2022 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 9, 2022 · Gillette Stadium

Detroit Lions

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -3 ✓U 46.5 ✓Patriots closed -3 and covered, winning by 29.

New England Patriots 29–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:38, DET +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 5:38DET 0 — NE 3DET ball · 1st & 10NE 53%

(5:38) 16-J.Goff pass short left intended for 88-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 13-Ja.Jones at NE 3. 13-Ja.Jones ran ob at NE 3 for no gain.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 5:38DET +15% win prob(5:38) 16-J.Goff pass short left intended for 88-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 13-Ja.Jones at NE 3. 13-Ja.Jones ran ob at NE 3 for no gain.
Q2 · 3:40DET +14% win prob(3:40) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at NE 45 for -13 yards (9-M.Judon). FUMBLES (9-M.Judon) [9-M.Judon], RECOVERED by NE-23-K.Dugger at NE 41. 23-K.Dugger for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 4:27DET +8% win prob(4:27) (Shotgun) 46-C.Reynolds right end to NE 32 for -7 yards (21-A.Phillips).
Q2 · 6:30NE +8% win prob(6:30) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 11-K.Raymond to NE 33 for 20 yards (32-D.McCourty).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:50NE Field goal
(8:50) 6-N.Folk 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 59th consecutive FG under 50 yds, extends NFL record.
Score after this play: DET 0 — NE 3
Q2 · 14:19NE Field goal
(14:19) 6-N.Folk 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: DET 0 — NE 6
Q2 · 3:40NE Touchdown
(3:40) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at NE 45 for -13 yards (9-M.Judon). FUMBLES (9-M.Judon) [9-M.Judon], RECOVERED by NE-23-K.Dugger at NE 41. 23-K.Dugger for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 0 — NE 13
Q2 · 0:05NE Field goal
(:05) 6-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: DET 0 — NE 16
Q3 · 10:13NE Field goal
(10:13) 6-N.Folk 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: DET 0 — NE 19
Q3 · 1:57NE Touchdown
(1:57) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass deep right to 16-J.Meyers for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 0 — NE 26
Q4 · 5:05NE Field goal
(5:05) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: DET 0 — NE 29

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Patriots
Offensive plays	63	54
Total yards	313	369 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0	6.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.44	0.08 (edge)
Success rate	38%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	62%	41%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.55	0.29 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25	-0.07 (edge)
Third downs	4/12	3/8 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	8
First downs gained on snaps	15	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.44.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

19/35, 229 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-20.7 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Bailey ZappeQB

17/21, 188 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

6.6 expected points added · +13.2% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

25 att, 161 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Jamaal WilliamsRB

15 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Jakobi MeyersWR

7/8 for 111 yds, 1 TD

38% of team targets · 8.8 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Josh ReynoldsWR

6/10 for 92 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · -1.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DET	DET 25	8	20	3:51	Turnover on downs
2	NE	DET 45	6	26	2:22	Field goal +3
3	DET	DET 25	7	57	3:15	Interception
4	NE	NE 3	11	89	6:18	Field goal +3
5	DET	DET 47	9	8	4:11	Punt
6	NE	NE 13	4	22	2:31	Interception
7	DET	50	8	19	4:06	Defensive touchdown
8	DET	DET 25	5	5	1:40	Punt
9	NE	NE 13	6	49	1:46	Field goal +3
10	NE	NE 25	10	31	4:51	Field goal +3
11	DET	DET 25	9	41	3:35	Turnover on downs
12	NE	NE 34	9	66	4:43	Touchdown +7
13	DET	DET 23	12	73	3:39	Turnover on downs
14	NE	NE 6	5	6	1:59	Punt
15	DET	DET 35	6	33	1:53	Turnover on downs
16	NE	NE 32	7	57	4:19	Field goal +3
17	DET	DET 25	8	57	1:59	Turnover on downs
18	NE	NE 18	7	23	2:40	Punt
19	DET	DET 30	1	0	0:22	End of game

6 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 89 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	19/35	229	0	1	2	-20.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jamaal Williams	15	56	3.7	-2.2
Craig Reynolds	6	24	4.0	-1.1
Justin Jackson	3	14	4.7	-2.7
Jared Goff	3	7	2.3	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Josh Reynolds	6	10	92	32%	-1.1
Craig Reynolds	3	3	68	10%	4.9
Kalif Raymond	5	7	45	23%	1.8
Amon-Ra St. Brown	4	6	18	19%	-6.4
T.J. Hockenson	1	4	6	13%	-5.7
Justin Jackson	0	1	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
DeShon Elliott	10	2	1	1
Alex Anzalone	3	3	0	1
Austin Bryant	4	1	0	0
Isaiah Buggs	2	3	0	0
A.J. Parker	3	1	0	0
Malcolm Rodriguez	2	2	0	0
Mike Hughes	3	1	0	0
Bobby Price	2	1	0	0
Derrick Barnes	2	0	0	0
Aidan Hutchinson	2	0	0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bailey Zappe	17/21	188	1	1	0	6.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	25	161	6.4	0.9
Damien Harris	4	11	2.8	-0.8
Bailey Zappe	5	5	1.0	-1.6
Kendrick Bourne	1	-1	-1.0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jakobi Meyers	7	8	111	1	38%	8.8
Hunter Henry	4	5	54	0	24%	4.2
Rhamondre Stevenson	2	2	14	0	10%	-0.1
Tyquan Thornton	2	3	7	0	14%	-1.0
Damien Harris	1	1	1	0	5%	-0.6
Kendrick Bourne	1	1	1	0	5%	-0.9
Nelson Agholor	0	1	0	0	5%	-3.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kyle Dugger	1	4	0.0	0	0
Jonathan Jones	4	0	0.0	0	0
Deatrich Wise	3	1	0.0	0	0
Adrian Phillips	1	3	0.0	0	0
Jahlani Tavai	2	2	0.0	0	0
Raekwon McMillan	2	1	0.0	0	0
Anfernee Jennings	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jack Jones	3	0	0.0	1	2
Matt Judon	2	1	2.0	0	0
Jalen Mills	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -3
Closing total: 46.5
DET moneyline: +133
NE moneyline: -148

Patriots closed -3 and covered, winning by 29.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 29 — under by 17.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: DET 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Dan Campbell vs Bill Belichick