For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Eagles170 of 182 plays carry both curves
(:22) 15-M.Ammendola 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
Swing −19.6 for CardinalsExpected points −2.43 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 11 points higher than the market did.play 179
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:22PHI +20% win prob(:22) 15-M.Ammendola 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
4th · 9:47ARI +12% win prob(9:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-E.Benjamin left tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:28ARI +10% win prob(4:28) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert to ARI 20 for 16 yards (3-B.Baker).
4th · 1:15ARI +9% win prob(1:15) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to PHI 47 for 11 yards (23-C.Gardner-Johnson).
4th · 0:23PHI +7% win prob(:23) (No Huddle) 1-K.Murray spiked the ball to stop the clock.
4th · 11:22ARI +7% win prob(11:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 26-E.Benjamin to PHI 27 for 16 yards (43-K.White).
3rd · 8:22
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cameron Dicker's 23-yard field goal with 1:48 left in the 4th put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th1:48Cameron Dicker·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder A.Siposs · snap R.LovatoLead never changed again+320–17
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryCardinals
Eagles5–4Cardinals
358Total yards363
5.1Yards per play5.4
60%Success rate48%
46%Third-down rate62%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
8Explosive plays7
25First downs23
2Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Eagles ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.14Eagles: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.10Cardinals: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Eagles: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.17Cardinals: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Eagles: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.01Cardinals: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 70 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 67 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 3, Cardinals 3.
NoteCardinals outgained Eagles 363-358 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 83.3% in week 4 against 25.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.9 points.
PHI's pass rate over expected turned over: −16.7 pts in week 4 against +6.2 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
PHI's blitz rate sent turned over: 25.9% in week 4 against 11.9% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points.
PHI's early-down pass rate turned over: 36.4% in week 4 against 57.1% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
off script — stayed blocked · −13.0 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−2.07× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Cardinals12.5%
right on their number · −3.9 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NotePHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 4.8%, 13.0 points below their season mean of 17.7% and 2.1 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Matt Ammendola−28% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:22) 15-M.Ammendola 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
Q4 0:22 · Cardinals · 4th & 1 at PHI 25 · gained nothing · -2.43 EP · −28.1% win probability
168 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 91 yards from the ARI 7 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
46%
Yards
720
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53+0.1764%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.0773%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.2313%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.3554%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.2850%
Eagles0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 17 to the Cardinals 28
Eagles6Cardinals0
Eagles7Cardinals0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Eagles 36 to the Cardinals 1
Intercepted2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 35 to the Eagles 44
Punt10 plays, from the Cardinals 12 to the Eagles 47
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 13 to the Eagles 41
2nd quarter57 plays
Eagles13Cardinals0
Eagles14Cardinals0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cardinals 39 to the Cardinals 1
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 28
Punt4 plays
Eagles14Cardinals6
Eagles14Cardinals7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 43 to the Eagles 24
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 48
Eagles14Cardinals10
Field goal20 plays, from the Cardinals 7 to the Eagles 2
3rd quarter35 plays
Eagles17Cardinals10
Field goal12 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cardinals 15
Punt12 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 47
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 14 to the Cardinals 39
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter48 plays
How the play was built
A run-pass option, no huddle, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Eagles17Cardinals16
Eagles17Cardinals17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cardinals 19 to the Eagles 11
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Eagles20Cardinals17
Field goal21 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cardinals 5
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
The period ended13 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Eagles 25
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
