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Arizona Cardinals 9 at Seattle Seahawks 19. Final.
Cardinals -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2022 Week 6
Seattle Seahawks 19, Cardinals 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 0:59, 4th and 19, on Michael Dickson — 10.4 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 0:59 · 4th and 19
Michael Dickson
Cardinals
(:59) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson up the middle to SEA -2 for -12 yards (47-E.Turner). FUMBLES (47-E.Turner), RECOVERED by ARI-31-C.Banjo at SEA -4. TOUCHDOWN.
U 50 ✓
Cardinals closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Seattle Seahawks 19–9. Biggest swing: Q3 0:59, Cardinals +10.4% win probability on one snap.
10.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kyler MurrayCardinalsQ1 13:45(13:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray right guard ran ob at SEA 33 for 42 yards (26-R.Neal).
8.9pts
Kyler MurraySeahawksQ3 9:19(9:19) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to 18-A.Green.
9.3pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 41% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — -0.09 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.29 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — 1 giveaway, against Cardinals at 2 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Seahawks won this one — 1 touchdown on 5 trips, against Cardinals at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Cardinals172 of 185 plays carry both curves
(:59) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson up the middle to SEA -2 for -12 yards (47-E.Turner). FUMBLES (47-E.Turner), RECOVERED by ARI-31-C.Banjo at SEA -4. TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −10.4 for SeahawksExpected points −4.79 for SeahawksThe model had Seahawks 12 points higher than the market did.play 124
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 0:59ARI +10% win prob(:59) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson up the middle to SEA -2 for -12 yards (47-E.Turner). FUMBLES (47-E.Turner), RECOVERED by ARI-31-C.Banjo at SEA -4. TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 9:19ARI +9% win prob(9:19) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to 18-A.Green.
1st · 13:45SEA +9% win prob(13:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray right guard ran ob at SEA 33 for 42 yards (26-R.Neal).
4th · 10:12ARI +9% win prob(10:12) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at SEA 35 for -12 yards (77-Q.Jefferson).
1st · 12:26SEA +9% win prob(12:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 4-R.Moore to SEA 3 for 26 yards (13-J.Jones).
1st · 8:57SEA +8% win prob(8:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-K.Walker right guard ran ob at ARI 19 for 34 yards (34-J.Thompson).
2nd · 15:00
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jason Myers's 27-yard field goal with 6:09 left in the 2nd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:24Matt Ammendola·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+33–0
1st6:46Jason Myers·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Tinker+33–3
2nd6:09Jason Myers·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.TinkerLead never changed again+33–6
2nd0:04Jason Myers·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Tinker+33–9
3rd4:15Jason Myers·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Tinker+33–12
3rd0:59Chris Banjo·defence TDtouchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · kick no good, wide left+69–12
Seahawks ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.20Cardinals: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.19Seahawks: −0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.26Cardinals: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.12Seahawks: −0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Cardinals: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.29Seahawks: −0.29 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 71 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 66 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 2, Seahawks 5.
NoteCardinals outgained Seahawks 315-296 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's blitz rate sent turned over: 40.7% in week 5 against 12.8% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +2.0 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Seahawks17.0%
right on their number · +1.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
NoteARI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -7.9 pts, 6.2 points below their season mean of -1.7 pts and 1.5 times their own 4.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Murray right+12% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray right guard ran ob at SEA 33 for 42 yards (26-R.Neal).
Q1 13:45 · Cardinals · 3rd & 4 at ARI 25 · gained 42 · +3.85 EP · +12.2% win probability
170 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 185 snaps, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 76 yards from the ARI 19 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
-0.15
Success rate
34%
Yards
611
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54-0.2765%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.0862%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25-0.2048%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.0247%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8-0.0550%
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 0 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
Cardinals3Seahawks0
Field goal11 plays, from the Cardinals 19 to the Seahawks 1
Cardinals3Seahawks3
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cardinals 15
The period ended15 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Seahawks 19
2nd quarter51 plays
Turnover on downs1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 29
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 24 to the Cardinals 27
Cardinals3Seahawks6
Field goal11 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the Cardinals 7
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Seahawks 49
Punt10 plays, from the Seahawks 18 to the Seahawks 29
Punt5 plays
Cardinals3Seahawks9
Field goal9 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Cardinals 11
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 32
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Cardinals 40 to the Seahawks 27
Cardinals3Seahawks12
Field goal12 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Cardinals 8
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Seahawks 39
Cardinals9Seahawks12
Touchdown4 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 40
4th quarter56 plays
Cardinals9Seahawks18
Cardinals9Seahawks19
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 44 to the Cardinals 11
The period ended11 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Seahawks 22
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 48 to the Cardinals 46
Intercepted11 plays, from the Cardinals 7 to the Cardinals 45
Punt10 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 46
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cardinals -2.5
Closing total
50
Cardinals moneyline
-136
Seahawks moneyline
+123
Cardinals closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 50; the game landed 28 — under by 22.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Warm, 80°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Cardinals 7 days · Seahawks 7 days
Coaches
Kliff Kingsbury vs Pete Carroll
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
ARI +8% win prob
(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 4-R.Moore.
2nd · 1:12ARI +8% win prob(1:12) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 27 for -9 yards (52-D.Taylor). FUMBLES (52-D.Taylor), touched at ARI 26, recovered by ARI-68-K.Beachum at ARI 24. Penalty on ARI, Illegal Formation, declined.
