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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
Los Angeles Chargers 30 at Cleveland Browns 28. Final.
Chargers -1 ✓O 47 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 5
Los Angeles Chargers 30, Browns 28 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:14, 4th and 1, on Justin Herbert — 31.7 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:14 · 4th and 1
Justin Herbert
Browns
(1:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 81-M.Williams (23-M.Emerson).
Chargers closed -1 and covered, winning by 2.
Los Angeles Chargers 30–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:14, Browns +31.7% win probability on one snap.
31.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Alohi GilmanChargersQ4 2:55(2:55) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 32-A.Gilman at LAC -1. 32-A.Gilman to LAC 17 for 18 yards (7-J.Brissett; 18-Dav.Bell).
31.5pts
Cade YorkChargersQ4 0:16(:16) 3-C.York 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
27.0pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.40 expected points per carry, against Browns at +0.05 expected points per carry.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Chargers at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Chargers won this one — no giveaways, against Browns at 1 giveaway.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 4 of 10 on third down, against Chargers at 3 of 10 on third down.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Chargers169 of 179 plays carry both curves
(1:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 81-M.Williams (23-M.Emerson).
Swing +31.7 for BrownsExpected points +2.00 for BrownsThe model had Browns 4 points higher than the market did.play 170
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:14LAC +32% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 81-M.Williams (23-M.Emerson).
4th · 2:55LAC +32% win prob(2:55) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 32-A.Gilman at LAC -1. 32-A.Gilman to LAC 17 for 18 yards (7-J.Brissett; 18-Dav.Bell).
4th · 0:16LAC +27% win prob(:16) 3-C.York 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
4th · 5:23CLE +19% win prob(5:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles right end pushed ob at LAC 23 for 20 yards (32-A.Gilman).
1st · 4:01CLE +13% win prob(4:01) 30-A.Ekeler right guard to CLE 4 for 71 yards (20-G.Newsome).
4th · 1:06CLE +12% win prob(1:06) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 2-A.Cooper to LAC 35 for 10 yards (23-B.Callahan).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Taylor Bertolet's 27-yard field goal with 9:32 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th9:32Taylor Bertolet·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.HarrisLead never changed again+330–28
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryBrowns
Chargers4–5Browns
467Total yards443
7.0Yards per play6.8
46%Success rate49%
30%Third-down rate40%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
11Explosive plays10
22First downs26
1Sacks taken0
0Turnovers1
The read
Browns ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.29Chargers: +0.29 expected points added per play
+0.18Browns: +0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Chargers: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.28Browns: +0.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.40Chargers: +0.40 expected points added per play
+0.05Browns: +0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 67 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Browns’s 65 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 6, Browns 5.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 5Against their seasonFourth Down
LAC's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 42.9% in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 4.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 14 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 18.2 points.
LAC's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.6% in week 4 against 8.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
CLE's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.0% in week 4 against 7.9% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Browns7.9%
inside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteLAC's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 36.3 points above their season mean of 30.4% and 2.0 times their own 18.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Brissett pass−39% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:55) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 32-A.Gilman at LAC -1. 32-A.Gilman to LAC 17 for 18 yards (7-J.Brissett; 18-Dav.Bell).
Q4 2:55 · Browns · 3rd & 7 at LAC 9 · gained nothing · -4.22 EP · −39.1% win probability
167 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps, manual charting on 148. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 99 yards from the LAC 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
45%
Yards
908
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.3853%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.1064%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.3470%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.3853%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.0517%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Chargers0Browns6
Chargers0Browns7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Chargers 41
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Chargers 17 to the Browns 28
Chargers0Browns13
Chargers0Browns14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Chargers 11
Chargers3Browns14
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Browns 4
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 29
The period ended3 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 44
2nd quarter48 plays
Chargers9Browns14
Chargers10Browns14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Browns 18 to the Browns 5
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 32 to the Browns 38
Chargers16Browns14
Chargers17Browns14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chargers 1 to the Browns 10
Chargers17Browns20
Chargers17Browns21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Chargers 2
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Chargers 35
No good9 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Chargers 27
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Chargers23Browns21
Chargers24Browns21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Browns 22
The period ended6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 34
Chargers27Browns21
Field goal8 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 4
Chargers27Browns27
Chargers27Browns28
Touchdown13 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Chargers 2
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 29
4th quarter42 plays
Chargers30Browns28
Field goal11 plays, from the Chargers 29 to the Browns 9
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.3 seconds
Intercepted13 plays, from the Browns 18 to the Chargers 9
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
The period ended10 plays, from the Chargers 17 to the Chargers 46
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
No good6 plays, from the Chargers 45 to the Chargers 35
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -1
Closing total
47
Chargers moneyline
-114
Browns moneyline
+103
Chargers closed -1 and covered, winning by 2.
Total closed 47; the game landed 58 — over by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 58°F at kickoff; breezy at 14 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Chargers 7 days · Browns 7 days
Coaches
Brandon Staley vs Kevin Stefanski
2nd · 4:39
CLE +12% win prob
(4:39) (No Huddle) 24-N.Chubb left tackle to LAC 3 for 29 yards (26-A.Samuel).
3rd · 1:11CLE +11% win prob(1:11) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-D.Njoku to LAC 2 for 9 yards (3-D.James) [99-J.Tillery]. Penalty on LAC-3-D.James, Defensive Holding, declined.
