For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Colts190 of 204 plays carry both curves
(2:38) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 14-C.Sutton (5-S.Gilmore).
Swing −75.2 for BroncosExpected points −3.29 for BroncosModel and market agree here.play 201
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 2:38IND +75% win prob(2:38) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 14-C.Sutton (5-S.Gilmore).
Overtime · 5:16DEN +30% win prob(5:16) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 10-J.Jeudy to IND 14 for 37 yards (34-I.Rodgers).
Overtime · 5:54IND +17% win prob(5:54) 7-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
Overtime · 5:50DEN +17% win prob(5:50) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 25-M.Gordon pushed ob at DEN 49 for 24 yards (25-R.Thomas).
Overtime · 9:30DEN +16% win prob(9:30) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 83-K.Granson pushed ob at IND 42 for 16 yards (22-K.Jackson).
4th · 2:19IND +14% win prob(2:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle intended for 16-T.Cleveland INTERCEPTED by 5-S.Gilmore at IND -5. Touchback.
Overtime · 3:12
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chase McLaughlin's 48-yard field goal with 5:54 left in overtime put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:32Brandon McManus·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap J.Bobenmoyer+30–3
2nd11:02Brandon McManus·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap J.Bobenmoyer+30–6
2nd0:17Chase McLaughlin·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap L.Rhodes+33–6
3rd8:56Chase McLaughlin·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap L.Rhodes+36–6
3rd3:23Brandon McManus·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap J.Bobenmoyer+36–9
4th0:08Chase McLaughlin·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap L.Rhodes+39–9
Overtime5:54Chase McLaughlin·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap L.RhodesLead never changed again+312–9
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryBroncos
Colts1–5Broncos
306Total yards377
4.3Yards per play5.5
38%Success rate41%
25%Third-down rate13%
0Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays7
17First downs17
6Sacks taken4
2Turnovers2
The read
Broncos ahead 5–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.20Colts: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.21Broncos: −0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.26Colts: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.25Broncos: −0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Colts: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.14Broncos: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 72 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Broncos’s 69 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Colts 2, Broncos 4.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
IND's play-action rate, 4.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 5 — 1.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 11.4% in week 2.
A 3.0-swing turn from week 4.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
DEN's sack or hit rate, 25.5%, is past their previous high of 21.2% in week 3 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
2.4 times their own weekly swing above their number.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
high through week 5Against their seasonOver Expected
DEN's pass rate over expected, +9.5 pts, is past their previous high of +2.8 pts in week 1 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.2-swing turn from week 4.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · +1.6 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Broncos25.5%
off script — got home · +13.4 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+2.43× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
NoteDEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.5%, 13.4 points above their season mean of 12.1% and 2.4 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
R.Wilson pass−75% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:38) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 14-C.Sutton (5-S.Gilmore).
OT 2:38 · Broncos · 4th & 1 at IND 5 · gained nothing · -3.29 EP · −75.2% win probability
188 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 204 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 204 snaps, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 72 yards from the DEN 15 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
204 of 204 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
204
EPA per play
-0.16
Success rate
36%
Yards
681
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.1975%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.4876%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25+0.1536%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.2436%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
snapsepapass rate
204 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
204 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 33
Colts0Broncos3
Field goal10 plays, from the Broncos 36 to the Colts 13
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Broncos 49
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 40 to the Colts 41
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 13 to the Broncos 18
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Colts 40
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
Colts0Broncos6
Field goal10 plays, from the Broncos 40 to the Colts 26
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.3 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Broncos 24
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 38 to the Colts 44
Colts3Broncos6
Field goal18 plays, from the Colts 15 to the Broncos 15
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 36
Colts6Broncos6
Field goal9 plays, from the Colts 34 to the Broncos 31
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
No good9 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Colts 9
Intercepted3 plays
Colts6Broncos9
Field goal4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 29
The period ended5 plays, from the Broncos 22 to the Broncos 34
4th quarter53 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted4 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFive
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 39 to the Broncos 37
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 28
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 29 to the Colts 34
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
The period ended15 plays, from the Broncos 15 to the Colts 13
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, thrown away.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Colts9Broncos9
Field goal14 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Broncos 8
The period ended3 plays
Overtime19 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Colts12Broncos9
Field goal9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Broncos 30
How the play was built
A screen, play action, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Colts 5
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
