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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 9, 2022 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 5
It turned at Q1 13:36, 3rd and 1, on Matthew Stafford — 21.3 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:36 · 3rd and 1
Matthew Stafford
Cowboys
(13:36) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 24 for -10 yards (92-D.Armstrong). FUMBLES (92-D.Armstrong) [92-D.Armstrong], touched at LA 23, RECOVERED by DAL-90-D.Lawrence at LA 19. 90-D.Lawrence for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dallas Cowboys 22–10. Biggest swing: Q1 13:36, Cowboys +21.3% win probability on one snap.
21.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — no giveaways, against Rams at 3 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.02 expected points per carry, against Rams at -0.35 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — -0.12 expected points per snap, against Rams at -0.27 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 37% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Rams at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
(13:36) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 24 for -10 yards (92-D.Armstrong). FUMBLES (92-D.Armstrong) [92-D.Armstrong], touched at LA 23, RECOVERED by DAL-90-D.Lawrence at LA 19. 90-D.Lawrence for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tony Pollard's 57-yard rushing touchdown with 8:10 left in the 2nd put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Demarcus Lawrence19-yd defence TD19-yard touchdownthe defence scored it · two-point no good+66–07 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cowboyscategory by categoryRams
Cowboys ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 51 snaps at a 37% dropback rate against Rams’s 64 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 3, Rams 2.
Rams outgained Cowboys 323-242 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's early-down pass rate, 25.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 5 — 10.7 points clear of the next team along.
36 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
LA's blitz rate sent, 47.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 5 — 1.2 points clear of the next team along.
19 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points.
LA's sack or hit rate, 36.8%, is past their previous high of 18.2% in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
19 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
DAL's pass rate over expected, −14.6 pts, is past their previous low of −9.2 pts in week 2 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
50 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Cowboys-14.6 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.4 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−1.68× that swing) · 50 snaps
Rams1.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 64 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 83%
Tendencies room →Cowboys25.0%off script — ran early · −24.2 vs their 49.2%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−2.41× that swing) · 36 early downs
Rams69.6%leaned — passed early · +12.6 vs their 57.0%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+1.25× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 60%
Tendencies room →Cowboys15.8%inside their normal wobble · −8.9 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
Rams12.2%leaned — dropped back clean · −16.2 vs their 28.5%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -52% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Cowboys0.0%leaned — took the kick · −29.3 vs their 29.3%, and they swing ±27.5 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Rams25.0%right on their number · −12.8 vs their 37.8%, and they swing ±35.2 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 57%
Tendencies room →Cowboys20.4%right on their number · −4.1 vs their 24.5%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Rams47.4%leaned — sent pressure · +19.0 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (+1.70× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 40%
Tendencies room →Cowboys24.5%inside their normal wobble · +7.7 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Rams36.8%off script — got home · +22.7 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+2.63× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
LA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 36.8%, 22.7 points above their season mean of 14.1% and 2.6 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · LA
28/42, 308 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-14.4 expected points added · -1.2% completion over expected
Passing · DAL
10/16, 102 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-6.7 expected points added · -5.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Tony Pollard banked 10.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony PollardRB | 14.6 | +10.8 | 42% | 42% | 0% | — | 8 car, 86 yd, 1 TD |
| CeeDee LambWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.3 | −1.7 | 93% | 100% | 50% | 52% | 5/8, 53 yd |
| Michael GallupWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.4 | +1.5 | 55% | 89% | 31% | 35% | 4/5, 44 yd |
| Ezekiel ElliottRB · Bell Cow Back | 7.8 | −2.2 | 65% | 63% | 0% | — | 22 car, 78 yd |
| Cooper RushQB · Starter QB | 4.0 | −1.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 10/16, 102 yd · 4 car, -1 yd |
| Noah BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.4 | 76% | 84% | 13% | 9% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 18% | 32% | 6% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Peyton HendershotTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 67% | 58% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Kavontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:36) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 24 for -10 yards (92-D.Armstrong). FUMBLES (92-D.Armstrong) [92-D.Armstrong], touched at LA 23, RECOVERED by DAL-90-D.Lawrence at LA 19. 90-D.Lawrence for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 13:36 · Rams · 3rd & 1 at LA 34 · lost 11 · -9.03 EP · −24.4% win probability
152 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, manual charting on 141. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 83 yards from the LA 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Cowboys6
Rams0Cowboys9Rams0Cowboys9Rams3How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Cowboys9Rams9Cowboys9Rams10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Cowboys15Rams10Cowboys16Rams10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Cowboys19Rams10Cowboys22Rams10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cowboys at Rams, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 10/16 | 102 | 0 | 0 | 3 | −6.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 8 | 86 | 10.8 | 1 | +5.7 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 22 | 78 | 3.5 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Cooper Rush | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 8 | 53 | 0 | 50% | −0.2 |
| Michael Gallup | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 31% | +1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Wilson | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevon Diggs | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Barr | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Brown |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 28/42 | 308 | 1 | 1 | 5 | −14.4 |
| Riley Dixon | 1/1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.6 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_05_DAL_LA
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Rams closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42; the game landed 32 — under by 10.0.
Conditions and crew
| Noah Brown | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 13% | −1.2 |
| Dalton Schultz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.3 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Leighton Vander Esch | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Parsons | 3 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jourdan Lewis | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jayron Kearse | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Hooker | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Neville Gallimore | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 13 | 33 | 2.5 | 0 | −4.4 |
| Cooper Kupp | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 7 | 10 | 125 | 1 | 24% | +6.1 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 2 | 54 | 0 | 5% | +1.2 |
| Tyler Higbee | 7 | 10 | 46 | 0 | 24% | +2.5 |
| Ben Skowronek | 6 | 8 | 41 | 0 | 19% | −2.2 |
| Darrell Henderson | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 12% | +0.1 |
| Allen Robinson | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 12% | −5.0 |
| Jake Gervase | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 2% | +2.6 |
| Cam Akers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Burgess | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A'Shawn Robinson | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Donald | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ernest Jones | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Wagner | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marquise Copeland | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Gaines | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derion Kendrick | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Hollins | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
