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2022 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 16, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

30

New Orleans Saints

26

CIN -3 ✓O 42.5 ✓Dome

Cincinnati Bengals 30–26. Biggest swing: Q4 2:10, NO +34% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NO ↑CIN ↓
Q4 · 2:10CIN 30 — NO 26CIN ball · 1st & 10NO 54%

(2:10) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 10, YAC 50

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 2:10NO +34% win prob(2:10) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 10, YAC 50
  2. Q4 · 0:39CIN +18% win prob(:39) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at CIN 48 for -7 yards (sack split by 92-B.Hill and 94-S.Hubbard).
  3. Q2 · 13:49NO +16% win prob(13:49) 89-R.Shaheed right end for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 2:16CIN +15% win prob(2:16) 4-B.Gillikin punts 29 yards to CIN 40, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:39NO Touchdown

    (10:39) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 10-T.Smith for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 15, YAC 3 (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 0 — NO 7
  2. Q1 · 0:51CIN Touchdown

    (:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 28-J.Mixon for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 4, YAC 5 (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 7 — NO 7
  3. Q2 · 13:49NO Touchdown

    (13:49) 89-R.Shaheed right end for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 7 — NO 14
  4. Q2 · 10:32NO Field goal

    (10:32) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

    Score after this play: CIN 7 — NO 17
  5. Q2 · 5:53CIN Touchdown

    (5:53) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles left guard for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 14 — NO 17
  6. Q2 · 0:05NO Field goal

    (:05) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

    Score after this play: CIN 14 — NO 20
  7. Q3 · 7:16NO Field goal

    (7:16) 3-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

    Score after this play: CIN 14 — NO 23
  8. Q3 · 3:36CIN Touchdown

    (3:36) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 21 — NO 23
  9. Q4 · 11:11NO Field goal

    (11:11) 3-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

    Score after this play: CIN 21 — NO 26
  10. Q4 · 3:47CIN Field goal

    (3:47) 2-E.McPherson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.

    Score after this play: CIN 24 — NO 26
  11. Q4 · 2:10CIN Touchdown

    (2:10) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 10, YAC 50

    Score after this play: CIN 30 — NO 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBengalsSaints
Offensive plays5471
Total yards349399 (edge)
Yards per play6.5 (edge)5.6
Expected points added / play0.28 (edge)0.11
Success rate59% (edge)46%
Dropback rate80%52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.31 (edge)0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.16 (edge)0.12
Third downs6/10 (edge)8/17
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)59 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps2121
Sacks taken31 (edge)
Turnovers00

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

28/37, 300 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

9.8 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Andy DaltonQB

17/32, 162 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

3.3 expected points added · -7.5% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

19 att, 99 yds, 0 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Mark IngramRB

9 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

7/10 for 132 yds, 2 TD

28% of team targets · 9.2 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Tyler BoydWR

6/6 for 66 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CINCIN 255-12:06Punt
2NONO 32410:56Punt
3NOCIN 324321:25Touchdown +7
4CINCIN 227202:13Punt
5NONO 185141:40Punt
6CINCIN 2513615:55Touchdown +7
7NONO 257752:06Touchdown +7
8CINCIN 25591:00Punt
9NONO 256592:11Field goal +3
10CINCIN 2512754:44Touchdown +7
11NONO 2515635:43Field goal +3
12CIN—100:01End of half
13NONO 2515617:48Field goal +3
14CINCIN 269743:42Touchdown +7
15NONO 2115667:23Field goal +3
16CINCIN 2514517:25Field goal +3
17NONO 25561:32Punt
18CINCIN 402600:13Touchdown +6
19NONO 3010221:30Turnover on downs
20CINCIN 48100:27End of game

11 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 75 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Burrow28/373003039.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Joe Mixon8455.602.3
Joe Burrow4256.313.6
Samaje Perine252.50-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ja'Marr Chase710132228%9.2
Tyler Boyd6666017%5.1
Tee Higgins6947025%-0.6
Joe Mixon4623117%2.1
Hayden Hurst332108%1.3
Samaje Perine221106%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Germaine Pratt390.000
Sam Hubbard430.501
Eli Apple330.000
B.J. Hill330.500
Jay Tufele240.000
Logan Wilson410.000
Chidobe Awuzie130.002
Jessie Bates130.000
Tre Flowers310.000
Vonn Bell210.000

New Orleans Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Andy Dalton17/321621013.3
Taysom Hill2/4160000.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Alvin Kamara19995.20-1.2
Mark Ingram9465.100.6
Rashid Shaheed14444.014.4
Taysom Hill5397.800.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tre'Quan Smith3343110%5.2
Juwan Johnson4641019%4.2
Marquez Callaway3736023%1.3
Alvin Kamara6925029%-3.9
Keith Kirkwood111403%1.8
Mark Ingram121106%1.5
Adam Trautman11803%0.5
Rashid Shaheed01003%-0.8
Kevin White01003%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Demario Davis722.000
Chris Harris700.001
Pete Werner600.000
Marcus Maye300.000
Paulson Adebo300.001
Cameron Jordan300.000
Tyrann Mathieu210.000
Zack Baun110.000
Bradley Roby110.000
Chase Hansen100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CIN -3
Closing total
42.5
CIN moneyline
-164
NO moneyline
+148

Bengals closed -3 and covered, winning by 4.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 56 — over by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
CIN 7 days · NO 7 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Dennis Allen