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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 9, 2022 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 5
It turned at Q4 13:19, 4th and 5, on Jason Sanders — 15.9 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New York Jets 40–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q4 13:19, Jets +15.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 13:19 · 4th and 5
Jason Sanders
Jets
(13:19) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
15.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Jets won this one — +0.15 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.50 expected points per dropback.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Jets won this one — no giveaways, against Dolphins at 2 giveaways.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jets won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.22 expected points per snap.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jets won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 6 chunk plays.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(13:19) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Safety with 12:48 left in the 1st put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Jetssafetysafetytwo points, and the ball backLead never changed again+20–210 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Dolphinscategory by categoryJets
Jets ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 62 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Jets’s 53 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 3, Jets 7.
Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's sack or hit rate, 41.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 5 — 3.0 points clear of the next team along.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points. · +3.0σ from their own normal
NYJ's play-action rate, 41.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 5 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
NYJ's early-down pass rate, 36.6%, is past their previous low of 49.0% in week 4 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
MIA's pass rate over expected, −10.4 pts, is past their previous low of −4.7 pts in week 4 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
NYJ's blitz rate sent, 5.6%, is past their previous low of 9.1% in week 4 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
MIA's play-action rate, 16.7%, is past their previous low of 27.3% in week 3 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.7 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Dolphins-10.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −12.5 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−1.41× that swing) · 62 snaps
Jets-6.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · −2.8 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 89%
Tendencies room →Dolphins55.1%right on their number · −2.6 vs their 57.7%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 49 early downs
Jets36.6%leaned — ran early · −20.0 vs their 56.6%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−1.57× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12% to 67%
Tendencies room →Dolphins16.7%leaned — dropped back clean · −15.3 vs their 32.0%, and they swing ±13.7 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Jets41.7%off script — faked the run · +23.2 vs their 18.5%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (+2.08× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -54% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Dolphins33.3%right on their number · +1.5 vs their 31.9%, and they swing ±22.5 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Jets33.3%right on their number · +3.0 vs their 30.4%, and they swing ±32.9 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 69%
Tendencies room →Dolphins37.5%right on their number · +5.8 vs their 31.7%, and they swing ±14.5 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Jets5.6%leaned — sat back · −9.0 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.41× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 45%
Tendencies room →Dolphins12.5%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Jets41.7%off script — got home · +22.1 vs their 19.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+3.00× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NYJ's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 41.7%, 22.1 points above their season mean of 19.6% and 3.0 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New York Jets
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYJ
14/21, 210 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
0.9 expected points added · +0.6% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
19/33, 166 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-16.3 expected points added · -3.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Breece Hall banked 13.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece HallRB · Committee Back | 27.7 | +13.3 | 69% | 67% | 10% | 9% | 18 car, 97 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 100 yd |
| Raheem MostertRB · Bell Cow Back | 19.2 | +7.1 | 69% | 64% | 9% | 5% | 18 car, 113 yd, 1 TD · 1/3, 9 yd |
| Michael CarterRB · Committee Back | 17.3 | +4.2 | 42% | 42% | 10% | 0% | 10 car, 21 yd, 2 TD · 2/2, 12 yd |
| Zach WilsonQB · Starter QB | 14.6 | +2.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/21, 210 yd · 4 car, 2 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyreek HillWR · Featured Receiver | 13.0 | +1.9 | 64% | 61% | 22% | 14% | 2 car, 13 yd · 7/7, 47 yd |
| Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.4 | +6.0 | 22% | 25% | 5% | 0% | 1 car, 15 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, -1 yd |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.9 | +3.2 | 49% | 22% | 3% | 3% | 1 car, 1 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Myles GaskinRB · Receiving Back | 6.3 | −2.4 | 19% | 25% | 16% | 6% | 4 car, 9 yd · 3/5, 24 yd |
| Corey DavisWR · Featured Receiver | 5.8 | −1.4 | 76% | 92% | 19% | 24% | 2/4, 38 yd |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Featured Receiver | 5.7 | +0.1 | 56% | 75% | 19% | 10% | 3/4, 27 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | −0.4 | 76% | 81% | 13% | 7% | 3/4, 23 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | +1.1 | 54% | 72% | 6% | 14% | 1/2, 30 yd |
| Cedrick WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −2.0 | 24% | 33% | 13% | 29% | 2/4, 20 yd |
| C.J. UzomahTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +0.1 | 69% | 67% | 10% | 3% | 2/2, 12 yd |
| Skylar ThompsonQB · Starter QB | 2.6 | −6.6 | 99% | — | 0% | — | 19/33, 166 yd, 1 INT |
| Elijah MooreWR · Featured Receiver | 2.1 | −6.7 | 66% | 79% | 19% | 35% | 1/4, 11 yd |
| Jeff SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.7 | 20% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −0.6 | 66% | 78% | 6% | 13% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Chase EdmondsRB | 0.1 | −3.2 | 15% | 14% | 6% | 0% | 1 car, 1 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Teddy BridgewaterQB | 0.0 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Tanner ConnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| River CracraftWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 21% | 22% | 3% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.5 | 68% | 46% | 5% | 20% | 0/1, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:19) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
Q4 13:19 · Dolphins · 4th & 5 at NYJ 36 · gained nothing · -3.46 EP · −16.5% win probability
159 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 170 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, manual charting on 140. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 80 yards from the NYJ 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Dolphins0
Jets2Dolphins0Jets5How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a run-pass option, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Dolphins0Jets11Dolphins0Jets12Dolphins6Jets12Dolphins7Jets12Dolphins7Jets18Dolphins7Jets19Dolphins13Jets19Dolphins14Jets19Dolphins17Jets19How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Dolphins17Jets25Dolphins17Jets26Dolphins17Jets32Dolphins17Jets33Dolphins17Jets39Dolphins17Jets40Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Dolphins at Jets, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skylar Thompson | 19/33 | 166 | 0 | 1 | 2 | −16.3 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 18 | 113 | 6.3 | 1 | +2.3 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 7 | 7 | 47 | 0 | 22% | +1.9 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 2 | 30 | 0 | 6% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jones | 5 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elandon Roberts | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Wilkins |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 14/21 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +0.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_05_MIA_NYJ
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Dolphins closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 57 — over by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Myles Gaskin | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | +2.5 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| +0.5 |
| Myles Gaskin | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 16% | −4.3 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 13% | +1.1 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 13% | +1.0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 9% | +0.2 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | −1.4 |
| Chase Edmonds | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.2 |
| Tanner Conner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.1 |
| River Cracraft | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −4.4 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Jaelan Phillips | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerome Baker | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nik Needham | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kader Kohou | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jevon Holland | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Sieler | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 18 | 97 | 5.4 | 1 | +1.8 |
| Michael Carter | 10 | 21 | 2.1 | 2 | −1.0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 1 | +2.8 |
| Zach Wilson | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 | +2.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 2 | 2 | 100 | 0 | 10% | +7.7 |
| Corey Davis | 2 | 4 | 38 | 0 | 19% | −1.9 |
| Garrett Wilson | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 19% | +2.1 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 10% | +0.3 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 10% | −0.4 |
| Jeff Smith | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 5% | +1.6 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 19% | −2.3 |
| Tyler Conklin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 5% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Mosley | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kwon Alexander | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Reed | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahmad Gardner | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Quinnen Williams | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Carl Lawson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Solomon Thomas | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Franklin-Myers | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
