For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
2022 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 9, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
49ersSan Francisco37
BY 22final margin
PanthersCarolina15
San Francisco 49ers 37 at Carolina Panthers 15. Final.
49ers -6 ✓O 40 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 5
San Francisco 49ers 37, Panthers 15 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 0:55, 2nd and 20, on Emmanuel Moseley — 10.6 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:55 · 2nd and 20
Emmanuel Moseley
49ers
(:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 22-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 4-E.Moseley at CAR 41. 4-E.Moseley for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
49ers closed -6 and covered, winning by 22.
San Francisco 49ers 37–15 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:55, 49ers +10.6% win probability on one snap.
10.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jeffery Wilson49ersQ1 12:32(12:32) (Shotgun) 22-J.Wilson up the middle pushed ob at CAR 9 for 41 yards (38-M.Hartsfield).
8.4pts
George KittlePanthersQ1 7:20(7:20) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 85-G.Kittle to SF 45 for 7 yards (57-D.Wilson). FUMBLES (57-D.Wilson), RECOVERED by CAR-97-Y.Gross-Matos at CAR 46. 97-Y.Gross-Matos to CAR 46 for no gain. FUMBLES, and recovers at CAR 44.
7.2pts
What separated them
Third down
49ers won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Panthers at 3 of 15 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
49ers won this one — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Panthers at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.43 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.27 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.17 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on 49ers170 of 180 plays carry both curves
(:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 22-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 4-E.Moseley at CAR 41. 4-E.Moseley for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −10.6 for PanthersExpected points −7.43 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 16 points higher than the market did.play 80
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:55SF +11% win prob(:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 22-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 4-E.Moseley at CAR 41. 4-E.Moseley for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:32CAR +8% win prob(12:32) (Shotgun) 22-J.Wilson up the middle pushed ob at CAR 9 for 41 yards (38-M.Hartsfield).
1st · 7:20SF +7% win prob(7:20) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 85-G.Kittle to SF 45 for 7 yards (57-D.Wilson). FUMBLES (57-D.Wilson), RECOVERED by CAR-97-Y.Gross-Matos at CAR 46. 97-Y.Gross-Matos to CAR 46 for no gain. FUMBLES, and recovers at CAR 44.
1st · 2:15SF +5% win prob(2:15) 4-E.Pineiro 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
3rd · 12:03CAR +5% win prob(12:03) 22-C.McCaffrey right end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-54-F.Warner, Low Block, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
1st · 11:47CAR +5% win prob(11:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 28-T.Coleman for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tevin Coleman's 9-yard touchdown catch with 11:47 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:47Tevin Coleman·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy GaroppoloLead never changed again+77–0
2nd13:01Robbie Gould·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+310–0
2nd8:04Eddy Pineiro·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+310–3
49ers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.2749ers: +0.27 expected points added per play
−0.17Panthers: −0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.4349ers: +0.43 expected points added per play
−0.25Panthers: −0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.0849ers: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.02Panthers: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 59 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Panthers’s 66 at 73%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Panthers 3.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CAR's early-down pass rate, 75.6%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 5 — 2.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 71.1% in week 4.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.8 points.
SF's play-action rate, 28.1%, is past their previous high of 20.0% in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 4.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · +1.3 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Panthers15.6%
right on their number · +1.5 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteCAR's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 75.6%, 25.9 points above their season mean of 49.7% and 1.5 times their own 16.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass−16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 22-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 4-E.Moseley at CAR 41. 4-E.Moseley for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:55 · Panthers · 2nd & 20 at CAR 30 · gained nothing · -7.43 EP · −16.1% win probability
168 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 75 yards from the SF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
39%
Yards
705
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.1982%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR24+0.3438%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.4277%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.2245%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.0356%
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
49ers6Panthers0
49ers7Panthers0
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Panthers 9
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 16 to the Panthers 25
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, from outside the pocket.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Fumble lost6 plays, from the 49ers 15 to the 49ers 38
No good10 plays, from the Panthers 44 to the 49ers 23
The period ended5 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the Panthers 33
2nd quarter53 plays
49ers10Panthers0
Field goal5 plays, from the Panthers 21 to the Panthers 20
49ers10Panthers3
Field goal14 plays, from the Panthers 22 to the 49ers 25
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Panthers 45
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 7 to the Panthers 13
The period ended9 plays, from the 49ers 46 to the Panthers 25
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
49ers16Panthers3
Touchdown5 plays, from the Panthers 22 to the Panthers 40
49ers17Panthers3
The period ended6 plays, from the Panthers 31 to the Panthers 40
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
49ers17Panthers9
Touchdown9 plays, from the Panthers 49 to the 49ers 19
49ers23Panthers9
49ers24Panthers9
Touchdown15 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Panthers 3
49ers24Panthers12
Field goal7 plays, from midfield to the 49ers 17
The period ended9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 47
4th quarter51 plays
49ers30Panthers12
Touchdown9 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Panthers 1
49ers30Panthers15
Field goal14 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the 49ers 16
Punt10 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the Panthers 42
Turnover on downs4 plays
49ers36Panthers15
49ers37Panthers15
Touchdown3 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the 49ers 27
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -6
Closing total
40
49ers moneyline
-234
Panthers moneyline
+206
49ers closed -6 and covered, winning by 22.
Total closed 40; the game landed 52 — over by 12.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 66°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the south-east; mainly clear.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
49ers 6 days · Panthers 7 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Matt Rhule
2nd · 1:48SF +5% win prob(1:48) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (97-Y.Gross-Matos), Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky, RECOVERED by CAR-7-S.Thompson at CAR 21. 7-S.Thompson to CAR 22 for 1 yard (74-S.Burford). FUMBLES (74-S.Burford), and recovers at CAR 22.
2nd · 7:20CAR +4% win prob(7:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 11-B.Aiyuk to 50 for 24 yards (34-S.Chandler).
