2022 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 16, 2022 · Lumen Field

Arizona Cardinals

Seattle SeahawksWinner

ARI -2.5 upsetU 50 ✓Cardinals closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Seattle Seahawks 19–9. Biggest swing: Q3 0:59, ARI +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 0:59ARI 9 — SEA 12SEA ball · 4th & 19SEA 68%

(:59) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson up the middle to SEA -2 for -12 yards (47-E.Turner). FUMBLES (47-E.Turner), RECOVERED by ARI-31-C.Banjo at SEA -4. TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 0:59ARI +10% win prob(:59) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson up the middle to SEA -2 for -12 yards (47-E.Turner). FUMBLES (47-E.Turner), RECOVERED by ARI-31-C.Banjo at SEA -4. TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 9:19ARI +9% win prob(9:19) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to 18-A.Green.
Q1 · 13:45SEA +9% win prob(13:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray right guard ran ob at SEA 33 for 42 yards (26-R.Neal).
Q4 · 10:12ARI +9% win prob(10:12) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at SEA 35 for -12 yards (77-Q.Jefferson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:24ARI Field goal
(10:24) 15-M.Ammendola 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
Score after this play: ARI 3 — SEA 0
Q1 · 6:46SEA Field goal
(6:46) 5-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: ARI 3 — SEA 3
Q2 · 6:09SEA Field goal
(6:09) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: ARI 3 — SEA 6
Q2 · 0:04SEA Field goal
(:04) 5-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: ARI 3 — SEA 9
Q3 · 4:15SEA Field goal
(4:15) 5-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: ARI 3 — SEA 12
Q3 · 0:59ARI Touchdown
(:59) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson up the middle to SEA -2 for -12 yards (47-E.Turner). FUMBLES (47-E.Turner), RECOVERED by ARI-31-C.Banjo at SEA -4. TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: ARI 9 — SEA 12
Q4 · 13:31SEA Touchdown
(13:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 9 — SEA 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Seahawks
Offensive plays	71	66
Total yards	315 (edge)	296
Yards per play	4.4	4.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.20	-0.19 (edge)
Success rate	32%	41% (edge)
Dropback rate	66%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	-0.12 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09 (edge)	-0.29
Third downs	5/16 (edge)	4/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	16	17 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	5 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Cardinals outgained Seahawks 315–296 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

23/37, 222 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-11.7 expected points added · +0.6% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

20/31, 197 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-6.3 expected points added · -3.0% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

10 att, 100 yds, 0 TD

2.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth WalkerRB

21 att, 97 yds, 1 TD

-3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Zach ErtzTE

7/10 for 70 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Marquise BrownWR

5/9 for 68 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 19	11	76	4:40	Field goal +3
2	SEA	SEA 25	9	59	3:39	Field goal +3
3	ARI	ARI 25	15	55	6:46	Turnover on downs
4	SEA	SEA 20	4	7	2:06	Punt
5	ARI	ARI 24	4	-6	2:00	Punt
6	SEA	SEA 40	10	51	4:44	Field goal +3
7	ARI	ARI 25	6	20	2:53	Punt
8	SEA	SEA 18	7	15	1:55	Punt
9	ARI	ARI 36	4	-1	0:22	Punt
10	SEA	SEA 32	7	57	0:55	Field goal +3
11	SEA	SEA 25	5	-1	1:34	Punt
12	ARI	ARI 40	9	43	4:15	Turnover on downs
13	SEA	SEA 28	9	38	5:00	Field goal +3
14	ARI	ARI 25	5	50	1:51	Fumble
15	SEA	SEA 19	4	-19	1:26	Defensive touchdown
16	SEA	SEA 25	9	75	2:30	Touchdown +7
17	ARI	ARI 25	9	45	3:18	Turnover on downs
18	SEA	SEA 35	4	-13	1:42	Punt
19	ARI	ARI 17	4	-9	0:43	Punt
20	SEA	ARI 48	4	2	1:01	Punt
21	ARI	ARI 7	11	37	2:48	Interception
22	SEA	SEA 25	8	25	2:44	Punt
23	ARI	ARI 30	3	5	1:08	End of game

6 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 76 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	23/37	222	0	1	6	-11.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kyler Murray	10	100	10.0	2.9
Eno Benjamin	15	37	2.5	-4.8
Keaontay Ingram	3	7	2.3	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Zach Ertz	7	10	70	28%	3.2
Marquise Brown	5	9	68	25%	2.2
Rondale Moore	6	10	49	28%	-2.5
Eno Benjamin	3	3	28	8%	2.8
A.J. Green	2	4	7	11%	-6.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Zaven Collins	4	4	2.0	1
Markus Golden	4	4	1.0	0
Jalen Thompson	4	2	0.0	0
Marco Wilson	4	2	0.0	1
Rashard Lawrence	4	1	0.0	0
Byron Murphy	3	1	0.0	1
Budda Baker	2	1	0.0	0
Zach Allen	1	2	0.0	0
Tanner Vallejo	0	2	0.0	1
Isaiah Simmons	1	1	0.0	2

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Geno Smith	20/31	197	0	0	5	-6.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kenneth Walker	21	97	4.6	1	-3.2
Geno Smith	6	48	8.0	0	1.8
DeeJay Dallas	2	1	0.5	0	-0.0
Michael Dickson	1	-10	-10.0	0	-4.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Noah Fant	6	7	45	23%	1.2
D'Wayne Eskridge	3	3	39	10%	2.3
DK Metcalf	2	7	34	23%	-0.2
Marquise Goodwin	2	2	26	7%	1.0
Tyler Lockett	2	5	17	17%	-1.1
Kenneth Walker	2	3	13	10%	-0.3
Will Dissly	1	1	12	3%	1.1
Colby Parkinson	2	2	11	7%	0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordyn Brooks	5	5	0.0	0	0
Ryan Neal	6	1	1.0	0	1
Coby Bryant	4	3	0.0	0	1
Michael Jackson	5	0	0.0	0	0
Tariq Woolen	5	0	0.0	1	1
Quandre Diggs	2	2	0.0	0	0
Quinton Jefferson	2	2	1.0	0	0
Boye Mafe	2	1	0.0	0	0
Poona Ford	2	1	1.0	0	1
Uchenna Nwosu	3	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ARI -2.5
Closing total: 50
ARI moneyline: -136
SEA moneyline: +123

Cardinals closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 50; the game landed 28 — under by 22.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lumen Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: ARI 7 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches: Kliff Kingsbury vs Pete Carroll

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.