN Touchdown
(2:00) 9-J.Burrow right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 17 — BAL 16 - Q4 · 0:03BAL Field goal
(:03) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: CIN 17 — BAL 19
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Bengals | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 59 | 60 |
| Total yards | 291 | 326 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.9 | 5.4 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.07 | -0.04 (edge) |
| Success rate | 46% | 47% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 64% | 58% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.18 (edge) | -0.21 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.15 | 0.18 (edge) |
| Third downs | 4/10 | 5/11 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 4 | 8 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 17 | 19 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 3 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · CIN
24/35, 217 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-4.3 expected points added · -1.5% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
19/32, 174 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-5.7 expected points added · +4.6% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | CIN 25 | 6 | 17 | 2:03 | Punt | |
| 2 | BAL | BAL 30 | 10 | 39 | 4:54 | Field goal +3 | |
| 3 | CIN | CIN 31 | 5 | -10 | 2:08 | Punt | |
| 4 | BAL | BAL 32 | 7 | 26 | 3:04 | Punt | |
| 5 | CIN | CIN 9 | 4 | 7 | 1:30 | Punt | |
| 6 | BAL | 50 | 8 | 50 | 2:55 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 7 | CIN | CIN 22 | 5 | 8 | 2:11 | Punt | |
| 8 | BAL | BAL 29 | 4 | 28 | 1:57 | Interception | |
| 9 | CIN | CIN 17 | 8 | 88 | 4:24 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 10 | BAL | BAL 25 | 7 | 23 | 3:00 | Punt | |
| 11 | CIN | CIN 16 | 11 | 62 | 1:50 | Field goal +3 | |
| 12 | BAL | BAL 24 | 2 | 0 | 0:04 | End of half | |
| 13 | BAL | BAL 40 | 7 | 19 | 2:29 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | CIN | CIN 41 | 1 | 0 | 0:07 | Interception | |
| 15 | BAL | CIN 46 | 4 | 6 | 1:35 | Field goal +3 | |
| 16 | CIN | CIN 25 | 16 | 49 | 8:04 | Turnover on downs | |
| 17 | BAL | BAL 2 | 15 | 90 | 8:03 | Field goal +3 | |
| 18 | CIN | CIN 25 | 15 | 70 | 7:44 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 19 | BAL | BAL 25 | 8 | 45 | 1:58 | Field goal +3 |
8 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 90 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a field goal.
Full stat lines
Box score
Cincinnati Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 24/35 | 217 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4.3 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 14 | 78 | 5.6 | 0 | 3.3 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden Hurst | 6 | 7 | 53 | 1 | 21% | 2.6 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 7 | 12 | 50 | 0 | 35% | -5.7 |
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 12% | 3.3 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 9% | 1.3 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 12% | 1.7 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 9% | -1.0 |
| Stanley Morgan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -3.2 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germaine Pratt | 2 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jessie Bates | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vonn Bell | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Chidobe Awuzie | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Wilson | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Hubbard | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eli Apple | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hilton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trey Hendrickson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Baltimore Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 19/32 | 174 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -5.7 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 | -0.1 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 0 | 1.2 |
| Kenyan Drake | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Devin Duvernay | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 | 1.5 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.3 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 8 | 10 | 89 | 1 | 37% | 6.9 |
| Devin Duvernay | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 | 26% | 1.1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 7% | -2.4 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 7% | -3.1 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | -1.2 |
| James Proche | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | -0.4 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4% | -2.7 |
| Josh Oliver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -0.5 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Queen | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Chuck Clark | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Bynes | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Peters | 5 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malik Harrison | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damarion Williams | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Odafe Oweh | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brent Urban | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Williams | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- BAL -3
- Closing total
- 47.5
- CIN moneyline
- +151
- BAL moneyline
- -168
Ravens closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 36 — under by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- M&T Bank Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- —
- Referee
- Scott Novak
- Rest
- CIN 10 days · BAL 7 days
- Coaches
- Zac Taylor vs John Harbaugh
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.