2022 Week 5 · Mon, Oct 10, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Las Vegas Raiders

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -7.5 no coverO 51.5 ✓Chiefs closed -7.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Kansas City Chiefs 30–29 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:34, KC +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 4:34LV 29 — KC 30LV ball · 3rd & 6KC 88%

(4:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 4:34KC +22% win prob(4:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:47LV +20% win prob(:47) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to 17-D.Adams [32-N.Bolton].
Q1 · 8:36KC +18% win prob(8:36) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 11:44KC +13% win prob(11:44) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at LV 28 for 36 yards (30-D.Harmon). Penalty on LV-99-C.Ferrell, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:36LV Touchdown
(8:36) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 7 — KC 0
Q2 · 14:03LV Touchdown
(14:03) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 14 — KC 0
Q2 · 9:27LV Field goal
(9:27) 2-D.Carlson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: LV 17 — KC 0
Q2 · 4:44KC Touchdown
(4:44) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 17 — KC 7
Q2 · 0:21LV Field goal
(:21) 2-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: LV 20 — KC 7
Q2 · 0:03KC Field goal
(:03) 19-M.Wright 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: LV 20 — KC 10
Q3 · 9:29KC Touchdown
(9:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 20 — KC 17
Q3 · 3:29KC Touchdown
(3:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LV-5-D.Deablo, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 20 — KC 24
Q4 · 14:10LV Field goal
(14:10) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: LV 23 — KC 24
Q4 · 7:30KC Touchdown
(7:30) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: LV 23 — KC 30
Q4 · 4:34LV Touchdown
(4:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: LV 29 — KC 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Chiefs
Offensive plays	57	69
Total yards	378 (edge)	369
Yards per play	6.6 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	0.17	0.20 (edge)
Success rate	42%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	58%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20	0.31 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.13 (edge)	-0.06
Third downs	5/12	7/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	16	26 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Raiders outgained Chiefs 378–369 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

29/43, 292 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

13.9 expected points added · +2.0% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

19/30, 241 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.8 expected points added · +8.0% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

21 att, 154 yds, 1 TD

4.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Jerick McKinnonRB

8 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Davante AdamsWR

3/7 for 124 yds, 2 TD

26% of team targets · 10.7 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR

6/8 for 90 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 25	5	15	2:10	Punt
2	KC	KC 21	4	-11	1:31	Punt
3	LV	LV 33	5	77	2:52	Touchdown +7
4	KC	KC 25	12	52	4:24	Missed field goal
5	LV	LV 31	11	21	5:03	Touchdown +7
6	KC	KC 25	5	6	1:35	Punt
7	LV	LV 23	6	43	3:03	Field goal +3
8	KC	KC 25	13	75	4:42	Touchdown +7
9	LV	LV 25	10	42	4:23	Field goal +3
10	KC	KC 25	5	19	0:17	Field goal +3
11	KC	KC 25	14	70	5:35	Touchdown +7
12	LV	LV 25	5	11	2:21	Punt
13	KC	KC 43	9	55	3:44	Touchdown +7
14	LV	LV 16	9	55	4:15	Field goal +3
15	KC	KC 25	15	80	6:40	Touchdown +6
16	LV	LV 25	9	75	2:58	Touchdown +6
17	KC	KC 31	7	23	1:58	Punt
18	LV	LV 7	9	39	1:48	Turnover on downs
19	KC	LV 45	1	0	0:41	End of game

11 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 80 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	19/30	241	2	0	2	6.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Jacobs	21	154	7.3	1	4.8
Brandon Bolden	1	5	5.0	0	-0.3
Derek Carr	1	3	3.0	0	-0.3
Zamir White	1	-7	-7.0	0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	3	7	124	2	26%	10.7
Josh Jacobs	5	5	39	0	19%	0.0
Brandon Bolden	3	3	29	0	11%	1.6
Hunter Renfrow	4	4	25	0	15%	1.4
Jesper Horsted	3	3	19	0	11%	0.6
Jakob Johnson	1	1	5	0	4%	-0.2
Mack Hollins	0	4	0	0	15%	-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Divine Deablo	6	4	0.0	0
Nate Hobbs	6	3	0.0	0
Denzel Perryman	6	2	1.0	0
Maxx Crosby	4	0	2.0	0
Trevon Moehrig	3	1	0.0	1
Rock Ya-Sin	2	1	0.0	1
Johnathan Abram	3	0	0.0	0
Amik Robertson	2	1	0.0	0
Chandler Jones	2	1	0.0	0
Duron Harmon	3	0	0.0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	29/43	292	4	0	3	13.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jerick McKinnon	8	53	6.6	1.7
Patrick Mahomes	4	28	7.0	1.0
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	9	15	1.7	-3.7
Mecole Hardman	1	7	7.0	0.5
Isiah Pacheco	1	0	0.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	6	8	90	0	19%	6.7
Mecole Hardman	4	5	73	0	12%	5.8
JuJu Smith-Schuster	3	8	33	0	19%	-1.0
Travis Kelce	7	8	25	4	19%	6.2
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	3	4	20	0	10%	2.2
Jerick McKinnon	2	3	19	0	7%	0.1
Skyy Moore	2	3	15	0	7%	0.0
Justin Watson	1	1	10	0	2%	0.6
Noah Gray	1	2	7	0	5%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Darius Harris	8	2	1.0
Nick Bolton	7	2	0.0
L'Jarius Sneed	4	2	0.0
Justin Reid	4	0	0.0
Khalen Saunders	2	1	0.0
Leo Chenal	2	1	0.0
Derrick Nnadi	1	1	0.0
Rashad Fenton	1	1	0.0
Jaylen Watson	1	1	0.0
Frank Clark	1	1	0.5

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -7.5
Closing total: 51.5
LV moneyline: +275
KC moneyline: -321

Chiefs closed -7.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 59 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: LV 8 days · KC 8 days
Coaches: Josh McDaniels vs Andy Reid

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.