For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Bengals154 of 166 plays carry both curves
(:03) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Swing +19.3 for RavensExpected points +0.60 for RavensThe model had Bengals 11 points higher than the market did.play 164
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03BAL +19% win prob(:03) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
3rd · 2:48CIN +14% win prob(2:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short middle to 17-S.Morgan.
4th · 1:10BAL +13% win prob(1:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to CIN 36 for 19 yards (94-S.Hubbard).
3rd · 12:31CIN +11% win prob(12:31) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 6-P.Queen at BAL 43. 6-P.Queen to CIN 46 for 11 yards (28-J.Mixon).
4th · 3:21BAL +11% win prob(3:21) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase to BAL 5 for 13 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
3rd · 8:14BAL +9% win prob(8:14) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 1-J.Chase. PENALTY on BAL-24-M.Peters, Defensive Pass Interference, 18 yards, enforced at CIN 44 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Tucker's 43-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:07Justin Tucker·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+30–3
4th0:03Justin Tucker·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.MooreLead never changed again+317–19
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryRavens
Bengals1–7Ravens
291Total yards326
4.9Yards per play5.4
46%Success rate47%
40%Third-down rate45%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays8
17First downs19
3Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Ravens ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Bengals: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.04Ravens: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.18Bengals: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.21Ravens: −0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.15Bengals: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.18Ravens: +0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 59 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Ravens’s 60 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 3, Ravens 3.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CIN's blitz rate sent, 42.9%, is past their previous high of 27.5% in week 1 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.5-swing turn from week 4.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 29 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Ravens13.2%
right on their number · −1.5 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteCIN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 42.9%, 22.2 points above their season mean of 20.7% and 2.1 times their own 10.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Justin Tucker+30% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q4 0:03 · Ravens · 1st & 10 at CIN 25 · gained nothing · +0.60 EP · +30.0% win probability
152 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, manual charting on 140. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 95 yards from the BAL 2 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
44%
Yards
616
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59-0.0764%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR18-0.2250%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR15+0.0927%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.0767%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR10+0.1580%
Ravens0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 42
Bengals0Ravens3
Field goal10 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Bengals 19
Punt5 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Bengals 46
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 9 to the Bengals 16
The period ended4 plays, from midfield to the Bengals 21
2nd quarter50 plays
Bengals0Ravens9
Bengals0Ravens10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Bengals 11
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 22 to the Bengals 30
Intercepted4 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Bengals 43
Bengals6Ravens10
Bengals7Ravens10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bengals 17 to the Ravens 19
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 44
Bengals10Ravens10
Field goal14 plays, from the Bengals 16 to the Ravens 22
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Ravens 40 to the Bengals 41
Intercepted1 play
Bengals10Ravens13
Field goal4 plays, from the Bengals 46 to the Bengals 40
How the play was built
A trick play, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSix
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a trick play, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, caught in traffic.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Turnover on downs18 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Ravens 2
The period ended6 plays, from the Ravens 2 to the Ravens 33
4th quarter41 plays
Bengals10Ravens16
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 36 to the Bengals 3
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Bengals16Ravens16
Bengals17Ravens16
Touchdown16 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Ravens 1
Bengals17Ravens19
Field goal13 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bengals 25
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -3
Closing total
47.5
Bengals moneyline
+151
Ravens moneyline
-168
Ravens closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 36 — under by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 52°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Bengals 10 days · Ravens 7 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs John Harbaugh
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 4:25
BAL +9% win prob
(4:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to 88-H.Hurst. PENALTY on BAL-14-K.Hamilton, Defensive Pass Interference, 6 yards, enforced at BAL 8 - No Play.
3rd · 4:18CIN +9% win prob(4:18) (Shotgun) 83-T.Boyd sacked at BAL 14 for -12 yards (24-M.Peters).
