2022 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 9, 2022 · New Era Field

Pittsburgh Steelers

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -14 ✓U 44 ✓Bills closed -14 and covered, winning by 35.

Buffalo Bills 38–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:09, BUF +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 14:09PIT 0 — BUF 6BUF ball · 3rd & 10BUF 81%

(14:09) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN [39-M.Fitzpatrick].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 14:09BUF +14% win prob(14:09) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN [39-M.Fitzpatrick].
Q2 · 11:32PIT +5% win prob(11:32) 17-J.Allen pass deep right intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 29-L.Wallace at PIT -2. Touchback.
Q1 · 2:45BUF +5% win prob(2:45) 2-T.Bass 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Q1 · 8:35BUF +4% win prob(8:35) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 81-Z.Gentry to BUF 25 for 8 yards (53-T.Dodson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 14:09BUF Touchdown
(14:09) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN [39-M.Fitzpatrick]. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 0 — BUF 7
Q1 · 5:42PIT Field goal
(5:42) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: PIT 3 — BUF 7
Q1 · 2:45BUF Field goal
(2:45) 2-T.Bass 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: PIT 3 — BUF 10
Q2 · 9:39BUF Touchdown
(9:39) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 3 — BUF 17
Q2 · 7:24BUF Touchdown
(7:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 3 — BUF 24
Q2 · 1:09BUF Touchdown
(1:09) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 10-K.Shakir for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT-42-J.Pierre was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 3 — BUF 31
Q4 · 14:11BUF Touchdown
(14:11) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 28-J.Cook up the middle for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 3 — BUF 38

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Bills
Offensive plays	72	51
Total yards	364	555 (edge)
Yards per play	5.1	10.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.12	0.40 (edge)
Success rate	42%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	78%	76%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	0.45 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.31	0.26 (edge)
Third downs	5/15	5/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	3	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.40 expected points added per play vs -0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

20/31, 424 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

24.9 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Kenny PickettQB

34/52, 327 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-2.2 expected points added · +1.4% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

5 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

2.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

6 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Gabe DavisWR

3/6 for 171 yds, 2 TD

17% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

8/11 for 102 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 2	5	98	1:04	Touchdown +7
2	PIT	PIT 21	5	0	2:00	Missed field goal
3	PIT	PIT 39	12	50	6:18	Field goal +3
4	BUF	BUF 35	8	48	2:57	Field goal +3
5	PIT	PIT 25	5	14	2:07	Punt
6	BUF	BUF 2	9	78	4:09	Interception
7	PIT	PIT 20	4	8	1:46	Punt
8	BUF	BUF 38	2	62	0:10	Touchdown +7
9	PIT	PIT 25	5	2	1:36	Punt
10	BUF	BUF 47	3	38	0:33	Touchdown +7
11	PIT	PIT 25	10	60	3:41	Missed field goal
12	BUF	BUF 23	9	77	2:37	Touchdown +7
13	PIT	PIT 27	3	5	0:47	Interception
14	BUF	BUF 38	2	0	0:15	End of half
15	PIT	PIT 25	9	48	4:22	Turnover on downs
16	BUF	BUF 20	10	75	5:19	Fumble
17	PIT	PIT 20	10	73	5:19	Missed field goal
18	BUF	BUF 35	3	65	0:57	Touchdown +7
19	PIT	PIT 25	11	45	3:47	Turnover on downs
20	BUF	BUF 30	4	9	1:50	Punt
21	PIT	PIT 20	4	0	0:59	Punt
22	BUF	BUF 46	4	5	1:01	Punt
23	PIT	PIT 20	12	59	5:26	Turnover on downs
24	BUF	BUF 26	2	0	1:00	End of game

7 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 98 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kenny Pickett	34/52	327	0	1	3	-2.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jaylen Warren	5	24	4.8	-0.4
Najee Harris	11	20	1.8	-4.6
Kenny Pickett	1	10	10.0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
George Pickens	6	8	83	16%	6.0
Diontae Johnson	5	13	60	25%	-6.9
Chase Claypool	5	9	50	18%	-0.5
Zach Gentry	5	6	43	12%	2.8
Jaylen Warren	4	5	39	10%	1.2
Najee Harris	3	4	16	8%	-0.9
Pat Freiermuth	2	2	12	4%	-0.4
Connor Heyward	2	2	12	4%	1.1
Miles Boykin	1	1	11	2%	0.9
Derek Watt	1	1	1	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Cameron Heyward	1	4	0	0
James Pierre	5	0	0	1
Arthur Maulet	4	1	0	0
Devin Bush	3	1	0	0
Cameron Sutton	4	0	0	0
Tre Norwood	3	0	0	0
Myles Jack	1	2	0	0
Levi Wallace	2	1	1	2
Josh Jackson	1	1	0	0
Diontae Johnson	1	0	0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	20/31	424	4	1	0	24.9
Case Keenum	2/5	8	0	0	0	-3.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Allen	5	42	8.4	0	2.9
Devin Singletary	6	42	7.0	0	2.0
James Cook	4	31	7.8	1	1.3
Zack Moss	1	7	7.0	0	0.6
Case Keenum	2	-2	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Gabe Davis	3	6	171	2	17%	7.5
Stefon Diggs	8	11	102	1	31%	4.9
Khalil Shakir	3	5	75	1	14%	6.5
Isaiah Hodgins	4	6	41	0	17%	0.4
Quintin Morris	3	5	39	0	14%	-4.0
Devin Singletary	1	2	4	0	6%	-0.6
Tanner Gentry	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tyrel Dodson	6	4	1.0	0	0
Kaiir Elam	7	3	0.0	1	1
Jaquan Johnson	2	6	0.0	0	0
Damar Hamlin	5	1	0.0	0	0
Dane Jackson	5	0	0.0	0	1
Terrel Bernard	1	3	0.0	0	0
Baylon Spector	3	0	0.0	0	0
Siran Neal	1	1	0.0	0	4
Matt Milano	1	1	0.0	0	2
Taron Johnson	1	0	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -14
Closing total: 44
PIT moneyline: +568
BUF moneyline: -749

Bills closed -14 and covered, winning by 35.

Total closed 44; the game landed 41 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: PIT 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Sean McDermott