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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:03 AM ET · 16 to play
2022 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 16, 2022 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
CowboysDallas17
BY 9final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia26
Dallas Cowboys 17 at Philadelphia Eagles 26. Final.
Eagles -6.5 ✓O 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 6
Philadelphia Eagles 26, Cowboys 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 14:45, 1st and 7, on Jake Ferguson — 8.8 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 14:45 · 1st and 7
Jake Ferguson
Cowboys
(14:45) 68-M.Farniok reported in as eligible. 10-C.Rush pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Eagles closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 9.
Philadelphia Eagles 26–17. Biggest swing: Q4 14:45, Cowboys +8.8% win probability on one snap.
8.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetEaglesQ1 0:08(:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on DAL-56-D.Fowler, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 10 - No Play.
4.5pts
A.J. BrownEaglesQ4 7:41(7:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to DAL 7 for 22 yards (11-M.Parsons).
5.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — no giveaways, against Cowboys at 3 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.15 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at -0.22 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — +0.16 expected points per carry, against Eagles at -0.09 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Eagles at 4 chunk plays.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Cowboys166 of 174 plays carry both curves
(14:45) 68-M.Farniok reported in as eligible. 10-C.Rush pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −8.8 for EaglesExpected points −1.60 for EaglesThe model had Cowboys 15 points higher than the market did.play 128
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 14:45PHI +9% win prob(14:45) 68-M.Farniok reported in as eligible. 10-C.Rush pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 7:41PHI +6% win prob(7:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to DAL 7 for 22 yards (11-M.Parsons).
1st · 0:08PHI +5% win prob(:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on DAL-56-D.Fowler, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 10 - No Play.
4th · 14:39PHI +4% win prob(14:39) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders right guard to PHI 38 for 13 yards (2-J.Lewis; 28-M.Hooker).
4th · 10:30PHI +4% win prob(10:30) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell left guard to DAL 40 for 5 yards (56-D.Fowler).
2nd · 14:55DAL +4% win prob(14:55) 68-M.Farniok reported in as eligible. 10-C.Rush pass deep middle intended for 13-M.Gallup INTERCEPTED by 23-C.Gardner-Johnson (24-J.Bradberry) at DAL 44. 23-C.Gardner-Johnson to DAL 44 for no gain (13-M.Gallup).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Miles Sanders's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 15:00 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd15:00Miles Sanders·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
Cowboys ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Cowboys: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.02Eagles: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.22Cowboys: −0.22 expected points added per play
+0.15Eagles: +0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.16Cowboys: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.09Eagles: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 64 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Eagles’s 67 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 3, Eagles 4.
NoteCowboys outgained Eagles 315-270 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PHI's play-action rate, 56.7%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 12.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 31.8% in week 1.
2.7 times their own weekly swing above their number.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.3 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PHI's blitz rate sent, 5.3%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 2.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 11.9% in week 5.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points.
DAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 25.0% in week 5 against 58.5% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · −3.4 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Eagles10.5%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.2 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NotePHI's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 56.7%, 38.9 points above their season mean of 17.8% and 2.7 times their own 14.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Farniok reported−8% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(14:55) 68-M.Farniok reported in as eligible. 10-C.Rush pass deep middle intended for 13-M.Gallup INTERCEPTED by 23-C.Gardner-Johnson (24-J.Bradberry) at DAL 44. 23-C.Gardner-Johnson to DAL 44 for no gain (13-M.Gallup).
Q2 14:55 · Cowboys · 1st & 10 at DAL 25 · gained nothing · -3.95 EP · −8.1% win probability
164 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 93 yards from the DAL 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
42%
Yards
583
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.0760%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.0649%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.1743%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.2457%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.120%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 16 to the Cowboys 25
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the Eagles 44
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 24 to the Cowboys 41
The period ended16 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Cowboys 10
2nd quarter52 plays
Cowboys0Eagles6
Cowboys0Eagles7
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Cowboys0Eagles13
Cowboys0Eagles14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the Cowboys 14
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 34
Cowboys0Eagles17
Field goal4 plays, from the Cowboys 34 to the Cowboys 30
Intercepted6 plays, from the Cowboys 9 to the Cowboys 26
Cowboys0Eagles20
Field goal11 plays, from the Cowboys 46 to the Cowboys 16
Cowboys3Eagles20
Field goal11 plays, from the Eagles 41 to the Eagles 12
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 40
Cowboys9Eagles20
Cowboys10Eagles20
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cowboys 21 to the Eagles 14
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Eagles 48
The period ended16 plays, from the Cowboys 7 to the Eagles 19
4th quarter48 plays
Cowboys16Eagles20
Cowboys17Eagles20
Touchdown3 plays, from the Eagles 12 to the Eagles 7
Cowboys17Eagles26
Touchdown15 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cowboys 7
Intercepted5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 40
The period ended7 plays, from the Eagles 47 to the Cowboys 34
No good11 plays, from the Cowboys 12 to the Eagles 41
The period ended7 plays, from the Eagles 49 to the Cowboys 27
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
