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2022 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 9, 2022 · FedExField
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 5
It turned at Q4 0:09, 3rd and 2, on David Long Jr. — 35.8 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:09 · 3rd and 2
David Long Jr.
Titans
(:09) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left intended for 23-J.McKissic INTERCEPTED by 51-D.Long at TEN 1. 51-D.Long to TEN 47 for 46 yards (72-C.Leno). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left intended for 23-J.McKissic INTERCEPTED by 51-D.Long at TEN 1. 51-D.Long to TEN 1 for no gain (23-J.McKissic).
Tennessee Titans 21–17. Biggest swing: Q4 0:09, Titans +35.8% win probability on one snap.
35.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Titans won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Commanders at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Titans won this one — 4 of 14 on third down, against Commanders at 1 of 11 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Titans won this one — +0.02 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.27 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Titans won this one — no giveaways, against Commanders at 1 giveaway.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(:09) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left intended for 23-J.McKissic INTERCEPTED by 51-D.Long at TEN 1. 51-D.Long to TEN 47 for 46 yards (72-C.Leno). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact rulin
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Derrick Henry's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 1:06 left in the 3rd put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Titanscategory by categoryCommanders
Commanders ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Titans, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 62 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Commanders’s 57 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Titans 3, Commanders 3.
Commanders outgained Titans 386-241 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's sack or hit rate, 38.7%, is past their previous high of 27.0% in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Titans-13.7 ptsright on their number · −3.0 vs their -10.7 pts, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 62 snaps
Commanders6.1 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +13.7 vs their -7.6 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+1.64× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 86%
Tendencies room →Titans40.4%inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 46.4%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 47 early downs
Commanders72.7%leaned — passed early · +23.7 vs their 49.1%, and they swing ±14.4 week to week (+1.65× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 57%
Tendencies room →Titans16.1%inside their normal wobble · −8.9 vs their 25.0%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Commanders27.9%inside their normal wobble · +7.2 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -44% to 107%
Fourth Down room →Titans—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 20.8%.
Commanders50.0%inside their normal wobble · +14.7 vs their 35.3%, and they swing ±28.1 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 47%
Tendencies room →Titans14.0%inside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their 20.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Commanders32.3%leaned — sent pressure · +11.2 vs their 21.0%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+1.12× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 44%
Tendencies room →Titans14.0%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Commanders38.7%off script — got home · +19.9 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+2.03× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
WAS's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 38.7%, 19.9 points above their season mean of 18.8% and 2.0 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · WAS
25/38, 359 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
0.7 expected points added · +1.5% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
15/25, 181 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-0.6 expected points added · +5.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Dyami Brown banked 15.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 27.2 | +0.7 | 64% | 39% | 9% | 0% | 28 car, 102 yd, 2 TD · 2/2, 30 yd |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 24.5 | +15.3 | 32% | 37% | 11% | 38% | 2/4, 105 yd, 2 TD |
| Carson WentzQB · Starter QB | 21.9 | +2.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/38, 359 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 15 yd |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.6 | +3.4 | 98% | 93% | 16% | 17% | 5/6, 76 yd |
| Dontrell HilliardRB · Receiving Back | 12.3 | +5.5 | 31% | 55% | 22% | 1% | 1 car, 0 yd · 4/5, 23 yd, 1 TD |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Featured Receiver | 12.2 | +0.5 | 90% | 88% | 22% | 19% | 6/8, 62 yd |
| Ryan TannehillQB · Starter QB | 11.5 | −1.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/25, 181 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 3 yd |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.2 | +2.9 | 92% | 90% | 13% | 50% | 2/3, 72 yd |
| J.D. McKissicRB · Receiving Back | 8.7 | −5.7 | 41% | 49% | 19% | 1% | 5/7, 37 yd |
| Robert WoodsWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.7 | −3.3 | 84% | 90% | 35% | 19% | 4/8, 37 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB · Receiving Back | 6.9 | −0.4 | 32% | 33% | 11% | 3% | 3 car, 6 yd · 3/4, 33 yd |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.9 | +2.3 | 59% | 53% | 8% | 7% | 3/3, 39 yd |
| Brian RobinsonRB | 2.2 | −2.2 | 29% | 14% | 0% | — | 9 car, 22 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.3 | 53% | 68% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Kyle PhilipsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.0 | 28% | 48% | 9% | 6% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Cam SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.6 | 59% | 56% | 5% | 8% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Geoff SwaimTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | 0.0 | 66% | 35% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Hassan HaskinsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Chigoziem OkonkwoTE | 0.0 | −2.9 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Kevin RaderTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dez FitzpatrickWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cody HollisterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 31% | 13% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jonathan WilliamsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Cole TurnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.2 | 51% | 47% | 8% | 6% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Armani RogersTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dax MilneWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 7 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:09) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left intended for 23-J.McKissic INTERCEPTED by 51-D.Long at TEN 1. 51-D.Long to TEN 47 for 46 yards (72-C.Leno). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left intended for 23-J.McKissic INTERCEPTED by 51-D.Long at TEN 1. 51-D.Long to TEN 1 for no gain (23-J.McKissic).
Q4 0:09 · Commanders · 3rd & goal at TEN 2 · gained nothing · -3.65 EP · −44.2% win probability
162 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 173 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 87 yards from the WAS 11 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Titans6
Commanders0Titans7Commanders0Titans7Commanders3How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Titans7Commanders9Titans7Commanders10Titans13Commanders10Titans14Commanders10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Titans14Commanders16Titans14Commanders17How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
Titans20Commanders17Titans21Commanders17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Titans at Commanders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 15/25 | 181 | 1 | 0 | 5 | −0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 28 | 102 | 3.6 | 2 | +1.9 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 3 | 72 | 0 | 13% | +4.0 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 8 | 37 | 0 | 35% | −2.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Long Jr. | 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kevin Byard | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Terrance Mitchell |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 25/38 | 359 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +0.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_05_TEN_WAS
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Titans closed -1 and covered, winning by 4.
Total closed 43; the game landed 38 — under by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 | 9% | +2.6 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 4 | 5 | 23 | 1 | 22% | +4.1 |
| Kyle Philips | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 9% | −0.8 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +2.3 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Denico Autry | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Cole | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Rader | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kristian Fulton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Adams | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua Kalu | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 |
| 22 |
| 2.4 |
| 0 |
| −0.8 |
| Carson Wentz | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dyami Brown | 2 | 4 | 105 | 2 | 11% | +6.4 |
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 6 | 76 | 0 | 16% | +3.2 |
| Curtis Samuel | 6 | 8 | 62 | 0 | 22% | −0.5 |
| John Bates | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 8% | +2.3 |
| J.D. McKissic | 5 | 7 | 37 | 0 | 19% | −4.9 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 11% | +2.0 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 5% | −1.0 |
| Cole Turner | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −2.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Holcomb | 10 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby McCain | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Montez Sweat | 4 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamin Davis | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Fuller | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Smith-Williams | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Payne | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Efe Obada | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Allen | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrick Forrest | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
