2022 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 16, 2022 · SoFi Stadium

Carolina Panthers

Los Angeles RamsWinner

LA -10 ✓U 41.5 ✓DomeRams closed -10 and covered, winning by 14.

Los Angeles Rams 24–10. Biggest swing: Q2 2:08, CAR +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 2:08CAR 9 — LA 7LA ball · 2nd & 7LA 84%

(2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at LA 30. 26-D.Jackson for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 2:08CAR +23% win prob(2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at LA 30. 26-D.Jackson for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 0:16LA +12% win prob(:16) 18-B.Skowronek right end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 9:05LA +9% win prob(9:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp to CAR 41 for 22 yards (24-C.Henderson).
Q3 · 8:33LA +9% win prob(8:33) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 1-Al.Robinson pushed ob at CAR 38 for 15 yards (28-K.Taylor). Carolina challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:42CAR Field goal
(8:42) 4-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: CAR 3 — LA 0
Q2 · 3:39LA Touchdown
(3:39) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 1-Al.Robinson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 3 — LA 7
Q2 · 2:08CAR Touchdown
(2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at LA 30. 26-D.Jackson for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 10 — LA 7
Q3 · 4:40LA Field goal
(4:40) 8-M.Gay 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: CAR 10 — LA 10
Q3 · 0:16LA Touchdown
(:16) 18-B.Skowronek right end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 10 — LA 17
Q4 · 8:20LA Touchdown
(8:20) 27-D.Henderson right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 10 — LA 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Rams
Offensive plays	43	61
Total yards	204	363 (edge)
Yards per play	4.7	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.35	0.01 (edge)
Success rate	33%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	53%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.56	0.09 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11	-0.09 (edge)
Third downs	2/10	6/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	8	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.35.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

26/33, 253 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

3.1 expected points added · +8.3% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

P.J. WalkerQB

10/16, 60 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-10.7 expected points added · -19.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

13 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Darrell HendersonRB

12 att, 43 yds, 1 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

7/8 for 89 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

7/8 for 80 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · -2.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 25	13	61	6:22	Field goal +3
2	LA	LA 35	7	15	3:41	Punt
3	CAR	CAR 13	8	44	4:43	Punt
4	LA	LA 7	4	9	1:33	Punt
5	CAR	CAR 24	4	4	2:09	Punt
6	LA	LA 27	14	88	7:58	Touchdown +7
7	CAR	CAR 25	5	9	0:59	Punt
8	LA	LA 20	2	3	0:37	Defensive touchdown
9	LA	LA 25	5	13	1:42	Punt
10	CAR	CAR 35	1	0	0:16	End of half
11	LA	LA 25	5	1	2:36	Punt
12	CAR	CAR 37	4	4	1:01	Punt
13	LA	LA 10	12	72	6:46	Field goal +3
14	CAR	CAR 25	5	7	1:36	Punt
15	LA	LA 20	6	80	2:50	Touchdown +7
16	CAR	CAR 20	5	5	1:39	Punt
17	LA	LA 39	11	61	5:17	Touchdown +7
18	CAR	CAR 25	6	10	2:11	Punt
19	LA	LA 14	4	11	1:45	Punt
20	CAR	CAR 33	6	60	1:59	Interception
21	LA	LA 20	5	10	2:20	End of game

5 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 88 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
P.J. Walker	10/16	60	0	0	2	-10.7
Jacob Eason	3/5	59	0	1	0	-2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	13	69	5.3	-1.4
D'Onta Foreman	5	19	3.8	-0.9
Chuba Hubbard	2	6	3.0	0.1
P.J. Walker	1	-1	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	7	8	89	38%	2.5
Ian Thomas	2	2	22	10%	1.0
D.J. Moore	3	7	7	33%	-5.6
Chuba Hubbard	1	1	1	5%	-1.2
Shi Smith	0	2	0	10%	-6.9
Terrace Marshall	0	1	0	5%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Cory Littleton	5	4	0.5	0
Myles Hartsfield	6	2	0.0	0
Derrick Brown	3	4	0.5	0
Keith Taylor	4	1	0.0	0
C.J. Henderson	3	1	0.0	0
Shaq Thompson	4	0	0.0	2
Juston Burris	1	2	0.0	0
Brian Burns	1	2	0.0	0
Yetur Gross-Matos	1	2	0.0	0
Xavier Woods	2	0	0.0	0

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	26/33	253	1	1	1	3.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Darrell Henderson	12	43	3.6	1	0.1
Cooper Kupp	2	17	8.5	0	0.5
Ben Skowronek	1	17	17.0	1	2.0
Malcolm Brown	7	15	2.1	0	-5.2
Brandon Powell	3	13	4.3	0	-0.1
Tutu Atwell	1	9	9.0	0	0.9
Ronnie Rivers	1	0	0.0	0	-0.7
Matthew Stafford	2	-3	-1.5	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	7	8	80	0	26%	-2.1
Allen Robinson	5	6	63	1	19%	4.6
Ben Skowronek	5	5	40	0	16%	1.5
Brandon Powell	4	5	27	0	16%	2.2
Ronnie Rivers	1	1	14	0	3%	1.0
Malcolm Brown	1	1	13	0	3%	0.8
Darrell Henderson	2	3	9	0	10%	0.6
Tyler Higbee	1	2	7	0	6%	-0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
A'Shawn Robinson	3	3	0.0	0
Marquise Copeland	1	4	1.0	0
Taylor Rapp	1	4	0.0	0
Bobby Wagner	2	3	0.0	0
Ernest Jones	2	2	0.0	1
Aaron Donald	0	4	0.0	1
Leonard Floyd	1	3	0.0	0
Derion Kendrick	2	1	0.0	1
Jalen Ramsey	3	0	1.0	0
Justin Hollins	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -10
Closing total: 41.5
CAR moneyline: +343
LA moneyline: -413

Rams closed -10 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 34 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Tra Blake
Rest: CAR 7 days · LA 7 days
Coaches: Steve Wilks vs Sean McVay