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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:24 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 16, 2022 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 6
It turned at Q4 3:05, 3rd and 5, on Julian Love — 29.1 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:05 · 3rd and 5
Julian Love
Giants
(3:05) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson to BAL 35 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at BAL 27. 8-L.Jackson pass intended for 42-P.Ricard INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Love at BAL 40. 20-J.Love to BAL 13 for 27 yards (70-K.Zeitler). NYG-53-O.Ximines was injured during the play.
New York Giants 24–20. Biggest swing: Q4 3:05, Giants +29.1% win probability on one snap.
29.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Giants at 0 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — +0.29 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.10 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Giants won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Ravens at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Giants won this one — +0.32 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at +0.02 expected points per dropback.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 17.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(3:05) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson to BAL 35 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at BAL 27. 8-L.Jackson pass intended for 42-P.Ricard INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Love at BAL 40. 20-J.Love to BAL 13 for 27 yards (70-K.Zeitler). NYG-53-
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Saquon Barkley's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 1:46 left in the 4th put New York Giants ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ravenscategory by categoryGiants
Ravens ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 58 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Giants’s 59 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 4, Giants 5.
Ravens outgained Giants 406-242 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BAL's blitz rate sent, 43.8%, is past their previous high of 31.0% in week 4 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
NYG's play-action rate, 12.5%, is past their previous low of 18.6% in week 2 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Ravens2.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · +7.0 vs their -5.0 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 58 snaps
Giants-10.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their -5.8 pts, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 85%
Tendencies room →Ravens60.4%inside their normal wobble · +9.6 vs their 50.8%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 48 early downs
Giants43.5%inside their normal wobble · −8.4 vs their 51.9%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 59%
Tendencies room →Ravens8.3%leaned — dropped back clean · −16.4 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (−1.20× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Giants12.5%leaned — dropped back clean · −12.2 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±12.2 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 103%
Fourth Down room →Ravens—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 34.5%.
Giants—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 24.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 69%
Tendencies room →Ravens43.8%leaned — sent pressure · +17.2 vs their 26.5%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+1.66× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Giants36.1%right on their number · −3.7 vs their 39.8%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 38%
Tendencies room →Ravens18.8%inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Giants8.3%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.5 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
BAL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 43.8%, 17.2 points above their season mean of 26.5% and 1.7 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New York Giants
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · BAL
17/32, 210 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-1.6 expected points added · -7.8% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
19/27, 173 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
10.2 expected points added · +9.9% completion over expected
Receiving · NYG
5/5 for 38 yds, 1 TD
20% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Kenyan Drake banked 10.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark AndrewsTE · Alpha Receiver | 23.6 | −1.7 | 92% | 92% | 34% | 49% | 7/11, 106 yd, 1 TD |
| Kenyan DrakeRB · Committee Back | 19.7 | +10.9 | 58% | 50% | 6% | 0% | 10 car, 119 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 8 yd |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.5 | +0.3 | 88% | 88% | 12% | 5% | 22 car, 83 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 12 yd |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 16.1 | −9.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/32, 210 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 77 yd |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Featured Receiver | 14.8 | +6.0 | 94% | 91% | 20% | 8% | 5/5, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| Daniel JonesQB · Starter QB | 13.5 | −2.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/27, 173 yd, 2 TD · 6 car, 6 yd |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.7 | +5.0 | 23% | 34% | 16% | 20% | 3/4, 37 yd, 1 TD |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | −3.8 | 76% | 72% | 16% | 17% | 3/5, 27 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | −3.2 | 22% | 33% | 13% | 8% | 2/4, 30 yd |
| Marcus JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | −3.5 | 62% | 75% | 16% | 27% | 2/4, 25 yd |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | −1.1 | 36% | 28% | 9% | 8% | 2/3, 21 yd |
| Richie JamesWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | +1.1 | 34% | 38% | 8% | 4% | 2/2, 18 yd |
| Matt BreidaRB | 3.1 | −1.6 | 25% | 19% | 8% | 5% | 3 car, -6 yd · 2/2, 17 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −3.4 | 69% | 72% | 12% | 20% | 1/3, 18 yd |
| Devin DuvernayWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −8.7 | 68% | 75% | 16% | 18% | 1/5, 14 yd |
| David SillsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −0.8 | 35% | 28% | 8% | 4% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| J.K. DobbinsRB | 1.5 | −2.1 | 27% | 22% | 0% | — | 7 car, 15 yd |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | +0.1 | 22% | 19% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Patrick RicardRB | 0.0 | −1.4 | 76% | 61% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Gary BrightwellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:05) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson to BAL 35 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at BAL 27. 8-L.Jackson pass intended for 42-P.Ricard INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Love at BAL 40. 20-J.Love to BAL 13 for 27 yards (70-K.Zeitler). NYG-53-O.Ximines was injured during the play.
Q4 3:05 · Ravens · 3rd & 5 at BAL 40 · gained nothing · -5.59 EP · −36.5% win probability
155 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 167 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, manual charting on 140. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 89 yards from the BAL 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Ravens6
Giants0Ravens7Giants0How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Ravens7Giants6Ravens7Giants7Ravens10Giants7Ravens13Giants7How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Ravens13Giants10Ravens19Giants10Ravens20Giants10Ravens20Giants16Ravens20Giants17How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Ravens20Giants23Ravens20Giants24How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Ravens at Giants, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 17/32 | 210 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −1.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 10 | 119 | 11.9 | 1 | +6.7 |
| Lamar Jackson | 7 | 77 | 11.0 | 0 | +5.3 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 | −3.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 7 | 11 | 106 | 1 | 34% | +8.0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 13% | +0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Queen | 5 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Geno Stone | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Harrison |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 19/27 | 173 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +10.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_06_BAL_NYG
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 44 — under by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 16% | +1.3 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 9% | +1.1 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 16% | −1.7 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | +0.6 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Patrick Ricard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −5.6 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Josh Bynes | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calais Campbell | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuck Clark | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Broderick Washington | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Jones | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damarion Williams | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 |
| 83 |
| 3.8 |
| 1 |
| −0.4 |
| Daniel Jones | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | −5.8 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | -6 | -2.0 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Bellinger | 5 | 5 | 38 | 1 | 20% | +4.6 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 3 | 4 | 37 | 1 | 16% | +5.3 |
| Marcus Johnson | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 16% | +1.6 |
| Richie James | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 8% | +0.8 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 12% | +1.3 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 8% | +0.5 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 12% | +1.3 |
| David Sills | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 8% | +0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier McKinney | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Belton | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Fabian Moreau | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Love | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Adoree' Jackson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tae Crowder | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Smith | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Williams | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jihad Ward | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
