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New York Jets 40, Dolphins 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q4 13:19, 4th and 5, on Jason Sanders — 15.9 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 13:19 · 4th and 5
Jason Sanders
Jets
(13:19) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
Dolphins closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Jets 40–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q4 13:19, Jets +15.9% win probability on one snap.
15.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Breece HallJetsQ1 0:52(:52) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep left to 20-Br.Hall to MIA 1 for 79 yards (28-K.Kohou).
15.3pts
Skylar ThompsonDolphinsQ4 14:56(14:56) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass incomplete deep right to 17-J.Waddle. PENALTY on NYJ-30-M.Carter, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at MIA 25 - No Play.
12.1pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Jets won this one — +0.15 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.50 expected points per dropback.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Jets won this one — no giveaways, against Dolphins at 2 giveaways.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jets won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.22 expected points per snap.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jets won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 6 chunk plays.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Dolphins161 of 170 plays carry both curves
(13:19) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
Swing +15.9 for JetsExpected points +3.46 for JetsThe model had Jets 10 points higher than the market did.play 132
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 13:19MIA +16% win prob(13:19) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
1st · 0:52NYJ +15% win prob(:52) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep left to 20-Br.Hall to MIA 1 for 79 yards (28-K.Kohou).
4th · 14:56NYJ +12% win prob(14:56) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass incomplete deep right to 17-J.Waddle. PENALTY on NYJ-30-M.Carter, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at MIA 25 - No Play.
3rd · 5:30MIA +11% win prob(5:30) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 84-C.Davis.
1st · 12:48MIA +10% win prob(12:48) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete short middle [1-A.Gardner]. PENALTY on MIA-5-T.Bridgewater, Intentional Grounding, 8 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY.
2nd · 8:07MIA +10% win prob(8:07) 19-S.Thompson pass short right intended for 85-R.Cracraft INTERCEPTED by 1-A.Gardner (91-J.Franklin-Myers) [91-J.Franklin-Myers] at NYJ 44. 1-A.Gardner to NYJ 47 for 3 yards (85-R.Cracraft).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Safety with 12:48 left in the 1st put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:48Jets·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball backLead never changed again+20–2
1st3:10Greg Zuerlein·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+30–5
Jets ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.22Dolphins: −0.22 expected points added per play
+0.14Jets: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.50Dolphins: −0.50 expected points added per play
+0.15Jets: +0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.17Dolphins: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.12Jets: +0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 62 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Jets’s 53 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 3, Jets 7.
NoteJets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYJ's sack or hit rate, 41.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 5 — 3.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 23.1% in week 3.
3.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYJ's play-action rate, 41.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 5 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 23.2% in week 3.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.3-swing turn from week 4.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points.
MIA's play-action rate, 16.7%, is past their previous low of 27.3% in week 3 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 25 pts
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Jets41.7%
off script — got home · +22.1 vs their 19.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+3.00× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteNYJ's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 41.7%, 22.1 points above their season mean of 19.6% and 3.0 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Jason Sanders−16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(13:19) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
Q4 13:19 · Dolphins · 4th & 5 at NYJ 36 · gained nothing · -3.46 EP · −16.5% win probability
159 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, manual charting on 140. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 80 yards from the NYJ 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
45%
Yards
617
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.0756%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.3281%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR19-0.3332%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.0525%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.7017%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 44
Dolphins0Jets2
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 49 to the Dolphins 39
Punt10 plays, from the Dolphins 3 to the Dolphins 46
Dolphins0Jets5
Field goal9 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Dolphins 16
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 33
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a run-pass option, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
Dolphins0Jets11
Dolphins0Jets12
Touchdown2 plays
Dolphins6Jets12
Dolphins7Jets12
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Jets 12
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Jets 28
Intercepted2 plays, from the Dolphins 29 to the Dolphins 44
Dolphins7Jets18
Dolphins7Jets19
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jets 47 to the Dolphins 5
Dolphins13Jets19
Dolphins14Jets19
Touchdown16 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Jets 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Dolphins17Jets19
Field goal12 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Jets 28
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Dolphins 44
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 45 to midfield
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 7 to the Jets 26
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter46 plays
No good8 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Jets 36
Dolphins17Jets25
Dolphins17Jets26
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jets 44 to the Dolphins 1
Fumble lost3 plays
Dolphins17Jets32
Dolphins17Jets33
Touchdown2 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 34
Dolphins17Jets39
Dolphins17Jets40
Touchdown6 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 15
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Jets 14
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
