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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:43 AM ET · 16 to play
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Giants156 of 167 plays carry both curves
(1:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 13-A.Lazard (29-X.McKinney).
Swing −21.7 for PackersExpected points −3.54 for PackersThe model had Giants 4 points higher than the market did.play 156
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:05NYG +22% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 13-A.Lazard (29-X.McKinney).
4th · 10:14GB +14% win prob(10:14) 23-G.Brightwell up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 9:13GB +13% win prob(9:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 26-S.Barkley pushed ob at GB 19 for 41 yards (7-Q.Walker).
1st · 14:16GB +10% win prob(14:16) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 18-R.Cobb to NYG 39 for 35 yards (20-J.Love) [55-J.Ward].
4th · 6:40GB +9% win prob(6:40) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 86-D.Slayton to GB 4 for 6 yards (29-R.Douglas). PENALTY on GB-29-R.Douglas, Unnecessary Roughness, 2 yards, enforced at GB 4.
4th · 3:19GB +7% win prob(3:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 13-A.Lazard to NYG 27 for 9 yards (35-J.Layne).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Saquon Barkley's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 6:12 left in the 4th put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st11:10Mason Crosby·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap J.Coco+30–3
4th6:12Saquon Barkley·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+727–20
4th0:15Josiah Deguara·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+227–22
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryPackers
Giants6–0Packers
342Total yards301
6.1Yards per play4.9
52%Success rate51%
60%Third-down rate40%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays5
20First downs20
1Sacks taken2
0Turnovers0
The read
Giants ahead 6–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.28Giants: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.07Packers: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.49Giants: +0.49 expected points added per play
+0.07Packers: +0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Giants: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.06Packers: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 56 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Packers’s 61 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Giants 4, Packers 4.
NoteGiants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · −2.2 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Packers12.9%
right on their number · −3.8 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was GB's early-down pass rate, 62.0% against a season mean of 53.0% — and GB swings 12.3 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass−17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 13-A.Lazard (29-X.McKinney).
Q4 1:05 · Packers · 4th & 1 at NYG 6 · gained nothing · -3.54 EP · −17.5% win probability
154 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, manual charting on 138. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 91 yards from the NYG 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.16
Success rate
47%
Yards
639
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.0273%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.2867%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.2835%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.1346%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.2333%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 0 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.6 seconds
Giants0Packers3
Field goal11 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Giants 22
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Giants 30
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Giants 25
Giants0Packers9
Giants0Packers10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Giants 4
Giants3Packers10
Field goal9 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Packers 31
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter40 plays
Giants3Packers16
Giants3Packers17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Packers 28 to the Giants 2
Giants9Packers17
Giants10Packers17
Touchdown14 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Packers 2
Giants10Packers20
Field goal12 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Giants 29
3rd quarter32 plays
Giants13Packers20
Field goal14 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Packers 17
Punt11 plays, from the Packers 12 to the Giants 36
The period ended7 plays, from the Giants 9 to the Giants 46
4th quarter50 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Giants19Packers20
Giants20Packers20
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 43 to the Packers 2
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Giants26Packers20
Giants27Packers20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Giants 40 to the Packers 2
How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerEightPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Turnover on downs16 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Giants 6
Giants27Packers22
The period ended7 plays
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
