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polling · 300s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 16, 2022 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 6
It turned at Q2 2:08, 2nd and 7, on Donte Jackson — 22.8 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
Los Angeles Rams 24–10. Biggest swing: Q2 2:08, Panthers +22.8% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:08 · 2nd and 7
Donte Jackson
Panthers
(2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at LA 30. 26-D.Jackson for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
22.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Rams won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Panthers at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.09 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.56 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Rams won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Panthers at 2 of 10 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.01 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.35 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 15.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at LA 30. 26-D.Jackson for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Ben Skowronek's 17-yard rushing touchdown with 0:16 left in the 3rd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Pantherscategory by categoryRams
Rams ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 43 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Rams’s 61 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 1, Rams 4.
Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.35.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
LA's sack or hit rate turned over: 36.8% in week 5 against 13.0% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points. · −0.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Panthers-15.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · −7.3 vs their -8.4 pts, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 43 snaps
Rams-0.1 ptsright on their number · +3.3 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 93%
Tendencies room →Panthers48.5%right on their number · −1.2 vs their 49.7%, and they swing ±16.8 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 33 early downs
Rams55.1%right on their number · −1.9 vs their 57.0%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 60%
Tendencies room →Panthers13.0%leaned — dropped back clean · −12.9 vs their 25.9%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Rams32.4%right on their number · +3.9 vs their 28.5%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -52% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Panthers0.0%inside their normal wobble · −24.5 vs their 24.5%, and they swing ±24.8 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Rams0.0%leaned — took the kick · −37.8 vs their 37.8%, and they swing ±35.2 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 57%
Tendencies room →Panthers35.3%inside their normal wobble · +5.4 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Rams30.4%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 36%
Tendencies room →Panthers5.9%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.3 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Rams13.0%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
CAR's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 13.0%, 12.9 points below their season mean of 25.9% and 1.1 times their own 11.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LA
26/33, 253 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
3.1 expected points added · +8.3% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
10/16, 60 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-10.7 expected points added · -19.8% completion over expected
Receiving · CAR
7/8 for 89 yds, 0 TD
38% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Christian McCaffrey banked 6.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 22.8 | +6.0 | 86% | 87% | 38% | 0% | 13 car, 69 yd · 7/8, 89 yd |
| Ian ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | +1.5 | 52% | 39% | 10% | 0% | 2/2, 22 yd |
| D.J. MooreWR · Alpha Receiver | 3.7 | −6.4 | 100% | 100% | 33% | — | 3/7, 7 yd |
| P.J. WalkerQB · Starter QB | 2.3 | −1.5 | 84% | — | 0% | — | 10/16, 60 yd · 1 car, -1 yd |
| D'Onta ForemanRB | 1.9 | −0.1 | 23% | 22% | 0% | — | 5 car, 19 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB | 1.7 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jacob EasonQB | 0.4 | −2.0 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Raheem BlackshearRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Stephen SullivanTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Shi SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.0 | 55% | 65% | 10% | 26% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Terrace MarshallWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 45% | 65% | 5% | 21% | 0/1, 0 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at LA 30. 26-D.Jackson for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 2:08 · Rams · 2nd & 7 at LA 23 · gained nothing · -8.08 EP · −26.7% win probability
140 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 152 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, manual charting on 128. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 87 yards from the LA 10 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
152 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
152 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Panthers3
Rams0How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Panthers3Rams6Panthers3Rams7How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Panthers9Rams7Panthers10Rams7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Panthers10Rams10How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Panthers10Rams16Panthers10Rams17Panthers10Rams23Panthers10Rams24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Panthers at Rams, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Walker | 10/16 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −10.7 |
| Jacob Eason | 3/5 | 59 | 0 | 1 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 13 | 69 | 5.3 | 0 | −1.4 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 8 | 89 | 0 | 38% | +2.5 |
| Ian Thomas | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Littleton | 5 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Hartsfield | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Brown |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 26/33 | 253 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_06_CAR_LA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Rams closed -10 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 34 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| P.J. Walker | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| 10% |
| +1.0 |
| D.J. Moore | 3 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 33% | −5.6 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5% | −1.2 |
| Shi Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −6.9 |
| Terrace Marshall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.7 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Keith Taylor | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Henderson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaq Thompson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Juston Burris | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Burns | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Woods | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 1 | +0.1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 1 | +2.0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 | −5.2 |
| Brandon Powell | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 7 | 8 | 80 | 0 | 26% | −2.1 |
| Allen Robinson | 5 | 6 | 63 | 1 | 19% | +4.6 |
| Ben Skowronek | 5 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 16% | +1.5 |
| Brandon Powell | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 16% | +2.2 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | +1.0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Darrell Henderson | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 10% | +0.6 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6% | −0.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'Shawn Robinson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquise Copeland | 1 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Rapp | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Wagner | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ernest Jones | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Aaron Donald | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Leonard Floyd | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derion Kendrick | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Hollins | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
