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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Seahawks175 of 187 plays carry both curves
(5:33) (Shotgun) 66-L.Kidd and 67-L.Young reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill left tackle for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +26.0 for SaintsExpected points +5.28 for SaintsThe model had Seahawks 2 points higher than the market did.play 167
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:33NO +26% win prob(5:33) (Shotgun) 66-L.Kidd and 67-L.Young reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill left tackle for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 7:04NO +26% win prob(7:04) (No Huddle) 9-K.Walker left guard for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:14NO +19% win prob(:14) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-M.Davenport]. Pass 35, YAC 0
3rd · 14:55SEA +16% win prob(14:55) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf to SEA 31 for 8 yards (30-J.Evans, 20-P.Werner). FUMBLES (20-P.Werner), RECOVERED by NO-93-D.Onyemata at SEA 31. Pass 0, YAC 8 The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 6:53NO +14% win prob(6:53) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 25, YAC 25
3rd · 12:07NO +9% win prob(12:07) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep right to 12-C.Olave (8-C.Bryant). New Orleans challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO-12-C.Olave was injured during the play. He is Out.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Taysom Hill's 60-yard rushing touchdown with 5:33 left in the 4th put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:39Wil Lutz·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.Wood+30–3
4th5:33Taysom Hill·60-yd TD run60-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+832–39
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categorySaints
Seahawks3–6Saints
396Total yards444
7.9Yards per play6.3
36%Success rate46%
11%Third-down rate62%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays6
14First downs24
3Sacks taken1
1Turnovers2
The read
Saints ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.00Seahawks: −0.00 expected points added per play
+0.09Saints: +0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.08Seahawks: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.02Saints: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Seahawks: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.16Saints: +0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 50 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Saints’s 70 at 39%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 5, Saints 5.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
NO's pass rate over expected, −19.3 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 5 — 4.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −11.2 pts in week 4.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points.
NO's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 33.3% in week 4 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.3 points.
SEA's play-action rate turned over: 50.0% in week 4 against 20.0% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 3.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · +2.6 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Saints16.1%
inside their normal wobble · +3.3 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteNO's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 25.9%, 12.4 points above their season mean of 13.5% and 2.0 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash.
More columns →
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Kidd and+27% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(5:33) (Shotgun) 66-L.Kidd and 67-L.Young reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill left tackle for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 5:33 · Saints · 3rd & 1 at NO 40 · gained 60 · +5.28 EP · +26.8% win probability
173 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 187 snaps, manual charting on 150. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 79 yards from the NO 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
37%
Yards
836
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.0252%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.0664%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.1764%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.0433%
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.1417%
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints0 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks2 RB, 0 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Seahawks0Saints3
Field goal12 plays, from the Saints 22 to the Seahawks 37
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.6 seconds
Seahawks6Saints3
Seahawks7Saints3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to midfield
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 11 to the Saints 35
Seahawks10Saints3
Field goal7 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the Saints 37
The period ended4 plays, from the Saints 31 to the Saints 35
2nd quarter56 plays
Seahawks10Saints9
Seahawks10Saints10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 36 to the Seahawks 8
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 33
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 36 to the Saints 42
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 26
Seahawks10Saints16
Seahawks10Saints17
Touchdown3 plays, from the Seahawks 13 to the Seahawks 9
Seahawks13Saints17
Field goal11 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Saints 13
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Seahawks 39
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Seahawks19Saints17
Touchdown6 plays, from midfield to the Saints 35
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter46 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Seahawks19Saints23
Seahawks19Saints24
Touchdown7 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Seahawks 16
Punt8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 44
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 21 to the Saints 38
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 27
Intercepted3 plays, from the Saints 39 to the Saints 40
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 48 to the Saints 32
Seahawks19Saints30
Seahawks19Saints31
Touchdown5 plays, from the Saints 21 to the Seahawks 22
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter46 plays
Seahawks25Saints31
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Saints 40
Punt14 plays, from the Saints 23 to the Seahawks 42
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Seahawks31Saints31
Seahawks32Saints31
Touchdown3 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Seahawks 31
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldSeven linemen and three tight endsDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Seahawks32Saints37
Seahawks32Saints39
Touchdown5 plays, from the Saints 31 to the Saints 40
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 33
The period ended14 plays, from the Saints 32 to the Seahawks 25
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Saints -5.5
Closing total
45.5
Seahawks moneyline
+201
Saints moneyline
-229
Saints closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 71 — over by 25.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Seahawks 7 days · Saints 7 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Dennis Allen
3rd · 5:04SEA +9% win prob(5:04) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left intended for 10-T.Smith INTERCEPTED by 27-T.Woolen at NO 48. 27-T.Woolen to NO 48 for no gain (10-T.Smith).
2nd · 4:28SEA +9% win prob(4:28) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson right end to SEA 13 for -8 yards (96-C.Granderson, 24-D.Washington).
