For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending.mdto eligible URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown.
2022 Week 5 · Mon, Oct 10, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
29
30
Kansas City Chiefs 30–29 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:34, KC +22% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(4:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
How the points landed
(8:36) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 7 — KC 0(14:03) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 14 — KC 0(9:27) 2-D.Carlson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: LV 17 — KC 0(4:44) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 17 — KC 7(:21) 2-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: LV 20 — KC 7(:03) 19-M.Wright 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: LV 20 — KC 10(9:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 20 — KC 17(3:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LV-5-D.Deablo, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 20 — KC 24(14:10) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: LV 23 — KC 24(7:30) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: LV 23 — KC 30(4:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: LV 29 — KC 30Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Raiders | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 57 | 69 |
| Total yards | 378 (edge) | 369 |
| Yards per play | 6.6 (edge) | 5.3 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.17 | 0.20 (edge) |
| Success rate | 42% | 51% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 58% | 71% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.20 | 0.31 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.13 (edge) | -0.06 |
| Third downs | 5/12 | 7/12 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 (edge) | 5 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 16 | 26 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 2 (edge) | 3 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 (edge) |
Raiders outgained Chiefs 378–369 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
29/43, 292 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
13.9 expected points added · +2.0% completion over expected
Passing · LV
19/30, 241 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
6.8 expected points added · +8.0% completion over expected
Receiving · KC
6/8 for 90 yds, 0 TD
19% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | LV 25 | 5 | 15 | 2:10 | Punt | |
| 2 | KC | KC 21 | 4 | -11 | 1:31 | Punt | |
| 3 | LV | LV 33 | 5 | 77 | 2:52 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 4 | KC | KC 25 | 12 | 52 | 4:24 | Missed field goal | |
| 5 | LV | LV 31 | 11 | 21 | 5:03 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 6 | KC | KC 25 | 5 | 6 | 1:35 | Punt | |
| 7 | LV | LV 23 | 6 | 43 | 3:03 | Field goal +3 | |
| 8 | KC | KC 25 | 13 | 75 | 4:42 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 9 | LV | LV 25 | 10 | 42 | 4:23 | Field goal +3 | |
| 10 | KC | KC 25 | 5 | 19 | 0:17 | Field goal +3 | |
| 11 | KC | KC 25 | 14 | 70 | 5:35 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 12 | LV | LV 25 | 5 | 11 | 2:21 | Punt | |
| 13 | KC | KC 43 | 9 | 55 | 3:44 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 14 | LV | LV 16 | 9 | 55 | 4:15 | Field goal +3 | |
| 15 | KC | KC 25 | 15 | 80 | 6:40 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 16 | LV | LV 25 | 9 | 75 | 2:58 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 17 | KC | KC 31 | 7 | 23 | 1:58 | Punt | |
| 18 | LV | LV 7 | 9 | 39 | 1:48 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | KC | LV 45 | 1 | 0 | 0:41 | End of game |
11 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 80 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 19/30 | 241 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 21 | 154 | 7.3 | 1 | 4.8 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Derek Carr | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Zamir White | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 | -1.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 3 | 7 | 124 | 2 | 26% | 10.7 |
| Josh Jacobs | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 19% | 0.0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 11% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Divine Deablo | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Hobbs | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Perryman | 6 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 29/43 | 292 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 8 | 53 | 6.6 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -7.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 59 — over by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1.6 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 15% | 1.4 |
| Jesper Horsted | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 11% | 0.6 |
| Jakob Johnson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | -0.2 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15% | -2.0 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Trevon Moehrig | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rock Ya-Sin | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Johnathan Abram | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amik Robertson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chandler Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duron Harmon | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.7 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 | 1.0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 0 | -3.7 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 6 | 8 | 90 | 0 | 19% | 6.7 |
| Mecole Hardman | 4 | 5 | 73 | 0 | 12% | 5.8 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 8 | 33 | 0 | 19% | -1.0 |
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 8 | 25 | 4 | 19% | 6.2 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 10% | 2.2 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 7% | 0.1 |
| Skyy Moore | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 7% | 0.0 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2% | 0.6 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 5% | -0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Harris | 8 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bolton | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Reid | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalen Saunders | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leo Chenal | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Nnadi | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashad Fenton | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Watson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Frank Clark | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
