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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:43 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 16, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 6
It turned at Q4 2:10, 1st and 10, on Ja'Marr Chase — 34.1 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Cincinnati Bengals 30–26. Biggest swing: Q4 2:10, Bengals +34.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:10 · 1st and 10
Ja'Marr Chase
Bengals
(2:10) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 10, YAC 50
34.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Bengals won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Saints at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bengals won this one — 59% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Bengals at 5 chunk plays.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Bengals won this one — 6 of 10 on third down, against Saints at 8 of 17 on third down.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(2:10) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 10, YAC 50
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Ja'Marr Chase's 60-yard touchdown catch with 2:10 left in the 4th put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Ja'Marr Chase60-yd TD catch60-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrow · two-point no goodLead never changed again+630–2611 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Bengalscategory by categorySaints
Bengals ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 54 snaps at a 80% dropback rate against Saints’s 71 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 4, Saints 6.
Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CIN's pass rate over expected, +19.7 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 5.1 points clear of the next team along.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
CIN's play-action rate, 2.4%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 0.6 points clear of the next team along.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
CIN's early-down pass rate, 74.4%, is past their previous high of 62.7% in week 1 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
CIN's blitz rate sent turned over: 42.9% in week 5 against 13.5% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points. · −0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 29 pts
Over Expected room →Bengals19.7 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +11.7 vs their 8.0 pts, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+1.50× that swing) · 53 snaps
Saints-11.4 ptsright on their number · −4.6 vs their -6.8 pts, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 71 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 11% to 89%
Tendencies room →Bengals74.4%leaned — passed early · +12.6 vs their 61.9%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+1.36× that swing) · 43 early downs
Saints37.7%inside their normal wobble · −12.3 vs their 50.1%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 34%
Tendencies room →Bengals2.4%leaned — dropped back clean · −10.3 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Saints16.2%right on their number · +2.7 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24% to 68%
Fourth Down room →Bengals—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 23.3%.
Saints—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 14.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16% to 52%
Tendencies room →Bengals13.5%inside their normal wobble · −7.2 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Saints21.4%right on their number · +3.2 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 32%
Tendencies room →Bengals10.8%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.0 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Saints14.0%right on their number · +1.1 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
CIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 19.7 pts, 11.7 points above their season mean of 8.0 pts and 1.5 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · CIN
28/37, 300 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
9.8 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected
Passing · NO
17/32, 162 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
3.3 expected points added · -7.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Ja'Marr Chase banked 13.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe BurrowQB · Starter QB | 32.5 | +13.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/37, 300 yd, 3 TD · 4 car, 25 yd, 1 TD |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Alpha Receiver | 32.2 | +13.3 | 98% | 100% | 28% | 49% | 7/10, 132 yd, 2 TD |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Committee Back | 18.4 | −6.5 | 69% | 73% | 29% | 5% | 19 car, 99 yd · 6/9, 25 yd |
| Joe MixonRB · Committee Back | 16.8 | +2.9 | 72% | 70% | 17% | 0% | 8 car, 45 yd · 4/6, 23 yd, 1 TD |
| Tre'Quan SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.3 | +7.3 | 71% | 70% | 10% | 13% | 3/3, 43 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler BoydWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.6 | +3.1 | 96% | 98% | 17% | 18% | 6/6, 66 yd |
| Tee HigginsWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.7 | −3.3 | 86% | 91% | 25% | 28% | 6/9, 47 yd |
| Andy DaltonQB · Starter QB | 10.5 | −3.5 | 88% | — | 0% | — | 17/32, 162 yd, 1 TD |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.4 | +7.6 | 13% | 16% | 3% | 14% | 1 car, 44 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Featured Receiver | 8.1 | −0.8 | 78% | 84% | 19% | 13% | 4/6, 41 yd |
| Mark IngramRB | 6.7 | +0.1 | 33% | 32% | 6% | 0% | 9 car, 46 yd · 1/2, 11 yd |
| Marquez CallawayWR · Featured Receiver | 6.6 | −4.8 | 75% | 86% | 23% | 34% | 3/7, 36 yd |
| Hayden HurstTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | +1.1 | 70% | 74% | 8% | 6% | 3/3, 21 yd |
| Taysom HillQB | 4.5 | −1.4 | 21% | — | 0% | — | 2/4, 16 yd · 5 car, 39 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB | 3.6 | −0.3 | 25% | 23% | 6% | 0% | 2 car, 5 yd · 2/2, 11 yd |
| Keith KirkwoodWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | +0.5 | 71% | 57% | 3% | 5% | 1/1, 14 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.3 | 22% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Chris EvansRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Devin AsiasiTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Trent TaylorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kevin WhiteWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.2 | 17% | 30% | 3% | 16% | 0/1, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:10) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 10, YAC 50
Q4 2:10 · Bengals · 1st & 10 at CIN 40 · gained 60 · +5.12 EP · +39.9% win probability
160 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 174 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, manual charting on 141. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 75 yards from the CIN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Bengals0
Saints6Bengals0Saints7Bengals6Saints7Bengals7Saints7How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Bengals7Saints13Bengals7Saints14Bengals7Saints17Bengals13Saints17Bengals14Saints17Bengals14Saints20Bengals14Saints23Bengals20Saints23Bengals21Saints23Bengals21Saints26How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Bengals24Saints26How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Bengals30Saints26How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bengals at Saints, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 28/37 | 300 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +9.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 0 | +2.3 |
| Joe Burrow | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 1 | +3.6 |
| Samaje Perine |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 7 | 10 | 132 | 2 | 28% | +9.2 |
| Tyler Boyd | 6 | 6 | 66 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germaine Pratt | 3 | 9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Hubbard | 4 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Eli Apple |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 17/32 | 162 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3.3 |
| Taysom Hill | 2/4 | 16 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_06_CIN_NO
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bengals closed -3 and covered, winning by 4.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 56 — over by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 2.5 |
| 0 |
| −0.4 |
| +5.1 |
| Tee Higgins | 6 | 9 | 47 | 0 | 25% | −0.6 |
| Joe Mixon | 4 | 6 | 23 | 1 | 17% | +2.1 |
| Hayden Hurst | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 8% | +1.3 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 6% | −0.5 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| B.J. Hill | 3 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jay Tufele | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Wilson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chidobe Awuzie | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jessie Bates | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Flowers | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vonn Bell | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| +0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 19 | 99 | 5.2 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Mark Ingram | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 44 | 44.0 | 1 | +4.4 |
| Taysom Hill | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre'Quan Smith | 3 | 3 | 43 | 1 | 10% | +5.2 |
| Juwan Johnson | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 19% | +4.2 |
| Marquez Callaway | 3 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 23% | +1.3 |
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 9 | 25 | 0 | 29% | −3.9 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | +1.8 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 6% | +1.5 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Kevin White | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demario Davis | 7 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Harris | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pete Werner | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Maye | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paulson Adebo | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cameron Jordan | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zack Baun | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Roby | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Hansen | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
