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polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:14 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 9, 2022 · TIAA Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 5
It turned at Q4 7:26, 3rd and 20 — 17.0 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:26 · 3rd and 20
Unnamed on the sheet
Texans
(7:26) (Shotgun) PENALTY on JAX-44-T.Walker, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 47 - No Play. Penalty on JAX-44-T.Walker, Neutral Zone Infraction, declined.
Houston Texans 13–6. Biggest swing: Q4 7:26, Texans +17.0% win probability on one snap.
17.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Texans won this one — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Jaguars at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Texans won this one — no giveaways, against Jaguars at 3 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Texans at 5 chunk plays.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Texans won this one — -0.03 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.13 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
(7:26) (Shotgun) PENALTY on JAX-44-T.Walker, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 47 - No Play. Penalty on JAX-44-T.Walker, Neutral Zone Infraction, declined.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Dameon Pierce's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 3:14 left in the 4th put Houston Texans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Texanscategory by categoryJaguars
Jaguars ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 55 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 72 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Texans 1, Jaguars 3.
Jaguars outgained Texans 422-249 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's blitz rate sent, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 5 — 5.6 points clear of the next team along.
49 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points.
HOU's early-down pass rate, 38.1%, is past their previous low of 50.0% in week 3 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points.
HOU's pass rate over expected, −10.7 pts, is past their previous low of +0.1 pts in week 1 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
55 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Texans-10.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.3 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−1.13× that swing) · 55 snaps
Jaguars-2.0 ptsright on their number · −2.2 vs their 0.1 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 72 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 86%
Tendencies room →Texans38.1%leaned — ran early · −20.2 vs their 58.2%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−1.84× that swing) · 42 early downs
Jaguars63.6%inside their normal wobble · +6.8 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 55 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 45%
Tendencies room →Texans32.0%inside their normal wobble · +6.9 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Jaguars12.2%inside their normal wobble · −8.3 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 91%
Fourth Down room →Texans0.0%leaned — took the kick · −31.3 vs their 31.3%, and they swing ±23.6 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Jaguars—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.5%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 46%
Tendencies room →Texans0.0%leaned — sat back · −18.2 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−1.67× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Jaguars24.0%right on their number · +3.4 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 39%
Tendencies room →Texans2.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −12.2 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−1.49× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Jaguars20.0%right on their number · +3.2 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
HOU's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 38.1%, 20.2 points below their season mean of 58.2% and 1.8 times their own 11.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · JAX
25/47, 286 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-7.8 expected points added · -10.7% completion over expected
Passing · HOU
16/24, 140 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-2.5 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Jordan Akins banked 1.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon PierceRB · Bell Cow Back | 20.3 | −5.4 | 79% | 64% | 21% | 4% | 26 car, 99 yd, 1 TD · 3/5, 14 yd |
| Marvin JonesWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.4 | −0.9 | 87% | 80% | 25% | 29% | 7/11, 104 yd |
| Travis EtienneRB · Committee Back | 14.4 | +1.8 | 53% | 54% | 11% | 2% | 10 car, 71 yd · 3/5, 43 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Featured Receiver | 12.9 | −5.1 | 75% | 80% | 23% | 25% | 6/10, 69 yd |
| Nico CollinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.5 | +0.6 | 81% | 92% | 25% | 61% | 4/6, 65 yd |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 10.3 | −12.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/47, 286 yd, 2 INT · 4 car, 29 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.0 | −1.3 | 78% | 92% | 25% | 20% | 4/6, 20 yd |
| James RobinsonRB | 5.9 | −3.0 | 41% | 36% | 5% | 0% | 10 car, 27 yd · 2/2, 12 yd |
| Davis MillsQB · Starter QB | 5.8 | −1.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/24, 140 yd · 2 car, 2 yd |
| Rex BurkheadRB · Receiving Back | 4.8 | −0.8 | 21% | 36% | 13% | 0% | 3 car, 15 yd · 2/3, 13 yd |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | +1.8 | 17% | 36% | 8% | 10% | 2/2, 22 yd |
| Zay JonesWR · Featured Receiver | 4.2 | −11.9 | 80% | 78% | 18% | 14% | 3/8, 12 yd |
| Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +0.5 | 35% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 2/2, 15 yd |
| Dan ArnoldTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −0.3 | 11% | 16% | 5% | 4% | 1/2, 20 yd |
| Christian KirkWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −4.5 | 96% | 90% | 7% | 14% | 1/3, 11 yd |
| Mason SchreckTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.1 | 41% | 44% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Jamycal HastyRB | 0.6 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jamal AgnewWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.3 | −1.9 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Troy HairstonRB | 0.0 | — | 38% | 12% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| O.J. HowardTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 79% | 68% | 4% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Phillip DorsettWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 19% | 8% | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:26) (Shotgun) PENALTY on JAX-44-T.Walker, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 47 - No Play. Penalty on JAX-44-T.Walker, Neutral Zone Infraction, declined.
Q4 7:26 · Texans · 3rd & 20 at HOU 47 · gained nothing · +2.51 EP · +18.3% win probability
158 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, manual charting on 150. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 74 yards from the HOU 26 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Texans0
Jaguars3Texans3Jaguars3Texans6Jaguars3Texans6Jaguars6How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, dropped.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Texans12Jaguars6Texans13Jaguars6Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Texans at Jaguars, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 16/24 | 140 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −2.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 26 | 99 | 3.8 | 1 | −1.9 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Davis Mills | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 4 | 6 | 65 | 0 | 25% | +2.8 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 8% | +3.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Stingley | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jalen Pitre | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirksey | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Desmond King |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 25/47 | 286 | 0 | 2 | 0 | −7.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_05_HOU_JAX
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Jaguars closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44; the game landed 19 — under by 25.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 25% | −2.5 |
| Dameon Pierce | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 21% | −2.6 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 13% | −2.3 |
| Mason Schreck | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | +0.3 |
| O.J. Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| Jonathan Owens | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garret Wallow | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Steven Nelson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamu Grugier-Hill | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Reeves-Maybin | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasheem Green | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 |
| 71 |
| 7.1 |
| 0 |
| +2.0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 | +3.3 |
| James Robinson | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 | −5.6 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 7 | 11 | 104 | 0 | 25% | +5.4 |
| Evan Engram | 6 | 10 | 69 | 0 | 23% | −1.3 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 11% | +0.9 |
| Dan Arnold | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 5% | +0.8 |
| Chris Manhertz | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 5% | +0.9 |
| James Robinson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 5% | −0.2 |
| Zay Jones | 3 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 18% | −8.9 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 7% | −3.1 |
| Jamal Agnew | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Lloyd | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Campbell | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Foyesade Oluokun | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquill Griffin | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Peters | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travon Walker | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Claybrooks | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Cisco | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
