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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 9, 2022 · Tottenham Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 5
It turned at Q4 1:05, 4th and 1, on Aaron Rodgers — 21.7 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New York Giants 27–22. Biggest swing: Q4 1:05, Giants +21.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:05 · 4th and 1
Aaron Rodgers
Giants
(1:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 13-A.Lazard (29-X.McKinney).
21.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Giants won this one — 6 of 10 on third down, against Packers at 4 of 10 on third down.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Giants won this one — +0.49 expected points per dropback, against Packers at +0.07 expected points per dropback.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Giants won this one — +0.28 expected points per snap, against Packers at +0.07 expected points per snap.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Giants won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Packers at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(1:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 13-A.Lazard (29-X.McKinney).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Saquon Barkley's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 6:12 left in the 4th put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Giantscategory by categoryPackers
Giants ahead 6–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 56 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Packers’s 61 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Giants 4, Packers 4.
Giants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Giants-5.4 ptsright on their number · +0.4 vs their -5.8 pts, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 56 snaps
Packers0.9 ptsright on their number · +4.3 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 19% to 85%
Tendencies room →Giants51.1%right on their number · −0.8 vs their 51.9%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 45 early downs
Packers62.0%inside their normal wobble · +9.0 vs their 53.0%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 56%
Tendencies room →Giants29.0%right on their number · +4.3 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±12.2 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Packers19.5%inside their normal wobble · −7.3 vs their 26.8%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 108%
Fourth Down room →Giants—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 24.3%.
Packers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 44.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 70%
Tendencies room →Giants36.6%right on their number · −3.3 vs their 39.8%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Packers22.6%right on their number · −0.2 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 38%
Tendencies room →Giants14.6%right on their number · −2.2 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Packers12.9%right on their number · −3.8 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was GB's early-down pass rate, 62.0% against a season mean of 53.0% — and GB swings 12.3 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · GB
25/39, 222 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
2.8 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
21/27, 217 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
13.4 expected points added · +11.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Gary Brightwell banked 3.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Committee Back | 19.6 | +3.3 | 69% | 68% | 23% | 15% | 13 car, 70 yd, 1 TD · 3/6, 36 yd |
| Randall CobbWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.9 | −7.5 | 63% | 73% | 33% | 42% | 7/13, 99 yd |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 16.9 | −4.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/39, 222 yd, 2 TD |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.9 | +2.5 | 54% | 68% | 27% | 53% | 6/7, 79 yd |
| Allen LazardWR · Featured Receiver | 13.5 | −1.2 | 94% | 95% | 21% | 33% | 4/8, 35 yd, 1 TD |
| Daniel JonesQB · Starter QB | 12.4 | −1.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/27, 217 yd · 10 car, 37 yd |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.4 | +2.9 | 74% | 65% | 12% | 6% | 1 car, 2 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 22 yd |
| Aaron JonesRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.0 | −2.1 | 73% | 76% | 8% | 0% | 13 car, 63 yd · 2/3, 17 yd |
| Marcedes LewisTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | +2.6 | 51% | 41% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd, 1 TD |
| Gary BrightwellRB | 6.5 | +3.3 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Marcus JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.5 | +2.2 | 77% | 90% | 12% | 16% | 3/3, 35 yd |
| Robert TonyanTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | +1.6 | 44% | 54% | 10% | 0% | 4/4, 23 yd |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | −3.5 | 86% | 88% | 13% | 22% | 3/5, 29 yd |
| Matt BreidaRB | 4.7 | −0.6 | 30% | 26% | 8% | 1% | 4 car, 14 yd · 2/2, 13 yd |
| Josiah DeguaraTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | +1.1 | 14% | 10% | 5% | 1% | 2/2, 19 yd |
| Richie JamesWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | +0.5 | 54% | 68% | 8% | 9% | 2/2, 16 yd |
| A.J. DillonRB | 3.4 | +0.1 | 32% | 29% | 0% | — | 6 car, 34 yd |
| David SillsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +0.3 | 43% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 2/2, 12 yd |
| Chris MyarickTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.2 | 44% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Christian WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.8 | −1.6 | 29% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, -3 yd · 1/1, 1 yd |
| Tyler DavisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.7 | −3.4 | 13% | 10% | 5% | 5% | 1/2, -3 yd |
| Amari RodgersWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 13-A.Lazard (29-X.McKinney).
Q4 1:05 · Packers · 4th & 1 at NYG 6 · gained nothing · -3.54 EP · −17.5% win probability
154 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 167 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, manual charting on 138. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 91 yards from the NYG 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
Giants0
Packers3Giants0Packers9Giants0Packers10Giants3Packers10Giants3Packers16Giants3Packers17Giants9Packers17Giants10Packers17Giants10Packers20Giants13Packers20How the play was built
A man in motion.
Giants19Packers20Giants20Packers20How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Giants26Packers20Giants27Packers20How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Giants27Packers22Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Giants at Packers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 21/27 | 217 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +13.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 13 | 70 | 5.4 | 1 | +0.4 |
| Daniel Jones | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Matt Breida |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 6 | 7 | 79 | 0 | 27% | +8.6 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Love | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Smith | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adoree' Jackson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 25/39 | 222 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_05_NYG_GB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42; the game landed 49 — over by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 14 |
| 3.5 |
| 0 |
| −0.6 |
| Gary Brightwell | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 1 | +0.8 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 | +1.3 |
| Jamie Gillan | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −1.7 |
| 23% |
| −2.8 |
| Marcus Johnson | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 12% | +2.6 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 12% | +1.7 |
| Richie James | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 8% | +1.7 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 8% | +1.3 |
| David Sills | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 8% | +1.8 |
| Chris Myarick | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.1 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Dexter Lawrence | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Jefferson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tae Crowder | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Darnay Holmes | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Layne | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Oshane Ximines | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | 0 | +1.0 |
| A.J. Dillon | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 7 | 13 | 99 | 0 | 33% | +4.0 |
| Allen Lazard | 4 | 8 | 35 | 1 | 21% | −1.8 |
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 13% | −0.0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 10% | +1.9 |
| Josiah Deguara | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 5% | +1.6 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 8% | +0.8 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3% | +1.0 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Tyler Davis | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 5% | −1.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quay Walker | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Stokes | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| De'Vondre Campbell | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaire Alexander | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tedarrell Slaton | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Preston Smith | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Lowry | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Clark | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashan Gary | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Savage | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
