2022 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 9, 2022 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Houston TexansWinner
13
Jacksonville Jaguars
6
Houston Texans 13–6. Biggest swing: Q4 7:26, JAX +17% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(7:26) (Shotgun) PENALTY on JAX-44-T.Walker, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 47 - No Play. Penalty on JAX-44-T.Walker, Neutral Zone Infraction, declined.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 7:26JAX +17% win prob(7:26) (Shotgun) PENALTY on JAX-44-T.Walker, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 47 - No Play. Penalty on JAX-44-T.Walker, Neutral Zone Infraction, declined.
- Q3 · 10:12HOU +14% win prob(10:12) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right intended for 7-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Stingley at HOU -7. 24-D.Stingley to HOU 2 for 9 yards (16-T.Lawrence).
- Q4 · 5:02JAX +11% win prob(5:02) 31-D.Pierce up the middle to JAX 2 for 20 yards (91-D.Smoot, 5-A.Cisco).
- Q4 · 8:27JAX +10% win prob(8:27) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep left to 12-N.Collins to JAX 43 for 23 yards (32-T.Campbell). Penalty on JAX-32-T.Campbell, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 1:25JAX Field goal
(1:25) 10-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: HOU 0 — JAX 3 - Q2 · 12:29HOU Field goal
(12:29) 7-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: HOU 3 — JAX 3 - Q2 · 3:28HOU Field goal
(3:28) 7-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: HOU 6 — JAX 3 - Q2 · 0:11JAX Field goal
(:11) 10-R.Patterson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. Penalty on HOU-1-T.Smith, Defensive Offside, declined.
Score after this play: HOU 6 — JAX 6 - Q4 · 3:14HOU Touchdown
(3:14) 31-D.Pierce up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 13 — JAX 6
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Texans | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 55 | 72 |
| Total yards | 249 | 422 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.5 | 5.9 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.06 (edge) | -0.11 |
| Success rate | 40% | 42% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 45% | 68% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.10 (edge) | -0.10 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.03 (edge) | -0.13 |
| Third downs | 5/13 | 6/14 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 | 9 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 13 | 21 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 1 | 0 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 3 |
Jaguars outgained Texans 422–249 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · JAX
25/47, 286 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-7.8 expected points added · -10.7% completion over expected
Passing · HOU
16/24, 140 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-2.5 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | HOU 25 | 5 | 4 | 1:02 | Punt | |
| 2 | JAX | JAX 20 | 4 | 1 | 1:37 | Punt | |
| 3 | HOU | HOU 31 | 5 | 21 | 2:08 | Punt | |
| 4 | JAX | JAX 3 | 7 | 54 | 3:03 | Punt | |
| 5 | HOU | HOU 4 | 5 | 22 | 1:45 | Punt | |
| 6 | JAX | JAX 32 | 11 | 60 | 4:03 | Field goal +3 | |
| 7 | HOU | HOU 25 | 9 | 44 | 3:58 | Field goal +3 | |
| 8 | JAX | JAX 8 | 9 | 55 | 4:17 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | HOU | HOU 37 | 8 | 30 | 4:44 | Field goal +3 | |
| 10 | JAX | JAX 23 | 10 | 66 | 3:17 | Field goal +3 | |
| 11 | HOU | HOU 25 | 2 | 0 | 0:06 | End of half | |
| 12 | JAX | JAX 25 | 10 | 68 | 4:56 | Interception | |
| 13 | HOU | HOU 2 | 13 | 49 | 8:10 | Punt | |
| 14 | JAX | JAX 9 | 10 | 48 | 4:27 | Turnover on downs | |
| 15 | HOU | HOU 38 | 4 | 4 | 2:06 | Punt | |
| 16 | JAX | JAX 20 | 4 | 0 | 0:22 | Punt | |
| 17 | HOU | HOU 26 | 13 | 74 | 6:48 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 18 | JAX | JAX 14 | 10 | 36 | 1:30 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | HOU | 50 | 4 | 1 | 1:00 | Punt | |
| 20 | JAX | JAX 13 | 7 | 34 | 0:41 | Interception |
5 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 74 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Houston Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 16/24 | 140 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2.5 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 26 | 99 | 3.8 | 1 | -1.9 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 | 1.2 |
| Davis Mills | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | -0.2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 4 | 6 | 65 | 0 | 25% | 2.8 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 8% | 3.6 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 25% | -2.5 |
| Dameon Pierce | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 21% | -2.6 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 13% | -2.3 |
| Mason Schreck | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | 0.3 |
| O.J. Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -0.6 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Stingley | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jalen Pitre | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirksey | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Desmond King | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Jonathan Owens | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garret Wallow | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Steven Nelson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamu Grugier-Hill | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Reeves-Maybin | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasheem Green | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
Jacksonville Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 25/47 | 286 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -7.8 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 10 | 71 | 7.1 | 0 | 2.0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 | 3.3 |
| James Robinson | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 | -5.6 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 0.1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 7 | 11 | 104 | 0 | 25% | 5.4 |
| Evan Engram | 6 | 10 | 69 | 0 | 23% | -1.3 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 11% | 0.9 |
| Dan Arnold | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 5% | 0.8 |
| Chris Manhertz | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 5% | 0.9 |
| James Robinson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 5% | -0.2 |
| Zay Jones | 3 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 18% | -8.9 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 7% | -3.1 |
| Jamal Agnew | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | -0.9 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Lloyd | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Campbell | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Foyesade Oluokun | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquill Griffin | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Peters | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travon Walker | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Claybrooks | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Cisco | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- JAX -7
- Closing total
- 44
- HOU moneyline
- +261
- JAX moneyline
- -304
Jaguars closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44; the game landed 19 — under by 25.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- TIAA Bank Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- —
- Referee
- Ron Torbert
- Rest
- HOU 7 days · JAX 7 days
- Coaches
- Lovie Smith vs Doug Pederson
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.