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Buffalo Bills 38, Steelers 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 14:09, 3rd and 10, on Gabe Davis — 14.4 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:09 · 3rd and 10
Gabe Davis
Bills
(14:09) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN [39-M.Fitzpatrick].
20.4 mph wind
Bills closed -14 and covered, winning by 35.
Buffalo Bills 38–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:09, Bills +14.4% win probability on one snap. Played in 20.4 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
14.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tyler BassBillsQ1 2:45(2:45) 2-T.Bass 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
4.5pts
Levi WallaceSteelersQ2 11:32(11:32) 17-J.Allen pass deep right intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 29-L.Wallace at PIT -2. Touchback.
4.8pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Bills won this one — +0.26 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.31 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.40 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.12 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Steelers at 6 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.45 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.07 expected points per dropback.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Steelers162 of 170 plays carry both curves
(14:09) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN [39-M.Fitzpatrick].
Swing +14.4 for BillsExpected points +8.36 for BillsThe model had Steelers 33 points higher than the market did.play 5
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:09BUF +14% win prob(14:09) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN [39-M.Fitzpatrick].
2nd · 11:32PIT +5% win prob(11:32) 17-J.Allen pass deep right intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 29-L.Wallace at PIT -2. Touchback.
1st · 2:45BUF +5% win prob(2:45) 2-T.Bass 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
1st · 8:35BUF +4% win prob(8:35) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 81-Z.Gentry to BUF 25 for 8 yards (53-T.Dodson).
1st · 7:53BUF +4% win prob(7:53) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short right to 14-G.Pickens to BUF 13 for 12 yards (24-K.Elam).
2nd · 14:52BUF +3% win prob(14:52) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 16-I.Hodgins to BUF 34 for 26 yards (21-T.Norwood).
2nd · 9:47
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Gabe Davis's 98-yard touchdown catch with 14:09 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Bills ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Steelers: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.40Bills: +0.40 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.07Steelers: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.45Bills: +0.45 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.31Steelers: −0.31 expected points added per play
+0.26Bills: +0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 72 snaps at a 78% dropback rate against Bills’s 51 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 4, Bills 7.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.40 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
BUF's pass rate over expected, +21.3 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 5 — 2.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +18.2 pts in week 2.
51 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
PIT's blitz rate sent, 46.2%, is past their previous high of 31.6% in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 4.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 27 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.2 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−1.95× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Bills14.3%
right on their number · +0.3 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
NoteBUF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 21.3 pts, 15.1 points above their season mean of 6.1 pts and 2.0 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass+22% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:09) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN [39-M.Fitzpatrick].
Q1 14:09 · Bills · 3rd & 10 at BUF 2 · gained 98 · +8.36 EP · +21.6% win probability
160 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, manual charting on 146. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 98 yards from the BUF 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
40%
Yards
916
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.1585%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.4569%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.0556%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Steelers0Bills6
Steelers0Bills7
Touchdown5 plays
No good6 plays
Steelers3Bills7
Field goal12 plays, from the Steelers 39 to the Bills 10
Steelers3Bills10
Field goal8 plays, from the Bills 35 to the Steelers 17
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 29
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Bills 8 to the Steelers 21
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 28
Steelers3Bills16
Steelers3Bills17
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 27
Steelers3Bills23
Steelers3Bills24
Touchdown3 plays, from the Bills 47 to the Steelers 15
No good10 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Bills 15
Steelers3Bills30
Steelers3Bills31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Steelers 24
Intercepted4 plays, from the Steelers 27 to the Steelers 37
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Bills 17
Fumble lost12 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Steelers 1
No good11 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Bills 22
4th quarter45 plays
Steelers3Bills37
Steelers3Bills38
Touchdown3 plays, from the Bills 35 to the Steelers 24
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Bills 30
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 39
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 46 to the Steelers 49
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Bills 18
The period ended1 play
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
