2022 Week 5 · Thu, Oct 6, 2022 · Empower Field at Mile High

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

Denver Broncos

DEN -3.5 upsetU 42 ✓Broncos closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Indianapolis Colts 12–9 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 2:38, IND +75% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 2:38IND 12 — DEN 9DEN ball · 4th & 1DEN 75%

(2:38) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 14-C.Sutton (5-S.Gilmore).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 2:38IND +75% win prob(2:38) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 14-C.Sutton (5-S.Gilmore).
OT · 5:16DEN +30% win prob(5:16) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 10-J.Jeudy to IND 14 for 37 yards (34-I.Rodgers).
OT · 5:54IND +17% win prob(5:54) 7-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
OT · 5:50DEN +17% win prob(5:50) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 25-M.Gordon pushed ob at DEN 49 for 24 yards (25-R.Thomas).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:32DEN Field goal
(9:32) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: IND 0 — DEN 3
Q2 · 11:02DEN Field goal
(11:02) 8-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: IND 0 — DEN 6
Q2 · 0:17IND Field goal
(:17) 7-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
Score after this play: IND 3 — DEN 6
Q3 · 8:56IND Field goal
(8:56) 7-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
Score after this play: IND 6 — DEN 6
Q3 · 3:23DEN Field goal
(3:23) 8-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: IND 6 — DEN 9
Q4 · 0:08IND Field goal
(:08) 7-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
Score after this play: IND 9 — DEN 9
OT · 5:54IND Field goal
(5:54) 7-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
Score after this play: IND 12 — DEN 9

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Broncos
Offensive plays	72	69
Total yards	306	377 (edge)
Yards per play	4.3	5.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.20 (edge)	-0.21
Success rate	38%	41% (edge)
Dropback rate	65%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	-0.25 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09 (edge)	-0.14
Third downs	4/16 (edge)	2/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	17
Sacks taken	6	4 (edge)
Turnovers	2	2

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.21.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

21/39, 274 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-13.0 expected points added · -8.4% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Matt RyanQB

26/41, 251 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-11.3 expected points added · +3.0% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Deon JacksonRB

13 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Melvin GordonRB

15 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Alec PierceWR

8/9 for 81 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

5/11 for 74 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · -1.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 25	5	8	1:23	Punt
2	DEN	DEN 36	10	49	4:09	Field goal +3
3	IND	IND 25	6	24	3:03	Punt
4	DEN	DEN 14	4	-4	1:10	Punt
5	IND	IND 40	4	1	1:03	Punt
6	DEN	DEN 13	4	5	1:31	Punt
7	IND	IND 32	4	-1	2:29	Punt
8	DEN	DEN 34	10	45	4:14	Field goal +3
9	IND	IND 25	10	55	5:19	Interception
10	DEN	DEN 38	5	9	1:51	Punt
11	IND	IND 15	14	57	3:36	Field goal +3
12	DEN	DEN 13	2	0	0:12	End of half
13	DEN	DEN 25	6	11	2:12	Punt
14	IND	IND 34	9	34	3:57	Field goal +3
15	DEN	DEN 25	9	59	4:21	Missed field goal
16	IND	IND 24	3	-5	0:52	Interception
17	DEN	IND 27	4	0	0:19	Field goal +3
18	IND	IND 25	5	4	1:27	Punt
19	DEN	DEN 22	7	48	2:45	Interception
20	IND	IND 39	6	11	3:23	Punt
21	DEN	DEN 20	4	8	2:11	Punt
22	IND	IND 29	4	5	1:46	Punt
23	DEN	DEN 15	11	77	4:34	Interception
24	IND	IND 20	10	68	2:08	Field goal +3
25	DEN	DEN 25	2	0	0:05	Turnover on downs
26	IND	IND 25	9	45	4:10	Field goal +3
27	DEN	DEN 25	7	70	3:17	Turnover on downs

7 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 77 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a interception.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	26/41	251	0	2	6	-11.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Deon Jackson	13	62	4.8	-0.4
Phillip Lindsay	11	40	3.6	-1.5
Nyheim Miller-Hines	1	3	3.0	-0.4
Matt Ryan	1	1	1.0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Alec Pierce	8	9	81	25%	7.8
Michael Pittman	5	8	59	22%	-0.2
Deon Jackson	4	4	29	11%	-0.8
Parris Campbell	2	3	22	8%	0.7
Ashton Dulin	1	1	18	3%	1.9
Kylen Granson	1	3	16	8%	-5.4
Phillip Lindsay	3	4	14	11%	0.5
Mo Alie-Cox	1	1	7	3%	-0.4
Nyheim Miller-Hines	1	2	5	6%	-1.6
Jelani Woods	0	1	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Bobby Okereke	6	3	0.0	0	0
Zaire Franklin	3	5	0.0	0	1
DeForest Buckner	3	4	2.0	0	1
Isaiah Rodgers	5	1	0.0	0	0
Rodney Thomas	2	3	0.0	1	2
Rodney McLeod	4	1	0.0	0	0
Stephon Gilmore	4	1	0.0	1	2
Kenny Moore	5	0	0.0	0	1
Dayo Odeyingbo	1	3	0.5	0	0
Yannick Ngakoue	1	1	1.5	0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	21/39	274	0	2	4	-13.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Melvin Gordon	15	54	3.6	-2.4
Mike Boone	7	38	5.4	-1.1
Russell Wilson	4	22	5.5	1.8
Montrell Washington	1	9	9.0	0.7
Devine Ozigbo	1	2	2.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Courtland Sutton	5	11	74	29%	-1.6
Jerry Jeudy	3	8	53	21%	-0.4
Melvin Gordon	3	3	49	8%	2.9
Mike Boone	3	3	47	8%	1.4
Eric Saubert	5	7	36	18%	0.3
K.J. Hamler	1	2	10	5%	-3.5
Albert Okwuegbunam	1	1	5	3%	0.1
Andrew Beck	0	1	0	3%	-0.7
Tyrie Cleveland	0	1	0	3%	-3.9
Eric Tomlinson	0	1	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Alex Singleton	5	4	0.0	0
Josey Jewell	0	7	0.5	0
Bradley Chubb	4	3	2.5	0
Patrick Surtain	4	3	0.0	0
Kareem Jackson	3	4	0.0	0
Damarri Mathis	6	0	0.0	0
Baron Browning	2	3	1.5	0
K'Waun Williams	3	2	0.0	1
D.J. Jones	3	1	1.0	0
Jonas Griffith	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -3.5
Closing total: 42
IND moneyline: +159
DEN moneyline: -178

Broncos closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42; the game landed 21 — under by 21.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: IND 4 days · DEN 4 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Nathaniel Hackett