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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 9, 2022 · New Era Field
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 5
It turned at Q1 14:09, 3rd and 10, on Gabe Davis — 14.4 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 38–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:09, Bills +14.4% win probability on one snap. Played in 20.4 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:09 · 3rd and 10
Gabe Davis
Bills
(14:09) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN [39-M.Fitzpatrick].
14.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Bills won this one — +0.26 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.31 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.40 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.12 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Steelers at 6 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.45 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.07 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(14:09) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN [39-M.Fitzpatrick].
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Gabe Davis's 98-yard touchdown catch with 14:09 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categoryBills
Bills ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 72 snaps at a 78% dropback rate against Bills’s 51 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 4, Bills 7.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.40 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's pass rate over expected, +21.3 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 5 — 2.3 points clear of the next team along.
51 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
PIT's sack or hit rate, 2.6%, is past their previous low of 7.9% in week 2 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
PIT's early-down pass rate, 70.4%, is past their previous high of 59.1% in week 1 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
PIT's blitz rate sent, 46.2%, is past their previous high of 31.6% in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.3 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 27 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers6.3 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +10.0 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+1.35× that swing) · 72 snaps
Bills21.3 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +15.1 vs their 6.1 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.96× that swing) · 51 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 86%
Tendencies room →Steelers70.4%leaned — passed early · +18.6 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+1.51× that swing) · 54 early downs
Bills71.4%leaned — passed early · +10.8 vs their 60.6%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+1.12× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 41%
Tendencies room →Steelers12.5%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Bills12.8%inside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their 19.8%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -51% to 174%
Fourth Down room →Steelers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 18.3%.
Bills—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 61.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15% to 65%
Tendencies room →Steelers46.2%leaned — sent pressure · +17.9 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (+1.25× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Bills23.2%inside their normal wobble · +6.8 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 29%
Tendencies room →Steelers2.6%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.2 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−1.95× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Bills14.3%right on their number · +0.3 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
BUF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 21.3 pts, 15.1 points above their season mean of 6.1 pts and 2.0 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
20/31, 424 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
24.9 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
34/52, 327 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-2.2 expected points added · +1.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Gabe Davis banked 18.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 35.2 | +9.6 | 86% | — | 0% | — | 20/31, 424 yd, 4 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 42 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 32.1 | +18.1 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Alpha Receiver | 24.2 | +1.1 | 77% | 82% | 31% | 26% | 8/11, 102 yd, 1 TD |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.5 | +6.7 | 70% | 72% | 14% | 18% | 3/5, 75 yd, 1 TD |
| George PickensWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.3 | +2.9 | 76% | 86% | 16% | 25% | 6/8, 83 yd |
| Kenny PickettQB · Starter QB | 12.1 | −2.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 34/52, 327 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, 10 yd |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.0 | −8.8 | 93% | 93% | 25% | 43% | 5/13, 60 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | 10.3 | +2.1 | 51% | 59% | 10% | 0% | 5 car, 24 yd · 4/5, 39 yd |
| Chase ClaypoolWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.0 | −1.9 | 91% | 93% | 18% | 18% | 5/9, 50 yd |
| Zach GentryTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.3 | +1.3 | 64% | 55% | 12% | 6% | 5/6, 43 yd |
| James CookRB | 9.1 | +7.0 | 18% | 10% | 0% | — | 4 car, 31 yd, 1 TD |
| Isaiah HodginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | −1.9 | 23% | 26% | 17% | 10% | 4/6, 41 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB · Bell Cow Back | 6.6 | −3.8 | 49% | 41% | 8% | 1% | 11 car, 20 yd · 3/4, 16 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB | 5.6 | −0.9 | 54% | 51% | 6% | 1% | 6 car, 42 yd · 1/2, 4 yd |
| Quintin MorrisTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | −7.6 | 68% | 72% | 14% | 8% | 3/5, 39 yd |
| Connor HeywardRB | 3.2 | +0.6 | 13% | 18% | 4% | 3% | 2/2, 12 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +0.6 | 49% | 45% | 4% | 2% | 2/2, 12 yd |
| Miles BoykinWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.7 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Derek WattRB | 1.1 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Zack MossRB | 0.7 | +0.1 | 29% | 38% | 0% | — | 1 car, 7 yd |
| Case KeenumQB | 0.1 | −1.5 | 14% | — | 0% | — | 2/5, 8 yd · 2 car, -2 yd |
| Taiwan JonesRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Tanner GentryWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 20% | 18% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Steven SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:09) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN [39-M.Fitzpatrick].
Q1 14:09 · Bills · 3rd & 10 at BUF 2 · gained 98 · +8.36 EP · +21.6% win probability
160 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 170 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, manual charting on 146. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 98 yards from the BUF 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Steelers0
Bills6Steelers0Bills7Steelers3Bills7Steelers3Bills10How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Steelers3Bills16Steelers3Bills17Steelers3Bills23Steelers3Bills24Steelers3Bills30Steelers3Bills31Steelers3Bills37Steelers3Bills38Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 34/52 | 327 | 0 | 1 | 3 | −2.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Najee Harris | 11 | 20 | 1.8 | 0 | −4.6 |
| Kenny Pickett |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 6 | 8 | 83 | 0 | 16% | +6.0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 5 | 13 | 60 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Heyward | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Pierre | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Arthur Maulet |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 20/31 | 424 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +24.9 |
| Case Keenum | 2/5 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_05_PIT_BUF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -14 and covered, winning by 35.
Total closed 44; the game landed 41 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 20.4 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 1 |
| 10 |
| 10.0 |
| 0 |
| −1.5 |
| 25% |
| −6.9 |
| Chase Claypool | 5 | 9 | 50 | 0 | 18% | −0.5 |
| Zach Gentry | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 12% | +2.8 |
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 10% | +1.2 |
| Najee Harris | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 8% | −0.9 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Connor Heyward | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 4% | +1.1 |
| Miles Boykin | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2% | +0.9 |
| Derek Watt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Devin Bush | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Sutton | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Norwood | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Jack | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Wallace | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Josh Jackson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| −3.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 5 | 42 | 8.4 | 0 | +2.9 |
| Devin Singletary | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 | +2.0 |
| James Cook | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 1 | +1.3 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Case Keenum | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 6 | 171 | 2 | 17% | +7.5 |
| Stefon Diggs | 8 | 11 | 102 | 1 | 31% | +4.9 |
| Khalil Shakir | 3 | 5 | 75 | 1 | 14% | +6.5 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 17% | +0.4 |
| Quintin Morris | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 14% | −4.0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| Tanner Gentry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrel Dodson | 6 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaiir Elam | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaquan Johnson | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damar Hamlin | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Jackson | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Terrel Bernard | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Baylon Spector | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Siran Neal | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Matt Milano | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Taron Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
