2022 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 9, 2022 · MetLife Stadium

Miami Dolphins

New York JetsWinner

MIA -3 upsetO 46 ✓Dolphins closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Jets 40–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q4 13:19, MIA +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 13:19MIA 17 — NYJ 19MIA ball · 4th & 5MIA 52%

(13:19) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 13:19MIA +16% win prob(13:19) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
Q1 · 0:52NYJ +15% win prob(:52) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep left to 20-Br.Hall to MIA 1 for 79 yards (28-K.Kohou).
Q4 · 14:56NYJ +12% win prob(14:56) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass incomplete deep right to 17-J.Waddle. PENALTY on NYJ-30-M.Carter, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at MIA 25 - No Play.
Q3 · 5:30MIA +11% win prob(5:30) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 84-C.Davis.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:48NYJ Safety
(12:48) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete short middle [1-A.Gardner]. PENALTY on MIA-5-T.Bridgewater, Intentional Grounding, 8 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY.
Score after this play: MIA 0 — NYJ 2
Q1 · 3:10NYJ Field goal
(3:10) 6-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
Score after this play: MIA 0 — NYJ 5
Q2 · 15:00NYJ Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 32-Mi.Carter up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 0 — NYJ 12
Q2 · 10:01MIA Touchdown
(10:01) 31-R.Mostert right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 7 — NYJ 12
Q2 · 2:45NYJ Touchdown
(2:45) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson scrambles right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 7 — NYJ 19
Q2 · 0:06MIA Touchdown
(:06) Direct snap to 81-D.Smythe. 81-D.Smythe up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 14 — NYJ 19
Q3 · 8:44MIA Field goal
(8:44) 7-J.Sanders 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: MIA 17 — NYJ 19
Q4 · 9:26NYJ Touchdown
(9:26) (Shotgun) 32-Mi.Carter right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-52-E.Roberts was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 17 — NYJ 26
Q4 · 9:13NYJ Touchdown
(9:13) 20-Br.Hall right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIA-98-R.Davis, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 17 — NYJ 33
Q4 · 4:31NYJ Touchdown
(4:31) 10-B.Berrios left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ-10-B.Berrios was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 17 — NYJ 40

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Jets
Offensive plays	62	53
Total yards	295	325 (edge)
Yards per play	4.8	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.22	0.14 (edge)
Success rate	50% (edge)	47%
Dropback rate	58%	45%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.50	0.15 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.17 (edge)	0.12
Third downs	4/11	5/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	17 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.22.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Zach WilsonQB

14/21, 210 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

0.9 expected points added · +0.6% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Skylar ThompsonQB

19/33, 166 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-16.3 expected points added · -3.2% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Raheem MostertRB

18 att, 113 yds, 1 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Breece HallRB

18 att, 97 yds, 1 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

7/7 for 47 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 1.9 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Corey DavisWR

2/4 for 38 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · -1.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 25	6	19	2:12	Punt
2	MIA	MIA 8	1	0	0:10	Safety
3	NYJ	NYJ 49	6	5	2:55	Punt
4	MIA	MIA 3	6	10	3:04	Punt
5	NYJ	NYJ 28	7	26	3:32	Field goal +3
6	MIA	MIA 25	5	8	2:15	Punt
7	NYJ	NYJ 20	3	80	0:56	Touchdown +7
8	MIA	MIA 25	10	48	5:01	Touchdown +7
9	NYJ	NYJ 24	5	9	1:05	Punt
10	MIA	MIA 29	2	15	0:50	Interception
11	NYJ	NYJ 47	10	53	5:22	Touchdown +7
12	MIA	MIA 25	13	75	2:34	Touchdown +7
13	NYJ	NYJ 31	2	0	0:04	End of half
14	MIA	MIA 25	12	47	6:20	Field goal +3
15	NYJ	NYJ 25	7	23	3:15	Turnover on downs
16	MIA	MIA 45	4	0	1:30	Punt
17	NYJ	NYJ 7	7	19	3:33	Punt
18	MIA	MIA 21	6	14	2:07	Missed field goal
19	NYJ	NYJ 44	8	56	3:53	Touchdown +7
20	MIA	MIA 25	2	-3	0:09	Fumble
21	NYJ	MIA 5	2	5	0:05	Touchdown +7
22	MIA	MIA 25	5	5	1:37	Turnover on downs
23	NYJ	MIA 30	6	30	3:07	Touchdown +7
24	MIA	MIA 25	10	76	3:25	Turnover on downs
25	NYJ	NYJ 15	2	0	0:59	End of game

9 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 80 scrimmage yards over 3 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Skylar Thompson	19/33	166	0	1	2	-16.3
Teddy Bridgewater	0/1	0	0	0	0	-1.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Raheem Mostert	18	113	6.3	1	2.3
Tyreek Hill	2	13	6.5	0	0.7
Myles Gaskin	4	9	2.3	0	-0.7
Durham Smythe	1	1	1.0	1	2.5
Chase Edmonds	1	1	1.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	7	7	47	22%	1.9
Mike Gesicki	1	2	30	6%	0.5
Myles Gaskin	3	5	24	16%	-4.3
Jaylen Waddle	3	4	23	13%	1.1
Cedrick Wilson	2	4	20	13%	1.0
Raheem Mostert	1	3	9	9%	0.2
Durham Smythe	1	1	8	3%	0.5
Trent Sherfield	1	2	5	6%	-1.4
Chase Edmonds	0	2	0	6%	-1.2
Tanner Conner	0	1	0	3%	-1.1
River Cracraft	0	1	0	3%	-4.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Brandon Jones	5	4	1.0	0
Elandon Roberts	4	3	0.0	0
Christian Wilkins	1	4	0.0	1
Jaelan Phillips	2	3	0.0	0
Jerome Baker	3	1	1.0	1
Nik Needham	3	1	0.0	0
Kader Kohou	4	0	0.0	0
Jevon Holland	2	1	0.0	0
Zach Sieler	1	2	0.0	0
Andrew Van Ginkel	1	0	0.0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Zach Wilson	14/21	210	0	0	2	0.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Breece Hall	18	97	5.4	1	1.8
Michael Carter	10	21	2.1	2	-1.0
Braxton Berrios	1	15	15.0	1	2.8
Zach Wilson	4	2	0.5	1	2.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Breece Hall	2	2	100	10%	7.7
Corey Davis	2	4	38	19%	-1.9
Garrett Wilson	3	4	27	19%	2.1
Michael Carter	2	2	12	10%	0.3
C.J. Uzomah	2	2	12	10%	-0.4
Jeff Smith	1	1	11	5%	1.6
Elijah Moore	1	4	11	19%	-2.3
Tyler Conklin	0	1	0	5%	-0.6
Braxton Berrios	1	1	-1	5%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
C.J. Mosley	7	3	0.0	0	0
Kwon Alexander	6	4	0.0	0	0
Jordan Whitehead	6	1	0.0	0	0
D.J. Reed	5	0	0.0	0	0
Ahmad Gardner	2	2	0.0	1	1
Quinnen Williams	0	3	0.5	0	0
Michael Carter	2	1	0.0	0	2
Carl Lawson	1	1	1.0	0	0
Solomon Thomas	1	0	0.0	0	0
John Franklin-Myers	0	1	0.5	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -3
Closing total: 46
MIA moneyline: -162
NYJ moneyline: +146

Dolphins closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 57 — over by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: MIA 10 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches: Mike McDaniel vs Robert Saleh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.