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polling · 300s tick · as of 5:28 PM ET · 1 to play · 15 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 5 · Mon, Oct 10, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 5
It turned at Q4 4:34, 3rd and 6, on Davante Adams — 22.0 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Kansas City Chiefs 30–29 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:34, Raiders +22.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:34 · 3rd and 6
Davante Adams
Raiders
(4:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
22.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Raiders at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Raiders at 5 of 12 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — no giveaways, against Raiders at 1 giveaway.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 13.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(4:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Travis Kelce's 8-yard touchdown catch with 3:29 left in the 3rd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Travis Kelce8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+720–24Travis Kelce1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomes · two-point no good+623–3011 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Raiderscategory by categoryChiefs
Chiefs ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 57 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 69 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 3, Chiefs 4.
Raiders outgained Chiefs 378-369 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
KC's play-action rate, 8.3%, is past their previous low of 11.6% in week 4 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 29 pts
Over Expected room →Raiders-5.3 ptsright on their number · −1.9 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 56 snaps
Chiefs12.8 ptsright on their number · +2.0 vs their 10.7 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 68 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 86%
Tendencies room →Raiders52.4%right on their number · −4.1 vs their 56.4%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 42 early downs
Chiefs64.3%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 62.2%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 56 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 47%
Tendencies room →Raiders15.2%inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Chiefs8.3%leaned — dropped back clean · −9.4 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−1.06× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -59% to 116%
Fourth Down room →Raiders50.0%right on their number · +10.6 vs their 39.4%, and they swing ±29.1 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Chiefs—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 19.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 57%
Tendencies room →Raiders27.1%right on their number · +3.1 vs their 24.0%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Chiefs30.3%inside their normal wobble · +4.5 vs their 25.8%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 33%
Tendencies room →Raiders12.2%right on their number · −1.2 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Chiefs18.2%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
KC's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 8.3%, 9.4 points below their season mean of 17.7% and 1.1 times their own 8.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
29/43, 292 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
13.9 expected points added · +2.0% completion over expected
Passing · LV
19/30, 241 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
6.8 expected points added · +8.0% completion over expected
Receiving · KC
6/8 for 90 yds, 0 TD
19% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Davante Adams banked 14.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis KelceTE · Featured Receiver | 33.5 | +9.5 | 78% | 84% | 19% | 19% | 7/8, 25 yd, 4 TD |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 30.5 | −1.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/43, 292 yd, 4 TD · 4 car, 28 yd |
| Josh JacobsRB · Bell Cow Back | 30.3 | +9.0 | 81% | 67% | 19% | 0% | 21 car, 154 yd, 1 TD · 5/5, 39 yd |
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 27.4 | +14.0 | 100% | 97% | 26% | 50% | 3/7, 124 yd, 2 TD |
| Derek CarrQB · Starter QB | 17.9 | +3.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/30, 241 yd, 2 TD · 1 car, 3 yd |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Featured Receiver | 15.0 | +1.1 | 81% | 84% | 19% | 31% | 6/8, 90 yd |
| Mecole HardmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.0 | +2.4 | 40% | 43% | 12% | 22% | 1 car, 7 yd · 4/5, 73 yd |
| Jerick McKinnonRB | 9.2 | −0.5 | 53% | 53% | 7% | 1% | 8 car, 53 yd · 2/3, 19 yd |
| Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Committee Back | 6.5 | −8.7 | 43% | 41% | 10% | 3% | 9 car, 15 yd · 3/4, 20 yd |
| Hunter RenfrowWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.5 | +0.5 | 55% | 73% | 15% | 7% | 4/4, 25 yd |
| Brandon BoldenRB · Receiving Back | 6.4 | +1.6 | 16% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 1 car, 5 yd · 3/3, 29 yd |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Featured Receiver | 6.3 | −11.5 | 86% | 84% | 19% | 22% | 3/8, 33 yd |
| Jesper HorstedTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | +0.2 | 58% | 70% | 11% | 4% | 3/3, 19 yd |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −0.5 | 35% | 29% | 7% | 0% | 2/3, 15 yd |
| Justin WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.5 | 15% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.4 | 40% | 31% | 5% | 1% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Jakob JohnsonRB | 1.5 | +0.1 | 39% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Isiah PachecoRB | 0.0 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −10.2 | 95% | 88% | 15% | 34% | 0/4, 0 yd |
| Keelan ColeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Zamir WhiteRB | -0.7 | −1.4 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:47) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to 17-D.Adams [32-N.Bolton].
Q4 0:47 · Raiders · 4th & 1 at LV 46 · gained nothing · -1.57 EP · −26.7% win probability
166 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 179 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps, manual charting on 147. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 75 yards from the KC 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Raiders6
Chiefs0Raiders7Chiefs0Raiders13Chiefs0Raiders14Chiefs0Raiders17Chiefs0Raiders17Chiefs6Raiders17Chiefs7Raiders20Chiefs7Raiders20Chiefs10Raiders20Chiefs16Raiders20Chiefs17How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Raiders20Chiefs23Raiders20Chiefs24How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Raiders23Chiefs24How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Raiders23Chiefs30How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Raiders29Chiefs30How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Raiders at Chiefs, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 19/30 | 241 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +6.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 21 | 154 | 7.3 | 1 | +4.8 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Derek Carr | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 3 | 7 | 124 | 2 | 26% | +10.7 |
| Josh Jacobs | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 19% | +0.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Divine Deablo | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Hobbs | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Perryman | 6 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 29/43 | 292 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +13.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_05_LV_KC
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -7.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 59 — over by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Zamir White | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Brandon Bolden | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 11% | +1.6 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 15% | +1.4 |
| Jesper Horsted | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 11% | +0.6 |
| Jakob Johnson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15% | −2.0 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Trevon Moehrig | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rock Ya-Sin | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Johnathan Abram | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amik Robertson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chandler Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duron Harmon | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 |
| 53 |
| 6.6 |
| 0 |
| +1.7 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 0 | −3.7 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 6 | 8 | 90 | 0 | 19% | +6.7 |
| Mecole Hardman | 4 | 5 | 73 | 0 | 12% | +5.8 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 8 | 33 | 0 | 19% | −1.0 |
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 8 | 25 | 4 | 19% | +6.2 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 10% | +2.2 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 7% | +0.1 |
| Skyy Moore | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 7% | +0.0 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2% | +0.6 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 5% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Harris | 8 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bolton | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Reid | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalen Saunders | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leo Chenal | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Nnadi | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashad Fenton | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Watson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Frank Clark | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
