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2022 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 9, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium

San Francisco 49ersWinner

37

Carolina Panthers

15

SF -6 ✓O 40 ✓

San Francisco 49ers 37–15 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:55, SF +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CAR ↑SF ↓
Q2 · 0:55SF 16 — CAR 3CAR ball · 2nd & 20SF 84%

(:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 22-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 4-E.Moseley at CAR 41. 4-E.Moseley for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 0:55SF +11% win prob(:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 22-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 4-E.Moseley at CAR 41. 4-E.Moseley for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 12:32CAR +8% win prob(12:32) (Shotgun) 22-J.Wilson up the middle pushed ob at CAR 9 for 41 yards (38-M.Hartsfield).
  3. Q1 · 7:20SF +7% win prob(7:20) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 85-G.Kittle to SF 45 for 7 yards (57-D.Wilson). FUMBLES (57-D.Wilson), RECOVERED by CAR-97-Y.Gross-Matos at CAR 46. 97-Y.Gross-Matos to CAR 46 for no gain. FUMBLES, and recovers at CAR 44.
  4. Q1 · 2:15SF +5% win prob(2:15) 4-E.Pineiro 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:47SF Touchdown

    (11:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 28-T.Coleman for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 7 — CAR 0
  2. Q2 · 13:01SF Field goal

    (13:01) 9-R.Gould 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: SF 10 — CAR 0
  3. Q2 · 8:04CAR Field goal

    (8:04) 4-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: SF 10 — CAR 3
  4. Q2 · 0:55SF Touchdown

    (:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 22-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 4-E.Moseley at CAR 41. 4-E.Moseley for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 17 — CAR 3
  5. Q3 · 12:03CAR Touchdown

    (12:03) 22-C.McCaffrey right end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-54-F.Warner, Low Block, 1 yard, enforced between downs.

    Score after this play: SF 17 — CAR 9
  6. Q3 · 6:37SF Touchdown

    (6:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 19-D.Samuel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 24 — CAR 9
  7. Q3 · 3:44CAR Field goal

    (3:44) 4-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: SF 24 — CAR 12
  8. Q4 · 12:36SF Touchdown

    (12:36) 22-J.Wilson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: SF 30 — CAR 12
  9. Q4 · 6:55CAR Field goal

    (6:55) 4-E.Pineiro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: SF 30 — CAR 15
  10. Q4 · 3:20SF Touchdown

    (3:20) 28-T.Coleman left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 37 — CAR 15

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric49ersPanthers
Offensive plays5966
Total yards399 (edge)308
Yards per play6.8 (edge)4.7
Expected points added / play0.27 (edge)-0.17
Success rate49% (edge)36%
Dropback rate54%73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.43 (edge)-0.25
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.08 (edge)0.02
Third downs7/12 (edge)3/15
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps21 (edge)15
Sacks taken2 (edge)6
Turnovers21 (edge)

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

18/30, 253 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

18.3 expected points added · -5.9% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Baker MayfieldQB

20/36, 215 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-10.8 expected points added · -8.8% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Jeffery WilsonRB

17 att, 120 yds, 1 TD

4.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

14 att, 54 yds, 1 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Shi SmithWR

4/5 for 69 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

D.J. MooreWR

4/8 for 59 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1SFSF 259753:20Touchdown +7
2CARCAR 16591:46Punt
3SFSF 156302:45Fumble
4CARCAR 4410334:59Missed field goal
5SFSF 318434:14Field goal +3
6CARCAR 2210634:57Field goal +3
7SFSF 257302:26Punt
8CARCAR 7461:30Punt
9SFSF 467292:20Missed field goal
10CARCAR 224181:00Defensive touchdown
11CARCAR 31540:39Punt
12SFSF 15100:04End of half
13CARCAR 499513:03Touchdown +6
14SFSF 2512725:25Touchdown +7
15CAR507312:52Field goal +3
16SFSF 2514756:09Touchdown +6
17CARCAR 2513555:40Field goal +3
18SFSF 266422:22Punt
19CARCAR 104-70:23Turnover on downs
20SFCAR 3330:51Touchdown +7
21CARCAR 259452:53Turnover on downs
22SFSF 30100:22End of game

9 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jimmy Garoppolo18/3025320218.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jeffery Wilson171207.114.7
Tevin Coleman8232.91-2.8
Deebo Samuel2126.000.3
Jimmy Garoppolo1-1-1.000.0
Brock Purdy1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Brandon Aiyuk3458013%4.5
George Kittle5647020%-0.8
Jauan Jennings224507%4.8
Tevin Coleman3344110%5.2
Kyle Juszczyk222707%3.3
Deebo Samuel2920130%0.5
Jeffery Wilson121207%0.1
Danny Gray02007%-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Dre Greenlaw470.000
Fred Warner540.501
Deommodore Lenoir440.000
Talanoa Hufanga231.001
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles311.000
Charvarius Ward210.004
Oren Burks210.500
Tashaun Gipson210.500
Samson Ebukam030.500
Emmanuel Moseley210.012

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield20/36215014-10.8
P.J. Walker5/660002-1.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Christian McCaffrey14543.911.3
D.J. Moore188.000.5
D'Onta Foreman221.00-1.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Shi Smith4569013%2.9
D.J. Moore4859020%4.6
Christian McCaffrey71250030%-9.2
Robbie Chosen1532013%0.0
Terrace Marshall4430010%1.1
Giovanni Ricci332708%0.6
Ian Thomas22805%-0.2
Tommy Tremble01003%-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Damien Wilson621.000
Juston Burris520.001
Cory Littleton430.000
Shaq Thompson330.000
Myles Hartsfield310.001
Derrick Brown220.002
Yetur Gross-Matos220.000
Donte Jackson310.000
Sean Chandler110.000
Brian Burns111.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SF -6
Closing total
40
SF moneyline
-234
CAR moneyline
+206

49ers closed -6 and covered, winning by 22.

Total closed 40; the game landed 52 — over by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
SF 6 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Matt Rhule