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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:55 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Bengals162 of 174 plays carry both curves
(2:10) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 10, YAC 50
Swing −34.1 for SaintsExpected points −5.12 for SaintsThe model had Saints 9 points higher than the market did.play 159
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:10NO +34% win prob(2:10) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 10, YAC 50
4th · 0:39CIN +18% win prob(:39) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at CIN 48 for -7 yards (sack split by 92-B.Hill and 94-S.Hubbard).
2nd · 13:49NO +16% win prob(13:49) 89-R.Shaheed right end for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:16CIN +15% win prob(2:16) 4-B.Gillikin punts 29 yards to CIN 40, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.
4th · 5:55CIN +12% win prob(5:55) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at NO 31 for -7 yards (56-D.Davis).
4th · 5:12CIN +11% win prob(5:12) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at NO 41 for -10 yards (55-K.Elliss).
1st · 13:43CIN +11% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ja'Marr Chase's 60-yard touchdown catch with 2:10 left in the 4th put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:39Tre'Quan Smith·18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+70–7
1st0:51Joe Mixon·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+77–7
2nd0:05Wil Lutz·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.Wood+314–20
3rd7:16Wil Lutz·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.Wood+314–23
3rd3:36Ja'Marr Chase·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+721–23
4th11:11Wil Lutz·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.Wood+321–26
4th3:47Evan McPherson·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Adomitis+324–26
4th2:10Ja'Marr Chase·60-yd TD catch60-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow · two-point no goodLead never changed again+630–26
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categorySaints
Bengals4–3Saints
349Total yards399
6.5Yards per play5.6
59%Success rate46%
60%Third-down rate47%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays9
21First downs21
3Sacks taken1
0Turnovers0
The read
Bengals ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.28Bengals: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.11Saints: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.31Bengals: +0.31 expected points added per play
+0.10Saints: +0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.16Bengals: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.12Saints: +0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 54 snaps at a 80% dropback rate against Saints’s 71 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 4, Saints 6.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
CIN's pass rate over expected, +19.7 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 5.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +9.3 pts in week 3.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 5.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CIN's play-action rate, 2.4%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 0.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 11.1% in week 2.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 5.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
CIN's blitz rate sent turned over: 42.9% in week 5 against 13.5% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 29 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.0 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Saints14.0%
right on their number · +1.1 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteCIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 19.7 pts, 11.7 points above their season mean of 8.0 pts and 1.5 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass+40% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:10) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 10, YAC 50
Q4 2:10 · Bengals · 1st & 10 at CIN 40 · gained 60 · +5.12 EP · +39.9% win probability
160 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, manual charting on 141. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 75 yards from the CIN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
46%
Yards
747
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54+0.2876%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.2063%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.0343%
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 4 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints3 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 34
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 32 to the Saints 33
Bengals0Saints6
Bengals0Saints7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bengals 32 to the Bengals 18
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 22 to the Bengals 42
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 18 to the Saints 32
Bengals6Saints7
Bengals7Saints7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Saints 9
The period ended4 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 33
2nd quarter50 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Bengals7Saints13
Bengals7Saints14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Saints 40 to the Bengals 44
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 34
Bengals7Saints17
Field goal6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Bengals 16
Bengals13Saints17
Bengals14Saints17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Saints 19
Bengals14Saints20
Field goal20 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Bengals 12
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Bengals14Saints23
Field goal18 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Bengals 19
Bengals20Saints23
Bengals21Saints23
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 26 to the Saints 15
The period ended8 plays, from the Saints 21 to the Bengals 42
4th quarter45 plays
Bengals21Saints26
Field goal8 plays, from the Bengals 39 to the Bengals 13
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSix
Bengals24Saints26
Field goal16 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Saints 24
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 31
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Bengals30Saints26
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
The period ended12 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Bengals 41
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
